US strengthens base in Manbij as tensions increase in region

May 9, Reuters:

MANBIJ, Syria (Reuters) - U.S. forces set up a new base in Manbij in northern Syria some three months ago after Turkish threats to march on the town, a U.S.-backed militia official there said on Wednesday.

[...]

The new garrison, where a Reuters photographer took pictures this week [see website for photos], also houses French troops, said Sharfan Darwish, spokesman for the Manbij Military Council of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which is spearheaded by the YPG.

U.S. and French forces patrol the front between the SDF and Turkey-backed insurgents, and the base was established shortly after Turkey launched its assault on the Afrin region, Darwish said.

[...] 

 August 9, FARS:

TEHRAN (FNA)- The US forces strengthened their military base in Manbij as tensions in regions occupied by the US-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Northern Aleppo have intensified.

The Arabic-language al-Manar news channel [Lebanese satellite TV station associated with Hezbollah] reported that a military convoy of the US army consisting of several military vehicles has been sent from Eastern Euphrates to the US military base in the village of al-Sa'eidiyeh in Western Manbij.

Local sources in Manbij reported on Thursday that unknown assailants attacked the Manbij Military Council's court in the town and clashed with authorities inside it.

Meantime, a bomb was detonated near Sheikh Aqil tomb in the center of Manbij while a group of SDF-affiliated forces were passing, forcing the SDF to put on alert its forces and declare a curfew.

The sources added that a new wave of tensions between the residents and the US-led forces has erupted in the region, noting that the SDF forces detained a number of people in Aqil district after the explosion.

In a relevant development in the province on Wednesday, one of the notorious commanders of a Turkey-backed militant group was found dead in Afrin region in Northwestern Aleppo amid growing insecurity in occupied regions in Northern Syria, local sources reported.

The sources said that the body of Omar al-Kadro, a commander of the 51st Brigade affiliated to the Free Army, was found in the town of Jandaris in Southwestern Afrin.

The sources went on to say that militants of the Turkey-led Euphrates Shield were kept on alert five days ago after al-Kadro was kidnapped by unknown assailants from the main base of the Euphrates Shield forces in the town of al-Bab in Northeastern Aleppo.

They further said that heavy infighting erupted between the 51th Brigade and Sultan Morad Firqa in Akhtarin region after the attackers kidnapped al-Kadro.

Infighting and assassination of militant groups' commanders in Northwestern Syria has started a fresh wave of panic covering the terrorist front.

[END REPORT]

********

  

"New data show many of world’s most water-scarce regions growing even drier"

"In places like southern India politicians openly use water as a political weapon ..."

From Trump is wrong about California's wildfires — but right about its water; Scott Moore, August 9, 2018, The Hill:

[...]

In 1995, World Bank official Ismail Serageldin famously warned, “the wars of the next century will be fought over water — unless we change our approach to managing this precious and vital resource.” But this past summer, NASA provided a vivid reminder that despite this caution, not much has changed over the past 25 years. Instead, the new data show that many of the world’s most water-scarce regions growing even drier. From 2002 to 2016, Saudi Arabia lost some six gigatons of water — enough to fill 2.4 million Olympic swimming pools.

California was only slightly behind, thanks mostly to over-use of underground water supplies, which can take decades or even centuries to replenish. Does our failure to heed Serageldin’s warning mean that we can expect this to be a century of wildfires and water wars?

Fortunately, the American West actually provides one of the best examples of how serious water shortages can give rise to lasting cooperation — even though it has also played host to some of history’s most notorious water conflicts. The region is set to face droughts of ever-greater severity and duration, and has a long history of conflict, including a 1934 incident when Arizona mobilized its National Guardsmen just to prevent water from flowing into California. But despite water levels at historically low levels, there’s no sign of conflict on the horizon.

In 1999, the states that share the Colorado River produced a preliminary agreement for how to share the burden of water shortages, and in the years since have strengthened it with a series of water-saving measures that help prepare the southwest for the next drought. 

Along the way, environmental groups got involved, helping put in place measures to ensure continuous flow throughout the lower Colorado, bringing life back to parts of the river that had long run dry. The key factor behind this success was that state and federal officials didn’t try to solve the problem on their own, but worked with all stakeholders, including water users and conservationists, to build trust — and, eventually, lasting cooperation.

