Dave Schuler and Pundita chew the fat about battling Avian Flu

The letter from Dave Schuler at The Glittering Eye raises five points, so I have inserted my replies after each point.

Dear Pundita:
I'm back from my visit to St. Louis and trying to catch up. I've just finished reading your extremely interesting series on China and the potential avian flu pandemic. Here are my comments:

1. One small technical correction. The avian flu in question is caused by a virus. Antibiotics have no effect on viruses. Consequently, giving antibiotics to domestic fowl has little or no effect on the development of the avian flu virus. What is being claimed is that Chinese farmers have given anti-VIRALS to their domestic fowl:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/
influenza/avianflu/news/june2005avflu.html

Re #1. Thank you for the link; the report throws some light on the murky reading of the law in China about the use of human anti-virals on chickens. I was unaware that anti-virals are still being used in China in this fashion, although I wasn't shocked to read about reports that this is still occurring.

I think one of my recent essays mentions the overuse of "medications" during past years; a better choice of words would have been "anti-virals." But yesterday's essay specifically mentions feeding human "antibiotics" to chickens (in the attempt to stave off an avian flu outbreak in 1997) because my understanding is that this happened -- even though, as you note, it would be useless to apply an antibiotic to a viral infection. So it seems many farmers in China didn't initially realize what they were up against; by the time they did, the "1997" strain of the A(H) virus had mutated.

This said, your comment and the information in the article you reference raises the question of whether antibiotics were indeed used in the manner I described; the practice might have been limited to anti-virals. Interested readers might want to research the question on Google.

2. You mention bulldozing of villages in China by the army. If it's actually going on, our intelligence community certainly knows about it: it would show up on satellite imagery.

Re #2: Your reasoning is correct.

3. Frankly, there's probably little we can do about avian flu. By the time we know that a virulent human-transmissible version has shown up it will be too late to actually stave off a pandemic. If we don't already have stores of anti-virals (and I'm pretty confident we don't), we probably can't ramp production up fast enough to make a significant difference and I can't imagine Western governments acting fast enough.

Re #3: Stop and think: Has H5N1 put a man on the moon? We're going to beat this little bit of protoplasm. What we might not beat, unless we put more energy into it, is the Chinese Communist Party's famous Denial & Deception program, followed by the D&D program of every government who believes that if you just sit there and make the sad eyes, the rich governments of the world will come rushing to your aid.

Since the start of this blog my message to people from such countries has been, "For your own sake don't keep counting on the help." Just a change in weather patterns could eat up all the spare financial resources of the world's rich nations by the end of this decade.

True, there is only a small window of opportunity to ward off a supervirus pandemic, but we shouldn't be thinking in terms of either-or. Every intelligent action that we take to limit the spread of pandemic would help brake its spread. Every bit of effort helps.

At the end of the day we will put H5N1 out of commission; what happens between then and now depends a great deal on human efforts. Those who would say it's all in God's hands aren't thinking straight. The human race can't strengthen and mature without facing trials. So the old saying, "Pray but row away from the rocks" applies greatly to dealing with the threat of pandemic.

4. To my jaundiced eye the real problem is the conditions of life in rural China. Large numbers of people living in very close conduct with domestic livestock in poor sanitary conditions. The practice of feeding the dung of domestic fowl to pigs aggravates the situation. Sort of a "perfect storm" for developing new strains of disease.

Re #4: Pundita nearly keeled at your news about the practice of feeding fowl droppings to pigs. I had assumed that the H virus was passed to pigs simply from their snuffling around infected bird poop inadvertently plopped in their midst.

This said, the general conditions you describe about rural China apply to virtually all "undeveloped" regions of the world. Yet the nature of the virus makes it just as likely that the supervirus could materialize from a human flu bug caught by a poultry worker in a very modern, clean plant in the developed world. The human carrier of the supervirus could be anyone who is exposed to a more easily transmittable version of H5N1 and a human flu bug.

That is why rapid response, good data collection and full reporting are the key to limiting the spread of a superpandemic. The warning applies to the developed countries as well.

If you want a stomach-churning experience, read about some of the foot-dragging that took place right here in the USA with regard to a less virulent strain of the A(H) virus that spread among some chicken farms in 2004.

Some of the affected chicken farms were not Mom&Pop enterprises. But no matter the size of the business the owners faced the same situation that chicken farmers battling H5N1 were facing in the poor countries: loss of their entire business. So at that time the tendency both here and abroad was to try for half-way measures at first, such as quarantine, instead of killing the entire flock. The excuse here was that the strain as not as virulent as H5N1.

There was other astounding stuff going on in the US while the H5N1 epidemic was raging in Asia. One news report was about sending a batch of diseased chickens to market and putting them in stalls along with other livestock for sale! If I recall this was in south Texas, where a large Mexican immigrant population likes to buy live chickens then slaughter them for food as they do in their country, instead of buying supermarket dead chickens.

Then I think some official read the headlines about H5N1 and yelled, "Holy Shit!" So then they went running around looking for the diseased fowl in the open-air markets to remove them. That was like looking for a needle in a haystack until of course the chickens keeled over dead.

Don't quote me on my recollection of that report but it's in the ballpark.

The moral of the story is that the bottom line is exactly that. With many business owners, if they can find a way to save their business they will. So, since 2004 a massive education program has been going on in the USA. The CDC and the chicken dealers' association and whatnot have given the direst warnings. We hope the warnings have sunk in.

Are conditions better in China than say the US for making and spreading diseases? Sure. But H5N1 is a very democratic virus -- rich nation, poor nation, it doesn't care. Nor does it have a preference for rural surroundings or antiquated chicken processing facilities. It can strike in the most modern facility and in the middle of a big city.

This said, one can and should heap blame on China's government for massive Denial & Deception about H5N1 in their country. More than the virus itself, China's attempt to cover up the situation has been the most deadly aspect of the situation -- although China can't be singled out in this situation. Across the board, poorer countries that export chickens have been slow to report on disease outbreaks among fowl -- and until virologists yelled and screamed and jumped up and down, slow to kill off flocks.

None of the above overturns your points. In a highly globalized trade environment, traditional rural practices with regard to livestock, whether in Thailand, India, the African continent or China, are indeed a laboratory for highly infectious diseases.

The other side of the story is that man, bird and animal have been living in close quarters since our time began. We have built up a lot of antibodies. So there is a certain artificiality about the present situation -- a sign that overuse of medications and powerful disinfectants might have have weakened human immune systems.

Did you ever read Agatha Christie's Come Tell Me How you Live? It's a fascinating account of her experiences while accompanying her second husband to an archeological dig in the Middle East. That was in the 1940s, if I recall. She told of the incredible strength of the immune system of Arab nomad tribes she encountered. When it came to recovering from illness, they were like supermen in comparison to modernized peoples who are born and raised with scads of medication and in "clean" enviornments.

However, another side of the story is the tragedy that befell Tibetans when they came down from the high altitudes in Tibet to live in refugee camps in India. They did not have a tradition of bathing or washing their clothes. That tradition allowed natural oils to build up on the skin, clothes and hair, thereby protecting them from skin cancer from the merciless sun at very thin altitudes. And the sun at that altitude quickly killed the kind of bacteria present in Tibet during that era.

But in the Indian climate the traditional daily bath of the Indian and the daily change into clean clothing is vital protection against a host of bacteria that live at lower altitudes and less intense sunlight.

The Tibetans refused the Indian doctors' pleas to bathe and wash their clothes. The Tibetans died in great number; probably more died that way than at the hands of the Red Guard in Tibet.

5. By the way, face masks won't do a damned thing. They won't filter out something as small as a virus.
Dave in Chicago"

Re #5: Good point; however, I stress this isn't an either-or situation. Estimates vary but assume that roughly half the people who are exposed to H5N1 survive the experience. Assume also it will be about the same for those exposed to a supervirus. So survival for many who face pandemic will come down to the strength of their immune system.

When it comes to beefing up the immune system, every little bit helps because the less strain on the system from other challenges, the more it can muster resistance to a killer virus.

To the extent a face mask can help protect the immune system against "nuisance" challenges -- common cold germs, allergens, pollutants and so on -- it is worth it to wear one when a flu epidemic sweeps through, even though the mask won't protect against inhaling airborne virus.

There is also psychological value to wearing a mask: a physical reminder to the wearer and a visual reminder to others to take precautions during a flu epidemic: not to cough indiscriminately, not to stand too close to others if it can be avoided, and so on.

Of course wearing a face mask is an extreme measure but if the flu season this year is a doozy not a useless one.

It's vital when thinking of strategies not to overlook routine and small things when trying to build up the immune system. Start now and throughout the coming flu season to:

> Pace yourself
> Get enough sleep, sunlight, and exercise
> Remove as many emotional stresses as you can
> Eat as healthily as possible

> Tend now to minor health problems; e.g., ingrown toenail, gum disease, etc. Every small stressor you can remove from your immune system is a help.

> Wear closed shoes -- give up sandals and going barefoot in all but the most pristine outdoor environments and inside the house.

> Observe the 30 second rule when washing your hands and keep your fingernails and toenails cut nearly to the quick.

> Build up healthy intestinal bacteria by eating yogurt, etc.

> Don't go overboard with antibacterial soaps but take special precautions when handling raw meat including chicken and be sure it's properly stored and cooked -- and the store wrappings carefully disposed of.

> And for heaven's sake get a flu shot even if you hate them and think they're useless.

All the above are simple things, things we've heard for years from health experts. Now is the time to put them into practice. However, Americans tend to have a boom-and-bust approach to health matters. We go overboard or we're lax. We should aim for balance.

