What next? Huh? WHAT NEXT?
Washington brings NARCO-TERRORISM charges against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
Thursday, March 26
Food nationalism? Virus causes more outbreaks of common sense
However, from the following news report, Chatham House is not a fan of common sense:
Before there can be workable cooperation there must be common sense. Common sense is that countries sell produce they can spare. In many countries, common sense, not to mention baseline self-preservation, took a back seat as governments abused the global trade system by using food exports to scare up enough foreign exchange to help them chase a lifestyle they couldn't afford. Now a lowly virus is forcing governments to acknowledge reality.
Below is the report from Bloomberg about the first signs of what the reporters term food nationalism touched off by the COVD19 crisis. One note about a statement in the report, which I believe is incorrect. My recollection is that Russia did not ban wheat exports in 2010 so their own people had enough wheat. They instituted the ban at the request of major grain trading houses that were going to go broke because they couldn't fulfill the huge number of wheat contracts when a surprise heat wave decimated wheat crops in Russia, Ukraine -- and one other nearby country if I recall. The ban allowed the trading houses to declare force majeure. I also seem to recall that after the 2010 ban went into effect, Russia quietly made some wheat shipments to countries in the most need. In any case the Russian government's ban, and large shipments from American wheat farmers, saved the day in 2010.
Countries are starting to hoard food, threatening global trade
By Isis Almeida and Agnieszka de Sousa
March 24, 2020
Bloomberg via MSN
It’s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples. Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the conoravirus pandemic.
Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest shippers of wheat flour, banned exports of that product along with others, including carrots, sugar and potatoes. Serbia has stopped the flow of its sunflower oil and other goods. Russia is leaving the door open to shipment bans and said it’s assessing the situation weekly.
To be perfectly clear, there have been just a handful of moves and no sure signs that much more is on the horizon. Still, what’s been happening has raised a question: Is this the start of a wave of food nationalism that will further disrupt supply chains and trade flows?
“We’re starting to see this happening already -- and all we can see is that the lockdown is going to get worse,” said Tim Benton, research director in emerging risks at think tank Chatham House in London.
Though food supplies are ample, logistical hurdles are making it harder to get products where they need to be as the coronavirus unleashes unprecedented measures, panic buying and the threat of labor crunches.
Consumers across the globe are still loading their pantries -- and the economic fallout from the virus is just starting. The specter of more trade restrictions is stirring memories of how protectionism can often end up causing more harm than good. That adage rings especially true now as the moves would be driven by anxiety and not made in response to crop failures or other supply problems.
[Related video: Food supply is not where it's needed]
As it is, many governments have employed extreme measures, setting curfews and limits on crowds or even on people venturing out for anything but to acquire essentials. That could spill over to food policy, said Ann Berg, an independent consultant and veteran agricultural trader who started her career at Louis Dreyfus Co. in 1974. “You could see wartime rationing, price controls and domestic stockpiling,” she said.
Some nations are adding to their strategic reserves. China, the biggest rice grower and consumer, pledged to buy more than ever before from its domestic harvest, even though the government already holds massive stockpiles of rice and wheat, enough for one year of consumption.
Key wheat importers including Algeria and Turkey have also issued new tenders, and Morocco said a suspension on wheat-import duties would last through mid-June.
As governments take nationalistic approaches, they risk disrupting an international system that has become increasingly interconnected in recent decades.
Kazakhstan had already stopped exports of other food staples, like buckwheat and onions, before the move this week to cut off wheat-flour shipments. That latest action was a much bigger step, with the potential to affect companies around the world that rely on the supplies to make bread.
For some commodities, a handful of countries, or even fewer, make up the bulk of exportable supplies. Disruptions to those shipments would have major global ramifications. Take, for example, Russia, which has emerged as the world’s top wheat exporter and a key supplier to North Africa.
“If governments are not working collectively and cooperatively to ensure there is a global supply, if they’re just putting their nations first, you can end up in a situation where things get worse,” said Benton of Chatham House.
He warned that frenzied shopping coupled with protectionist policies could eventually lead to higher food prices -- a cycle that could end up perpetuating itself.
“If you’re panic buying on the market for next year’s harvest, then prices will go up, and as prices go up, policy makers will panic more,” he said.
And higher grocery bills can have major ramifications. Bread costs have a long history of kick-starting unrest and political instability. During the food price spikes of 2011 and 2008, there were food riots in more than 30 nations across Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
[Pundita note: Why were there bread riots? Take Egypt -- they'd converted fields for wheat growing to cotton fields in the attempt scare up more foreign exchange. ]
Without the food supply, societies just totally break,” Benton said.