But to prevent the risk of water conflict, countries need to take water management far more seriously. Doing so is notoriously hard: Everyone needs water, and getting all users to agree on who gets how much is one of the toughest political challenges there is. Few countries have a good way to bring all those who share the same source of water, often including farmers, urban-dwellers, and industry, together to make decisions over how common resources should be used.

In places like southern India, politicians openly use water as a political weapon, accusing opponents of literally leaving their constituents high and dry. In the U.S., states tend to settle water disputes through long and costly litigation. Florida and Georgia, for example, are locked in a court battle that cost Georgia over $50 million last year alone.

There is a better way. In the 1960s, Congress passed a long-forgotten bill called the Water Resources Planning Act that set up several inter-state River Basin Commissions to promote cooperation in shared river basins. The commissions were successful in getting states on the same page with respect to issues like controlling pollution, and showed promise to address other issues like flooding.

Unfortunately, federal funding for the commissions was eliminated in a Reagan-era budget battle, and America’s rivers have fallen through Washington’s institutional cracks ever since. If President Trump is serious about fixing how America uses its water, his administration should work with Congress to restore funding for the commissions.

It’s tempting to think that California’s wildfires and the water shortages that accompany them foreshadow serious water wars in the decades to come. But with the right investments in institutions and policy reform, a drier future need not be a more violent one.

Scott Moore is a senior fellow at the Penn Water Center and author of the book Subnational Hydropolitics: Conflict, Cooperation, and Institution-Building in Shared River Basins.

[END OP-ED]

**********

Syria's First Lady Starts Breast Cancer Treatment

In a region of the world where public talk of cancer is taboo, Syria's President announces the First Lady's treatment for breast cancer.  

Bashar with Asma in a hospital room 

Damascus: Syria's First Lady Starts Breast Cancer Treatment
August 8, 2018 - 1:01 PM EDT
The Associated Press via Republican Herald

BEIRUT (AP) — Syria's first lady Asma Assad has begun treatment for breast cancer, the presidency said Wednesday, wishing her a speedy recovery.

Such public announcements are uncommon in the Arab world, where cancer is considered a taboo.

The presidency posted on its Facebook page a photo of President Bashar Assad sitting next to his wife in a hospital room with an IV in her left arm. The accompanying statement said the "malignant tumor" was discovered in its early stages.

State news agency SANA said the first lady is undergoing treatment at a military hospital in the Syrian capital of Damascus. It gave no further details.

Later Wednesday, the presidency posted another photo of the first lady walking, carrying a laptop in one hand and a cup in the other. Her left wrist was bandaged.

"I belong to the (Syrian) people, who taught the world steadfastness, strength and how to face difficulties," read the caption in Arabic. "My determination comes from your determination and strength in the past years."

The 42 year-old Asma Assad's family is originally from the central province of Homs. She was born and raised in Britain before moving back to Syria after meeting the president.

Since Syria's civil war broke out Asma Assad has mostly been seen in public receiving families of fallen soldiers or hosting people wounded in the conflict, now in its eighth year, which has killed more than 400,000 people. [Pundita note: that's a disputed statistic, and she's been seen in public on many additional occasions, including attending Christmas choir rehearsal at a church near the frontline of the war fighting in Damascus.] 

[...]

Asma and Bashar Assad have been married for 18 years and have three children, Hafez, Zein and Karim.

[END REPORT]

**********

Wildfire smoke covers 75 pct of California, Mendocino Complex Fire chars 469 sq mi and counting

Mendocino Complex Fire now over 300,000 acres; The Mercury News, last update 3:42 pm 

Smoke from California wildfires now covers three quarters of the state

By John Blackstone

August 8, 2018 - 6:40 PM EDT last updated 7:18 PM 

CBS News

"We have [burned] areas here that have never had any type of a burn history" 

"If there's any silver lining to the Mendocino Complex Fire, it's that the thick smoke is actually providing some shade, helping to keep the temperature down and suppress the fire. But experts warn those conditions can change at any moment."

MENDOCINO COUNTY, Calif. — Police arrested a 51-year-old man in Southern California on Wednesday, accusing him of setting the Holy Fire south of Los Angeles. Forrest Gordon Clark allegedly sent an email warning "this place will burn," before the fire broke out Monday.

It is one of 15 large fires burning statewide, and July was the hottest month on record in California.

There is little relief on the fire lines, just more pain as more land is consumed by flames. Firefighters had hoped to contain the fast-growing Holy Fire. Even when massive drops of retardant slow the spread in one area, embers ignited a new stretch of hillside.