We need to practice patience: take tiny, regular steps to better health so we don't feel overwhelmed by the task then ditch it. Remember the story I recounted about Félix Houphouët-Boigny's approach to restoring health?

I used to know many Houphouët stories by heart. The one I remember best, after all these many years, as how he got control of his ministers in his old age. He was slowing down, unable to walk without assistance. So he consulted with his doctor; he explained that his ministers were losing respect for him because they were seeing his physical decline.

The doctor observed that it was a matter of rebuilding stamina; with old age had come a very sedentary lifestyle. The doctor warned that too much activity after all those years of being sedentary could damage his health severely and to build up stamina slowly.

Houphouët took the advice to heart. In private, he began with counting out his steps, and adding a few more steps every day, until after months of this he could walk miles without tiring. But all the while he did this, he kept up his old man's gait in the presence of his ministers.

Until one day he called them to walk with him. To their astonishment he set off at a brisk pace, all the while issuing instructions and pelting them with questions of state. Very soon the ministers (who lived sedentary Limousine Lives) were huffing and puffing to keep up with him.

Above all, remember that this is our time. Sometimes on a night the raccoon and possum members of Pundita's foreign policy team gather and we sit together, and they tell me of their clan's memories. This causes me to remember that the ancestors in our own clan went through so much to bring us to this point and that this is our time, time to show what the human clan is made of.

Many challenges are ahead but never before has so much human wisdom appeared at once, all around the world. And just in the nick of time. This earth has her own maintenance schedule, which is not always kind to living creatures. In the coming decades we will need all our ingenuity, faith and character to insure that we do more than survive, that we survive with grace. We will rise to the test.

Speaking of pacing ourselves I am glad you got some time off. As you can see by my posts, I set aside my vacation when I learned about reports of an Ebola outbreak in China. That led me to catch up on news about the latest doings of H5N1. I felt it was vital to alert Pundita readers to the many-faceted story.

Now I must follow my own advice and get a much-needed break. I will put up one more post on Wednesday night to answer a few other letters relating to earlier posts about H5N1/Virus X. Then I am going on a real vacation, so there will be no more posts until Saturday and that one will be very brief.

Best regards to you, Dave and to your 'team' -- er, pack.

Leveraging WHO's demand for better reporting on H5N1: US actions would speak louder than words

Yesterday I received a letter from Dr. Patricia Doyle* that contains sound recommendations:

"With regard to biopreparedness, I suggest using closed military bases and VA hospitals for use in bioattack or during a pandemic. We may need to use these facilities so they should be prepped. Buildings would have to be revamped; e.g., old ventilation changed into isolation type.

If the recent outbreak of highly infectious lethal disease(s) in China goes global we may need to have isolation treatment centers at these bases and the VA hospitals to ensure containment and to preserve our first responders and hospital personnel.

Some of the recent reports out of China indicate [swine 'mystery' disease] spreading in hospitals to personnel and other patients. The ideal is not to treat patients with highly infectious disease in the same hospital as the routine patients.

You can be assured that I am hoping Henry Niman and I are wrong [about the current threat from disease outbreaks in China]. I would much prefer "egg" on my face to an outbreak. Any day.
Patricia in New York"

Pundita heartily concurs with the advice but doubts Patricia will ever find egg on her face. China's latest mystery disease aside, humanity is now in a very dicey situation with regard to the spread of H5N1. During this critical period it is wrong to hope that a vaccine is all that's needed to dodge a superpandemic -- one brought on by a supervirus of mutated H5N1/human flu virus. This point is implicit in the caveat attached to the successful H5N1 vaccine trial:

...the strongest response [from the test subjects] was with two shots of the largest dose of the vaccine, 90 micrograms, higher than many experts had expected. That means that the amount the government has bought from Sanofi-Pasteur...would [only] suffice for 450,000 people...The [US] government is seeking...enough additional vaccine to inoculate another 4.5 million people.(1)

You may trust that if a pandemic is quicker on the draw than manufacturing capacity, there will be a clamor from the citizenry -- here and in other countries -- to cut the high required dosage so that more people can have at least 'some' protection.

If governments cede to the demand you don't want to think about what's in store. Ditto if governments refuse to cede; we'll be seeing watered down knockoffs of the vaccine sold on black markets.

And there could be only the smallest window of opportunity to stop a superpandemic.(2) So it's hard to go overboard with biopreparedness. If the superpandemic doesn't materialize we can chalk up the time and money spent to vital practice at quick coordinated civilian response to any kind of disaster. Sooner or later, practice at such response will be the deciding factor in how well a society survives a disaster, whether it's made by nature or humans.

Pundita was reminded of this while reading a July 27 essay by Joe Katzman at Winds of Change titled Playing Chicken with Avian Flu: Pandemic Rising?(3) The essay is stuffed with practical advice about biopreparedness, right down to the level of individual families. Katzman notes:

...begin building little islands of understanding and capability...Plan less. Experience and communicate more. Become a pack in motion, not a herd in wait.

In addition to the obvious reasons for such advice, American action to get prepared for a biodisaster is the best way to convince developing world governments of the need to expend more effort on dealing with killer viruses.

I observed in yesterday's essay that India and other countries have covered up deaths from H5N1 in their countries. It might be more precise to observe that they've covered up their lousy data collection and analysis relating to deaths from highly infectious diseases.

Given the H5N1 antibodies found in poultry workers and the lethality of the disease, it's a statistical certainty that a number of deaths in India (and other Asian countries) since 2003 have been from H5N1 but were reported only as influenza. Better analysis would have pinpointed spikes and anomalies in reported flu deaths and symptoms during the years 2003-2004. Yet developing-world governments view big spending on such programs as a luxury, in the same manner they view stringent anti-pollution measures as a luxury that only rich nations can afford.

The task is to convince such governments that they can't afford not to throw adequate resources toward warding off an epidemic in their country. They need to be very clear on the fact that if a superpandemic materializes they can't assume the rich nations will be in a position to bail out the poorer ones. This point is hard to impress on many governments, as the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control learned the hard way in 2003.

The governments nod and say "Yes of course we understand."

As soon as there is a lull in a disease outbreak they return "Analysis of disease reports" to the bottom of the budget list. That's understandable; humans are by nature gamblers. However, those who have closely followed the career of H5N1 know that now is the time to sit on the gambling urge.

Americans can help get this point across while helping themselves. We should realize that no matter how much crabbing is done around the world about the USA, we are still looked upon as the leader by virtue of our great success as a nation. So, how Americans act has more weight than all the official speeches combined. You can shout about H5N1 data all you want; it's actions that count to convince that you're seriously concerned about the data.

This point also holds true when poorer nations hear they're supposed to work themselves into a lather about biopreparedness. If they see Americans busy at the task, it will sink in that we're not blowing hot air.

There is another reason Americans might want to get on a biopreparedness kick at this time: it is the best way to convince Beijing that a US demand for transparency about H5N1 cases in China is not a plot to overthrow China's Communist Party. The CCP's concern about US plotting is now well within the paranoid range.(4)

* For information on Patricia Doyle see Saturday's Pundita post.

1) The New York Times

2) FuturePundit: Prompt response might stop avian flu pandemic

3) Winds of Change: Playing Chicken with Avian Flu: Pandemic Rising?

4) Pundita: Strange Days in China...

Pundita plays Devil's Advocate about the latest viral outbreak in China

This post is in answer to a letter from Stan in Canada.

For a moment assume the worst-case scenario: a mutation of airborne-transmitted Ebola mixed with a mutation of H5N1 and further, that the ghastly brew is a bioweapon experiment that jumped the lab. We'll call this virus Bogeyman X or BX for short.

What would BX have to do with the threat of a supervirus? Realize there's already a H5N1 pandemic underway. But that's not the supervirus, the megakiller.

What is a supervirus? It's H5N1 mixed with genetic material from a human flu virus. That will be the superkiller. It has not happened yet because you may trust that when it does, there will be no way to cover up the number of people dying.

So let's back up a few paces and look at the big picture:

Did you notice in Patricia Doyle's letter that now she's talking about what Henry Niman has said about "WSN/33 lab-developed genes" associated with Spanish Flu?

Do you see what's going on? A horse doctor got herself involved with a scientist who is working at the molecular level of existence. So of course when you take it down to that level, there are any number of genes that can display any number of characteristics that match all kinds of really deadly stuff.

This doesn't mean there is no Ebola loose in China, nor does it mean Niman is wrong. Nor does it mean there's not a bioweapon component.

It means that this entire story threatens to collapse from the sheer weight of hypothesizing and incomplete data emanating from (1) a gene scientist whose company has taken out God Knows how many patents relating to flu vaccine development and (2) anonymous people posting at Boxun.

It also means that there are now so many theories, claims, counterclaims and rumors that even the smallest wrong step leads to a quagmire. A good example is the report about the village bulldozings: evidentially one report is that this was done to cover up an outbreak of Ebola. Another report says it was done to cover up an outbreak of H5N1.

And note: once I served notice that a member of the blogosphere was questioning credentials, Doyle got very cautious about the Ebola angle in her letter to me:

Boxun reports that a physician [in China] treating pig disease patients isolated strains of Ebola...There is no verification of the report at this time. I sent the information to ... USAMRIID; as of this date I have not received an authoritative reply verifying the Boxun reports.

With regard to the mass fowl deaths at Qinghai Lake, Henry Niman's website sure isn't talking about Ebola -- at least, not as of the 6th of August. Here's what he's saying:

However, the sequence of the isolates from Qinghai Lake indicate that there will be a major problem using the new vaccine against the H5N1 being spread by migratory birds...The differences between 2004 H5N1 from Vietnam and 2005 H5N1 from Qinghai Lake are 18 amino acids in HA and 13 amino acids in NA.