[Chart - grocery bills]
Unlike previous periods of rampant food inflation, global inventories of staple crops like corn, wheat, soybeans and rice are plentiful, said Dan Kowalski, vice president of research at CoBank, a $145 billion lender to the agriculture industry, adding he doesn’t expect “dramatic” gains for prices now.
While the spikes of the last decade were initially caused by climate problems for crops, policies exacerbated the consequences. In 2010, Russia experienced a record heat wave that damaged the wheat crop. The government responded by banning exports to make sure domestic consumers had enough.
The United Nations’ measure of global food prices reached a record high by February 2011.
“Given the problem that we are facing now, it’s not the moment to put these types of policies into place,” said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. “On the contrary, it’s the moment to cooperate and coordinate.”
Read More on Food Issues in Virus Era:
[...]
[END REPORT]
“If governments are not working collectively and cooperatively to ensure there is a global supply, if they’re just putting their nations first, you can end up in a situation where things get worse.”I can't think of much worse than governments not putting their own citizens first when it comes to food supplies.
Before there can be workable cooperation there must be common sense. Common sense is that countries sell produce they can spare. In many countries, common sense, not to mention baseline self-preservation, took a back seat as governments abused the global trade system by using food exports to scare up enough foreign exchange to help them chase a lifestyle they couldn't afford. Now a lowly virus is forcing governments to acknowledge reality.
Below is the report from Bloomberg about the first signs of what the reporters term food nationalism touched off by the COVD19 crisis. One note about a statement in the report, which I believe is incorrect. My recollection is that Russia did not ban wheat exports in 2010 so their own people had enough wheat. They instituted the ban at the request of major grain trading houses that were going to go broke because they couldn't fulfill the huge number of wheat contracts when a surprise heat wave decimated wheat crops in Russia, Ukraine -- and one other nearby country if I recall. The ban allowed the trading houses to declare force majeure. I also seem to recall that after the 2010 ban went into effect, Russia quietly made some wheat shipments to countries in the most need. In any case the Russian government's ban, and large shipments from American wheat farmers, saved the day in 2010.
Countries are starting to hoard food, threatening global trade
By Isis Almeida and Agnieszka de Sousa
March 24, 2020
Bloomberg via MSN
It’s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples. Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the conoravirus pandemic.
Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest shippers of wheat flour, banned exports of that product along with others, including carrots, sugar and potatoes. Serbia has stopped the flow of its sunflower oil and other goods. Russia is leaving the door open to shipment bans and said it’s assessing the situation weekly.
To be perfectly clear, there have been just a handful of moves and no sure signs that much more is on the horizon. Still, what’s been happening has raised a question: Is this the start of a wave of food nationalism that will further disrupt supply chains and trade flows?
“We’re starting to see this happening already -- and all we can see is that the lockdown is going to get worse,” said Tim Benton, research director in emerging risks at think tank Chatham House in London.
Though food supplies are ample, logistical hurdles are making it harder to get products where they need to be as the coronavirus unleashes unprecedented measures, panic buying and the threat of labor crunches.
Consumers across the globe are still loading their pantries -- and the economic fallout from the virus is just starting. The specter of more trade restrictions is stirring memories of how protectionism can often end up causing more harm than good. That adage rings especially true now as the moves would be driven by anxiety and not made in response to crop failures or other supply problems.
[Related video: Food supply is not where it's needed]
As it is, many governments have employed extreme measures, setting curfews and limits on crowds or even on people venturing out for anything but to acquire essentials. That could spill over to food policy, said Ann Berg, an independent consultant and veteran agricultural trader who started her career at Louis Dreyfus Co. in 1974. “You could see wartime rationing, price controls and domestic stockpiling,” she said.
Some nations are adding to their strategic reserves. China, the biggest rice grower and consumer, pledged to buy more than ever before from its domestic harvest, even though the government already holds massive stockpiles of rice and wheat, enough for one year of consumption.
Key wheat importers including Algeria and Turkey have also issued new tenders, and Morocco said a suspension on wheat-import duties would last through mid-June.
As governments take nationalistic approaches, they risk disrupting an international system that has become increasingly interconnected in recent decades.
Kazakhstan had already stopped exports of other food staples, like buckwheat and onions, before the move this week to cut off wheat-flour shipments. That latest action was a much bigger step, with the potential to affect companies around the world that rely on the supplies to make bread.
For some commodities, a handful of countries, or even fewer, make up the bulk of exportable supplies. Disruptions to those shipments would have major global ramifications. Take, for example, Russia, which has emerged as the world’s top wheat exporter and a key supplier to North Africa.