"It could jump over a quarter mile and start a whole new fire," one resident told CBS News.

Nearby residents are facing a giant wall of flames perilously close to neighborhoods.

It is a scene played out over and over throughout California, especially in Mendocino, where the largest wildfire in state history continues to rage.

"We have areas here that have never had any type of a burn history," Cal Fire analyst Todd Hopkins said.

A nerve center at the Mendocino Complex Fire base camp has technology that helps pinpoint hotspots which helps more than 4,000 firefighters know exactly where to deploy.

"The technology has helped us out in the field a lot more," National Weather Service meteorologist Mike Smith told CBS News. "It's the kind of information I never had 30 years ago."

And there signs of progress, especially in one spot where firefighters were victorious in cutting a fire break and stopping flames before it consumed a ridge.

Until full containment, smoke now covers three quarters of California. And there's another toll for thousands of evacuees.

"Right now, it's pretty much just day by day," a Mendocino evacuee told CBS News. "Pray that ... tomorrow will bring more containment."

If there's any silver lining to the Mendocino Complex Fire, it's that the thick smoke is actually providing some shade, helping to keep the temperature down and suppress the fire. But experts warn those conditions can change at any moment.

Are devastating wildfires a new normal? "It's actually worse than that," climate scientist says

[END REPORT]

*********

Turkey tries to stop growing reconciliation between Idlib militants and Damascus

The title of this post reflects the last sentence in a FARS report today headlined "Terrorists Concerned about Growing Wave of Pro-Peace Activities in Northwestern Syria":

Turkey has recently ordered a number of terrorist groups to merge and form the National Liberation Front in Northern Syria.

It's long been apparent to close observers of the Syrian War that from the beginning it's been a proxy war staged by governments seeking to gain control of  Syria. The most recent illustration was the spectacularly fast collapse of anti-Damascus fighting groups in southwestern Syria after they received a clear message from the White House that they could no longer depend on U.S. help.

But this message ran counter to the designs of a powerful faction in Trump's own political party and in the U.S. Democratic party as well as a faction in the Pentagon and U.S. Department of State. It certainly ran counter to the designs of the British, French, Saudi, and Turkish regimes with a faction in Israel's regime bringing up the rear in recent years.

It's possible that the British, French, Israeli, and even American factions are at this stage simply trying to assist Saudi Arabia's designs on Syria. In any case I have yet to see evidence that they've given up. So in my view if they can't unseat the government in Syria they can still try to balkanize the country. I'd say that's most certainly the case for Turkey's regime.

FARS
August 8, 2018 - 3:25

TEHRAN (FNA)- Terrorist groups have widened their arrest operations against pro-peace activists in different regions in the Northwestern province of Idlib as a growing number of people and militants are demanding peace with the Syrian Army.

Tahrir al-Sham Hay'at (the Levant Liberation Board or the Al-Nusra Front) declared curfew in the villages and towns of al-Tamanna, Um Jalal, Khowein, Tahtaya, al-Sarj, al-Tah, al-Haditi, Halba, al-Rafa, Abu Hoba, Kafr Basin, Baboulin, Sahyan, al-Deir al-Sharqi, al-Sarman and Jajanaz in Southeastern Idlib.

Local sources said that Tahrir al-Sham's move to declare curfew is aimed at paving the grounds for conducting arrest operations in the region to detain those people who intend to join the peace agreement with the army.

In the meantime, militants of the National Liberation Front, another main terrorist coalition, are breaking into people's houses East of the town of Ma'arat al-Nu'aman in Southern Idlib, arresting those who had tried to join the peace plan in the region.

A fresh wave of fear has covered the terrorist front as the army is preparing to launch a large-scale operation in Idlib and a main part of the militant front has intensified efforts to join the reconciliation plan.

Local sources reported on Monday that terrorists of the National Liberation Front captured over fifty pro-peace activists accusing them of links to Damascus government.

The sources further said that the National Liberation Front has dispatched a large number of gunmen to Western and Eastern Hama and kept them on alert as their comrades in Idlib are concerned over the endorsement of a peace plan in their regions.

The Front, meantime, set up more checkpoints in al-Ghaab Plain and Shahshabou in Western Hama.

Turkey has recently ordered a number of terrorist groups to merge and form the National Liberation Front in Northern Syria.