He's talking about mutations of H5N1, plain and simple.

In 2004 there was a report of thousands of bramblings falling dead from the sky in mid-flight, in China. H5N1 as the cause of death was 'ruled out' by Beijing. They posited some kind of poisoning but I never heard anything more about promised tests and sharing the data.

In any case, the A-H virus is now incredibly lethal to birds/fowl. It got that way not from bioweapon experiments but from Mainland and Hong Kong chicken farmers illegally feeding their flocks antibiotics made for humans; this was back in 1997-1998 during the Hong Kong bird flu outbreak.* They were trying to stop the outbreak. But the virus simply mutated in response to the antibiotics and grew stronger and more clever.

So now we have H5N1.

As I noted earlier, the pandemic relating to that particular strain is already underway. Niman notes in a 7/31 post at Recombinomics:

Most countries have little incentive to report H5N1 cases. India claims to have never had H5N1 in poultry or people, although poultry workers in India have H5N1 antibodies. Thailand claims to have had no H5N1 cases in 2005 although the H5N1 isolated from birds closely matches the H5N1 in northern Vietnam isolated from patients. Indonesia claims their H5N1 infections in 2003 were due to New Castle Disease and the H5N1 in a Jakarta suburban family was a fatal bacterial infection.

That observation is a replay of what was going in 2003-2004 with the H5N1 outbreak.

The kill rate for H5N1 in humans is roughly 50% if I recall. So if people in Asia are demonstrating H5N1 antibodies -- meaning they've been exposed to the virus -- you can bet a lot of people have already died from the disease. The Indian government is covering it up. Ditto Indonesia, and go on down the list.

So it's counterproductive to just go after China's government for lying and not being forthcoming with data. WHO and the CDC went round the block with all those governments back in 2003-2004. The agencies stood on their head to warn that the only chance of the human race avoiding a super pandemic was if all those governments got very transparent very fast about data relating to suspected H5N1 illness.

There are many signs that mass wildlife fowl/bird deaths from H5N1 have been happening at least as early as 2003. My sense is that there was only one thing extraordinary about the mass deaths of the bramblings and the mass deaths of fowl at Qinghai Lake: the deaths occurred at very famous landmarks. The bramblings died at Hu Jintao's birthplace. Qinghai Lake is a world famous tourist spot. That means there was no way the PLA could cover up those two particular instances of mass death in bird/fowl wildlife.

As to how many other instances there have been -- H5N1 is 100% lethal to birds/fowl. And a very fast killer. So I assume there have been cases around the world of mass deaths in migratory birds when they touched down in an infected region. The shelf life of the virus is incredibly long -- it lives for many days in bird feces, even under freezing conditions or in hot sun.

Now let's return to BX Virus. Suppose it exists. What can we do about it? Stand around and accuse the PLA of conducting bioweapons research that got away from them? Then stand around arguing for another year while China denies until so many bodies pile up they have no choice but to confess they have a little problem? Then would come the excuses:

"We just poor developing country trying to make a buck. We won't let it happen again until the next time can we have a World Bank loan for $100 million dollars to modernize our health clinic reporting?"

Meanwhile, plain old H5N1 is galloping around the planet, looking to hook up with a cute human flu virus.

So, what are our options here, Stan? And what is the top priority? "Get Beijing" or "Get all the world's governments to be more cooperative about sharing data on H5N1?"

If #1, you just try proving that Beijing is conducting bioweapon research that got out of the lab. It can be done, I suppose, given time, but now we're in a race against time.

If #2, you get a better response out of China by including them with everyone -- including Canada, I might add, which dragged their feet on admitting to a SARS outbreak. And by keeping the discussion limited to H5N1. Then you have a fighting chance of quickly locating and isolating a disease outbreak that represents the appearance of a supervirus.

I doubt you need illustration but just to review what we're up against with the CCP: I think Beijing came up with the strep suis tale simply because it's a disease that doesn't have to be reported to health agencies in China. And because some of the symptoms of the mystery disease match those associated with strep suis.

However, the Hong Kong authorities (badly burned by the Mainland's foot-dragging on SARS and the 2003 H5N1 outbreak) wised up quickly on the heels of the June outbreak of the mystery disease. On July 1st Hong Kong authorities instructed that henceforth all strep suis cases had to be reported.

If you go back through all the stories, you'll note that from that time forward, Beijing became a little less insistent that the mystery disease was strep suis. And as July unfolded, some Mainland officials allowed as to maybe the disease could be something else, maybe, mixed with strep suis.

Translation: "We know Hong Kong isn't buying."

Behind closed doors, it's okay for the US government to tell Beijing that if they don't cut out the bioweapon experiments the US will make them sorry. But Face on the world stage is everything to the CCP right now. Use that instead of trying to make them fess up. Use it as leverage to get them to report all human and animal deaths from H5N1 in China. Use it to get blood samples of people ill with the disease. If the samples turn up really weird stuff such as Ebola -- yes, well, it's human to err and we know the PLA will do better next time with monitoring experimental labs.

I would take that attitude with Beijing until every man, woman and child on the planet has been vaccinated against H5N1. That won't necessarily stop a supervirus. It will slow it down.

* August 9 Update: A reader mentioned that the practice might not have been illegal in China at the time. I have not had the time to check into the situation but whether or not the practice was illegal, they had no idea how much disaster they were courting. This situation is not limited to China, nor is it limited to abusing antibiotics for humans by feeding them to fowl in the futile attempt to fight a virus. Antibiotics have been over-used, across the board. We're paying a very high price for this with many diseases that are now resistant to antibiotics.

Intelligence Summit website now valuable source for GWOT and US defense/security data

John Loftus mentioned to John Batchelor's audience on 8/5 that the Intelligence Summit website now has an extensive news section about US homeland security/defense/ terrorism and that the summit's ambition is to be the best source for news on the topics.

From my pass-through this afternoon, the Intelligence Summit News Page is already a valuable central source for the general news-following public as well as those working in all areas of homeland security/defense.

So I am adding a link to the page on my sidebar under the "GWOT" category. I especially liked the data in the IS archives for earlier years.

Pundita was also glad to discover that the 8/2 Loftus broadcast report about an Ebola outbreak in China, and which I referenced in an August 3 post, is archived on the Intelligence Summit News Page! The report is archived in audio along with all other Loftus reports to Batchelor's audience since August 1, 2005.

To access the 8/2 report, go to Intelligence Summit News Page, then scroll down to 8/2 "John Batchelor Show, August 2, 2005, John Loftus, Chinese Ebola."

Because the website for John Batchelor does not yet archive his show's broadcasts, at least now there is a website that archives Batchelor's nightly Loftus Report. That's a boon for Batchelor listeners who are unwilling to attend dinner parties, wakes and wedding receptions with a little radio wire in their ear. (Pundita has long since adjusted to being asked by curious dinner partners if I work for the Secret Service.)

"H5N1 Bird Flu Evolves Away From Pandemic Vaccine"

I consider it so important that I publish below the entire August 6 Recombinomics commentary (unsigned but surely written or at least reviewed by Henry Niman -- see yesterday's post). However, the original publication of the text contains 11 links that you will need to access via the Recombinomics site here: H5N1 Bird Flu Evolves Away From Pandemic Vaccine. I strongly recommend that you take the time to read through every link.

The commentary text omits the full name of a source quote and also has a few typos; minor errors I've corrected here, and which suggest the writing was hastily posted -- perhaps in response to the early edition of the August 7 New York Times report titled Avian Flu Vaccine Called Effective in Human Testing by Lawrence K. Altman.

I will have a second post up (related to the topic of this post) sometime this evening; I am waiting to receive comments on the text so I can't say with certainty what hour it will be published. I'd suggest checking back after 9:00 PM, EDT. Thanks.

"Recombinomics Commentary
August 6, 2005

An earlier human vaccine against A(H5N1) avian influenza virus was prepared after it first appeared in the world, in Hong Kong in 1997. That vaccine was never fully developed or used, and the strain has mutated since then.

In interviews over recent days, Dr. Fauci [1] has said that tests so far have shown that the new vaccine produced a strong immune response among the small group of healthy adults under age 65 who volunteered to receive it, although the doses needed were higher than in the standard influenza vaccine offered each year.

The above comments on the development of a pandemic vaccine are overshadowed somewhat by the rapid spread of H5N1 across Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. Although the sequence of the rapidly spreading H5N1 has not been published, descriptions of the sequence sound much like the recently published H5N1 sequences from Qinghai Lake. Those sequences suggest that the current pandemic vaccine being tested worldwide will not be effective against the H5N1 expected to spread throughout Asia and Europe in the upcoming weeks.

As noted above, the vaccine produced against the 1997 H5N1 that infected 18 people in Hong Kong was not developed because the 2004 H5N1 had evolved away from the vaccine. The pandemic vaccine uses 2 of the 8 genes from H5N1 and analysis of the HA and NA shows why the 1997 vaccine was not effective. There were 20 amino acid differences between 1997 and 2004 in the HA protein and 26 differences in the NA protein.

Consequently, the pandemic vaccine that is currently in clinical trials was developed. Sequences from HA and NA of some of the 2005 H5N1 from Vietnam have been deposited at the Los Alamos National Labs Flu Database and there are just 4 differences between 2004 and 2005 in HA and 3 differences in NA. Consequently an earlier announcement indicated that there was no need to switch vaccine targets.