“If governments are not working collectively and cooperatively to ensure there is a global supply, if they’re just putting their nations first, you can end up in a situation where things get worse,” said Benton of Chatham House.
He warned that frenzied shopping coupled with protectionist policies could eventually lead to higher food prices -- a cycle that could end up perpetuating itself.
“If you’re panic buying on the market for next year’s harvest, then prices will go up, and as prices go up, policy makers will panic more,” he said.
And higher grocery bills can have major ramifications. Bread costs have a long history of kick-starting unrest and political instability. During the food price spikes of 2011 and 2008, there were food riots in more than 30 nations across Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
[Pundita note: Why were there bread riots? Take Egypt -- they'd converted fields for wheat growing to cotton fields in the attempt scare up more foreign exchange. ]
Without the food supply, societies just totally break,” Benton said.
[Chart - grocery bills]
Unlike previous periods of rampant food inflation, global inventories of staple crops like corn, wheat, soybeans and rice are plentiful, said Dan Kowalski, vice president of research at CoBank, a $145 billion lender to the agriculture industry, adding he doesn’t expect “dramatic” gains for prices now.
While the spikes of the last decade were initially caused by climate problems for crops, policies exacerbated the consequences. In 2010, Russia experienced a record heat wave that damaged the wheat crop. The government responded by banning exports to make sure domestic consumers had enough.
The United Nations’ measure of global food prices reached a record high by February 2011.
“Given the problem that we are facing now, it’s not the moment to put these types of policies into place,” said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. “On the contrary, it’s the moment to cooperate and coordinate.”
Read More on Food Issues in Virus Era:
[...]
[END REPORT]
Wednesday, March 25
"Unfortunate Adventures of Turkish Army in Idlib"
"The open secret is that Turkish forces have become the target of attacks by groups that Ankara has been supporting with its opposition to anti-terrorist operations of the Syrian Army."
SouthFront, today [visit site for video version of report]:
SouthFront, today [visit site for video version of report]:
Two Turkish soldiers were injured and two vehicles damaged in Syria’s southern Idlib on March 24. Their military convoy was targeted by a roadside bomb explosion near the village of Sfuhun. Turkish troops based at the al-Barah observation post were conducting a patrol along the contact line between the Syrian Army and Idlib armed groups.
This became the second attack on Turkish forces in Greater Idlib in less than 7 days. On March 19, two Turkish soldiers were killed and several others injured, when an IED exploded near their convoy near the village of Muhamabal.
Pro-militant propaganda claims that the attacks were carried out by the ‘criminal Assad regime’ in an attempt to destabilize the situation. Turkish media outlets pay scant attention to the situation reporting about some unidentified radicals.
The open secret is that Turkish forces have become the target of attacks by groups that Ankara has been supporting with its opposition of the anti-terrorist operations of the Syrian Army. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Houras al-Din, the Turkistan Islamic Party and similar organizations see the creation of a buffer zone along the M4 as a grave threat to their interests and survival. Therefore they are sabotaging the deal by blocking the highway and fuelling military tensions in the region. In the near future, they may even stage a large false-flag attack on Turkish forces near the contact line planning to blame the ‘Assad regime’ for it and thus relaunch military hostilities between the Turkish Army and the Syrian Armed Forces.
Violations of the ceasefire regime by Idlib radicals are also increasing. Recently, ATGM, mortar attacks and artillery shelling were reported near Kafr Nubl, Saraqib, Kansafra and Kabinah. Turkish-backed groups claim that this week they destroyed a Syrian Army battle tank and bulldozer north of Saraqib.
Members of Turkish-backed Faylaq al-Madj raided the village of Sukariya, near the town of Tell Abyad, in northeastern Syria. They attacked locals wounding dozens of them and looting their property. Earlier in March, members of Turkish-backed militant groups protested in the area of Operation Peace Spring because there had been a significant delay of salaries from Ankara. Turkish sources claim that Turkey is actively working to put an end to looting and attacks on locals. Nonetheless, such incidents continue to erupt on a regular basis.
Several explosions were reported near positions of the Syrian Army and Iranian-backed forces at al-Bukamal. Local sources claim that they were a result of actions by ISIS cells. Over the past months, al-Bukamal became a target of dozens of Israeli and US strikes. ISIS terrorists are likely trying to exploit this.
[END REPORT]
Death marker? In China 21m cell phone accounts cancelled in past 3 months
“At present, we don’t know the details of the data. If only 10 percent of the cell phone accounts were closed because the users died because of the CCP virus, the death toll would be two million,” Tang concluded.