[END REPORT]

See also: Turkish Army Turning Afrin Farms into Military Base; August 8, 2018, FARS

*********

"Syrian Army Cuts off ISIL's Supply Lines from US-Run Al-Tanf to Sweida"

August 8, 2018 - 3:54
FARS [quoting Sputnik's Arabic language site]

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Syrian Army forces managed to advance more in the Southern province of Sweida on Wednesday, cutting off ISIL's supply lines from the US-run al-Tanf base in Southern Homs to Sweida.

The army forces managed to impose control over Tal Zarin and al-Mari'eiyeh region, deploying at the strategic al-Safa hills.

Field sources, meantime, reported that the army has captured a part of al-Safa hills. They further said that the army advanced almost 20 km in the depth of Syria's Badiyeh [desert], prevailing over ISIL's positions.

In the meantime the Arabic-language website of Sputnik reported that the army's recent advances in Badiyeh have cut off ISIL's supply lines from Sweida to the US army-run al-Tanf base.

Reports said earlier today that the army forces, backed up by artillery and missile units, advanced against ISIL in Rami Shabaki Sharihi region in Eastern Sweida, seizing control over al-Tamthouneh, Haviyeh al-Abed, Wadi al-Lahaf, Arz al-Zabiriyat, Rosoum al-Manatir, Wadi al-Sham and Ra'as al-Jamrah in Eastern, Northeastern and Southeastern Sweida.

Other units of the army engaged in fierce clashes with ISIL in al-Hossan and Arz al-Kara'a regions, repelling terrorists' attacks.

ISIL suffered heavy casualties in the failed attacks and retreated from the battlefield to evade more casualties.

[...]

********

Turkey in Syria

"How Mendocino Complex became California's monster fire"

Very helpful explainer from the Los Angeles Times; addresses several questions. I want to emphasize these passages from the article:

The fire, while massive, has destroyed far less property than other recent infernos. The wine country fires last year, while smaller in size, killed more than 40 people and destroyed thousands of homes.

[...] 

For the most part, the Mendocino Complex fire has been burning into forest area and away from homes. Fewer than 100 structures have been lost and no fatalities have been reported. By contrast, the Carr fire in Redding [which is still burning] burned more than 100 homes and killed six people.

And

Why is the area around Clear Lake so susceptible to fire?

[details the recent wildfires in the area]

UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain cited several factors for the destruction in Lake County: explosively flammable vegetation, warm overnight temperatures and the lingering effect of years of drought.

“This is a part of the state that I think overnight temperatures have played an enormous role,” Swain said. “It’s sort of this middle elevation where you’re above the marine layer but you’re not high enough in the mountains to really cool down either. So you’re sort of in this zone where fires can burn, with the increase in temperatures, as we’ve seen, all day and all night.”

[...]

*********

Saving domesticated animals from Mendocino Complex fires

Photo: ASPCA

I don't want to think about how many wild animals have died in these fires, but there is large effort to save the domesticated ones that owners trying to escape the fast-moving fires couldn't take with them.  

ASPCA steps in to rescue piglets, llamas, cats, dogs from Mendocino Complex fire
By Michelle Robertson, SFGATE
Updated 10:55 am PDT, Tuesday, August 7, 2018

SF Gate [San Francisco] with reporting from the Associated Press

[See SFGATE website for 54 photographs of the fires and rescues including the one above]

Piglets, llamas and other types of domesticated animals have been rescued from a massive duo of wildfires burning in Mendocino and Lake counties.

The American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (ASPCA) joined members of Lake County Care and Control to rescue and shelter more than 2,500 animals displaced by the Mendocino Complex fire, considered the second-largest wildfire in state history as of Monday.

Responders from both agencies are checking individual residences for pets or livestock left behind, and conducting wellness checks to provide food and water at the behest of pet owners.

Those wishing to report lost pets or request rescues can contact Lake County Animal Care & Control at (707) 263-0278.

"The wildfires in Northern California are putting pets and their owners in tremendous risk, and we're proud to support Lake County Animal Care and Control to help rescue and care for those animals," said Matt Bershadker, President and CEO of the ASPCA, in a statement.

Displaced animals are sheltered in a 30-foot trailer specifically designed to house a variety of animals in emergencies. Follow-up teams will later assist in relocation of the rescued animals.

[...]

