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Sunday, May 2

Boston water main break: Quick fix might work to fix pipe by Monday

See earlier post today for background.

From Associated Press, 7:40 AM EDT May 2, 2010
Crews race to fix break in Boston's water supply

By GLEN JOHNSON (AP)

BOSTON — Crews welded a replacement metal collar Sunday they hoped would provide a quicker-than-expected fix for a break in a major pipe that cut off the supply of clean water to 2 million people in Boston and its suburbs.

Adding to the pressure was an unseasonably warm spring forecast for the area, with the temperature predicted to reach a summer-like 88 degrees.

There also were economic and social concerns: Restaurants in suburban Lexington shut down Saturday night, unable to wash dishes or serve customers clean water, while police in Revere had to be called into a BJ's Wholesale Club after a run on bottled water turned unruly.

The breach was reported Saturday morning in Weston, about 10 miles west of Boston. It was in a coupling holding together two sections of a 10-foot-wide metal pipe that carries 250 million gallons a day from the Quabbin Reservoir to some 750,000 households in 30 communities.

Officials initially said they hoped a repair could be made in days, rather than weeks, since the pipe has a complex design and needed custom-made replacement parts.

But the head of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority said early Sunday that the necessary metal had been located overnight and welders immediately began fashioning the replacement part.

"The good news is we know the extent of the problem; we've got a solution to fix it," Frederick Laskey said. "As soon as the preparation finishes, they are going to start welding that repair piece back in place, and hopefully that'll be the solution."

While declaring, "I don't want to jinx it," Laskey said he hoped the part could be installed by Monday morning and then water pressure and water quality tests could be conducted "to make sure we can get the system back on and running."

Officials remained puzzled by the cause, since the break occurred in a stretch of pipe that was just seven years old.

"It could have been, you know, a design flaw, it could have been a construction flaw, it could have been that the product was faulty, it could have been something in our system," said Laskey. "There's just so many different variables that come into play here when you're dealing with that much strength."

Concerned about such a vulnerability in the system, the MWRA has been fashioning a backup system, but it is still three to four years from completion.[...]

NYC police defuse Times Square car bomb; Pakistani, Somali residents/citizens of Briton head to Somalia to fight American troops

New York - May 2, 2010 - 3:59 AM ET Reuters update
Authorities credit street vendor for spotting vehicle

By Steve Eder, Clare Baldwin, Jonathan Spicer and Deepa Seetharaman

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Police tipped off by a street vendor found and defused a car bomb inside a sport utility vehicle, thwarting an "act of terrorism" that forced the evacuation of New York's Times Square on Saturday and could have killed many people, authorities said early on Sunday.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg told a news conference that "we have no idea who did this or why." He said the failed bomb -- made of propane, gasoline and fireworks -- appeared to have been made in an amateurish manner.

Times Square is a popular tourist destination in Manhattan's Midtown, and was packed with tourists and theater-goers on a busy and warm Saturday night.

"Luckily, no one is hurt, and now the full attention of city, state and federal law enforcement will be turned to bringing the guilty party to justice in this act of terrorism," New York Governor David Paterson said in a statement.

Bloomberg said a T-shirt vendor noticed "an unoccupied suspicious vehicle" and alerted a police officer on horseback, who saw that the dark-green Nissan Pathfinder had smoke coming from vents near the back seat and smelled of gun powder.

"The NYPD bomb squad has rendered safe an improvised car bomb," said New York Police Commissioner Ray Kelly.
[...]
The bomb was discovered at around 6:30 p.m. (2230 GMT) in the vehicle parked on 45th street and Broadway with its engine running and hazard lights flashing, officials said. It had Connecticut license plates that did not match the vehicle.

Kelly said the bomb squad had removed and dismantled three propane tanks, consumer grade fireworks, two filled five gallon (19 liter) gasoline containers, two clocks, batteries in each of the clocks, electrical wire and other components.

A locked metal box resembling a gun locker had also been removed and taken to a safe location to be detonated, he said.

"This wasn't make believe. This wasn't a false alarm. This was the real deal -- to hurt people," said Fire Commissioner Sal Cassano, adding that the force of the bomb had it gone off could have taken down the front of a building.

Bloomberg said police patrols of the rest of New York City had not found anything suspicious. [...]
United Kingdom

  • According to the 2001 UK Census, 747,285 Pakistanis were residing in the UK and by most recent estimates the figure has increased to well over 1,000,000. This represents 1.5% of the UK's total population and makes it the world's second largest overseas Pakistani community... This figure does not include illegal immigrants, recent immigrants, and people who do not claim full Pakistani ancestry. [Wikipedia]


  • The Somali community in Britain numbers about 250,000, the largest in Europe, with the bulk of those coming to the country as refugees within the past 20 years.

  • May 2, 2010
    Mark Townsend, home affairs editor, (U.K.) Guardian:

    Fears grow that al-Qaida is constructing a safe haven in east Africa with UK groups' help

    A growing number of Britons are answering the call to jihad in Somalia and joining the ranks of militants linked to al-Qaida ahead of an American-backed drive next month to strengthen the country's army.

    Sources say that the influx, which includes Britons of Pakistani origin, is heading to the Horn of Africa as the US tries to shore up Somalia's government in the face of a broadening Islamist insurgency.

    Warnings have been sounded about British-based groups offering funding and expertise to individuals seeking to travel to Somalia to fight alongside al-Shabab, the militia aligned with al-Qaida's global campaign.

    US State Department sources said yesterday that it had noted an influx of "foreign fighters" arriving in Somalia to swell the ranks of al-Shabab. Popular routes from Britain to Somalia involve Kenya or Djibouti, the small republic that borders Somalia on its north west. One western official said some flights to the republic had, at one stage, been dubbed the "Djibouti express" because on occasion so many young Britons were on board. The precise scale of the exodus is unclear, but "scores" of British fighters are known to have travelled to Somalia.

    Concern is growing over the drip-feed of British men attending Somali training camps. Officials are keen to limit the country's potential to evolve into an alternative hideout for al-Qaida extremists from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Somalia's ungoverned spaces raise the risk, say analysts, of the country replicating Afghanistan's role as an al-Qaida safe haven when under Taliban control.

    There is fresh concern over Somalia's proximity to Yemen, the Arabian peninsula base for al-Qaida. Last week the British ambassador to Yemen survived a suicide bomb attack as his convoy travelled through the capital, Sanaa. A Pentagon source said recent events meant the US was developing "significant concerns about the growing threat" in the area.

    America has brought US special forces into Yemen to work with the army to try to counter the al-Qaida threat. It has also spent $6.8m in Somalia supporting training for nearly 2,000 soldiers, touted as the biggest effort to rebuild the Somalian army in 20 years.

    The issue of Somalia has been repeatedly raised by Jonathan Evans, director- general of MI5. "There is no doubt that there is training activity and terrorist planning in east Africa – particularly in Somalia – which is focused on the UK," he has said.

    British security sources cite the case last month of an Australian man of Somali origin who was suspected of working with al-Shabab, but who escaped from police custody in Kenya, as an example of the new wave of foreign fighters entering the country.

    The movement between Somalia and the UK has led to increased efforts to detect potential terror networks linked to Islamic militants based in east Africa. The Somali community in Britain numbers about 250,000, the largest in Europe, with the bulk of those coming to the country as refugees within the past 20 years.

    Two Somali asylum-seekers were among the four men convicted of the failed attempts to bomb the London transport system on 21 July 2005.

    On same day massive flood rains hit Nashville catastrophic water main break shuts off clean water to Boston

    Disasters converge on two American capital cities: Nashville, Tennessee and Boston, Massachusetts

    Tennessee

  • At least five people killed as between 6-10 inches of rain fall in 12 hours in the Nashville area causing "extremely dangerous" flooding

  • "This is one of the most severe rain events Nashville has ever experienced," said Nashville Mayor Karl Dean

  • Record flooding at Mill Creek, near Antioch, Tennessee

  • Two levee breaks displace at least 2,000 people near Memphis

  • Rain expected to continue into Sunday morning;
  • Nashville is the capital of the U.S. state of Tennessee and the county seat of Davidson County. It is located on the Cumberland River in Davidson County, in the north-central part of the state. The city is a major hub for the health care, music, publishing, banking and transportation industries, and is home to a large number of colleges and universities.

    Nashville has a consolidated city-county government which includes seven smaller municipalities in a two-tier system. The population of Nashville-Davidson County stood at 626,144 as of 2008, according to United States Census Bureau estimates. This makes it the second most populous city in the state after Memphis. However, the 2009 population of the entire 13-county Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area was 1,582,264, making it the largest metropolitan area in the state. The 2009 population of the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Columbia combined statistical area was estimated at 1,666,566. [Wikipedia]
    May 1, 2010 10:27 p.m. EDT
    At least 5 dead in Tennessee flooding; tornado warnings in Arkansas
    By the CNN Wire Staff

    (CNN) -- Severe flooding killed at least five people in central Tennessee on Saturday, officials said, as floodwaters inundated roads, highways and homes in and around the Nashville area.

    The National Weather Service also said 33 of 75 counties in Arkansas are under a tornado warning, and 25 counties in Tennessee are under a tornado watch.
    [...]
    Between 6 and 10 inches of rain has fallen in 12 hours in the area, causing "extremely dangerous" flooding, the National Weather Service said.