However, the sequence of the isolates from Qinghai Lake indicate that there will be a major problem using the new vaccine against the H5N1 being spread by migratory birds. As noted above, the new vaccine requires more virus than the human vaccine. The new trial used several dosages to determine that a higher dose was required. In addition, a booster shot was necessary. Thus, the response was not robust and two shots were required. These data suggest that the vaccine requires a close match to be effective and thus far the effectiveness has only been tested in young adults. Although 2005 isolates out of Vietnam may be genetically close enough, isolates from Qinghai clearly are not.

The differences between 2004 H5N1 form Vietnam and 2005 H5N1 from Qinghai Lake are 18 amino acids in HA and 13 amino acids in NA. Thus, the number of differences between H5N1 in 2004 in Vietnam and 2005 in Qinghai Lake is almost as great as the number of differences between 1997 and 2004, which covers 7 years.

Moreover, as H5N1 migrates back to Vietnam and other Asian countries where H5N1 has become endemic, there will be more recombination and more change, further limiting the usefulness of the current vaccine.

Although the suspect cases in Kazakhstan have yet to be confirmed, and Russia has yet to report a human cases, the sequence data suggest that H5N1 from Qinghai will cause significant problems in the upcoming months. Boxun reports indicate that these isolates have already caused significant numbers of deaths in humans, and China has admitted to testing only two people exposed to H5N1 at Qinghai Lake.

The rapid spread of H5N1 across Asia and the expected spread through Europe dictate that a new pandemic vaccine effort be initiated, because it seems likely that the current vaccine will offer little protection to emerging recombinants in the upcoming months."

1) Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

H5N1, Virus X, and a frightening flash from the past: Spanish Flu

(Note to new readers: This post builds on consecutive Pundita posts over the last few days and in particular yesterday's post, in which I expressed reservations about the associations and credentials of Patricia Doyle and Henry Niman -- names that have been linked with recent reports about an outbreak of Ebola virus in China.)

"Hello Pundita:
With regard to your request for information about my credentials and the nature of my involvement with the topic of infectious diseases in China:

I was an equine veterinarian for 20 years until my retirement in 1992. I began researching infectious disease and anti-bioterrorism as a civilian layperson in my retirement. I took many USAMRIID bio-preparedness seminars. I decided to report from a layperson's perspective on biowar diseases and related topics when I learned there were great inadequacies in America's biodefense system.

I have made guest appearances on Jeff Rense's program for almost a decade. He has been instrumental in alerting the public about emerging diseases. However, I am neurologically impaired and speech is extremely difficult for me; I retired from my profession due to illness.

Therefore, if you wish to conduct a phone interview I would suggest you contact Dr. Henry L. Niman. And he is the expert about the topics under discussion. His expertise includes DNA sequencing. Henry has called the H5N1 virus progression quite accurately.

Also, he was the first to discover the WSN/33 lab-developed genes found in pigs in South Korea. I note the WSM/33 are of interest because the human genes were laboratory developed in association with H1N1 Spanish flu vaccine research in 1933. (As to why the genes would be found in present day Korean pigs is a mystery.)

Here is a summary of Dr. Niman's credentials:

Henry L. Niman

Recombinomics, Inc. Founder and President, Henry L. Niman earned a PhD at the University of Southern California in 1978. His dissertation focused on feline retroviral expression in tumors in domestic cats.

He took a postdoctoral position at Scripps Clinic and Research Foundation where he developed monoclonal antibody technology. He fused monoclonal antibody and synthetic peptide technologies and accepted a staff position at Scripps.

In 1982, he developed the flu monoclonal antibody, which is widely used throughout the pharmaceutical, biotech, and research industries in epitope tagging techniques. He also produced a broad panel of monoclonal antibodies against synthetic peptides of oncogenes and growth factors. These monoclonal antibodies were distributed worldwide to researchers by the National Cancer Institute. The antibodies identified novel related proteins which correlated with clinical parameters.

This technology was used to form ProgenX, a cancer diagnostic company that became Ligand Pharmaceuticals. Dr Niman subsequently identified protein expression patterns at the University of Pittsburgh. More recently, he became interested in infectious diseases while at Harvard Medical School. He then founded Recombinomics and discovered how viruses rapidly evolve. These latest findings are the subject of recent patent filings.

With regard to an Ebola mutation in China:

Boxun reports that a physician [in China] treating pig disease patients isolated strains of Ebola.[1][2] There is no verification of the report at this time. I sent the information to ... USAMRIID; as of this date I have not received an authoritative reply verifying the Boxun reports.

Dr. Niman has been concerned about H5N1 combining with WSN/33 and H1N1 (Spanish Flu). Moreover he is concerned about a H5N1/Ebola combination.

Quoting Dr. Niman: "Since both H5N1 and Ebola share a short region of identity, investigation of viral recombinants is warranted."

With regard to the spread of H5N1 [outside East Asia], it does look like Russia has now been hit with H5N1. Reportedly the Russian H5N1 displays some of the European signatures.

Also, I am convinced that China now has two types of H5N1: a new type that we saw in Qinghai and the Asian type close to the one that has spread in Vietnam.[3] [Dr. Niman] expects H5N1 to recombine and alter as it progresses through countries and infects people, birds, and animals, etc.

As for the so-called pig disease [what Pundita terms X Virus] that has been recently reported in China, my feeling is that the streptococcus suis is simply a byproduct or secondary infection. Many pigs have strap suis and it is endemic in China. The last outbreak in 1999 Hong Kong is on record. They did not have a 72 - 82% death rate [as has been reported with X Virus]. I believe that the death rate from strep suis is around 10%.

It is also possible that H1N1 (perhaps with the human WSN/33 genes) might be causing human infections of the pig disease.

Hemorrhagic symptoms have been noted with humans infected with the pig disease [not a symptom associated with strep suis]. I note that H1N1 (Spanish flu) displayed hemorrhagic symptoms in many cases. If the Spanish Flu and H5N1 recombine we could see the combined neurotropic symptoms as well as Ebola-like symptoms.

Boxun also reports entire villages razed.[4] If China's answer to this outbreak is to kill off the sick and contacts of the ill, we have a serious situation. China's government refuses to allow the [World Health Organization] into Sichuan to take samples of the pig disease. I think our government needs to implement some economic sanctions until the samples are shared. I would suggest that outside scientists observe the taking of samples and immediately take possession of the samples.

If you need more information please do contact me.
Dr. Patricia Doyle in New York"

1) Ebola outbreak in China: CCP cover-up... (This Pundita post quotes extensively from an Epoch Times article that mentions the report Doyle references.

2) See About Boxun if you are unfamiliar with Boxun.com

3) Boxun: China confirms Bird Flu in Quinghai is new type.

4) Qinghai Villages Razed

Correction and more cautions

(AUGUST 6 UPDATE
Patricia Doyle responded to my August 5 request for information about her credentials. Her letter also presents Henry Niman's credentials and some eye-popping data about the appearance of genes associated with Spanish Flu in pigs in South Korea. With her permission I have published the letter. See August 6 post H5N1, Virus X....)

I wrote in my earlier post today:

When I observe, "not letting them near," I also mean that the Chinese military is bulldozing entire villages where the X Virus has broken out. Loftus reported last night on three such incidents.

Loftus indeed gave that report, but according to a published report by Henry Niman on Rense.com (which I linked to in the earlier post), the bulldozings were ostensibly related to an outbreak of H5N1, not X Virus.

I have decided to remove the paragraph from the earlier post because it is questionable and it's not central to my point, which is that China's authorities are not allowing WHO near sites where infections have recently broken out.

Also, it has struck me that four names in addition to Boxun keep popping up in relation to reports about X Virus: Patricia Doyle, Henry Niman, Recombinomics.com, and Rense.com and

So Pundita decided to visit Google.

Here, "Patricia Doyle, PhD" is convinced she caught SARS from an Asian grocery store clerk in the USA:

http://www.rense.com/general38/fight.htm

Here, she is telling a complex tale involving Plum Island and just about everything else except maybe sunspots:

http://www.earthchangestv.com/
biology/westnile/plumisland.htm

That doesn't mean that the data Doyle passed along about Plum Island is untrue; it means that all things considered, over time she has demonstrated a pattern of being drawn to sensational stories with a biowar component. That could possibly skew her perception of the X Virus.

No luck in nailing down the nature of Doyle's PhD, although I might make things easy on myself if I simply emailed her to ask.

After spending time on Google today and moseying around the site, I'd say that Rense.com and Rense's radio program are, how to put this...somewhat questionable, if we are trying to think from the viewpoint of a good detective. That doesn't mean Rense's site can't publish valuable data. But a word of caution.

Also, some background on "Dr. Henry Niman, PhD" as he signed himself on one of his articles for Rense.

http://www.the-scientist.com/news/20050520/01

"Henry Niman, founder of Recombinomics, a biotech firm set up to develop vaccine against flu. Niman analyzes data by looking for the possibility that flu viruses are evolving swiftly due to a recombination mechanism.

Niman has analyzed all 610 gene sequences from H5N1 isolates uploaded to Genbank in 2004. He's hopeful sequence data from at least one isolate will likely be made available on Genbank or on Influenza Sequence Database of the Los Alamos National Laboratory in coming weeks."

Not that someone with a vested interest in flu vaccines isn't a reliable source of information, and of course his firm's reputation is on the line. But as a general observation, this is why they have double-blind studies in science; the will to believe can influence even the most sincere people.

The observation should not be read as a description of Doyle, Niman or Rense. But again, a word of caution. And because Pundita is famously a fussbudget I would not want to disappoint my fans; therefore, I am removing Recombinomics from the sidebar blogroll, at least until I learn a little more about Henry Niman.

