Saturday, July 13

Associated Press takes a stab at explaining what's happening in Idlib

"In a relevant development earlier this week, media reports said that Saudi Arabia had offered Hefty Cash to tribal leaders in Eastern Syria to support the US-backed militants in order to threaten Turkey."
-- see FARS report below the AP one.
Stalled Idlib campaign shows limits of Syrian, Russian power

By BASSEM MROUE
July 13, 2019 - approx. 6:45 AM ET
The Associated Press
BEIRUT (AP) — Two months of intensive airstrikes by Syrian government forces and their Russian allies, coupled with a fierce ground assault on rebel-controlled Idlib province, have killed hundreds of people and caused massive displacement while achieving little to no gain for President Bashar Assad.
Despite the heavy bombardment, Assad’s troops have been unable to make any significant advances against al-Qaida-linked militants and other jihadi groups who dominate Idlib province, the last significant area held by opposition forces. Militant attacks have killed an average of more than a dozen soldiers and allied militiamen a day in recent weeks.
The struggling campaign underscores the limits of Syria’s and Russia’s airpower and inability to achieve a definitive victory in the country’s long-running civil war, now in its eighth year.
With crucial military assistance from Russia and Iran, Syrian troops have in the past few years recovered most other opposition-held parts of the country with crushing offensives and long-running sieges.
In each of those places, rebels either surrendered or were forcibly exiled to Idlib, where they are now cornered with nowhere left to go. Bitter and desperate, they can only fight to the end.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of the main al-Qaida-linked group in the region, has called on every able person to “perform his religious duty” and join the fight.
Sam Heller, a Syria expert with the International Crisis Group who closely follows the situation in the rebel-controlled area, said, “Idlib’s armed opposition may not be able to win an open battle for the northwest, but they can make a Syrian military victory terribly costly, maybe intolerably so.”
Politically, Idlib reflects the tug of war among international players supporting opposing sides of Syria’s conflict.
[...]
The report continues on at considerable length and with several interesting details but ends with this punchline:
“The Syrian military’s inability so far to make more headway in Idlib does not mean it cannot ultimately achieve victory nationwide,” Heller, of Crisis Group, said. “It does show, however, that its military victory is contingent on politics that are bigger than just Syria.”
It's nonsense that the Russian and Syrian forces can't pulverize the resistance in Idlib right now. So what's really happening? Let's see -- watch carefully don't blink:

Paper: Riyadh, Abu Dhabi on Threshold of Confrontation with Turkey in Syria
July 13, 5:50 AM
FARS

TEHRAN (FNA)- Syria might soon be the scene of new rivalries between Turkey and a coalition of Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Kurdish separatists after a recent meeting between the Saudi and UAE officials and the anti-Ankara Kurdish militia and accelerated dispatch of military equipment by Turkey to its occupied territories in Syria, a leading Arab newspaper wrote on Saturday.

The Arabic-language al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper reported that a high-ranking delegation of Saudi and UAE officials had recently held a series of crucial meetings with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commanders who oppose Turkey.

It added that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have also promised increased financial aid to the Kurdish-majority SDF during the meetings.

Meantime, Turkey has invited a number of leaders and commanders of affiliated militant groups, including the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Syria's National Army to Ankara to hold a meeting.

It has also sent a large amount of weapons and military equipment to the terrorist groups in al-Bab and Jarabulus in Syria's Aleppo province in the Western parts of the Euphrates river to increase their preparedness and has held a series of meetings with the tribal leaders in Syria to organize a front against the Kurdish militias.

Al-Quds al-Arabi said given the recent events and incidents, a confrontation between the Saudi- and UAE-backed Kurdish militias and Turkey-backed militants is now highly possible, an event that marks the start of a completely new proxy war in Syria.

In a relevant development earlier this week, media reports said that Saudi Arabia had offered Hefty Cash to tribal leaders in Eastern Syria to support the US-backed militants in order to threaten Turkey.

The Arabic-language Al-Watan newspaper quoted special sources in Eastern Syria as saying that Saudi Minister for Persian Gulf Affairs Thamer al-Sabhan in his meeting with Syrian tribal leaders asked for helping Kurdish fighters.

Several US officials were accompanying al-Sahban during his meeting with tribal leaders of Eastern Syria, it added.

They have offered to give a hefty sum of $50 million to them indirectly through local councils and also direct financial aid, the paper further said.