********
  

Mendocino Complex Fire now largest in California state history and still going strong

Monday, August 6, Los Angeles Times:

The massive Mendocino Complex fire jumped across at least four creeks, one major road and a fire line cut by a bulldozer in a single six-mile run this weekend toward Leesville, a tiny unincorporated waystation in Colusa County.

Typically, any one of those breaks could have halted the spread of wildfire. But shifting winds and brittle-dry vegetation sent flames — up to 300 feet high in some areas — leapfrogging in all directions in three Northern California counties and on both sides of scenic Clear Lake, past these man-made and natural obstacles.

The erratic conflagration has chewed through more than 273,000 acres and 68 homes in 10 days, making it the second-largest wildfire on record in California. [...]

Tuesday, August 7, 11:07 AM EDT,  Accuweather:

The Mendocino Complex Fire has charred more than 290,000 acres, making it the largest blaze in California's history in terms of acreage burned.

Firefighters will continue to face local gusty winds and mounting high temperatures this week.

To put this in perspective, the massive blaze is burning an area larger than New York City.

The Mendocino Complex fire is comprised of the Ranch and River fires. A total of 11,300 structures are being threatened, while 143 have been destroyed.

The previous record was set by the Thomas Fire just eight months ago, which scorched 281,893 acres and destroyed over 1,000 buildings.

As AccuWeather predicted, hot and dry weather allowed the Mendocino Complex Fire to spread rapidly this past weekend, which resulted in mandatory evacuations for portions of Colusa County, California, on Saturday evening. Over 20,000 people have now been evacuated from Colusa, Lake and Mendocino counties.

Heat and poor relative humidity will continue to plague firefighters battling this complex fire each afternoon and evening into early this week.

Residents who have not been forced to evacuate but living in the vicinity of the fires should closely monitor alerts from government officials and be ready to evacuate at a moment's notice.

Full containment of the blaze is not expected until early September.

The shifting blazes can further put the lives of firefighters at risk. Smoke may also be spread farther away from the fires than in recent days, creating dangerously poor air quality conditions throughout the western U.S.

As windy conditions become more localized, attention will turn toward dangerous heat set to build back across the West this week.

Early this week, temperatures are expected to soar well into the 90s in Downtown Los Angeles. A high near 85 F is more common this time of year.

The neighboring valleys can anticipate triple-digit heat, while the deserts from Palm Springs, California, to Phoenix, Arizona, will endure highs in the 110s. Temperatures in a few locations along the Colorado River can approach or crack the 120-degree mark.

Temperatures will also climb farther north across the West this week. Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread highs in the 100s are expected from Sacramento and Redding, California, to Reno, Nevada; Medford and Pendleton, Oregon; and Boise, Idaho.

Multiple days of highs in the 90s are once again anticipated for Portland, Oregon, and Seattle this week before cooler air may return by next weekend.

The heat will further feed the ongoing blazes.

Residents and firefighters will once again have to take the necessary precautions to protect against heat exhaustion and stroke.

"Rapidly-rising air caused by the extreme heat helps the fire to grow explosively as the fire will create its own wind, as well as fire vortices (firenadoes) and tree crowning (when the leaves get engulfed by flames), even on otherwise calm days," AccuWeather Meteorologist and volunteer firefighter Evan Duffey said.

 [...]

 

"Mendocino Complex Fire explodes to 5th largest blaze in California history:

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

August 05, 2018 - 4:48:21 PM EDT

Accuweather.com

The Mendocino Complex Fire has charred more than 254,000 acres, making it the fifth largest blaze in California's history. Firefighters will continue to face local gusty winds and building heat this week.

Officials say a utility worker in his 20s was been killed on the western edge of the Carr fire in Shasta County. This is now the seventh person to die in the destructive fire burning near Redding, California.

A weak storm from the Pacific Ocean kicked up gusty winds across parts of California, Nevada and Wyoming on Saturday.

These winds contributed to the spreading of the Mendocino Complex fire, which resulted in mandatory evacuations for portions of Colusa County, California, on Saturday evening.

The Mendocino Complex fire is comprised of the Ranch and River fires. Together, these blazes have charred more than 250,000 acres near Ukiah, California. This is the fifth largest California wildfire on record in terms of acreage burned. A total of 15,300 structures are being threatened.

Breezy conditions and relatively low humidity will continue to plague firefighters battling this complex fire each afternoon and evening into early this week.
During the same time, stronger Sundowner winds are anticipated to develop and significantly increase the fire danger around Santa Barbara.

[...] 