If readers are groaning at this point -- well, just a few days ago I warned that serious news consumers must learn to think like an intel analyst. One reader wrote to ask what thinking like an intel analyst means. You're looking straight at the meaning. Studying data is a process, not opening a package. Granted, it helps to be a fan of crossword puzzles, mystery novels, police blotters or treasure hunts. Preferably all four.

Sooner or later we will get close to the bottom of the X Virus story. It just takes time, patience, and the instincts of a hunter. However, the really important issue at this time is somehow galvanizing the US government to lean hard on China's government to be more forthcoming with data about H5N1.

The exact nature of the X Virus, which even the China's government virologists might not have figured out yet, is not quite so important at this moment as heading off a H5N1 pandemic. For that, complete transparency and fast communication about the number, type and pattern of H5N1 outbreaks are critical.

It's possible the CCP is in a panic about fresh outbreaks of H5N1 on the mainland; if so, it could take very strong language and threat of economic sanctions from other governments to help them to snap out of it. Frankly, we're now in a race against time when it comes to H5N1 -- whether or not the virus has mixed genetic material with a mutated Ebola virus.

H5N1: Clear and Present Danger vs Tinfoil Hat

(12:30 PM, EDT update is posted at the end of this essay. This post builds on discussion in earlier Pundita posts over the past few days.)

Rense.com has reprinted a translation of a BBS story about the three village bulldozings.

http://www.rense.com/general67/recomb.htm

These villages are in Qinghai region (site of mass duck deaths from H5N1 at Qinghai Lake in May) and seem to be connected with H5N1, not a mutated form of Ebola.

However, this is another indication of why the situation is so confusing: it reflects seemingly two different infectious diseases. Unless we are dealing with a mutated form of H5N1 mixed with a form of Ebola virus. I applaud Yale's courage in considering that possibility; Pundita is just not ready to run that far with reports of an outbreak in China of Ebola virus or a mutated form. In my view, the entire story is in danger of collapsing from confusing/ conflicting sets of data.

Rense.com isn't helping by putting up a story speculating that the Qinghai outbreak is connected with China's biowar program.

http://www.rense.com/general67/tweak.htm

One item that is not speculation: we're now just weeks from the date that the wild birds/fowl resting at Qinghai start their migration again, which can cross them with migrating flocks from US and Europe. See the (UK) Guardian piece: Avian flu casts shadow over beauty of China's bird lake.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/
story/0,3604,1539974,00.html

I would put nothing past China's military, including gross incompetance at managing their biowar experiments. But Rense's post about biowar makes it easy to dismiss as Tinfoil Hat any sober discussion about possible mutations of H5N1. That drains impetus for the US public to pressure Congress to pressure China to allow outside agencies to collect data on the most recent outbreaks. Yet pressure of this kind is the critical need at this time.

Ebola mutations aside, it is beyond question that H5N1 is on the loose. Attempts to stamp it out through flock cullings and vaccination of chickens have not worked to this date.

Thus far, no hard data that H5N1 has exchanged genetic material with a virus or bacteria infecting swine. But swine are the laboratory for mixing bird virus mutations that can readily exchange genetic material with human viruses. From there, we're looking at H2H (human to human transmission).

So unless China and all other countries fully cooperate in sharing data, H2H of mutated H5N1 (with or without mixture with Ebola virus) can get the jump on humanity, even as early as this fall.

UPDATE
Here is the link to the English version of Boxun.com.

Note the refreshing language attached to one update: "Unofficial messages (as people post the messages may face punishment, it is better to believe what they say)."

Well, if Pundita is not a believing sort, we do take the comments seriously.

One anonymous Boxun poster has this brief and somewhat cryptic news:

"Jingdezhen, JiangXi Province has this disease now."

Which disease? The X Virus or H5N1? We can only wonder.

But for readers who like to stick pins on maps, we have Guangdong and Sichuan provinces where pigs seem to be flying, and now possibly JiangXi.

And for readers who love to plow through message boards, you might want to plow through the recent messages relating to H5N1 and X Virus posted on the Pro Med message board, which is associated with the International Society for Infectious Diseases. One senses from some messages that at least some in the field are making an effort to wend their way through the tangle of China's official version of X Virus.

A cautionary note

Readers sorting through the data presented in my two earlier posts today and the earlier ones I posted on the X Virus might want to keep two points in mind:

When you study the historical pattern of the Boxun reports -- the ones on SARS and Avian Flu -- it jumps out that

(1) They were way ahead of WHO and the CDC reports to the public, and

(2) The Boxun versions, not the official Chinese ones, turned out be correct when China's authorities could no longer keep a lid on the situations.

Thus, I would be weighted to give careful consideration to the recent Boxun reports on the X Virus -- which, it does not seem, is limited to Sichuan province.

To be sure, caution is needed while studying such complex, alarming data. Yet one does want to approach the data with an open mind rather than skepticism. The stakes are too high in this situation to warrant dismissal of the Chinese doctors' reports on Boxun on the grounds they are not supported by hard evidence.

Of course the reports can't be supported because China's authorities are not allowing WHO to take any kind of forensic samples from the diseased patients, according to John Loftus' report last night on John Batchelor's program. They're not letting WHO representatives near the infection sites.

As for leaving to laypersons the tricky task of analyzing medical data, I have bad news. If not laypersons -- who else should be analyzing the data while medical officialdom sits on its hands?

It took the World Health Organization until August 3 to even mention the outbreak in Sichuan. And the mention ignored glaring anomalies in the data they published on their website. In other words, WHO simply quoted China's official version about the outbreak.

Last night marked the third night that John Loftus reported on the X Virus. This does not mean he'll be reporting on the situation tonight, but Pundita is certainly tuning in for his usual report segment during John Batchelor's program, which is around 10:35 PM, EDT or 11:05 PM, EDT, right after the radio station break and news.

When pigs fly

Someone posted a message at Current Events to note that yesterday the World Health Organization finally got around to mentioning the outbreak of virus in Sichuan. But there is something very odd about the WHO announcement when weighed against their own published description of Streptococcus suis.

Steve at Word Unheard picked up on the oddity in his first post today on the X Virus and questions surrounding it in Ebola Outbreak in China: More questions than answers. But then, who knows? Maybe Chinese pigs can fly. Could be a requirement for pigs living under a military dictatorship that caters to foreign business interests.

Steve's second post today continues his heroic attempt to sort through and untangle the data building up about the outbreak.

About Boxun

Yale Global Online joins the dicussion about the Ebola-like nature of the Sichuan outbreak. YGO quotes from a July 28 (Singapore) Staits Times story by Andy Ho titled China Bug – Is It Ebola-like Bird Flu?

Or cut and paste this URL:
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=6077

A second Pundita post yesterday evening continues my discussion about reports claiming that the mystery Sichuan disease is a mutated form of Ebola virus. The second post quotes The Epoch Times, which mentions Boxun.

The Chinese-language Boxun.com medical website has been the primary source of several breaking stories about SARS, Avian Flu, and the Sichuan "X" Virus and Beijing's attempts to cover up the disease outbreaks.

Thus, I thought readers trying to following the fast-moving and highly complex medical news stories relating to the outbreaks might want to learn about Boxun. A website called Rense.com has republished a short South China Morning Post story about Boxun, which is itself a part of some important stories relating to investigations of the disease outbreaks.

Click here for the story titled Reports from China Point to Major H5N1 Coverup, or copy and paste the URL:

http://www.rense.com/general67/cover.htm

Ebola outbreak in China; CCP cover-up in the name of "greatness, honor and correctness"

UPDATE December 25, 2008 2:45 PM Eastern time
I thought I had inserted in a note in this post back in 2005 to warn that the Ebola story was most likely a crock but clearly I'm just catching up with correcting my oversight. Apologies to readers who have come across this post 'cold' -- without the background provided by my later reports on the story, and who are unaware of how the story progressed.

It took me and several of my readers, who chipped in help, weeks to wend our way through the labyrinth of data connected with the mystery outbreak in China.

With regard to the Ebola angle, at the end of the maze was one doctor in Shenzhen City who was most probably unaware of the real symptoms of Ebola virus, and in any case wrongly identified a symptom he noted as similar to an Ebola symptom.

See my Chinese Puzzle post for a summary of my investigation and for links to all the Pundita posts about the outbreak and related issues, or go directly to the September 30 post, China's Ebola virus reports: finally, a break in the case to learn about the bizarre twist in the Ebola 'outbreak' story.

The true cause of the illness remains a mystery because China's health ministry continued to withhold hard data about it. But as you will see from reading the September 30, 2005 post, at least the dreaded Preston virus has been laid to rest -- until it once again strikes an unsuspecting news reader.

****************************************
Below are quotes from a 8/1 Epoch Times story Sichuan’s 'Mystery Disease' may be Ebola Virus according to Interview Transcript...

But first I caution the reader to take with a grain of salt any attempts to dismiss the doctor's report simply by attempting to discredit The Epoch Times. The paper, whatever it's connection to the Falun Gong, has become like The Washington Times (which has a very controversial founder, Reverend Moon) in that it is an opposition press outlet.

Indeed, The Epoch Times is China's only real opposition media to China's Communist Party media outlets.* The Epoch Times would gain nothing and loose much hard-won trust by passing on wild claims about the outbreak of a lethal disease. And, as I mentioned in the earlier post, the paper helped break the SARS story and Beijing's initial attempt to cover up the disease.

Okay; here is part of the 8/1 story. Italics emphasis mine throughout:

"[...] On July 24 the Sichuan Health Department’s materials reported that a disease of unknown origin had occurred in Sichuan’s Ziyang City [...]

