10:00 AM Update
A reader (thanks, Ben!)informed me that my memory was in error; Governor Blanco declared a state of emergency on Friday the 26th. I've included the declaration at the end of this post.
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Michael Wright: There was a Keystone Cops aspect to the Katrina responses. People in charge couldn’t think as fast as the storm and the events afterward. There was ineptness across the board.
Pundita: Ineptness is the least of it. There were definitely breakdowns in communication between agencies. Those need to be examined and fixed straightaway because hurricane season is still with us. And sure there was ineptness of varying degrees; there always are, in an emergency of such complexity and scope.
However, you don’t want to lose sight of the big question, which is whether there is something about the square footage in the lowest part of New Orleans that conceivably makes it worth committing mass murder for. Or negligent homicide or involuntary manslaughter, or however you want to term it.
MW: [Laughing] You’re still after Blanco!
P: What I don’t understand is why a grand jury isn’t after her yet. This is the screwiest thing I’ve ever seen in the US, at least in modern times. It’s happening in plain sight, which is what makes it screwy. I think Louisiana has a different code of law than the rest of the country; I wonder if that explains it. I think they go by the Napoleonic Code -- the French influence.
MW: If there’s anything to what you’re saying, it’s not really in plain sight. It’s a needle in a haystack of information. There’s so much going on, so many facts drifting around. I think it’s going to take time for people to sort things out, especially if they do other things with their life in addition to study news about Katrina.
P: What’s to sort out? Nothing has been done in underhanded fashion; it’s all been done in the open. That’s why Bush has been looking green around the gills. By the time he could think the unthinkable it was too late. He was sucker punched; you can always tell because he starts cracking tasteless jokes.
It’s her looks; Americans associate this kind of thing with someone who looks like Stalin, not someone whose picture could be on a box of cake mix.
MW: Then I think most people are having the same problem you say Bush had because it looks like a straight-up case of incompetence to me.
P: You’re overlooking key facts. At the time she needed to make the critical calls [Friday], Blanco [was informed] a Category 5 hurricane [could be] heading for Nola [New Orleans]. She knew that the entire city had to be evacuated. And the lowest-lying regions of the city definitely had to be evacuated or it was guaranteed there would be virtually no survivors in the Lower Ninth Ward and the entire eastern industrial section.
That was...before the storm was downgraded to a Cat 4 and of course before the storm veered slightly to the east, which was just before landfall.
She had to make the decision then to ask for federalized troops, which Bush offered, to help clear the city, including the hospitals and prison. She had to make the decision, then, how many state National Guards to deploy to start the evacuation process. She had to make the decision, then, whether to institute a state of emergency. [Correction: Blanco declared a state of emergency on Friday, the 26th.]
Blanco understood all this very clearly; she had the exact nature of the threat explained to her in front of witnesses in a video conferencing call from the head of the national hurricane agency.
Her attorneys can try to grasp at a straw by saying she was unaware that the levees, floodwalls and pumping system for Nola couldn’t handle anything greater than a Cat 3 storm surge. But that’s why a grand jury investigation is needed. They need to subpoena testimony, meeting minutes, computer records, and so on.
MW: Okay, surely she knew.
P: “Surely” doesn’t cut it in this situation. The evidence needs to be collected and entered into record. Of course they must have known -- Blanco and her emergency response team. They must have seen the engineering reports. But “must” won’t take you to criminal indictments
MW: You’re really envisioning criminal charges?
P: To think in any other terms evades the seriousness of the matter. The idea is to discover whether criminal charges need to be brought. No more federal monies, except for disaster relief for the victims, should be given to the state of Louisiana until there has been a grand jury inquiry. No clowning around with a congressional commission or naming an independent investigator. This isn’t Whitewater.
I’ll give you this much. The seriousness is not yet evident to many in the general public because the major television media have not yet run with the information in the Wall Street Journal report and the previous day’s ABC TV report. [About the flood in the Lower Ninth Ward and the eastern industrial section; see September 8 Pundita post.]
Those two reports jibe and ABC has footage of the flooding in that section. Oddly, ABC World News did not continue to run with that story after Sunday. Maybe a cable channel picked up on it but in that event it would be strange if NBC and CBS hadn’t jumped into the act.
So I don’t think most people understand yet that the lowest area of the city was under threat not just from the storm surge from one lake overflowing but from two, in addition to the surge from the Mississippi River in that part of the city.
To crib a quote from Titanic, it was a mathematical certainty; in a Cat 5 or Cat 4, there would be catastrophic flooding in that region of the city. The flooding just happened faster in this case, or it’s theorized that it happened faster, because a barge was thrown by the storm surge into a floodwall or levy portion.
The theory is that the barge tore loose a section of the floodwall or levee and water flooded into the breach although it’s still just a theory. The barge could have been tossed by the waves into a breach that was already there.