    "This is one of the most severe rain events Nashville has ever experienced," Nashville Mayor Karl Dean said in a statement.

    Dean said more than 50 water rescues had been conducted Saturday, and more were underway.

    "I urge all Nashville residents to stay home and stay off the roads," Dean said.

    At least 2,000 people were displaced after two levees broke in Millington, a small city near Memphis, Millington Police said.

    Video from CNN affiliate WZTV showed more than a dozen vehicles submerged in several feet of swift-moving water on I-24 in Nashville.

    Rescue workers helped drivers escape as water surrounded their cars, CNN affiliate WSMV reported. The floodwaters pushed a home off of its foundation and into the middle of I-24.

    Video from WZTV showed a school annex building floating down the interstate before breaking into pieces.

    WSMV: Section of I-24 closed by massive flooding

    Officials are advising residents to stay off roads, as many have become impassable.

    Janel Lacy, a spokeswoman for the Nashville mayor's office, said that in addition to I-24 in Davidson County, 20 other local roads were closed.

    CNN iReporter Andrew Ellis sent in a video of a "raging river" of water rushing over an open field where people usually play soccer and golf in Lexington, Tennessee.

    "The flooding brought the town to a standstill. No one could get in and no one could get out," he said. "Many homes, vehicles and entire neighborhoods either were or still are under water."
    [...]
    Lacy said one shelter had opened at Lipscomb University, and officials planned to open others.

    The rain is expected to continue into Sunday morning, she said.

    Heidt said floodwaters were expected to crest around 11 p.m. CT (midnight ET) Saturday.

    The weather service has reported record flooding at Mill Creek, near Antioch, Tennessee.
    Massachusetts

  • ‘Catastrophic’ rupture hits Greater Boston's water system

  • 8 million gallons per hour gush from huge Weston pipe

  • Backup reservoirs tapped; 2m ordered to boil water

  • “This is everyone’s worst nightmare in the water industry"

  • Best-case scenario is break will be repaired in days, not weeks
  • Boston ... is the capital and largest city in Massachusetts, and is one of the oldest cities in the United States. The largest city in New England, Boston is sometimes regarded as the unofficial "Capital of New England" for its economic and cultural impact. Boston city proper had a 2008 estimated population of 620,535, making it the twenty-first largest in the country. Boston is also the anchor of a substantially larger metropolitan area called Greater Boston, home to 4.5 million people and the tenth-largest metropolitan area in the country. [Wikipedia]
    May 2, 2010
    Michael Levenson and Beth Daley, writing for the Boston Globe

    Nearly 2 million residents of Greater Boston lost their supply of clean drinking water when a huge pipe abruptly burst yesterday, prompting authorities to declare a state of emergency and to impose a sweeping order for homeowners and businesses to boil the untreated water now flowing from their taps.

    Governor Deval Patrick said residents in Boston and 29 other communities east of Weston should boil water for at least a minute before drinking it to avoid the risk of getting sick. He also asked bottled water companies and the National Guard to help make clean water available to residents in the affected communities.

    The crisis began around 10 a.m. yesterday when a 10-foot-wide pipe in Weston sprang a leak, which worsened throughout the afternoon and eventually cut off Greater Boston from the Quabbin Reservoir, where most of its water supply is stored.
    [...]
    “This is everyone’s worst nightmare in the water industry,’’ said Frederick A. Laskey, executive director of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority.
    [...]
    Officials said they did not know how long it would take to restore clean drinking water to the region, but Laskey said he hopes it will be “days, not weeks.’’

    Officials also said they did not know what caused the relatively new seven-year-old steel pipe to break 20 feet underground, near Recreation Road by the intersection of the Massachusetts Turnpike and Route 128.

    Officials shut off the water supply into the pipe at about 6:40 p.m. Soon after, engineers discovered rubber gaskets floating above the leak, leading them to theorize that the pipe had ruptured at a sleeve connecting sections of the pipe.

    By 10 p.m., Laskey said engineers could see into the pipe. It was still half-full with water. But he said he was encouraged that the problem might be solved relatively soon because the sleeves could be fixed more easily than the steel pipe.

    “In a sense, it’s the most vulnerable point in the system,’’ said Tom Baron, an independent water systems engineer who formerly worked for the water authority.

    Officials said that if they cannot repair the pipe with a temporary patch, a new custom-made pipe might have to be built. Officials had been building a backup system for Greater Boston’s drinking water system, but it is three or four years from completion. Before water was shut off to the ruptured pipe yesterday, brown water had been roaring from a massive crater in the ground, sending more than 8 million gallons an hour rushing down a hill into the nearby Charles River.

    The state Department of Conservation and Recreation said the millions of gallons pouring into the river would not be a problem, even as the river’s elevation rose by 8 inches in some locations and its flow nearly doubled in a matter of hours.

    “Our dams can handle this,’’ said Wendy Fox, a spokeswoman for the agency.

    But Nigel Pickering, senior engineer and watershed modeler for the Charles River Watershed Association, warned that the water entering the river from the break could stir up sediment, harming fish. Laskey said it did not appear that sediments had been kicked up as of last night.

    Authorities said that contractors and engineers would know more about what went wrong today, when they have a chance to better inspect the pipe.

    “I really don’t want to speculate,’’ Laskey said at the scene of the break. “We’ve got to get there to know.’’ [...]
    See entire Boston Globe report for additional information on how the crisis is affecting the drinking supply for communities and how officials are responding.

    Saturday, May 1

    Oil Spill: Cameron International and Deepwater Horizon companies in the crosshairs over failed oil rig blowout 'fail safe' mechanism

    I really like it that AOL News has been featuring 'citizen journalists' who specialize in a topic under discussion in the news, rather than using wire service reports. Such is the case for Carl Frazen, an AOL News contributor who does a bang-up up job of explaining the blowout preventers ("BOPs") on oil rigs and what seems to have been the catastrophic failure of a BOP on the oil rig that exploded in the Gulf.

    Franzen provides so many links in his report that I'll just pass along the first three paragraphs without copying the links, and with the strong recommendation that you read his entire report if you're trying to follow the many byways of the oil spill disaster:
    (April 30) -- With efforts to battle the massive Gulf Coast oil slick now demanding precedence, the question of who or what is to blame for the spill itself remains murky. One fact, however, is starkly clear: The piece of offshore-rig equipment designed to be "a drilling operation's last line of defense" against leaks failed miserably.

    When an oil rig has an uncontrolled oil pressure buildup -- like the one thought to have set off the explosion that sank the Deepwater Horizon rig last week -- a device called a blowout preventer (BOP) is supposed to deliver a hydraulic-powered "guillotine"-like slice to the drill pipe, crimping and sealing it off.

    BOPs are mandated on all U.S. offshore oil rigs and are supposed to undergo regular inspection. Several studies have shown them to be increasingly reliable; however, they are not flawless. [...]

    Are you sitting down for this? New York Times creeps close to criticizing Obama's response to oil spill.

    While I can't help but chortle at the spectacle of New York Times editors getting some steel in their spine when it comes to criticizing their dear leader, the slowness of President Obama and his administration in responding to the oil spill is very troubling. It's also an eerie echo of the Bush administration's slowness to take in the size of the disaster in New Orleans after the Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005.

    It was the same with the outbreak of swine flu last year, and with the tens of thousands of Americans stranded this year with no warning in airports because of ash from a volcano eruption.

    The federal government was quicker off the dime in responding to the earthquake in Haiti -- and to the killer tsunami in the Indian Ocean, for that matter -- than it's been in responding to disasters that target Americans. That's because in both cases the U.S. military was quickly given the lead role in mustering a response. It was the same with 9/11. The slowness of the civilian federal government to react to surprise disasters points to an entrenched systemic problem, which cuts across political boundaries.

    It hardly needs saying that the problem extends to the civilian government's ostrich-like response to the war along the Mexican-U.S. border spilling into the USA.

    May 1, 2010
    BP Is Criticized Over Oil Spill, but U.S. Missed Chances to Act

    by CAMPBELL ROBERTSON and ERIC LIPTON
    The New York Times

    NEW ORLEANS — As oil edged toward the Louisiana coast and fears continued to grow that the leak from a seabed oil well could spiral out of control, officials in the Obama administration publicly chastised BP America for its handling of the spreading oil gusher in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Yet a review of the response suggests it may be too simplistic to place all the blame for the unfolding environmental catastrophe on the oil company. The federal government also had opportunities to move more quickly, but did not do so while it waited for a resolution to the spreading spill from BP.

    The Department of Homeland Security waited until Thursday to declare that the incident was “a spill of national significance,” and then set up a second command center in Mobile, Ala. The actions came only after the estimate of the size of the spill was increased fivefold to 5,000 barrels a day.

    The delay meant that the Homeland Security Department waited until late this week to formally request a more robust response from the Department of Defense, with Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano acknowledging even as late as Thursday afternoon that she did not know if the Defense Department even had equipment that might be helpful.

    By Friday afternoon, she said, the Defense Department had agreed to send two large military transport planes to spray chemicals that can disperse the oil while it is still in the Gulf.