Al-Watan newspaper noted that the efforts by Saudi Arabia are in line with support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the presence of al-Sahban in the region is in line with Riyadh's confrontation with Turkey on the issue of Kurds.

The daily noted that Turkey-Saudi Arabia relations are currently very strained.

Al-Watan also quoted special sources as saying that Saudi Arabia threatens Turkey and tries to include itself in the Syrian power balance through the Kurds, specially the SDF.

Meantime, Secretary General of Popular Party Sheikh Navaf Tarad al-Molhem, who is a tribal leader of al-Hasaneh tribe pointed to al-Sahban's cash offer to tribal leaders of Eastern Syria, and said that Eastern Syria tribal leaders will confront any effort by Saudi Arabia, the US and Turkey to disintegrate Syria.

In a relevant development last week, the tribal leaders in Deir Ezzur voiced strong opposition to the Saudi plots to support the SDF's separatist measures in the Eastern parts of the province.

Al-Watan newspaper reported that al-Jamel tribe in Eastern Deir Ezzur had issued a statement to emphasize its opposition to the appointment of SDF-affiliated Ahmed al-Khabil as the Sheikh of al-Bakir tribes in Eastern Deir Ezzur and the head of Syria's military democratic council.

Al-Jamel tribe has referred in the statement to the terrorist acts by the SDF in Eastern Euphrates region, and said that it does not recognize al-Khabil who has been appointed with the support of al-Sabhan and the terrorist militias as the Emir of al-Bakir Sheikhs.

Other Syrian tribes had also earlier stressed their opposition to al-Khabil's appointment.

Meantime, the Arabic-language al-Baladi news website affiliated to the militants reported that one of the leaders of Syria's Arab tribes namely Obaid Khalaf al-Hissan was assassinated in the town of al-Ali Bajeliyeh in Tal Abyadh region in Northern Raqqa after stopping cooperation with the Kurdish forces in Eastern Euphrates.

It added that the SDF commanders had earlier attempted to return him.

Relevant reports also said in June that the Syrian tribes in Deir Ezzur province had stood against a Saudi-US plot to support the Kurds to decompose [decouple] Eastern Euphrates from Syria.

The Arabic-language al-Ahd news website quoted the leader of al-Moshahedah in al-Jazeerah region in Eastern Euphrates Sheikh Heidar al-Hamadi as saying that all Syrian tribes, except a little number of them, had opposed the recent meeting by al-Sahban to Kurdish-occupied regions to study plots to separate Eastern Syria from the country's territory.

He underlined al-Sahban's attempts to coax the tribes in Eastern Syria into implementation of separatist plots, and said most of them want Damascus to retake control of the region.

Meantime, al-Watan newspaper reported that a Swedish delegation, including the country's representative for Syria affairs, the Swedish foreign ministry official for Syria affairs and the official for the agency on international aid, have entered the Kurdish-occupied regions in Eastern Syria and held meetings with a number of commanders in line with the western states' accelerated attempts to interfere in Syria's internal affairs and assist the SDF in their separatist dreams.

Mohammad al-Akam, a senior Syrian legislator, said that a tripartite coalition has been formed among Saudi Arabia, the Kurdish forces and Israel under the US supervision which pursues pressures on Damascus after gaining victory over terrorist groups, by separating the Northeastern parts of the country.

Head of the politburo of Turkey-backed Lawa al-Mo'etasam-Free Syrian Army terrorists Mostafa Sejari wrote on his twitter page on Monday that Riyadh had stopped financial support for the terrorist groups in Northern Syria in line with a fresh scheme to help Kurds cut off Eastern Syria from the mainland after a Saudi-US delegation met in Deir Ezzur.

He added that Saudi Arabia had decided to cut financial support for the regions occupied by the terrorist groups in Northern Syria.

He added that the measure was adopted after Riyadh started support for the separatist Kurdish groups in Northeastern Syria following a visit by al-Sahban to Kurdish-occupied regions.

Sejari underlined that Saudi Arabia wants to pressure Turkey, warning, "All of us will be harmed by this measure."


[END REPORT]

So what does it all mean?  I think it means AP needs to get up earlier in the morning to cover events in Syria. I think it could also mean Assad has been waiting for the jackals to turn on each other. 

By the way, I love FARS capitalizing "hefty cash." Does this mean Hefty Cash is a new term of art for an old tactic in the Middle East? 

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