The following report was published by The Epoch Times on March 22. ET is so against China's ruling Communist party they even refer to the COVD-19 virus as the "CCP virus." It's the same for NTD, which was founded by the Falun Gong, and which provides a short video news report on the same topic.
But in both cases, the reporters work with published data. Because a cell phone is a requirement for Chinese citizens, at the least the large number of service cancellations over a short period suggest the publicly available figures for the death toll from COVD-19 in China could be understated -- by how much would be the question. Both NTD and ET try to plumb the numbers.
The Closing of 21 Million Cell Phone Accounts in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll
By Nicole Hao
Beijing claimed that the health code is for preventing the spread of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as novel coronavirus.
21 Million Cell Phone Accounts Close
The following report was published by The Epoch Times on March 22. ET is so against China's ruling Communist party they even refer to the COVD-19 virus as the "CCP virus." It's the same for NTD, which was founded by the Falun Gong, and which provides a short video news report on the same topic.
But in both cases, the reporters work with published data. Because a cell phone is a requirement for Chinese citizens, at the least the large number of service cancellations over a short period suggest the publicly available figures for the death toll from COVD-19 in China could be understated -- by how much would be the question. Both NTD and ET try to plumb the numbers.
The Closing of 21 Million Cell Phone Accounts in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll
By Nicole Hao
March 22, 2020
The Epoch Times via NTD
[NTD video report]
Over 21 million cell phone accounts in China were canceled in the past three months while 840,000 landlines were closed, Beijing authorities announced on March 19. Deaths due to the CCP virus may have contributed to the number of account closings.
Cell phones are an indispensable part of life in China.
“The digitization level is very high in China. People can’t survive without a cell phone,” Tang Jingyuan, a U.S.-based China Affairs commentator told The Epoch Times on March 21. “Dealing with the government for pensions and social security, buying train tickets, shopping… no matter what people want to do, they are required to use cell phones.”
“The Chinese regime requires all Chinese use their cell phones to generate a health code. Only with a green health code are Chinese allowed to move in China now,” Tang said. “It’s impossible for a person to cancel his cell phone.”
China introduced mandatory facial scans on Dec. 1, 2019 to confirm the identity of the person who registered the phone. As early as Sept. 1, 2010, China required all cell phone users to register the phone with their real identification (ID), by which the state can control people’s speech via its large-scale monitoring system.
Furthermore, Chinese people have to bundle their bank accounts and social security account with their cell phone because all these service’s Apps can detect the phone’s SIM card and then check with the state’s database to make sure the number belongs to the person.
Beijing first launched cell phone-based health codes on March 10. All people in China have to install a cell phone app and register their personal health information. Then the app can generate a QR code, which is possible in three colors, to classify people’s health level. Red means the person has an infectious disease. Yellow means the person might have an infectious disease. Green means the person doesn’t have an infectious disease.
21 Million Cell Phone Accounts Close
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced the quantities of phone users in each province in February on March 19. Compared with the previous announcement, which was released on Dec. 18, 2019 for the data in November 2019, both cell phone users and landline users dropped dramatically. In the same period the year before, the number of accounts increased.
The number of cell phone users decreased from 1.600957 billion to 1.579927 billion, which is 21.03 million less. Landline users dropped from 190.83 million to 189.99 million, which is 0.84 million less.
In February 2019, the number increased. According to MIIT’s announcements on March 26, 2019 and Dec. 20, 2018, the cell phone users increased in February 2019 from 1.5591 billion to 1.5835 billion, which is 24.37 million more. The landline users increased from 183.477 million to 190.118 million, which is 6.641 million more.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s population at the end of 2019 was 4.67 million larger than 2018, and reached 1.40005 billion.
The 2020 decrease in landline users may be due to the nationwide quarantine in February, during which small businesses were shut down. But the decrease in cell phone users can’t be explained in this way.
According to the operation data of all three Chinese cell phone carriers, cell phone accounts increased in December 2019, but dropped steeply in 2020.
China Mobile is the largest carrier, and holds about 60 percent of the Chinese cell phone market. It reported that it lost 7.254 million cell phone accounts in February, and 0.862 million in January. But in Dec. 2019, it gained 3.732 million more users.
China Mobile’s performance in early 2019 was positive. It had 2.411 million more users in January 2019, and 1.091 million more users in February 2019.
China Telecom is the second largest carrier, and holds about 21 percent of the market. It lost 5.6 million users in February 2020, and lost 0.43 million users in January 2020.