    Officials initially seemed to underestimate the threat of a leak, just as BP did last year when it told the government such an event was highly unlikely. Rear Adm. Mary E. Landry, the chief Coast Guard official in charge of the response, said on April 22, after the rig sank, that the oil that was on the surface appeared to be merely residual oil from the fire, though she said it was unclear what was going on underwater. The day after, officials said that it appeared the well’s blowout preventer had kicked in and that there did not seem to be any oil leaking from the well, though they cautioned it was not a guarantee.

    BP officials, even after the oil leak was confirmed by using remote-controlled robots, expressed confidence that the leak was slow enough, and steps taken out in the Gulf of Mexico aggressive enough, that the oil would never reach the coast.

    On Friday, the company drew sharp new criticism from federal officials for not stopping the leak and cleaning up the spill before it reached land. They called the oil company’s current resources inadequate.

    “It is clear that after several unsuccessful attempts to secure the source of the leak, it is time for BP to supplement their current mobilization as the slick of oil moves toward shore,” Ms. Napolitano said pointedly.

    Geoffrey S. Morrell, deputy assistant secretary of defense, said in a statement that the government would hold BP accountable for the cost of the department’s deployment, which as of Friday night included the Louisiana National Guard to help clean up coastal areas once the oil comes ashore.

    Meanwhile, one official at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in a widely distributed warning on Friday, said the oil flow could grow from the current estimate of 5,000 barrels a day to “an order of magnitude higher than that.” The NOAA document, first obtained by The Press-Register in Mobile, was described by an agency spokesman as simply a possibility raised by a staff member, not an official prediction.

    Some oil industry critics questioned whether the federal government is too reliant on oil companies to manage the response to major spills, leaving the government unable to evaluate if the response is robust enough.

    “Here you have the company that is responsible for the accident leading the response to the crisis,” said Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s Energy Program. “There is a problem here, and the consequence is clear.”

    But it is still the government, in this case the Coast Guard, that has the final say. A law passed a year after the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster makes the owner of a rig or vessel responsible for cleaning up a spill. But oversight of the cleanup is designated to the Coast Guard, with advice from other federal agencies.

    Rear Adm. Robert C. North, retired, who was commander of the Coast Guard’s Eighth District from 1994 to 1996, said that decisions in these situations are made collectively, but that the buck essentially stops with the federal coordinator — in this case, Admiral Landry. “The federal on-scene coordinator is kind of the one individual to say, ‘I think we need to do more’ or ‘That’s adequate,’ ” he said.
    Also see the New York Times May 1 companion report, In Gulf Oil Spill, Fragile Marshes Face New Threat

    Thursday, April 29

    Obama still a war criminal; the empire strikes back and misses Hakeemullah again; drone hearing in Congress; and the Guardian delivers a warning

    This post is for readers who thought I was making an April Fool's joke when I wrote on April 1 that President Obama should be impeached and tried for war crimes because he authorized Pakistan's government to choose targets for some CIA drone strikes in Pakistan.

    Yesterday, April 28, a U.S. congressional subcommittee (National Security and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform) held a hearing to examine the legality of the CIA's use of drones (unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs) to fire missiles at suspected insurgents/terrorists in Pakistan and elsewhere.

    (See my April 11 post, Koh silent about Obama decision to let Pakistan choose targets for U.S. drones for background on the drone issue.)

    Wired magazine reported that one of the authorities giving testimony, David Glazier, Loyola Law School professor and former Navy surface warfare officer, observed about CIA employees carrying out the drone strikes:
    ... Under the legal theories adopted by our government in prosecuting Guantánamo detainees, these CIA officers as well as any higher-level government officials who have authorized or directed their attacks are committing war crimes.” ... [1]
    I didn't listen to the hearing but from the Wired report about it, I doubt Glazier touched on the specific question of Obama's authorizing the CIA to act as an assassin for another government and one that is patently a rogue regime.

    Indeed, I'd be surprised if any questions or discussion during the hearing addressed the issue. My guess is that Glazier and others who testified were focused on answering questions about general issues relating to drone use.

    That would certainly be the case for an American human rights attorney, Joanne Mariner, who did not testify but who drew up a list of questions she determined the House panel needed to ask about U.S. drone warfare. Her questions, posted at the legal website Find Law, are excellent, except for the glaring omission of one about a U.S. President authorizing Pakistan's government to choose CIA drone strikes.

    I hasten to add that I extend the benefit of the doubt to Mariner about whether the omission means she was being generous to Obama. Given that in the United States only a handful of media outlets (The New Yorker; The Wall Street Journal; my blog and RBO, which crossposts my essays) have mentioned the specific issue, she might not know about it. Aside from the outlets I mentioned, to the best of my knowledge not one single American news program on radio or television, not one press outlet or blog, not one Member of Congress, has discussed the specific issue.

    Even The Wall Street Journal report, dated March 26, 2010, does not specifically state that Obama had authorized the CIA to allow Pakistan to pick targets; it only mentioned that Obama was reviewing Pakistan's request to use the drones to target domestic enemies. Because the exact date of Obama's decision is only given as "March" 2010 by The New Yorker article, it's possible he okayed Pakistan's request after the WSJ report was published.

    In any event, the dearth of public discussion about Obama's decision explains why I have little hope that the issue was explicitly raised during yesterday's hearing, or that Obama will ever be brought to trial or impeached because of a war crime.

    However, I don't find it coincidental that on the same day the hearing was conducted the Guardian, a conduit for MI6 opinion, broke a story featuring an unnamed "western diplomat" and a "senior intelligence official at Pakistan's ISI spy agency. The unnamed ISI official asserted that, contrary to earlier reports, Hakeemullah Mehsud had not been killed by a U.S. drone strike in January.

    The British government believes the CIA's drone strikes in Pakistan are counterproductive (a belief shared by U.S. military commanders and analysts backing the COIN approach in Afghanistan; see the New Yorker report), but because they don't want to openly confront the U.S. on the matter, I think the Guardian used mouthpieces instead of British officials:
    [...] The senior official said the ISI would be "very, very willing" to play a role in negotiations with the Taliban, but only if called upon by both the Afghan and US governments. For now, he said, Pakistan's spies are "sitting on the sidelines, watching".

    "There are a number of different efforts and nobody knows what anyone else is doing. It's a very fragmented effort." He added that "if it's meant to confuse the Taliban, it's working".

    One stumbling block, he said, was the clashing policies of Britain and the US. "The British are more amenable to negotiations and talking," he said. "The Americans are attempting to create conditions where the Taliban will be forced to come to the table. In my opinion they will never achieve that."

    A western diplomat in Islamabad said British officials were more inclined to talks than their US counterparts, but said policy had not been fixed in either country because "otherwise things would be happening".[...]
    There is a good reason, in addition to the opportunity afforded by the publicity about yesterday's congressional hearing on drones, that the British government wants to bring up premature reports about Hakeemullah's death at this time. The reason has to do with the recent release of the U.N. report on Benazir Bhutto's assassination.

    Pakistan's government is very bad actor; it's on par with the one in Iran, and it's been propped up by the U.S. government; this has been to the great detriment of democracy and human rights in Pakistan and the NATO war effort in Afghanistan.(2)

    But even the United Nations, which has great tolerance for atrocities carried out by rogue regimes and doesn't like to cross Pakistan's government, finally had their fill. They refused to whitewash many details relating to Benazir Bhutto's assassination, and which point to ISI complicity in her death. The report is so strongly worded that Pakistan's President (who is also Bhutto's widower) tried at first to suppress its publication.

    The Guardian report yesterday mentioned the U.N. findings almost in passing, but the fact that the issue was raised in a discussion of Hakeemullah surviving the U.S. drone strikes I read as a warning from the British government to the American one.

    The press in Pakistan managed to downplay the issue of the ISI's stonewalling when they reported on the U.N. findings. But the United Kingdom is a small country that is very vulnerable to terrorist attacks, and which has a large community of Pakistani immigrants and Britons of Pakistani ancestry. And the U.K. press has been open about discussing the U.N. report.

    The British government, which has its own history of pandering to Pakistani regimes (and the Taliban in Afghanistan) can no longer afford to be seen as giving strong support to Pakistan's regime, particularly not since the publication of the U.N. report on Bhutto's killing. If the British have to distance themselves from the United States over this matter, they will. I believe that was the message MI6 wished to convey in yesterday's Guardian report.

    The CIA can't even name all the Pakistanis they've assassinated with the drone strikes because they don't know who they're killing in many cases; often they have to take the Pakistan military or ISI's word for it. That means they don't know whether they're killing enemies of the Pakistan state, drug dealers, Afghan warlords, al Qaeda, Taliban, or civilians who're not involved with the war against NATO or the attacks on Pakistan's military.

    And as can be seen by the question about whether Hakeemullah is still alive, the CIA all too often depends on faulty or deliberately erroneous information supplied by Pakistan's military/ISI about whether a strike actually hit a presumed target.

    Yet the Pakistan military and ISI are notorious for supplying wildly erroneous reports, as Long War Journal's Bill Roggio has pointed out several times and most recently yesterday:
    Longtime readers of The Long War Journal know that we've been cautious about declaring Hakeemullah dead. Our sources, which have been very accurate on the subject of dead al Qaeda and Taliban leaders in the past, have been skeptical of the reports.

    Pakistani officials hurt their case when they declared that he died on three different dates, and in three different circumstances.