"On July 29 the Mainland website “Free China Forum” BBS posted an interview transcript with Doctor Wang, who had examined the Sichuan mystery disease. Doctor Wang stated that he had received a phone call from the Sichuan Health Department on June 2, saying that an unusual death had been discovered in the local area, and that a sample of the virus would be delivered to him. This occurred 22 days before the July news report.

"Doctor Wang said that the virus sample specimen was examined as soon as it was received and a type of Ebola virus was extracted from the specimen. When asked why “low dissemination” was added to the name of the Ebola virus in China, Doctor Wang explained that it was done to reduce public concern, and also because a variation of the Ebola virus had actually occurred in China.

"Examination Results Show Ebola Virus
Doctor Wang explained: “They started the examination quickly after receiving the sample, they extracted SZ77++A3231 virus from the sample, which is a kind of Ebola virus.

"The previous classification of Ebola in the country used the EBO – location (where it was discovered) – model; later on, for unknown reasons, the news of classification leaked out. Therefore the classification method changed, [they] abandoned EBO, increasing the infection extent, infection speed, etc.

"The disease that occurred at the beginning of June is SZ77++A3231 virus, sometimes we do not specify the source region but directly use ++A3231, so that people will not think of the Ebola virus.”

"Doctor Wang has also participated in similar work in other areas of China besides Sichuan. The CCP formed three departments specifically to conduct these examinations, so obviously Sichuan is not the only area to have experienced the illness caused by the Ebola virus.

"Many Mainland Chinese recognize that the current mystery disease in Sichuan is the EB-SZ77 type Ebola virus. There is not yet an official name for the disease. It is difficult to give it an official name because the virus changes so fast, and may spread through a third medium

"First Case of Ebola in Shenzhen City Early this Year
The earliest occurrence of this Ebola virus disease can be traced back to Shenzhen city in Guangdong Province. On March 25, 2005, The Epoch Times published an article on the first appearance of the Ebola virus in Shenzhen during February. The virus had already caused several deaths and cases of ‘missing people’

"[Editor’s note: rather than accurately reporting the cause of death, the authorities simply claim that victims are ‘missing’.]

"This article mentioned that medical personnel who had been working in hospitals for years said that they had never seen an illness like it. The bodies of those who died of the illness appeared to be dissolved, much like the Ebola virus in Africa. The main spread of the virus was through blood, causing doctors to die after contact with infected blood.

"On March 26, Shenzhen Customs and related hospitals and government departments held a confidential meeting to pass an order from higher authorities to strengthen the hygiene-related work. An insider also disclosed that at dawn on March 26, another suspected Ebola virus death case occurred in Nanao Town, Shenzhen.

"There are indications that the Ebola virus was already spreading in Mainland China. The CCP blocked this information, telling the outside world that the deaths were caused by the advanced stages of AIDS. On March 29, China’s Ministry of Health announced that, “Presently, this virus has not been found in the mainland.”

"The source of the information regarding the death case in Nanao Town couldn’t be contacted further, and the company and hospitals denied the existence of the Nanao Town case or any existence of a patient record.

"All websites in mainland China have now started using official language to report this case. Although the Ministry of Health said that the (Ebola) virus has not been found on the mainland, according to inside information on July 14, frequent confidential meetings were held by the Guangdong Province government, Guangzhou military region, Shenzhen municipal government and Shenzhen Customs during late June and early July, discussing the slow spread of the Ebola virus in Guangdong Province.

"People were strictly prohibited from spreading information about the Ebola virus and bird flu that appeared in Guangdong and media reports were also forbidden.

"CCP Cover-up Under Threat Once International Organizations Involved
Why don’t CCP officials allow the World Health Organization to investigate and provide help? Veterinary pathology scholar Liu Zhenyi said that the CCP has always flaunted its “greatness, honor, and correctness”, and is most concerned about saving face. This appears to be a higher priority than people’s lives.

"Guan Yi, scholar and bird flu expert at Hong Kong University disclosed in Nature magazine that bird flu had infected southern China. Chinese officials subsequently shut down his laboratory, slandered him and said that his laboratory was “illegal.”

"Doctor Wang, quoted earlier, who examined this strange Sichuan disease, also believes that the CCP would not allow the involvement of the World Health Organization because it would be extremely disadvantageous for the international image of the CCP. It wouldn’t be just a medical question, but could lead to exposure on issues such as the local medical environment, survival conditions, environmental pollution and political corruption."

Pundita's only comment
Well. At least we now know the CCP's reasons for the cover-up! By gum, that's half the battle against a lethal infectious disease for which there is no cure. Now all we have to do is nail down in the name of what the US Congress, White House and State Department have remained silent in the face of the CCP cover-up.

* For more on The Epoch Times, see Pundita post Epoch Times vs Xinhua News Agency.

Now Pundita must return to her vacation before she catches h-ll.

CHINA ALERT: Mystery disease reportedly mutated Ebola virus; disease spreading fast

NOTE
This post is the first in what turned out to be a series of essays and a great deal of investigation on the mystery illness. After a month of research, I was unable to find one shred of evidence that the illness was connected to any form of Ebola. What I found was a great deal of speculation about anonymous/anecdotal reports -- and one of the key reports about Ebola, while reportedly from a Chinese doctor, described symptoms that actually ruled out Ebola.

While this does not mean that Ebola can be entirely ruled out, it does mean that with no medical evidence whatsoever to back up anecedotal reports about the mystery illness, the reader should be cautious about any claims regarding the nature of the mystery.
Pundita
* * * * * * * * *
I'm interrupting my vacation to report on this critically important story. John Loftus* first reported more than a week ago to John Batchelor's radio audience that the 'mystery virus' that broke out China's Sichuan province "seemed to be split -- half Ebola, half AIDS."

Given the seriousness of the implications I decided to sit on the story until I'd gotten some additional confirmation, even though Recombinomics had passed along Boxun speculations about Ebola in China as early as July 19.

Last night Loftus gave another report to John Batchelor's audience in which he reiterated that his sources confirm that at least eight Chinese scientists and/or physicians have reported:

The disease ostensibly transmitted to humans by contact with infected pigs in China's Sichuan province is a mutated Ebola virus. Loftus added about the virus, "Think part Ebola, part AIDS."

Here are the rest of my notes on Loftus' report last night:

> Reportedly there have been many more human deaths from the disease than China's authorities are acknowledging.

> There are reports that "large concentration camps" have been set up in Sichuan where Chinese with symptoms from the illness are being taken "to die."

> The disease has an 82% fatality rate among humans.

> The disease has spread to hundreds of villages in Sichuan.

> Loftus has gotten confirmation that eight Chinese scientists and/or physicians who initially passed their data (about the Ebola connection) to the World Health Organization (WHO) have been arrested by the authorities in China and are being held incommunicado.**

> China's authorities are not allowing WHO to take samples of the virus and have stated that the number of deaths from the virus is a "state secret." ***

> It can't be established at this point whether the X virus, shall we term it, has exchanged genetic material with H5N1. Loftus found it suggestive (or passed along what others have noted) that there is a possible link:

The X virus could be connected with hundreds of ducks who died in Sichuan and were eaten by villagers. Initially these ducks were reportedly infected with H5N1 but this situation is murky because China's authorities have withheld much data. Also, whether this situation could be connected with the reported swine deaths is unclear.

> Loftus passed along his sources' speculation that there has been a fowl to swine to human transmission of the X virus. As to whether there is human to human (H2H) transmission, this is not established because China's health agencies have not shared key data with outside health agencies.

> If the X virus is carried by migratory birds/fowl, as with H5N1, the disease could quickly spread to other countries even without H2H.

Pundita's observations on last night's report
As with several John Loftus reports, this one should be considered "intelligence" rather than evidence. The most I can say with certainty is that John's sources in Western intelligence agencies and militaries are excellent and that from his report, clearly they believe at this stage that the X virus is a mutated form of Ebola.

With regard to Beijing's covering up the extent of the outbreak -- the historical and present patterns are so well established, and verified from so many sources, that I consider it an established fact.

Other sources on the story
Check the Pundita sidebar for websites that report on Avian flu virus. Also, I recommend that readers regularly check The Epoch Times daily to look for updates on the X virus, H5N1 in China, and Beijing's moves to cover up the X virus outbreak and stonewall international health agencies. This July 31 Epoch Times story is focused on asking whether there is a H5N1 pandemic already underway
but it also provides background on the X virus outbreak.

Despite Beijing's ongoing attempts to discredit The Epoch Times, I found the paper's July 31 report to be well-sourced. It's to be noted that The Epoch Times helped break the SARS story, which Beijing also tried to cover up.

US foreign policy implications
Whatever the exact nature of the X virus, it is beyond question that the authorities in China have not provided the US Center for Disease Control with data about the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in China. It is past time for the US Department of State to issue a strongly worded demand for transparency and recommend sanctions if Beijing does not comply.

* If you have questions about John Loftus' reports on the mutated virus kindly direct them to him at: loftus@intelligencesummit.org

** Chinese reporters (I speculate these might include the above-mentioned scientists) who filed stories with Boxun about a possible Ebola connection to the virus have also been arrested by the Chinese authorities. See The Epoch Times story above.

*** China's authorities have also designated as a "state secret" the number of human deaths in China from H5N1. This means that WHO, CDC and other health agencies are lacking critical data to help them track the spread of H5N1 in humans.