There is much more in the Accuweather report about wildfires currently burning in the West; the report includes weather predictions for the region for the upcoming week, all of which point to unusually high temperatures. 

The Complex fire is not to be confused with the famous Carr fire in California, which is still only 41 percent contained and at this point has charred 154,000 acres. But it's the very hot weather that's making all the current wildfires so destructive. The Accuweather report noted:

"Rapidly-rising air caused by the extreme heat helps the fire to grow explosively as the fire will create its own wind, as well as fire vortices (firenadoes) and tree crowning (when the leaves get engulfed by flames), even on otherwise calm days," AccuWeather Meteorologist and volunteer firefighter Evan Duffey said.

On Thursday, July 26, the Carr Fire produced a fire whirl that caused damage equal to that of an EF 3 tornado with winds in excess of 143 mph.

[...]

********

Rania Khalek's stunning revelations about how peace is coming to Syria

"The problem wasn’t the protests, it was sectarianism." 

The quote is from the first of Rania Khalek's two-part report on the Syrian-led reconciliation process in Syria, which have played the deciding role in bringing the Syrian war to end -- a little-known fact that is only slowly coming to light. The internet is now breathlessly awaiting the second installment (well, at least the part of the internet that pays close attention to the war) but the first one, published August 2 at Max Blumenthal's Gray Zone Project, corrects so many misperceptions it's already created an uproar in the Syrian War Twittersphere. 

The report is titled Meet the Mystery Fixer Who Negotiated Syria Out of Seven Years of War: "How a nearly unknown businessman named Khaled al Ahmad became Damascus’ secret liaison to the West and quietly dealt Syria’s grinding war to a close."

Ya mean it wasn't the Russians who did it? I did note the report corrects misperceptions -- although certainly the Russian government got behind al Ahmad's efforts and greatly aided the reconciliation negotiations, and of course it took battlefield victories to provide enough breathing room for the reconciliations to take place. The unwavering support  of President Bashar al Assad for al Ahmad's efforts is also a critical factor, as Khalek makes clear.  

But I find the overarching importance of the report is that it shows al Ahmad's approach, with intellectual assistance from journalist Nir Rosen (see the report), has implications for many conflict situations outside Syria. So it's a great irony that a country that has suffered so much from armed conflict is producing an approach to conflict resolution that can become a model for all nations to follow. As Twittersphere denizen EHSANI2 notes:

With all mixed reactions to @RaniaKhalek article below, it’s important to stay focused on the subject of reconciliation as a policy tool compared to the national land top down approach of Geneva that was pushed by a number of policy makers at the time. Small is beautiful

Indeed; al Ahmad's successes are a triumph for localism, a subject that is of great interest to me. So in this post I'll skip the revelations about his role to quote from passages in Khalek's report that describe her eyewitnessing of how the localist approach turned the tide in one Syrian region. Before the quotes, a couple notes:  

> EHSANI2 writes that al Ahmad is an Alawite not, as Khalek speculated, a Sunni Muslim.

> The localism Khalek describes is obviously not based on  ethnic/religious or tribal or clan affiliations; it's about Syrians coming together as Syrians. But here I sound a cautionary note. Localism makes sense only within the context of a nation-state. How, then, to thread the camel of localism through the needle's eye of nationhood? Thailand's late king, Bhumibol Adulyadej, had the full answer but in one sentence localism must be grounded in self-reliance else it's faux localism; as such it's extremely vulnerable to balkanizing forces.

From "Meet the Mystery Fixer Who Negotiated Syria Out of Seven Years of War" by Rania Khalek:

[...]

What was most striking during my visit to Hammeh was the ratio of schools to mosques. I lost count of the number of mosques after I reached six. I asked Ebrahim how many schools were in Hammeh. He said five, but that includes just one high school. This was a noticeable pattern in areas of Syria that fell to the opposition—the mosques seemed to exceed the number of schools.

After 2000, when Bashar al Assad took over the presidency following his father’s death, he relaxed some of the country’s anti-religious laws and thousands of new mosques were built. A senior official with the ministry of public record estimated that 10,000 mosques were built under Bashar. This number does not include the Koran memorization schools the government sponsored during this time. Many of these mosques were funded by private donors from outside the country, mostly from Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Ebrahim and his friends explained to me the role of the mosques in the protests that erupted in their town and later the role of foreigners.

When the uprising began, boys would pour out of the mosques after Friday prayers to protest after being riled up by their local sheikhs, said Ebrahim.