In 2019, it gained 1.18 million users in December, 2.96 million in February, and 4.26 million in January.
China Unicom, which hasn’t yet published the data for February, shares the same experience as the other two telecoms in January 2020 and in early 2019. The company lost 1.186 million users in January 2020, but gained 1.962 million users in February 2019 and 2.763 million users in January 2019.
China allows each adult to apply for at most five cell phone numbers. Since Feb. 10, the majority of Chinese students have taken online classes with a cell phone number due to their schools being ordered to keep closed. These students’ accounts are under their parents’ names, which means some patients needed to open a new cell phone account in February.
Analyzing the Numbers
The big question is whether the dramatic drop in cell phone accounts reflects the account closings of those who have died due to the CCP virus.
“It’s possible that some migrant workers had two cell phone numbers before. One is from their hometown, and the other is from the city they work in. In February, they might close the number in the city they work in because they couldn’t go there,” Tang said. Typically, migrant workers would have gone to their home city for the Chinese New Year in January, and then travel restrictions would have prevented their returning to the city where they held a job.
However, because there is a basic monthly fee to hold a cell phone account in China, the majority of migrant workers—the lowest income group—likely only have one cell phone account.
The big question is whether the dramatic drop in cell phone accounts reflects the account closings of those who have died due to the CCP virus.
“It’s possible that some migrant workers had two cell phone numbers before. One is from their hometown, and the other is from the city they work in. In February, they might close the number in the city they work in because they couldn’t go there,” Tang said. Typically, migrant workers would have gone to their home city for the Chinese New Year in January, and then travel restrictions would have prevented their returning to the city where they held a job.
However, because there is a basic monthly fee to hold a cell phone account in China, the majority of migrant workers—the lowest income group—likely only have one cell phone account.
Chinese National Bureau of Statistics announced on April 29, 2019 that China has 288.36 million migrant workers.
On March 17, Meng Wei, spokesman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, said at the monthly press conference in Beijing that except Hubei, all provinces reported that more than 90 percent of their businesses resumed operations. In Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangxi, and Chongqing, almost all businesses resumed production.
If both the number of migrant workers and the level of employment are accurate, more than 90 percent of migrant workers have gone back to work.
The economic dislocation caused by shutdowns in China may have also led some people who have an extra cell phone to cancel it. With business poor or stopped, they may not want to carry the extra expense.
“At present, we don’t know the details of the data. If only 10 percent of the cell phone accounts were closed because the users died because of the CCP virus, the death toll would be two million,” Tang concluded.
The reported death toll in China has not matched what can otherwise be known about the situation there.
A comparison with Italy suggests the death toll is significantly underreported. Italy adopted similar measures that the Chinese regime used in China. The CCP virus death toll in Italy of 4,825 translates to a death rate of 9 percent. In China, with a much larger population exposed to the virus, the reported death toll of 3,265 results in a death rate of 4 percent, less than half that reported in Italy.
Activities in the CCP virus epicenter of Hubei province seem to contradict the reported death toll in China. The seven funeral homes in Wuhan, China were reported to be burning bodies 24 hours a day, 7 days a week in late January. China also has used 40 mobile cremators, each capable of burning 5 tons of medical waste and bodies a day, in Hubei Province since Feb. 16.
Lacking data, the CCP virus’ death toll in China is a mystery. The cancellation of 21 million cell phones provides a data point that suggest the real number may be far higher than the official number.
The Epoch Times refers to the novel coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, as the CCP virus because the Chinese Communist Party’s coverup and mismanagement allowed the virus to spread throughout China and create a global pandemic.
[END REPORT]
Tuesday, March 24
Putin dons hazmat suit to visit COVD19 sufferers while other heads of state yammer at the public
As for Francis the Pretender telling priests to get out there and tend those stricken with COVD19 -- why doesn't he don a hazmat suit and visit the sick instead of holing up in the Vatican? Nevermind; I'm just blowing off steam.
********
Modi orders a billion Indians to stay home for three weeks
Day 1 of the Lockdown: City Indians bang pots and pans from their balconies in support of frontline health workers
REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas
Um -- I think somehow this might not work very well despite initial enthusiasm lol Pundita don't laugh it's not funny. How does he plan to enforce the edict, for starters? And it's counterproductive in that taking that many people out of the work force for that many days would be a body blow to Indian society. It seems to me that Modi is not so much thinking as reacting. But we'll see.
Anyhow:
Um -- I think somehow this might not work very well despite initial enthusiasm lol Pundita don't laugh it's not funny. How does he plan to enforce the edict, for starters? And it's counterproductive in that taking that many people out of the work force for that many days would be a body blow to Indian society. It seems to me that Modi is not so much thinking as reacting. But we'll see.