Yet even without that factor, the floodwalls would have been entirely topped and battered by the surge from 175 mph winds, which you could expect with a Cat 5. As it was, I seem to recall the Katrina winds were clocked at 145 mph.
MW: You’re saying the eastern industrial section is what to be looking at.
P: That’s where the story is but the TV cameras for the most part were trained on other parts of the city. You’re looking at a maze of facts that have been thrown at you for two weeks. The way out of the maze is to keep remembering there could not be survivors in the lowest level of the city in the event of a direct hit from a Cat 5.
How could there be survivors? You need to calculate how low the lowest-lying section of New Orleans is. It’s said that Nola is about 6 feet below sea level. That’s an average. It’s anywhere from about 1 to 10 feet below sea level. That means the lowest level, where the Lower Ninth Ward and the eastern industrial section are located, is 10 feet below sea level.
Then you have to add as much as 2 extra feet under sea level, depending on the time of day – the tide.
Now add the water surge generated by a Category 5 storm, which would immediately knock out the floodwalls, which if I recall are only 2 feet thick.
MW: Then you could be looking at 30 or 40 feet of water rushing in.
P: Not “could.” Certain. And remember you have to add the rain level in addition to the storm surge. In a direct hit from a Cat 5, the rain would have dumped as much as a half-foot or more within minutes.
Then there is the hurricane-force wind. So you’re in your house and you see the water flooding in at least a foot a minute. You run to the attic to get out through the roof. What do you do then, with 175 mph winds blowing? Try to cling to the chimney? Jump down into the floodwaters? Navigate ten foot waves or higher with 175 mph wind blowing?
Now, if you were living in the Carolinas or Florida you might be able to hold out if you clung to something high enough, if it’s a fast moving storm. That’s because the floodwaters have someplace to go --
MW: But the waters are trapped in New Orleans.
P: Sure. The city is a like a bowl set below sea level. Only the levees, floodwalls and pumps keep it from filling even when there’s no storm. Once the water gets in, it can’t get out except through leeching, evaporation or pumps. Realize the city floods from just one inch of rain.
In a Category 4 or 5 hurricane the pumps would be guaranteed to break down almost immediately. Yet even with all of them working at full tilt, they could not keep up with the walls of muddy, gunky water coming into the bowl during the height of the storm. And remember the pumps were constructed to deal with rainwater, not gunk water, which is why it’s slow going now.
And again keep in mind that the lowest section of the city is under threat not from one lake flooding but from two in addition to the Mississippi River flooding at that low elevation. They get pounded from three angles.
All this was surely known to the disaster planning team that advised Blanco; they had the engineering reports. But again, “surely” doesn’t cut it.
MW: I’m having trouble wrapping my mind around the implications.
P: There’s more, much more. So to think in terms of a white paper or a 9/11-style commission report and recommendations is ridiculous. You’re not going to collect the evidence needed to get a clear picture without threat of criminal indictment. The general idea is to get the Louisiana state legislature and various members of Blanco’s administration singing like a bird in exchange for immunity from prosecution.
MW: I’m not keeping up with you. You’re saying there’s something larger than assigning blame for the lack of upgrades to the levees and the chaos that followed the storm. That much I get --
P: Assuming Blanco is in possession of her faculties, she knew on the Saturday before the storm struck that she risked impeachment, at the least, by not ordering a full evacuation of the lowest-lying portion of the city and taking every means open to her to ensure the order was enforced.
MW: But she could pass the buck to [Nola mayor] Nagin, which might have happened anyway.
P: If she thinks Nagin would take the fall for her, truly she isn’t in possession of her faculties. He’s already sent up smoke signals. And that’s just in the wake of a Cat 4 strike. Money says he would be talking a blue streak already -- provided he survived the flood -- in the event of a Cat 5. But in that event, I think he would have evacuated himself on Sunday.
MW: Provided he could do so at that point.
P: Got that right.
MW: That’s a hard way to discover how expendable you are.
P: Not only Nagin, the police and the firemen. By Sunday they had learned just how expendable they were. At least the head of the harbor patrol knew how to take being expendable; the entire patrol was ordered to leave their posts and get themselves and their families out of Nola.
MW: You have to turn everything around and ask what the motive would be; why Blanco would take such a risk.
P: You can’t ask the question at this point; you can have suspicions about motive but first you have to establish whether a crime has been committed before you can talk about motive. First enter into evidence that a Cat 5 storm would overwhelm Nola’s defenses. Then that Blanco knew this. Then that she knew all her options. And that she had certain knowledge that a Cat 5 storm coming near or hitting directly at Nola would mean no survivors in the city’s lowest part without enforced evacuation.
MW: That’s a lot of things to establish.