    And the Pakistanis have a terrible track record when declaring senior terror leaders dead. The list at the last link is woefully out of date, but updating it would only reinforce the assertion that Pakistani officials have an awful accuracy rate in reporting on the deaths of top terror leaders. Other than Baitullah Mehsud [killed by a CIA drone strike] and a handful of other local, second-tier Pakistani Taliban leaders in Swat, the record has been dismal at best. One Swati Taliban leader supposedly killed in a shootout later died from cancer. [Bill dryly titled that particular post Taliban commander killed by Pakistani forces dies of cancer]
    Not only do Pakistan's military and ISI suffer from an incurable case of irrational exuberance and speaking out both sides of their mouths, they are also notorious for a revolving door policy, whereby they arrest and imprison al Qaeda and Taliban fighters, then several months later report the jailbirds have somehow flown the coop.

    As to whether Pakistan's government collects cash bounties from the CIA on terrorists who go through the revolving door, I do not know but it wouldn't surprise me to learn they do collect, and even collect twice if they re-arrest the same terrorists.(3)

    If this is the way you like to see your taxes spent, well, what can I say? But when it comes to the point where the President of the United States puts American assassins in the service of a rogue regime it's only a matter of time before Americans have to pay a price we can't afford.

    One of the reasons it's hard to get an accurate count and identification of the number of innocent civilians killed by drone strikes is that often, all that's left of the dead are a few pieces of skin and fragments of bone. That is what Pakistanis have had to bury of relatives caught in the crosshairs of the U.S. war on terror. They don't even know whether the fragments are from their relatives, but they share the fragments with other families who lost relatives in the same strike and call that a funeral.

    Just so you're clear on why Hakeemullah Mehsud became an enemy of the Pakistan state I'm going to close by repeating quotes from the Indian counterterrorism expert Bahukutumbi ("B") Raman that I've featured at least once before on this blog. If the import didn't sink in the last time or two maybe it will now. Writing for Forbes in May 2009, Raman observed:
    [W]hile the Pakistani Punjabi Taliban and the Neo Taliban have been in existence for over a decade, the Pakistani Pashtun Talibans are products of the commando raid into the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad in July 2007, in which a large number of Pashtun tribal children, many of them girls, were killed. It was after this that tribal sirdars, including Fazlullah, Baitullah and Hakeemullah called for a jihad against the Pakistan army and the ISI in retaliation for the raid. While the TNSM has been in existence since the early 1990s, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was born after the Lal Masjid raid.
    1) I don't want to short Glazier's remarks, so please read the Wired report for the fuller context of his remarks, which find drones a lawful weapon of war. In brief, it's the use of (CIA) civilians to carry out the drone attacks that Glazier and other legal experts find unlawful or at least open to the charge.

    2) See my two 2009 Alden Pyle in Pakistan essays here and here for information about the U.S. role in Pakistan that doesn't make it into the mainstream media.

    3) For information on the cash bounties and additional background on the U.S. drone warfare in Pakistan, see my November 2009 essay How the U.S. government built a perpetual-motion war machine in Afghanistan and sacrificed American values in the process.

    Wednesday, April 28

    Gordon Brown's 'Bitter Clinging' moment while immigrant exhaustion overtakes Britons

    April 13, 2008:
    A political storm is brewing over Sen. Barack Obama's recent statements. Last Sunday, Obama was explaining his difficulty with winning over working-class voters in Pennsylvania and the Midwest, saying they have become frustrated with economic conditions:

    "And it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations," Obama said.
    Mr Obama was unaware that his comments to Liberals at a wine and cheese fundraiser in an upscale San Franciso neighborhood were being recorded. Fast forward to April 28, 2010:

    Mrs Gillian Duffy, a 65 year-old grandmother, is a lifelong 'working-class' member of Britain's Labor party. When she had a chance today to put questions to Labor's Gordon Brown during his televised election campaigning, she asked about a range of issues that reflected the majority's concerns: crime, high taxes, the national debt, high university tuition fees, immigration.

    The Prime Minister, a practiced pol and adept at dealing with the working class (or "real people" as his administration likes to call them), answered her questions genially, although he was a little arch about her immigration question:
    GILLIAN DUFFY: Three main things what I was drummed in when I was a child was education, health service and looking after people who are vulnerable. ... But there's too many people now who aren't vulnerable but they can claim and people who are vulnerable can't get claim, can't get it.

    GORDON BROWN: But they shouldn't be doing that. There's no life on the dole for people any more. If you're unemployed you've got to go back to work. It's six months...

    GD: You can't say anything about the immigrants because you're saying that you're... all these Eastern Europeans what are coming in, where are they flocking from?

    GB: A million people come from Europe but a million people, British people, have gone into Europe. You do know that there's a lot of British people staying in Europe as well?
    After a few more exchanges including a charming compliment about her jacket, Gordo returned to the Sky News truck for the next campaign pit stop.

    Unaware that his microphone was still on, which meant he was still broadcasting all over Britain, he snapped to an underling, "That was a disaster. Should never have put me with that woman ... whose idea was that?"

    When the underling asked what the woman had said, Gordo replied, "Ugh, everything -- she's just a sort of bigoted woman, said she used to be Labour. It's just ridiculous."

    Moments later the media had beat a path to Mrs Duffy to breathlessly inquire how she'd reacted upon learning what Labor's leader really thought of her:
    Iain Watson (BBC): We are live at the moment, the prime minister's being interviewed by the BBC, what would you like to say to the prime minister?

    Gillian Duffy: "I want to know why I was called a bigot"

    GD: I'm not saying anything more to him.

    IW: Are you disappointed?

    GD: I am really disappointed.

    Niall Paterson (Sky News): Mrs Duffy you came here with very specific concerns about your pension, and he responded positively to those, you thought?

    GD: It was about the tax being paid and pensions, and the national debt.

    NP: But you've just watched that, you've heard the prime minister's words in the Sky truck? What is your instant reaction to that?

    GD: Very upsetting, I'm very upset.

    IW: Did you expect that from him?

    GD: No. He's an educated person, why has he come up with words like that? He's going to lead this country and he's calling an ordinary woman who has just come up and asked him questions - what most people would ask him, they're not doing anything about the national debt, it's going to be tax, tax, tax for another 20 years to get out of this national debt - and he's calling me a bigot.

    NP: You told me you were a lifelong Labour supporter, then you have a postal vote registered, will you be sending that?

    GD: No.

    IW: You also told me earlier, you said when I asked will he stay at No 10 and you said, hopefully he will.

    GD: Well, I'm not bothered whether he does ... not now. I don't think he will.
    Once Mr Obama realized his remarks were making headlines he backtracked, amplified, clarified, and apologized Six Ways from Sunday. The Obama-crazy media (including the Huffington Post blogger who ratted him out) were all too willing to forgive his snobbish remarks about working class voters.

    The British media are not in such a forgiving mood about Gordon Brown's apologies to Mrs. Duffy. A million Britons are indeed fanning out across Europe but they're doing so because they can't find work in the United Kingdom. Unlike the majority of immigrants pouring into the U.K. these British expats are educated, white-collar workers who don't go on the welfare rolls in their host countries.

    A week ago the Guardian newspaper, a bastion of British Educated Liberal opinion that could never be accused of bigotry, published an editorial titled We need a radical immigration policy:
    Despite debate about population growth figures, the problem of immigration in the UK is clear. The government must take action. [...] Britain is already, with Holland, the most crowded country in Europe. Most immigrants go to London and the south-east. Schemes to oblige them to work and remain in places less attractive to immigrants are unrealistic and unenforceable. There is a strong case to be made that the quality of life and social cohesion of our society as a whole will be severely affected by continued population growth on anything like the current scale.

    The view of the public is very clear. According to the latest Sunday Times, 74% think immigration into the UK is too high and the government's own survey, conducted by the Department for Communities and Local Government in February 2010, found that 77% want to see immigration reduced and 50% want it reduced "by a lot". Of the ethnic respondents, 25% also wished to see immigration reduced by a lot. [...]
    As the afternoon wore on in the U.K. the Beeb chronicled the widening fallout from the Prime Minister's remark about Mrs Duffy. Nick Griffin must have been grinning from ear to ear as he turned in for the night.

    Tuesday, April 20

    Iceland Volcano Ash: US military perfectly capable of evacuating stranded Americans from Europe but White House, State continue to prevaricate

    Six days out from Europe's grounding of air flights due to ash and glass particles from a volcanic eruption, and the Obama Administration continues to act like the proverbial deer caught in the headlights.

    Yesterday the U.S. Department of State posted a bizarre statement about the situation. After giving assurance that the state department was sympathetic to the plight of the stranded and offering helpful tips; e.g., "Keep checking in with your airlines," which of course no stranded citizen would think of doing until being prompted, State plopped out with the bottom line for the American taxpayer:
    The Department of State is not evacuating U.S. citizens at this time. U.S. Government evacuation options are constrained by the same factors that are affecting commercial transportation. Furthermore, U.S. Government-facilitated travel by sea would take time to arrange and undertake, by which point commercial travel is likely to have resumed. The cost to travelers to repay an evacuation loan would be equivalent to the commercial rates for cross-Atlantic sea travel.
    Also yesterday, AFP reported:
    WASHINGTON — The White House said Monday that 40,000 Americans were stranded in Britain because of the huge number of flight cancellations due to the cloud of volcanic ash.