Anyhow:
“From 12 midnight today, the entire country will be in lockdown, total lockdown,” Modi said in a television address to the 1.3 billion people in the world’s second-most populous nation.
“To save India, to save its every citizen, you, your family … every street, every neighborhood is being put under lockdown,” he added in the strictest stay-at-home order yet in the world’s fight against the deadly bug.
He added ominously that if the country failed to manage the crisis in the next 21 days, it would be set back by 21 years.
[...]
India has lagged behind other countries in the number of [COVD19 infections, but there has been a sharp spike in recent days to 519 cases, including 10 deaths, officials said.
The country has already banned flights from abroad for a week from Sunday — and grounded domestic flights and shut ports.
Indian Railways, which carries more than 20 million passengers daily, has canceled all services except suburban and freight trains.********
The number of deaths from the coronavirus is not the biggest issue
The biggest issue is that a large complex urbanized society cannot function if many of the people who make it function are out sick at the same time.
So this is not just about police, military and firefighters or health care workers; think of the people who hourly monitor a city's power grid and water supply. Think of ambulance drivers and bus drivers and people who order and oversee food and medical supply distribution. Think of people who fill medical prescriptions. Think of garbage collectors. And so on.
We are a long way from the day that robots can fill all the critical functions that we take for granted. Until the day arrives, critically important employees with all kinds of illnesses get themselves to work no matter what. This happens every year during flu season. But if you add a new virus that can put people out of commission for more than a week during the flu season, this is a severe test of modern civilization.
********
So this is not just about police, military and firefighters or health care workers; think of the people who hourly monitor a city's power grid and water supply. Think of ambulance drivers and bus drivers and people who order and oversee food and medical supply distribution. Think of people who fill medical prescriptions. Think of garbage collectors. And so on.
We are a long way from the day that robots can fill all the critical functions that we take for granted. Until the day arrives, critically important employees with all kinds of illnesses get themselves to work no matter what. This happens every year during flu season. But if you add a new virus that can put people out of commission for more than a week during the flu season, this is a severe test of modern civilization.
********
“We cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected.”
The above quote is from Dr Teddy, aka Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director of the World Health Organization, who also observed in the same breath, “You cannot fight a fire blindfolded.” That's right. We have only the wildest guesses about how many have already contracted the virus and died from it up to this point. That's partly because COVD-19 is sort of the Carlos Hathcock of viruses.
USMC Gunnery Sergeant Hathcock was one of the greatest snipers who ever lived. Once, he inched along on his stomach for three days across 2000m of open field to get into firing range against a North Vietnamese general. It was an impossible feat, but not only did he kill the mark with one shot, he got away undetected.
That's COVID-19. They'd swipe the throat, then pronounce the person free of the virus. But in many cases the virus had already moved out of the throat into the lungs. And that's when they were on the alert, looking for the virus; before that, health agencies never knew what hit them. Well, in most cases it looked like the annual flu, and it quacked like annual flu.
Dr Teddy's quotes are mentioned in an Associated Press report today, which found that the CDC screwed up. This is news? They also screwed up with the response to the 2009 Swine Flu virus. But that's the other part of COVD-19's success at taking down so many marks undetected: health agency screw-ups. It's not just the CDC; everybody screwed up if it can be called that Even China's Ministry of Health, was caught flat-footed, despite the fancy biosurveillance they set up after the SARS epidemic to detect an outbreak of something strange. But there was nothing strange -- not until an unusually large number of people in a single area fell ill around the same time from a flu-associated pneumonia.
Testing blunders crippled US response as coronavirus spread
By MICHAEL BIESECKER, MIKE STOBBE and MATTHEW PERRONEMarch 24, 2020The Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — A series of missteps at the nation’s top public health agency caused a critical shortage of reliable laboratory tests for the coronavirus, hobbling the federal response as the pandemic spread across the country like wildfire, an Associated Press review found.
President Donald Trump assured Americans early this month that the COVID-19 test developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is “perfect” and that “anyone who wants a test can get a test.” But more than two months after the first U.S. case of the new disease was confirmed, many people still cannot get tested.
[...]
The Department of Health and Human Services, which includes the CDC, has begun an internal review to assess its own mistakes. But outside observers and federal health officials have pointed to four primary issues that together hampered the national response — the early decision not to use the test adopted by the World Health Organization, flaws with the more complex test developed by the CDC, government guidelines restricting who could be tested and delays in engaging the private sector to ramp up testing capacity.