The Name of the Four Horsemen's Squire is Polygamy

"Dear Pundita:
I just read your Friday post about Oriana Fallaci's criticism of Islam. I understand that she is angry but will you please give Muslims a break? The Muslim community in America is as outraged as she is about the terrorists and their threats against Europe. I and every other Muslim I know condemns the terrorists. We're working very hard to counter the wrong impression that Islam is a religion of violence and to raise awareness in the community that Muslims need to take strong action to counter the hate-filled actions and speech of the terrorists.
Ameena in Brooklyn"

Dear Ameena:
While Pundita applauds all efforts by civilians to denounce terrorism, I think putting al Qaeda and similar crews out of business is principally a job for militaries. What I see as a civilian job, one that should be joined by leaders from all religions and governments, is unsticking our collective head from the sand and grappling with four huge problems now confronting humanity:

1. The developed democracies cannot keep footing the bill for people who practice polygamy unless the people submit to forced sterilization.

2. The developed democracies cannot continue to support people who follow practices that institutionalize misogyny and barbaric customs directed against women and female children.

3. The same democracies cannot continue to tolerate in their midst people who want all the benefits that come from living in a society of modern democratic laws but also want to follow tribal laws from ye olde country.

4. The peoples of the democratic nations cannot continue to deploy Orwellian language and a double standard just because they want cheap goods and labor or a coveted natural resource from a despotic regime. For example, democratic peoples need to stop referring to China as a "quasi-communist pro-free market authoritarian state." China is a military dictatorship and should be treated as such

From my reading of Oriana's essay, at least the portion I quoted, I'd say that to the extent she's angry, the anger comes from a sense of betrayal as a Catholic who is trying to follow the guidance laid down by the Vatican leadership. She perceives the leadership as applying a double standard, one that now helps place Italy in clear and present danger.

Religions practicing a double standard for pragmatic reasons is an old story. However, what greatly concerns me is that African men are playing Christians against Muslims so they can have as many wives as they want. If the Christians say you have accept monogamy to be a Christian, the Africans reply, "I'll just go be a Muslim where I can have four wives."

If the Muslims say you can't have unlimited wives the Africans reply, "I'll just go be a Christian where they're willing to look the other way." And if the Muslims protest, the Africans retort that many Muslims exceed the four-wives rule.

I do not know how widespread this playoff game has been during the past half century. One thing I know is that no person of decent heart should continue to support the game. Polygamy has created situations on the African continent that have led to horrific human suffering -- while leaving it to the developed countries to foot much of the bill in the attempt to save people who continue to breed like flies.

You have expressed great concern about the image of Islam. I too have great concerns:

One is that the United States has finite resources going into an era that is seeing climate shifts and vast populations unprepared to survive without help from the USA.

Two is that economically depressed regions in the USA are not getting enough help from federal government.

I am seeing these two situations rush at each other as the early part of this century unfolds.

(See Pundita post Paw, a Revenuer's at the door... for a brief discussion of how polygamy supports the clan business model in tribalized societies. Attempts to phase out polygamy in a society must be made in concert with modernizing business practices.)

Wimpy Europeans? Hardly!

Below is a translation of an excerpt from Oriana Fallaci's The Enemy We Treat as a Friend, which I have cribbed from Belmont Club's July 25 essay titled Cassandra.

The Cassandra essay also publishes a link to the column in Italian, excerpts from the Economist and (UK) Guardian's predictably hysterical reactions to Fallaci's rant, and includes Bemont Club's thoughtful and elegant if somewhat ambiguous comments about the flap. Pundita's comments are less elegant and ambigious:

If you can't speak your mind when you're 76 years old and sick with cancer, when can you? Give 'em hell, Oriana!

It's time for Muslims worldwide to do some heavy-duty soul searching about a religion that has applauded wiring children with explosives and committing atrocities against females.

And while Pundita is bowled over with gratitude that some Muslim hardliners are now talking about cooperating with the war against terrorism (see second Pundita post for Friday), this about-face does not address Fallaci's central point. There are by all accounts a large number of Muslims who would still like to see their religion rule the world through force and by the destruction of all other religions. And many have given indication they're prepared to act on that wish.

Before turning over the floor to Oriana, I note one thing that bin Laden and his crew don't seem to understand about the Europeans: they have been trying hard to make nice during recent decades not because they are wimps but because they were so war-like for so many centuries. The terrorists should keep it up, if they want to learn what Europeans can be like on a really bad hair day.

Here are the quotes from The Enemy We Treat as a Friend:

"Yes, it's true: In newspapers that in the best of cases pharasaically opposed me with a conspiracy of silence now appear titles using my concepts and words. - "War Against the West."; "Cult of Death"; "The Suicide of Europe"; Wake up, Italy! Wake up!"

Yes, it's true: [Those] In speaking of Londonistan ... are now saying what I did when I wrote that in each one of our cities exists another city. A subterranean city; equal to Beirut when it was invaded by Arafat in the 70s. A foreign city that speaks its own language and observes its own customs; a Muslim city where terrorists go about their business undisturbed and, thus undisturbed, plan our deaths. ...

"Yes it's true: Now, even the fifth columnists and the imams express their hypocritical condemnations, their mendacious loathing, their false solidarity with the relatives of the victims. Yes, it's true: Now, thorough searches are being made in the cases of the accused Muslims; suspects are arrested; perhaps it will even be decided to expel them.

"But in substance, nothing has changed. ... I am also troubled because it goes along with, and thereby reinforces that which I consider the error committed by Papa Wojtyla: not to fight as much as he should have, in my opinion, against the illiberal and anti-democratic -- no, cruel -- essence of Islam.

During these last four years, I have done nothing but ask myself why a warrior like Wojtyla, a leader so singular who contributed more than anyone else to the downfall of the Soviet empire and, therefore, of Communism, showed himself to be so weak toward a disease worse than the Soviet empire or Communism.

"A disease that, above all, targets Christianity (and Judaism) for destruction. I have done nothing but ask myself why he did not inveigh openly against what was happening (and is happening), for example, in Sudan where the fundamentalist regime was practicing (and is practicing) slavery.

Where Christians were eliminated (are eliminated) by the millions. Why he was silent about Saudi Arabia where anyone with a Bible in hand or a cross around his neck was (and is) treated like a scum to be put to death.

"Still today, there is that silence I don't understand ...

"Will the massacre touch us too? -- will it really touch us the next time? Oh, yes. I haven't the slightest doubt. I've never had the slightest doubt. I've been saying this, too, for the last four years.

"And I add: They have not yet attacked us [only] because of their need for a landing zone, a bridgehead, a handy outpost named "Italy." ... But soon, they will go on a rampage. Bin Laden himself has promised it -- explicitly, clearly, precisely. ..."

No one can argue with that last observation. Darn tootin' he's promised it.

For more on Fallaci's column, one of Belmont Club's readers added a comment to the Cassandra essay that includes links to a complete English translation in two parts. The entire column is worth the read:

http://mysteryachievement.blogspot.com/2005/07/
enemy-we-treat-like-friend-part-i.html

http://mysteryachievement.blogspot.com/2005/07/
enemy-we-treat-like-friend-part-ii.html

Turning tide in the war on terror

Max Boot has not exactly redeemed himself in Pundita's eyes with the following opinion piece but I thank him for bringing to a 'national' readership some very good news via the Los Angeles Times.

He cites various data, including a Pew poll, which suggests anti-Americanism is on the wane since the Iraq invasion and anti-al Qaeda sentiment, even among Muslim countries, is on the rise. The latter includes rising sentiment against suicide bombings.

One of the jaw-droppers in Boot's piece is the news that

Jihad Al Khazen, a rabidly anti-American and anti-Israeli columnist for the Arabic daily Al-Hayat, wrote that "the Arabs and Muslims must help the U.S." in the war on terror.

If the trend lasts, it's a vindication for President Bush and the other Coalition government leaders' unwavering stand against terrorism and the US administration's commitment to real democracy.

I consider Boot's observations to be so important that I am breaking protocol and republishing the entire piece here (with major thanks to John Batchelor's website for printing the piece via TMS Reprints):

July 27, 2005
Our Extreme Makeover
Opinion by Max Boot
for latimes.com (Los Angeles Times)
Hat tip: John Batchelor Show website.

"Favorable impressions of the U.S. are being detected around the world, including inside Muslim countries.

"We interrupt the latest reports about terrorist atrocities with a news bulletin: Support for suicide bombings and Islamic extremism, along with hatred of the Great Satan, is actually waning in the Muslim world.

"If that comes as a surprise, it's because of the old adage that good news is no news. While the increase of anti-Americanism around the world and especially in Muslim countries has been exhaustively covered since 2001, not enough attention has been paid to an important survey released in the last month that found global opinion shifting in a more positive direction.

"The public opinion poll was conducted by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, hardly a bastion of neocon zealotry. (It's co-chaired by Madeleine Albright.) Over the last three years, Pew surveys have charted surging anti-Americanism in response to the invasion of Iraq and other actions of the Bush administration. But its most recent poll -- conducted in May, with 17,000 respondents in 17 countries -- also found evidence that widespread antipathy is abating.

"The percentage of people holding a favorable impression of the United States increased in Indonesia (+23 points), Lebanon (+15), Pakistan (+2) and Jordan (+16). It also went up in such non-Muslim nations as France, Germany, Russia and India.

"What accounts for this shift? The answer varies by country, but analysts point to waning public anger over the invasion of Iraq, gratitude for the massive U.S. tsunami relief effort and growing conviction that the U.S. is serious about promoting democracy.

"There is also increasing aversion to America's enemies, even in the Islamic world. The Pew poll found that "nearly three-quarters of Moroccans and roughly half of those in Pakistan, Turkey and Indonesia see Islamic extremism as a threat to their countries."