    Many more US citizens also appeared to be having trouble returning home from vacation or business trips in other parts of Europe, amid an aviation crisis brought on by the eruption of a volcano in Iceland which led to airspace closures across much of the continent.

    President Barack Obama's spokesman said the US ambassador to Britain Louis Susman had called the White House earlier Monday with an update on the situation.

    "I think there are approximately, according to him, about 40,000 Americans in England that are trying, because of the disruption in air travel, to get back to this country," spokesman Robert Gibbs said.

    Some of the stranded Americans were running out of medicine or didn't have places to stay, said Gibbs, adding that the US State Department was looking into the situation.

    Asked whether the US Navy could follow the example of Britain's Royal Navy and seek to rescue some stranded citizens, Gibbs said he was unaware of any such plans.

    "We've got some big ships, but that would be a pretty big ship," he said.
    Well yes but that's just why a navy always has more than one ship.

    In 2006 the U.S. military, using a variety of vessels including chartered cruise ships, helped 15,000 Americans safely depart from Lebanon during Israel's bombing of the city. And the navy stood ready to extract as many U.S. citizens as necessary.

    Not only that, but while they were evacuating Americans the military squeezed in enough time to distribute millions of dollars of humanitarian aid to the Lebanese; they also found time to have a boat full of Navy Seals pull alongside a Norwegian-chartered evacuation ferry and deliver food to the 127 Americans onboard.

    The kicker is that this massive operation, which included coordination with other governments, was accomplished in ten days. So while Obama and his pathetic excuses for advisors have been fiddling around for the last six days, evacuations from Europe could have been well underway.

    As for the kind of fee ("loan") that State is now talking about charging evacuees, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice waived the fee for the 2006 evacuees. Of course; such fees should be waived when Americans are stranded far from home through no fault of their own.

    It's one of those duties that are part of the social compact, and which taxpaying citizens expect to be included in the price of their support for a modern government: Large numbers of your citizens are stranded somewhere in the world for an indefinite period, you go extract them.

    It's also part of national defense. The U.S. military even has a name for it: "Non-combatant Evacuation Operation."

    The only national government that acted responsibly and intelligently in the volcanic ash situation was Taiwan's. Their national airline's officials didn't wait around for days, licking their forefingers and holding them to the wind to see if it was still blowing in the same direction. They chartered buses, trains, ferries, you name it, to pluck their citizens out of European airports and get them safely home.

    The most shocking part of the Obama Administration's excuses is that as early as Friday, April 16, it was known that even if the ash cloud cleared up immediately there was already such a large backlog of stranded airline passengers in Europe that it would take weeks for the airlines to work through it.

    So I don't know what State was talking about when they argued that if the U.S. launched an extraction by sea the situation might be cleared up before the ships arrived.

    And even if that were the case, even if the ships were halfway to the destinations when the tens of thousands of stranded citizens were able to get on planes, then you turn the ships around and say, 'At least we saved on fuel.' You don't use that as an excuse not to make the effort on behalf of your citizens when a situation strands them through no fault of their own.

    As an American citizen I feel ashamed that I should have to publicly instruct my government on such elementary points.

    None of the above goes near the fact that a fresh eruption of the volcano, combined with the prevailing winds, is sending yet another cloud of ash toward Western Europe.

    So now what? State hasn't even yet collected estimates of the number of U.S. citizens stranded in parts of Europe other than England. Six days out. And they haven't even done that much.

    Let's see; what could we call State that they haven't already been called? How about the U.S. Department of Sleepwalkers? And while we're at it, rename the White House the Lost House.

    High intrigue as SEIU mandarins battle for Andy Stern's throne

    Steve Diamond has more news about the doings at the Service Employees International Union in the wake of Andy Stern's announcement that he was giving up the union's presidency. Steve writes on his King Harvest blog:
    Battle for Helm of SEIU Underway After Stern
    by Stephen Diamond, April 19, 2010

    Andy Stern is not yet out of the way but the battle among SEIU's top officials for control of the 2.2 million member union is well underway. Early reports had Anna Burger, currently head of Change to Win and Secretary-Treasurer of SEIU, favored to replace Stern. But King Harvest has learned that a memo from several SEIU VP's, including Eliseo Medina, the powerful west coast based union official, is circulating backing fellow VP Mary Kay Henry over Burger.

    The real question is whether the union will now attempt to restore internal union democracy and allow the members themselves a serious role in the process. The lack of transparency behind the departure of Stern and the battling secret emails now going is not a great sign.

    No matter the outcome the departure of Stern from the scene means a decline in the union's political leverage. Neither Burger nor Henry are likely to have anything like the access to the White House that Stern, whom I called Obama's Fifth Man, enjoyed during the first year of the Obama Administration. That Stern would depart under these circumstances remains one of the stranger political developments we have witnessed of late.
    As you might tell from the title of this post I'm pessimistic that the union will become democratic under a new president. Steve himself noted in his April 15 post about the mystery surrounding Stern's real reason for leaving SEIU:
    Sorry, but no one walks away from command of a 2 million member organization that can shut down entire cities (as Stern did as part of the immigrant rights marches a few years ago) or elect presidents (as, arguably, Stern helped do in the case of Obama) quietly or on their own.
    Once a union leader gathers that much power I can't feature his replacement handing any of the power to the peasants -- beyond a few cosmetic changes in a nod to criticism.

    As to Steve's comment that Stern's departure means the union won't have as much political leverage -- again, as Steve pointed out in his April 15 post, it's the numbers that really make the union so powerful politically -- more than 2 million members. I can't see Obama cold-shouldering SEIU's next president for that reason.

    What I can see is the possibility that once the iron-fisted Stern is gone SEIU would break into two or more unions.

    History is littered with similar situations accompanying the demise of a powerful emperor. A warlord who never had enough power to take on the emperor is quick to mobilize restive peasants and disgruntled elements of the emperor's army once the emperor is gone. Even if the warlord can't have the palace, he figures he can scare up a big enough army to set up a rival seat of power.

    In that event, yes, the next person to head SEIU would not enjoy as many visits to the White House as Stern. Not only would the union membership be smaller after a split but it would also be a political landmine for Obama to show favoritism toward one side, in what would be a bitter rivalry for several years.

    Thursday, April 15

    When the living look like skeletons: Shamed, China's leaders pledge to make amends to Tibetan earthquake victims and "all ethnic peoples."

    Before there was McDonald's, before there was Chuck E. Cheese, the one restaurant you could haul a rambunctious brood to on a weekend night without getting glares from the waiters was a Chinese restaurant. The Chinese worship children; they have infinite patience with them, even with the brats. So when I saw photographs of well-fed Chinese soldiers rescuing half starved-looking Tibetan children from the earthquake rubble I thought, 'If those pictures get on Chinese TV, Hu is toast.'

    I guess he thought the same thing because he cut short his attendance at an important BRIC summit in Brazil and raced home. That halted the summit because his attendance there was key. He also announced that because of the earthquakes in western China on Wednesday and "the great loss of human life," he was cutting short his Latin American tour and wouldn't visit Venezuela or Chile as planned.

    He also packed off Premier Wen Jiabao to the Tibetan plateau to address the earthquake victims. After flying Thursday night to Qinghai province's Yushu county, close to the epicenter, Wen climbed atop a pile of rubble and pledged to "build a good life for all ethnic people after the earthquake."

    The speech was translated simultaneously into Tibetan. Remarking on Wen's speech, The Los Angeles Times reports today:
    [...] Almost since the moment the quake struck at 7:49 a.m. Wednesday, Chinese state television has been filled with images of hero Chinese soldiers and paramilitary working hand-in-hand with local Tibetans - some of them Buddhist monks - in common cause to rescue victims of the earthquake.

    "I think the Chinese already are looking at the larger implications of this earthquake. They see it as an opportunity for the Communist Party to win sympathy through its generosity," Robbie Barnett, a Tibet scholar at New York's Columbia University, said Thursday. He says he believes that the Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, may see it "as an opportunity to find some common ground." [...]
    Well that's true but the analysis is overlooking that Hu is well aware of the raw wounds of Chinese parents who lost their children in the Great Sichuan Earthquake in May 2008. Because of the one child policy in China, most of those children were the parents' only child.

    It wasn't until May of last year that the Chinese government finally released their version of the number of children killed -- without releasing the names; it was more than 5,300. That number is probably far less than the actual number killed.

    That's not the half of it. Many of those children were killed because the earthquake struck during the school day and thousands of shoddily built schools disintegrated. The Chinese authorities promised investigations into the shoddy building practices then dragged their feet and clamped down on parent protests about the issue.

    Now the Chinese have to sit in front of the TV and watch more children's bodies pulled from the rubble of collapsed schools in Qinghai province. Even though the quake struck before the school day, many of the children were boarded at the schools. And the Chinese have to see that many of the children look like skeletons. The Han Chinese are still ticked off at the Tibetans about the Tibetan protests in 2008 but I know the sight of those children trumps everything.

    Even before the earthquake in Qinghai the situation there was bad:
    Many residents of urban areas of Yushu are impoverished former herders and farmers resettled in public housing under a controversial program that the Chinese government said would preserve grasslands and alleviate poverty. Tibetan human rights groups have complained the practice has deprived people of their traditions and livelihood, leading to social unrest.
    On top of that, at last count the quake killed 760 people, injured more than 9,000 and made more than 100,000 homeless, the majority of them Tibetan.