[...]There's plenty more in the AP report. But Dr Teddy nailed it. Even WHO's test couldn't catch any more than a fraction of infections. You can't test what you can't detect -- not unless you set up more elaborate tests than throat swabs, and such tests can't be done on a mass basis.
The good news, of sorts, is that there are now so many known cases that patterns of symptoms are being detected -- sudden onset of insomnia and/or loss of smell and diminution of taste. These are warnings that the person could well be infected and warrants more than a throat swab.
********
Monday, March 23
"Coronavirus Now" - Boston Globe's stats, big news reports
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MoA comment section - some comments re the virus I found interesting.
Comments in response to this post today by Moon of Alabama's Bernhard
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/coronavirus-how-to-lift-lockdowns-and-why-we-should-all-wear-masks.html#comments
Where are the burqas when we need them?
Posted by: JohnH | Mar 23 2020 19:33 utc | 30
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/coronavirus-how-to-lift-lockdowns-and-why-we-should-all-wear-masks.html#comments
No, China didn’t cover up the Covid-19 outbreak: An analysis
https://asia-review.com/2020/03/20/no-china-didnt-cover-up-the-covid-19-outbreak/
https://asia-review.com/2020/03/20/no-china-didnt-cover-up-the-covid-19-outbreak/
The above article is a concise and clear summary of the Wuhan timeline that debunks the idea that the Chinese govt initially covered up the outbreak. That disinformation is propagated by the NYT and US media.
Posted by: occupatio | Mar 23 2020 18:33 utc | 12
ir pollution Northern Italy - ESA
Posted by: Hmpf | Mar 23 2020 18:34 utc | 13
I am not a doctor either, a couple of things I am taking, both are zinc ionophores like cloroquine thus helping zinc enter cells and interfering with RNA virus replication
Quercetin
Green tea supplement which contains EGCG
There is a good video on the possible pros and cons of NSAIDS like ibuprofen in COVID-19 treatment, the short answer there is not enough data. The precautionary principle says don't take it as we don't know.
Where are the burqas when we need them?
Posted by: JohnH | Mar 23 2020 19:33 utc | 30
B, you quote an Italian doctor who says:
They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China.
They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China.
That starting time of November matches the results of an analysis of the corona virus's gene sequence:
, a molecular dating estimate based on the SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences indicates an origin in November.
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-origins-genome-analysis-suggests-two-viruses-may-have-combined-134059
, a molecular dating estimate based on the SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences indicates an origin in November.
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-origins-genome-analysis-suggests-two-viruses-may-have-combined-134059
Maybe the virus originated in Lombardy and moved to China, instead of in the opposite direction as has been assumed? Or maybe it moved from China to Lombardy and back again?
Posted by: Brendan | Mar 23 2020 19:51 utc | 38
I'm a doctor. The protocol blues26 is taking is very good. A lot of studies made in Wuhan indicate IV C vitamin is the best option in case you catch the disease.
I'm in the unfortunate Brasil ( the worst government in the entire world!) - any of my patients, some older them 75, got the disease; only mild forms of influenza.
I'm in the unfortunate Brasil ( the worst government in the entire world!) - any of my patients, some older them 75, got the disease; only mild forms of influenza.
Posted by: Malú Costa | Mar 23 2020 19:53 utc | 40
I am now taking:
~6,000IU Vitamin D3 [Pundita note: I think 5,000/day is safer]
30mg Zinc Gluconate
500mg Vitamin C, twice a day (this is a low amount) [yes, need higher amt.]
1,000mcg Vitamin K2
250mg Niacinamide (not just 'niacin')
1 'One-A-Day' high quality vitamin combo
30mg Zinc Gluconate
500mg Vitamin C, twice a day (this is a low amount) [yes, need higher amt.]
1,000mcg Vitamin K2
250mg Niacinamide (not just 'niacin')
1 'One-A-Day' high quality vitamin combo
I'm no doctor, but that is what I am taking.
// ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
// ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There appears to be rather strong reason to believe that (soon-prior use of?) the pain medicine ibuprofen can actually cause the coronavirus pathology (which I say should be referred to as 'CVP19' not 'VD'!) to be more severe. This also applies to SOME medicines used for hypertension and for some cases of diabetes (type 1 and type 2). Source:
The Lancet
(Search down to 'ibuprofen'.)
The Lancet
(Search down to 'ibuprofen'.)
Any soap or detergent is sufficient concentration will destroy lipid components which the coronavirus requires in its envelope (this will destroy it). So nothing special is normally needed. You can wash hands with a bar of soap if you lather up reasonably well, and leave the soap on for about 20 seconds.