"Support for suicide bombing has declined dramatically in all the Muslim countries surveyed except Jordan, with its large anti-Israeli Palestinian population. The number of those saying that "violence against civilian targets is sometimes or often justified" has dropped by big margins in Lebanon (-34 points) and Indonesia (-12) since 2002, and in the last year in Pakistan (-16) and Morocco (-27).

"This has been accompanied by a cratering of support for Osama bin Laden everywhere except (unfortunately) Pakistan and Jordan. Since 2003, approval ratings for the world's No. 1 terrorist have slid in Indonesia (-23 points), Morocco (-23), Turkey (-8) and Lebanon (-12).

"What accounts for this decline? Primarily the actions of the terrorists themselves. Since 9/11, most of the atrocities carried out by Islamist groups have occurred in Muslim nations — the latest examples are the bombings in Sharm el Sheik, Egypt, and bombings too numerous to mention in Iraq — and most of the victims have been Muslims. Not surprisingly, this hasn't endeared the jihadists to a lot of their coreligionists.

"Yet even attacks on the West no longer win knee-jerk approval in the Muslim world. After the 7/7 London bombings, Islamic groups and intellectuals who have seldom had a cross word for suicide bombings were pretty unequivocal in their condemnation.

"To cite only one example of many, Jihad Al Khazen, a rabidly anti-American and anti-Israeli columnist for the Arabic daily Al-Hayat, wrote that "the Arabs and Muslims must help the U.S." in the war on terror. There are still plenty of Muslims who blame the victims for bringing terrorism upon themselves, but there is also a growing countervailing attitude.

"Muslim opinion also challenges jihadist orthodoxy that proclaims that giving power to the people, rather than to mullahs, is "un-Islamic." The latest Pew poll found "large and growing majorities in Morocco (83%), Lebanon (83%), Jordan (80%) and Indonesia (77%) — as well as pluralities in Turkey (48%) and Pakistan (43%) — [that] say democracy can work well and is not just for the West."

"That's exactly what President Bush has been saying. Though his actions and rhetoric have been denounced as "unrealistic" and "extremist" by his American and European critics, it turns out that Muslims welcome it. "Roughly half of respondents in Jordan and nearly two-thirds of Indonesians think the U.S. favors democracy in their countries," the new Pew study said. "About half of the public in Lebanon also takes that view." Imagine that: Bush's actions might actually be making Middle Easterners more pro-American!

"Of course, public opinion is fickle, and there is still a lot of hostility toward the U.S. out there.

"Even a small minority of extremists can cause mayhem similar to the London bombings. But at least there are some signs that the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world is far from hopeless."

Copyright 2005 Los Angeles Times

Liberal Democracy: Achieving balance between the civic person and the private person

"Hi Pundita,
I think you might enjoy my proposal for a "post-modern paternalism" as move towards a more holistic mindset of what it takes to create healthy government; I would certainly appreciate your critique. Basically, I am trying (in my own small way) to shift the development debate from institutions and confrontation to values and relationship. Does that align with what you see as being needed?
Dr. Ernie in California"

Dear Dr. Ernie:
With regard to your desire to shift the development debate from institutions and confrontation to values and relationship -- well, the entire concept of development in this context is G2G -- government to government. So it's really not possible to shift the debate away from institutions.

With regard to confrontation -- it's just because the US government spent more than a decade avoiding confrontations at the United Nations that we now find American values under literal fire.

The US government's desire to fit in with the group, to go along with NATO allies and support globalized business at any cost to American democracy, has put us in the position we are now: in a very hot global war.

So, for future reference, we should remember to confront situations before they require a military solution.

But Pundita gets your drift and appreciates it: as private citizens we should strive to create relationships that are based on our personal value system. Yet if 9/11 has taught us anything, we should also pay more attention to our civic duties.

If we can't serve in the military or National Guard, we should do what we can to support the troops, even if it's only sending an occasional letter of thanks. If we can't serve in the police or fire department, we can join neighborhood watch groups and donate what we can to organizations that support the fire and police organizations.

The United States of America has a society that allows citizens to do pretty much their own thing: pursue their private goals and follow the beat of their own drum. Yet not even the world's most powerful society can remain strong, unless there is a strong sense of civic duty that transcends politics and personal values. That's what it means to be a citizen.

We could all do with paying more attention to the meaning.

I suspect from reading your proposal that you are working at the micro-level or want to work at that level -- as you observed in "a small way." Pundita is a big fan of micro-level development projects. However, when I write about development I address the macro-level: the multilateral development concept and in particular the development bank 'model' and how it relates to US foreign policy and defense.

I've given considerable discussion to the topics simply because the American public is very poorly informed about them. Americans have not been on the receiving end of multilateral development projects and policies, so it's quite understandable that the topics have flown under the radar of the public's awareness.

Pundita has done everything but stand on her head to warn that actually America has been on the receiving end, only in ways that are not readily apparent until one is very familiar with the topics.

I've done the same in my writing about TOC (transnational organized crime) and corruption in government, which have also received little attention in the US media, and I've pointed out the link between these topics, multilateral aid and development, foreign policy and defense.

In short, there is a matrix of situations that critically impact US military defense and foreign policy but are not treated as such, either by the media or the US government.

I'm happy to report that since I started this blog in November 2004 there has been some progress at the government level in officially recognizing the matrix. And when Paul Wolfowitz came to the World Bank, he named government corruption as the greatest threat to democracy since the Soviet communist threat, which certainly helped back up my argument.

However, the World Bank is still refusing to allow an independent audit -- they claim they'd have to change their charter for this to happen. To my knowledge the same issue is not even on the table for USAID, the "America" desk at the State Department, and the US Congress.

So we are still a very long way from addressing in any meaningful way the issue of corruption, and its intersection with US-backed development lending and aid.

I appreciate your interest in the Pundita blog, which came about because of one essay I wrote about development issues. Many readers are initially drawn to the Pundita blog because they learn of a particular essay that deals with an area of their special interest, such as development, the democracy doctrine, terrorism, US-EU relations, and so on.

However, from letters I've received, it seems that most who visit this blog regularly learn by reading through the Pundita archives, or by browsing the Pundita 'theme' links posted on the sidebar, that I am dealing with a range of issues connected with US foreign policy in the 21st Century -- or what I think should be considered a vital part of foreign policy for this era.

In this I am following the direction laid down by America's president and commander-in-chief. President Bush has said this is to be Liberty's Century and that he wants the US government to take the lead in actualizing this ideal. In other words, he wants to see genuine democracy take root around the world. So I ask, "How to make this happen?" then I try to examine the obstacles and where we are now in relation to the goal.

This approach tends to neglect news about US relations with individual countries; I have given considerable attention to China, Russia and Mexico only because I see them as textbook illustrations of US foreign policy failures in dealing with less developed countries and/or emerging democracies.

And I've given almost no attention to news about trade issues because that aspect of US foreign policy is well known to the general public.

Also, I've given a huge amount of attention to a matrix of situations that are so outside the general public's awareness and media discussion as to be completely off the radar, but which profoundly affect US foreign relations.

I don't know how to term this matrix, except maybe to call it, "What Americans and especially Americans in big business, the news media, State Department, Pentagon, Congress and the White House need to know about peoples in really old cultures who are stuck in their ways and very proud, and who know they have to change their ways but who don't appreciate peoples from very young cultures who act like know-it-alls just because they're rich."

I sense from the wording of your proposal that this matrix is also of interest to you. If so, let it be known that we here in Pundita-land -- this would include even the squirrel member of Pundita's foreign policy team -- applaud all intelligent efforts to bridge the old-young gap in US foreign policy relations. It is this gap, rather than the communism/ capitalism, democracy/ despotism, WTO membership/ nonmembership gaps that is the most important one for American foreign relations to bridge.

I am also hugely interested in the connection between US news reporting and foreign policy; indeed, if I were two people I would have a blog that is dedicated to the topic. There is a tremendous amount of expertise in this country that can't connect with foreign policy situations because Americans with the expertise are simply unaware of the situations.

The truth is that a very small number of people have been running US foreign policy and a small number of academics have had a huge impact on foreign policy -- including the defense component.

These people and their actions are almost totally off the radar of American public awareness. They operate behind a screen of public unawareness, although since the rise of the blogosphere a little light has pierced the screen.

Much more light is needed; many more Americans need to get involved in monitoring the actions of these people and the organizations that employ them. I have been known to use the literary equivalent of a one-ton boom to get across this point.

As to how the few have gotten away with so much for so long, because the US news media has had a long-standing policy:

If it doesn't have to do with battles between Democrats and Republicans, then Americans should be focused on sports, entertainment, weather and the sleaziest crime stories.

That, I submit, is the true reason the vast majority of US news media outlets have trashed the US invasion of Iraq and hate the idea of a global war on terror: good coverage of international issues costs buckets of money unless you're real smart like John Batchelor, who clearly has no trouble doing good coverage on a virtual shoestring budget.

So while the majority of Americans can recount in minute detail the Scott Peterson and Michael Jackson trials they still can't find Damascus on a map, much less Basra.

How the American electorate is supposed to oversee foreign policy conducted by the government of the world's lone superpower nation under such circumstances -- I dunno, Dr. Ernie. I just don't know.

So that's the Pundita blog: we spend our time pushing peanuts across a sawdust floor with our nose. By sheer dint of effort, we direct our readers' attention to stuff that goes on behind the major media's white noise screen.

If I were three people, perhaps I would have a blog that deals solely with the multilateral development angle in US foreign policy. And if I were four, I'd surely have a blog that only tracks instances of government corruption and the moves of international crime syndicates.

But for now I am focused on sketching the big picture of foreign policy in what is a new century for the West.