    Good and bad news about new Iceland volcano eruption

    Reuters reported a couple hours ago that the eruption, which happened yesterday, is intensifying and showing no signs of abating. The New York Times reported a half hour ago that the eruption isn't all that powerful (when compared to something like the 1991 eruption in the Philippines.) But there is also bad news:
    Eruption Wasn’t That Powerful, but Effects May Linger
    By HENRY FOUNTAIN, April 15, 2010

    The Icelandic volcanic eruption that disrupted air travel in Europe on Thursday was not a particularly powerful one, experts said, but they cautioned that its effects — both on travel and the regional climate — may linger.

    Bill Burton, associate director of the U.S. Geological Survey’s volcano hazards program, said the current eruption under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier bore similarities to the last eruption there, in 1821. “We seem to be reprising that episode again,” he said.

    That eruption continued, on and off, until 1823. While no one can predict how long this one may last, Dr. Burton said, in vulcanology, “The past is the key to the present.”

    He added, “So if the other eruption lasted for two years, this one might as well.” While an on-again, off-again eruption probably would not have much effect on air travel over the long term, it could affect the weather in Northern Europe, said Richard Wunderman, a vulcanologist with the Smithsonian Institution in Washington. The volcanic plume contains a lot of sulfur, he said, “that can become an aerosol up there that hangs around a long time reflecting sunlight.”

    “It’s not enough that it’s probably going to be cooling the whole climate,” he added. But on a regional basis it could create what is called volcano weather, with smoglike conditions.

    Unlike huge volcanic blasts like that at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, the eruption in southern Iceland began slowly about a month ago, with a series of fissures on the side of the volcano and what vulcanologists call fire fountaining, the spewing of hot magma through vents. Dr. Burton said that it was only when the magma found a new route through the volcano earlier this week — shifting to the summit, directly under the glacial ice — that the ash-rich eruption began.

    That eruption late Wednesday created a plume of ash that spread out across Northern Europe at high altitudes, forcing aviation authorities to ground flights and close airports because of the risk of damage to aircraft, particularly the engines, from abrasive silicate particles.

    Dr. Burton said that when the eruption shifted to the summit, there were indications that the silica content of the ash increased. “Theoretically, the more silica-rich the ash, the more risky or greater threat there is,” he said. But any volcanic plume is dangerous. “The plane is effectively sandblasted,” he said. “Even the windows can become frosted.”

    Dr. Burton said the eruption was low on a measure of power called the volcanic explosivity index — certainly nowhere near Pinatubo, which rated a 6 on the 1 to 8 scale, or the 1980 explosive eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington State, which rated a 5.

    Pinatubo spewed so much ash, dust and aerosol particles into the atmosphere that it lowered average air temperatures worldwide for several years, as the particles blocked some sunlight from reaching the Earth. So far the Icelandic eruption has spewed far less material, and its location, in the high latitudes, also reduces its global impact. “The closer to the poles, the less effect it is likely to have,” Dr. Burton said.

    Steve Diamond isn't buying Andy Stern's excuse for leaving SEIU

    April 14:
    Stern confirms he'll leave service employees union
    by SAM HANANEL (Associated Press)
    WASHINGTON — Andy Stern, the dynamic and divisive union leader who wielded enormous political power, confirmed Wednesday that he will step down as president of the Service Employees International Union.

    "There is a time to learn, a time to lead and a time to leave," he said in a video statement on his union's Web site. "There is never a perfect time for any long-term leader to depart or for organizations to make transitions."

    Stern spent 14 years heading the 2.2-million member union that he helped build into one of the nation's largest and most politically active. He said he realized a dream with the passage of health care overhaul legislation and that his departure would pave the way for new leadership at SEIU.

    But his decision to leave the post two years before his term ends stunned many in the labor and political worlds. Stern had an especially high profile with Democratic control of the White House and Congress. He is a close confidant of President Barack Obama and his fingerprints are on many of the administration's policies.

    Stern did not say exactly when he would leave, but indicated it would be soon. Secretary-Treasurer Anna Burger will replace Stern for 30 days until the board elects a new president.[...]
    Writing at his King Harvest blog today, Professor Steve Diamond analyzes Stern's time as SEIU's President and his seemingly abrupt decision to retire:

    SEIU’s Andy Stern - he didn’t jump off the bridge, he was pushed
    by Stephen Diamond

    With all due respect to the dogged and important reporting of Randy Shaw at BeyondChron on the SEIU v. NUHW saga, I differ with his suggestion today that Andy Stern, longtime head of SEIU, decided to sail into the good night just because the heat in the kitchen was too much to bear.

    Shaw concludes in an account that is only slightly different than the press release apologias coming from SEIU HQ that "the bottom line: Stern was burned out, saw nothing on the immediate horizon that excited him, and decided he wanted out. He clearly prefers being a spokesperson for political issues to the day to day struggles of running a labor union, and expect him to stay politically involved."

    Sorry, but no one walks away from command of a 2 million member organization that can shut down entire cities (as Stern did as part of the immigrant rights marches a few years ago) or elect presidents (as, arguably, Stern helped do in the case of Obama) quietly or on their own.

    Anyone who would should have their head examined. In any case, Stern without those 2 million members is a nobody and he likely knows that. His days as "Obama's Fifth Man" are certainly numbered. His seat at the table was based on his ability to mobilize those members and their affiliate groups in the low wage immigrant communities they were connected to, such as ACORN and various La Raza-type entities.

    No, Stern was pushed - by whom and why remains to be explained. But there is a report circulating that Stern was savaged at a recent AFL-CIO Executive Council by none other than his mentor, former AFL president, John J. Sweeney, who preceded Stern as head of SEIU.

    In any case, good riddance. Stern's organizing "success" was largely made up out of bureaucratic maneuvers.

    He appended CSEA, the huge California public sector union (and the union I belonged to when I was on the labor center staff at U.C. Berkeley) to SEIU and then claimed he had organized 100,000 new workers. Yet, CSEA had been a viable labor organization for many decades in California. He engineered top down deals with governors like Blagojevich and Gray Davis to reclassify social welfare recipients as workers and claim tens of thousands more "new" union members.

    He re-organized low wage immigrant hispanic workers in the janitorial and building service sectors in places like Los Angeles only after SEIU had watched for decades while the industry restructured to destroy the unions that often African-American janitors had built over many decades. Then he (and Sweeney too it should be said) imposed trusteeships when the new members thought they should have real input over their labor organizations.

    And who can forget Stern's travels to Beijing to meet with Chinese Communist Party officials in an abrupt and damaging reversal of international labor's support for genuine independent unions in China? Stern dragged Jimmy Hoffa, Jr., along as well who, likely against his better instincts decided not to press the Chinese on the rights of imprisoned labor activists. Stern claimed, absurdly, that CtW was helping the Chinese state controlled labor organization, the ACFTU, organize WalMart operations there! But the delegations he and UCLA's Kent Wong led there have ignored genuine labor leaders like Han Dong Fang of the China Labour Bulletin as well as the only real labor union in today's China, the Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions.

    Change to Win has turned out to be a pipe dream. Labor intellectuals like Nelson Lichtenstein, Ruth Milkman, Kim Voss, and Ken Jacobs, all based for some odd reason at the University of California which has almost no SEIU presence, thought CtW was the re-birth of the CIO with Stern as John L. Lewis. How quaint. In fact, the five affiliates in CtW went to the mattresses as quickly as the Mafia's Five Families in New York did in the gangland wars of the 30s or 60s.

    First, SEIU betrayed the efforts of the UFCW to lead a campaign among WalMart's one million non-union workers with a back stage deal with the WalMart CEO. Then, Stern backed Bruce Raynor in an absurd effort to wrest control of the Unite-HERE (home now of the old ILGWU, my grandfather's proud union for many decades) and its Amalgamated Bank.

    Finally, in what has to be the coup de grace in assessing Stern's legacy, there are reports that SEIU supported a "no union" choice in the ongoing election battle in USC's hospital system in Los Angeles when the National Union of Health Workers challenged SEIU's hold on that shop. But the USC employees were, of course, part of the old UHW when it was inside SEIU. It was Stern who forced the split that led to the election, one of many occurring across the state to settle the unions' battle. A recent legal dispute between the two unions resulted in largely a draw.

    The upside of the ouster of Stern is that it is very unlikely that his replacement will have anything like the ability or desire to control the union in quite the way he did. It will likely be a very messy transition but we could see the opening of real talks about the CtW affiliates following Unite-HERE back into the House of Labor where they belong.

    Iceland volcano eruption intensifies, shows no signs of abating

    See also the handy fact list about volcanic eruptions that Reuters has put together, and which has all kinds of information you might prefer not to know.
    Icelandic volcano eruption intensifies
    by Omar Valdimarsson
    filing from Reykjavik, Iceland
    1:07 PM EDT Thursday, April 15, 2010

    (Reuters) - A volcanic eruption in Iceland, which has thrown up a 6-km (3.7 mile) high plume of ash and disrupted air traffic across northern Europe, has grown more intense, an expert said on Thursday.