P: Sure. And you have a snowball’s chance of establishing them without threat of criminal indictment. But if you don’t go that route, attempt to establish all that, you’ll never get the chance to ask “Why?”
MW: None of that will happen. The Democrats and the Republicans have pretty much equal reasons for wanting to get past the situation as fast as possible. And if it would be serious enough to go to an indictment the Democrats would not want to hear about a sucker punch. They would ask why Bush didn’t override her. They’re already asking that question, without even bringing up the hint of a criminal investigation.
P: The legalities about the point seem hazy; I’m not sure they are clearly established. That’s another reason to investigate whether a crime was committed. If so, that would give weight to legislation that gives unequivocal guidelines about the conditions under which the president can override a state governor.
You’re dead in the water, if you’ll pardon the expression, if you think in political terms. I’m talking about investigating whether a crime has been committed. If politics tries to get in the way, it will fall back hard on both political parties.
MW: Politics is already in the way; you’ve said that yourself. It’s already impeding a congressional investigation.
You’ve always been a ‘square at a time’ person. You don’t like to move to square two until you’ve resolved things at the first square. That makes for a thorough investigator but society doesn’t operate that way and political life certainly doesn’t.
In a sense, you want to hold Blanco accountable for something that didn’t come to pass. Maybe the analogy in criminal justice would be intention to commit a crime. You’re going back to the event as it originally unfolded but it didn’t end up the way it started. The Category 5 storm did not hit New Orleans. There was not a direct hit; the storm veered slightly.
So I think most people are willing to breathe a sigh of relief that the worst didn’t happen, then turn their attention to helping the survivors and wrangling over whether to rebuild New Orleans. You’re still back at that Saturday, going over it like a crime scene. It’s pig disease all over again.
P: Pig illness. Remember it hasn’t been established whether it is a disease.
MW: [Laughing] That just proves my point! You demonstrated that it wasn’t necessarily a disease but after the tenth day or so of inching through essays about pig disease -- illness -- I started wondering what it would take to pry you away from the topic. Only an American city under water, I found out!
At least there was a foreign policy angle to the pig disease story, no matter how tenuous. Now what are you going to do with your readers, if you spend the next six months trying to nail Blanco?
P: What makes you assume there’s not a foreign policy angle to what happened in Louisiana?
MW: I give up!
P: Don’t give up. Stay tuned.
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"Press Release
Date: 8/26/2005
[...]
GOVERNOR BLANCO DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY
BATON ROUGE, LA--Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco today issued Proclamation No. 48 KBB 2005, declaring a state of emergency for the state Louisiana as Hurricane Katrina poses an imminent threat, carrying severe storms, high winds, and torrential rain that may cause flooding and damage to private property and public facilities, and threaten the safety and security of the citizens of the state of Louisiana The state of emergency extends from Friday, August 26, 2005, through Sunday, September 25, 2005, unless terminated sooner.
The full text of Proclamation No. 48 KBB 2005 is as follows:
WHEREAS, the Louisiana Homeland Security and Emergency Assistance and Disaster Act, R.S. 29:721, et seq., confers upon the governor of the state of Louisiana emergency powers to deal with emergencies and disasters, including those caused by fire, flood, earthquake or other natural or man-made causes, in order to ensure that preparations of this state will be adequate to deal with such emergencies or disasters and to preserve the lives and property of the citizens of the state of Louisiana;
WHEREAS, when the governor finds a disaster or emergency has occurred, or the threat thereof is imminent, R.S. 29:724(B)(1) empowers her to declare the state of disaster or emergency by executive order or proclamation, or both; and
WHEREAS, On August 26, 2005, Hurricane Katrina poses an imminent threat to the state of Louisiana, carrying severe storms, high winds, and torrential rain that may cause flooding and damage to private property and public facilities, and threaten the safety and security of the citizens of Louisiana;
NOW THEREFORE I, KATHLEEN BABINEAUX BLANCO,
Governor of the state of Louisiana, by virtue of the authority vested by the Constitution and laws of the state of Louisiana, do hereby order and direct as follows:
SECTION 1: Pursuant to the Louisiana Homeland Security and Emergency Assistance and Disaster Act, R.S. 29:721, et seq., a state of emergency is declared to exist in the state of Louisiana as Hurricane Katrina poses an imminent threat, carrying severe storms, high winds, and torrential rain that may cause flooding and damage to private property and public facilities, and threaten the safety and security of the citizens of the state of Louisiana;
SECTION 2: The state of Louisiana's emergency response and recovery program is activated under the command of the director of the state office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness to prepare for and provide emergency support services and/or to minimize the effects of the storm's damage.
SECTION 3: The state of emergency extends from Friday, August 26, 2005, through Sunday, September 25, 2005, unless terminated sooner."
http://www.gov.state.la.us/
Press_Release_detail.asp?id=973
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