You 'PROBABLY' can disinfect face masks by dipping them in a bowl of 3/4ths water and 1/4th not-too-smelly (maybe lemon) dish detergent. Then rinse it off with water. You can re-use the bowl of water and detergent.
'Ask your doctor', as I am definitely not an expert in virus control!
@Blue Dotterel | Mar 23 2020 18:56 utc | 25
I would be sceptical of anything published by politically compromised US institutions. They are not reliable. If the US could corrupt the OPCW, image how easily they could corrupt their own institutions if it was to their benefit. And we know that they are using this "crisis" to "bail out" their major corporations and banks - again. The virus may be real, but so are the sharks causing the excessive panic. Face it. The US is a cesspool of lies and corruption from Boeing to Pompeo.
CDC's numbers may seem exaggerated: 160 million to 214 million Americans infected by Covid-19; 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths. I would be somewhat skeptical of them if they didn't broadly agree with Germany's numbers.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has admitted that 60-70% of her country could become infected by the coronavirus. If you take 60 percent of the US's population, that would be roughly 200 million infected Americans, right in the CDC's ballpark.
Posted by: Cyril | Mar 23 2020 19:52 utc | 39
Dear B,
There are online articles that refer to high levels of air pollution in the Po River valley region in northern Italy. This area includes Lombardia province in its western and central parts, and Veneto in its east. There may be parts of other Italian provinces included in this physical region. Industry and agriculture along with a large population are concentrated in this region.
Perhaps northern Italian govts have enacted laws regulating industrial and other emissions that have improved air quality in recent years. But years of breathing polluted air over past decades are sure to have done some damage to people's lungs. Older people who then did not have the benefit of societal awareness of the long-term damaging effects of air pollution are the people suffering now from COVID-19.
Milan is or maybe was notorious for frequent temperature inversions in which cold air is trapped under warm air over a city and cannot rise. Smoke particles and other pollutants are stuck in the cold air and can cause severe breathing problems for people.
Northern Italy also has a history of industrial accidents like the 1976 Seveso incident in which dioxin gas leaked into the air. Seveso is to the NW of Milan and I believe is not far from the city. People living in the town then are at increased risk of developing cancers later in life. A person with latent cancer s/he is unaware of, or with cancer in remission, must be very vulnerable to COVID-19. If memory serves correctly, it was in the 1990s that Italy began to be serious in passing and enforcing environmental regulations and standards.
All this information can be researched online, people do not have to be experts on Italian society and geography to find it.
Posted by: Jen | Mar 23 2020 19:53 utc | 41
Italian virologists worried,
Coronavirus, the virologist Capua:"in Lombardy it circulates in a strange way"
Too many cases in the region. The virologist Ilaria Capua warns: "There the coronavirus circulates abnormally and we don't know why"
The expert, in January, when the coronavirus seemed only a distant threat relegated to the city of Wuhan and China, was among the first members of the scientific community in January to understand the extent of the problem. And today, analyzing the consequences and the (very high) costs of this global health and economic emergency, it stresses the Lombard question. These are his words in this regard: "In the face of the catastrophe currently taking place in Lombardy, with its very high rates of contagion and lethality compared to other outbreaks , the question is urgently required. What happened in Codogno, in Bergamo , in Brescia? At this stage we can only make assumptions ... ".
In short, hypothesis. Because, unfortunately, there are still no certainties. So, the virologist adds: "I believe there are factors, which we do not yet know, which can favor the spread and the permanence of the virus, possibly related to hospital facilities. There are previous examples: the SARS 1 virus was circulated through the air duct of Hotel M in Hong Kong. Today we must be sure that coronavirus has not entered the ventilation systems of old buildings ".
And there are also many questions and no answers on the side of coronavirus lethality. In this respect, Capua hypothesizes that lethality "could be linked to several factors yet to be studied. Infinite hypotheses can be made with epidemiological criteria: demographic characteristics (age and sex), air quality, resistance to antibiotics, eating habits, behaviors. But an explanation must be found ."
"Something strange is happening - warns Gismondo speaking to AdnKronos Salute - In Lombardy there is an aggressiveness that cannot be explained. The hypotheses can all be valid", he specifies, but "one is that the virus has perhaps mutated". For this reason, "I appeal to the scientific community: let's unite to understand - urges the virologist - If we all get together and study a piece of it, we will probably be able to understand".
Posted by: Tom_LX | Mar 23 2020 20:00 utc | 42
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Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 23 2020 20:03 utc | 43
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