    The eruption under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier continued to spew large amounts of ash and smoke into the air and showed no signs of abating after 40 hours of activity, said Pall Einarsson, a geophysicist at the University of Iceland.

    "The seismographs are showing that since this morning the intensity of the eruption seems to be growing," he said.

    Hot fumes had melted up to a third of the glacial ice covering the crater, causing a nearby river to burst its banks, and frequent explosions on the floor of the crater sounded like bombs going off, he said.

    The floods were abating, however, and some of those living in the sparsely populated area near the volcano had returned to their homes.

    Another scientist said the eruption was 10 times more powerful than one which occurred last month on the flank of the volcano, though the two were part of the same event.

    To the east of the volcano, thousands of hectares of land are covered by a thick layer of ash while a cloud blotted out the sun in some areas along the southern coast of Iceland, local media reported.

    The cloud of ash from the eruption has hit air travel all over northern Europe, with flights grounded or diverted due to the risk of engine damage from sucking in particles of ash from the volcanic cloud.

    CLOSE WATCH

    Scientists picked up the first signs of increased seismic activity at Eyjafjallajokull last summer and had been expecting an eruption at any moment, Einarsson said.

    The eruption began in March but subsided earlier this week when a magma conduit became blocked, building up pressure which finally escaped through the volcano's main crater.

    Einarsson, who described the eruption as "reasonably powerful," said it was the most significant volcanic event in Iceland since a huge eruption in 1996, when an eruption under the Grimsvotn lakes led to widespread flooding.

    He said scientists were still concerned the ongoing eruption could trigger Mt Katla, a more powerful volcano nearby covered by a thicker ice sheet, but had not picked up any clear signs of brewing activity.

    The volcano under the Ejfjallajokull glacier, Iceland's fifth largest glacier, has erupted five times since Iceland was settled in the ninth century.

    Iceland sits on a volcanic hotspot in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and has relatively frequent eruptions, although most occur in sparsely populated areas and pose little danger to people or property. Before March, the last eruption took place in 2004.

    (Reporting by Omar Valdimarsson; writing by Nicholas Vinocur; editing by Robert Woodward)

    File under Signs and Portents: Massive fireball in Midwestern sky

    See CNN website for video
    CNN Wire Staff
    April 15, 2010 10:06 a.m. EDT

    (CNN) -- Authorities in several Midwestern states were flooded Wednesday night with reports of a gigantic fireball lighting up the sky, the National Weather Service said.

    The fireball was visible for about 15 minutes beginning about 10 p.m., said the National Weather Service in Sullivan, Wisconsin, just west of Milwaukee.

    "The fireball was seen over the northern sky, moving from west to east," said the NWS in the Quad Cities area, which includes parts of Iowa and Illinois.

    "Well before it reached the horizon, it broke up into smaller pieces and was lost from sight," the service said. "Several reports of a prolonged sonic boom were received from areas north of Highway 20, along with shaking of homes, trees and various other objects including wind chimes," it said.

    It said the fireball was seen across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. CNN affiliate WISN-TV said that people in Ohio also saw it.

    Video from WISN showed a massive ball of light exploding across the sky. The Doppler Radar from the Quad Cities weather service appeared to capture a portion of the smoke trail from the fireball at just after 10 p.m., the NWS said. It appears as a thin line extending across portions of Grant and Iowa Counties in Wisconsin.

    There has been no official determination as to what caused the fireball, the NWS in Sullivan said.

    However, it said there is a meteor shower called Gamma Virginids that occurs from April 4 to April 21, with peak activity expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

    "A large meteorite could have caused the brilliant fireball that has been reported," the National Weather Service said. [...]

    Volcanic ash closes European airports, stranding tens of thousands of travelers; volcano eruption unleashes flooding in Iceland

    "In Iceland, hundreds of people fled floodwaters after the volcano under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier erupted Wednesday for the second time in less than a month. As water gushed down the mountainside, rivers rose up to 10 feet by Wednesday night, slicing the island nation's main road in half."
    Volcanic ash closes European airports, stranding tens of thousands of travelers
    By Janet Stobart, Los Angeles Times
    April 15, 2010 7:10 AM (Pacific Time)

    The eruption in Iceland snarls air travel across the northern part of the continent. International flights to and from the U.S. are likely to be affected.

    Reporting from London

    For the first time since Sept. 11, 2001, all British airports were ordered shut down Thursday, a move prompted not by terrorism but by drifting ash spewed from an Icelandic volcano.

    Air traffic also was halted over Ireland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland, stranding tens of thousands of travelers. Shutdowns and cancellations spread to France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland.

    Britain's National Air Traffic Control Service issued the order at midday and said later that it would last until at least 6 a.m. Friday morning. (10 p.m. Thursday PDT).

    The service said that "there will be no flights permitted in U.K.-controlled airspace other than emergency situations," concluding, "It is very unlikely that the situation over England will improve in the foreseeable future."

    It issued continual bulletins as the threatening sulfuric cloud drifting over northern Scotland was forecast to reach down across the British Isles and over to continental Europe throughout Thursday. International flights to and from the United States are likely to be affected.

    "The ash borne by winds in the direction of Britain and Scandinavia is known to interfere with aircraft engines, causing them to shut down," it warned.

    The U.S. Geological Survey said about 100 aircraft encountered volcanic ash from 1983 to 2000. In some cases, engines shut down briefly after sucking in volcanic debris, but there have been no fatal incidents. The ash also interferes with visibility.

    Although some airports were closed at 7 a.m. Thursday, thousands of passengers who knew nothing of the situation turned up for flights, only to be turned away and told of indefinite delays. Gradually throughout the morning, disappointed travelers were clogging airports, and immobile aircraft were causing huge parking problems on runways.

    At Manchester Airport, crowded by about 45,000 people and 300 grounded aircraft, passenger Donna Thomas told BBC reporter that she'd expected to be in Orlando, Fla., later Thursday.

    "Now we're waiting for taxi to go home," she said. Her bored teenage son, Matthew, was equally fed up and complaining: "I had to get up at half five this morning, which wasn't good."

    Dr. Hazel Rymers, a vulcanologist from the Open University, told the BBC that the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull caused such a massive ash cloud because "its source is underneath an icecap about 200 meters thick."

    The eruption is causing "not so much lava flows but rocks turning into ash shooting up between 8 and 11 kilometers up, and that's what's causing the cloud."

    The closing of British skies is "a movable feast," said Cathy West of the British Airways' press office. "We've told passengers to go home and offered them refunds or rebooking."

    A spokesman for Heathrow Airport said, "We don't yet know when restrictions will be lifted," and workers there too were telling passengers not to come to the airport.

    Paul Haskins, a spokesman for the air traffic service, told the BBC at around midday that "the volcano is still erupting and affecting the U.K.'s upper air."

    Weather office officials were monitoring the situation, but the eventual outcome is unpredictable, and the reopening of airports ultimately depends on the wind and the activity of Eyjafjallajokull.

    In Iceland, hundreds of people fled floodwaters after the volcano under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier erupted Wednesday for the second time in less than a month. As water gushed down the mountainside, rivers rose up to 10 feet by Wednesday night, slicing the island nation's main road in half.

    Wednesday, April 14

    Ironic luck helps limit deaths from earthquake in Qinghai, China

    The following report from AP's Anita Chang, filed around 6 PM EDT, solves the mystery of how Chinese military were on the scene so fast after the initial quake. Remember the anti-government protests in Tibet and Tibetan regions of 'mainland' China in 2008? Tensions have continued in the Tibetan region of Yushu county, the epicenter of the earthquake on Wednesday morning. So a garrison of troops was stationed there. That's very fortunate because getting help to that area is a logistical nightmare:
    XINING, China — Soldiers and civilians used shovels and their bare hands to dig through collapsed buildings in search of survivors after strong earthquakes struck a mountainous Tibetan region of China on Wednesday, killing at least 589 people and injuring more than 10,000.

    The series of quakes flattened buildings across remote western Yushu county and sent survivors, many bleeding from their wounds, flooding into the streets of Jiegu township. State television showed block after devastated block of toppled mud and wood homes. Local officials said 85 percent of the structures had been destroyed.

    Residents and troops garrisoned in the town used shovels and their hands to pull survivors and bodies from the rubble much of the day. Several schools collapsed, with the state news agency saying at least 56 students died. Worst hit was the Yushu Vocational School, where Xinhua cited a local education official as saying 22 students died.

    Footage on Qinghai Satellite TV showed bodies wrapped in blankets lying on the ground while rescuers pulled shards of concrete from a pancaked school building.

    Crews set up emergency generators to restore operations at Yushu's airport, and by late afternoon the first of six flights landed carrying rescue workers and equipment. But the road to town was blocked by a landslide, hampering the rescue as temperatures dropped below freezing. Tens of thousands of the town's 70,000 people were without shelter, state media said.

    The airport in Xining, the nearest big city some 530 miles (860 kilometers) away, was filled in the predawn hours Thursday with Chinese troops in camouflage, firefighters and rescue teams leading dozens of sniffer dogs. They were whisked onto waiting buses for the difficult drive to the quake zone, which takes 12 hours under the best of conditions.

    Yang Xuesong, a rescuer from Shandong province in eastern China, said his biggest concern was the altitude. "This is the highlands. I don't know if the search dogs can get used to it," he said.

    While China's military is well-practiced in responding to disasters, the remote location posed logistical difficulties. The area sits at around 13,000 feet (4,000 meters) and is poor. Most people live in Jiegu, with the remaining — mostly herders — scattered across the broad valleys. The small airport has no refueling supplies, so relief flights were carrying extra jet fuel, reducing their capacity for hauling supplies, state media reported.

    "The situation here is difficult. Most of the buildings have collapsed. A lot of people are seriously injured," said Pu Wu, a director of the Jinba Project, which provides health care training for Tibetan communities. "We are scared. We are all camping outside and waiting for more tents to come."

    The local quake relief headquarters put the death toll at 589 and the injured at 10,000 by early Thursday morning, according to the Xinhua news agency. Wu Yong, commander of the army garrison, said the deaths "may rise further as lots of houses collapsed." Hospitals were overwhelmed, and rescue teams were slowed by damaged roads, strong winds and frequent aftershocks.

    Luo Song, a monk from a monastery in Yushu county, said his sister who worked at an orphanage told him three children were sent to a hospital but the facilities lacked equipment.

    "She said the hospitals are facing a lot of difficulty right now because there are no doctors, they have only bandages, they can't give injections, they can't put people on intravenous drips," the monk said by phone while on a visit to the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. China's rural hospitals typically are not well equipped.

    Workers released water from a nearby reservoir whose dam was cracked by the quake, according to the China Earthquake Administration.

    President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao urged "all-out efforts" to rescue survivors and dispatched a vice-premier to supervise the effort. The government immediately allocated $30 million (200 million yuan) for relief, and mobilized more than 5,000 soldiers, medical workers and other rescuers, joining 700 troops already on the ground.

    With many people forced outside, the provincial government said it was rushing 5,000 tents and 100,000 coats and blankets to the region, where average daily temperatures were around 43 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius).

    The initial quake, measured at magnitude-6.9 by the U.S. Geological Survey and 7.1 by the China Earthquake Networks Center, hit Yushu at 7:49 a.m. (7:49 p.m. EDT, 2349 GMT). It was followed by five more tremors within three hours, all but one registering 5.0 or higher.

    Residents of Jiegu, known by Tibetans as Gyegu, about 20 miles (30 kilometers) from the epicenter, fled dazed and sobbing as the ground shook, toppling houses, as well as temples, gas stations, electric poles and the top of a Buddhist pagoda in a park, witnesses and state media said.

    "Nearly all the houses made of mud and wood collapsed. There was so much dust in the air, we couldn't see anything," said Ren Yu, general manager of Yushu Hotel in Jiegu. "There was a lot of panic. People were crying on the streets. Some of our staff, who were reunited with their parents, were also in tears."

    More than 100 guests of the hotel, which was relatively undamaged, were evacuated to open spaces such as public squares, Ren told The Associated Press by phone. After transporting guests to safety, hotel staff helped in rescue efforts in other buildings, Ren said.

    "We pulled out 70 people, but some of them died on the way to the hospital," Ren said, adding other survivors were put in tents in the hotel yard while they awaited assistance.

    Many of the students boarded at the schools and were preparing to head to class when the quake struck. One rescue worker said he didn't know how many students had died but he had helped recover several bodies.

    "Students just got up and were yet to go to class when the quake happened. I recovered several bodies from the debris and found they were fully dressed," said Zhu Liang, a government worker who joined the rescue operation.

    The destruction of schools is an eerie echo of the massive magnitude-7.9 quake that hit neighboring Sichuan province two years ago, leaving nearly 90,000 people dead or missing. Thousands of students among the dead were killed when their schools collapsed. Poor design, shoddy construction and the lax enforcement of building codes were found to be rampant.

    Both Wednesday's quake and the one in Sichuan two years ago occurred along the Longmenshan fault, which runs underneath the mountains that divide the Tibetan plateau to the west and the Sichuan plain below.

    [...]

    Once a trading hub and a gateway to central Tibet, Yushu and surrounding environs were among the Tibetan areas caught up in the anti-government protests that swept the region in March 2008. Tensions have simmered since, and the region has been closed to foreigners off and on.

    The garrison of troops who were the first to respond to the quake is stationed in the area to help maintain order. CCTV reported that soon after the quake, troops secured banks, oil depots and caches of explosives.

    Associated Press Writers Charles Hutzler and Tini Tran and researchers Zhao Liang and Yu Bing contributed to this report.

    Katla Watch: Iceland evacuates hundreds as volcano erupts again

    Just yesterday I read that the eruption had ended. Today brings a fresh eruption, this one much stronger than the last. Katla is still quiet.

    By GUDJON HELGASON and JILL LAWLESS (AP) – April 14, 2010 - 11:00 AM EDT
    REYKJAVIK, Iceland — A volcano under a glacier in Iceland erupted Wednesday for the second time in less than a month, melting ice, spewing smoke and steam, closing a major road and forcing hundreds of people to flee rising floodwaters.

    Authorities evacuated 800 residents from around the Eyjafjallajokull glacier as rivers rose by up to 10 feet (3 meters).

    Emergency officials and scientists said the eruption under the ice cap was 10 to 20 times more powerful than one last month, and carried a much greater risk of widespread flooding.

    "This is a very much more violent eruption, because it's interacting with ice and water," said Andy Russell, an expert in glacial flooding at the University of Newcastle in northern England. "It becomes much more explosive, instead of a nice lava flow oozing out of the ground."

    Rognvaldur Olafsson, a chief inspector for the Icelandic Civil Protection Agency, said no lives or properties were in immediate danger. Scientists said there was no sign of increased activity at the much larger Katla volcano nearby.

    Iceland's Meteorological Office said a plume of steam rose at least five miles (eight kilometers) into the air. Scientists aboard a Coast Guard plane that flew over the volcano said the new fissure appeared to be up to 1.2 miles (2 kilometers) long.

    There were no immediate signs of large clouds of volcanic ash, which could disrupt air travel between Europe and North America. Some domestic flights were canceled, but Iceland's international airport remained open.

    The volcano, about 75 miles (120 kilometers) east of Reykjavik, erupted March 20 after almost 200 years of silence.

    The original eruption petered out earlier this week. But Gunnar Gudmundsson, a geophysicist at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, said there were a series of tremors overnight, and rivers in the area began rising Wednesday morning — strong evidence of a new eruption under the glacier.

    Last month's eruption struck near the glacier in an area that had no ice. Gudmundsson said the new eruption appeared to be about eight or nine kilometers (five to six miles) west of the original fissure.

    "Most probably this eruption is taking place at the summit ... under the ice," he said.

    Pall Einarsson, a geophysicist at the University of Iceland, said magma was melting a hole in the 650-foot (200 meter) thick ice covering the volcano's crater, sending floodwater coursing down the glacier into lowland areas.

    Residents were evacuated to a Red Cross center in the nearby community of Hvolsvollur, the Civil Protection Agency said.

    Iceland's main coastal ring road was closed near the volcano, and workers smashed a hole in the highway in a bid to give the rushing water a clear route to the coast and prevent a major bridge from being swept away.[...]

    The last time there was an eruption near the 100-square-mile (160 square-kilometer) Eyjafjallajokull glacier was in 1821.

    A bigger worry is Katla, which in the past has erupted in tandem with Eyjafjallajokull. Katla is located under the vast Myrdalsjokull ice cap. An eruption could cause widespread flooding and disrupt air traffic between Europe and North America. The last major eruption took place in 1918, and vulcanologists say a new blast is overdue.

    "So far there have been no signs of the reawakening of the Katla volcano, but a lot of things can still happen, so we are monitoring it quite closely," Einarsson said.

    Lawless reported from London. Associated Press writer Danica Kirka also contributed to this report.

    File under Signs and Portents: Brazil's Christ the Redeemer statue cut off by mudslides

    The iconic Christ the Redeemer statue was named one of the new wonders of the world in 2007, and is visited by two million tourists a year. The statue has towered over Rio de Janeiro for the past eight decades. Access to the statue was cut off for the first time in its 80-year history when Tijuca National Park's Corcovado mountain on which it sits was hit by severe mudslides, park officials said. Roads were blocked by debris.

    Work is underway to clear the debris and mend roads, and Rio de Janeiro state's governor said as many as 150 bodies could still be underneath the mud in the Morro do Bumba shanty town. Set in the municipality of Niteroi, across the bay from the city of Rio, Morro do Bumba was built on top of a disused landfill, making it prone to landslides. In Rio de Janeiro city, most of the landslide victims were residents of shanty towns, where about a fifth of Rio de Janeiro's population live.

    Quotes taken from BBC report today.

    Deadly Earthquake Strikes China's Tibet Plateau in Qinghai Province

    Posted online about ten minutes ago, report from VOA News:
    Western China has been rocked by a powerful earthquake and strong aftershocks, which have claimed more than 400 lives. More than 8,000 people have been injured and many more people may be trapped in damaged buildings. The earthquake struck the western Chinese province of Qinghai early Wednesday, collapsing buildings in villages around the region. The China Earthquake Administration estimates the quake as being a 7.1 magnitude, while the U.S. Geological Survey puts it at 6.9. [More]
    China's military quickly began rescue operations. See also this backgrounder on the most powerful quakes to strike Qinghai since 2001.