“There were never any problems in Hammeh that I can remember until 2011,” he said, explaining how the conflict in Hammeh evolved. “When the protests started here, a lot of young men went out and protested. They usually went after Friday prayer, the imams encouraged it. The problem wasn’t the protests, it was sectarianism. Hammeh is Sunni. There are neighborhoods around it that are Alawite and Shia.”

Ebrahim continued, “In 2011 it was just harmless protests. But in 2012 it became sectarian. Within 10 days heavy weapons were coming in. In 2012, we also found foreigners here, they started fighting the Syrian army. There was a Jordanian man living in Hammeh. He fought in Iraq, then came to Syria and settled here. The Jordanian man played a role in arming the protests. Then there was the first agreement in beginning of 2013 for a truce and it lasted two years. We all left during this time, living outside Hammeh. We didn’t try coming back because it was too dangerous.”

[...]

*********

"Many 'rebel' leaders in Idlib are Saudis and Egyptians"

All kinds of interesting info in MoA's latest Syrian War sitrep, which I've posted below, including this zinger: "The quarter million displaced persons the UN claimed to be in the area have not been found." A UN typist's typo, perhaps? 

I'd like to add one detail to Bernhard's mention that Russia initiated talks with the French and German regimes about the return of refugees to Syria and financial help for Syria's recovery from the war. From RFERL/RL on July 29, Erdogan: Turkey Plans Summit On Syria Conflict In September:

Turkey, France, and Germany support separate rebel groups.

I don't know where RFE/RL got that information. It says at the end of the report that it's "With reporting from AFP and TASS" although no links to any relevant reports at those sites are provided. I do know that RFE/RL -- Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty -- is famously an American 'information operation' and that of course the mentioned three countries are NATO members. 

I find it surprising that Germany would be supporting any rebel groups in Syria -- and doubly surprising that RFE/RL would mention this. Yet any ongoing German/French  support for rebels is perhaps another reason a Russian envoy had a little talk with his counterparts in those two countries. 

As to Turkey calling a summit in September about the war -- I think maybe that would be a little late in the day, so I'm not sure it will take place. Now to MoA's sitrep:

Oh goody, another incomprensible Syrian War map

Syria Sitrep - The Southwest Is Liberated - On To Idlib

August 1, 2018 - 3:20 PM
Moon of Alabama

The Syrian Arab Army campaign in southwest Syria is coming to an end. The whole (green/black) area held by "rebels" and ISIS just six weeks ago is now liberated. After early resistance was overcome by a large force, many "rebel" groups gave up their fight and agreed to hand over their heavy weapons to the government forces. Those who accepted reconciliation agreements were granted amnesty, a few preferred to be evacuated to Idleb governorate.

[see above map, posted at MoA] 

The quarter million displaced persons the UN claimed to be in the area have not been found.

After the eastern half was cleaned and "rebels" in Daraa city defeated the fight continued in the Quneitra area along the ceasefire to the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. Here the early resistance was again strong but soon broke down. The "rebels" were offered a new alternative. They could attach their units to the Syrian army. More than 400 are now serving with the 4th Armored Division led by Maher Assad, the brother of Syria's president. Others were formed into the separate 'Ahmed' brigade. Many of these former "rebels" helped to overcome the resistance of the last ISIS fighters at the southwestern border with Jordan. A few of the ISIS nutters survived and were taken to prison (vid).

This model of converting "moderate rebels" into government soldiers to fight al-Qaeda, ISIS and other radical Islamists will be an important element in the upcoming operation to liberate Idleb.

During the last phase of the attack on ISIS holdouts in Quneitra some 150 other ISIS fighters, who had earlier dispersed in the southeastern desert, launched a surprise attack on Suweida city which is home of many Druze people. Lax guarding and likely some inside help enabled the night assault. The ISIS fighters went from house to house and slaughtered more than 250 civilians before escaping. A similar number of people were wounded.

Forces that were part of the southwestern Daraa operation have now been dispatched to comb through the semi-desert where these ISIS fighters are hiding. A similar situation exists in Iraq's Anbar desert. The size of the areas and the hilly geography make it difficult to find a dispersed enemy. It will require continuous long-range desert patrols and several large sweeping operations to hunt these animals fiends down.

Some of the military forces which took part in the southwestern battle had already moved north. Others will now follow. Idleb province is largely under control of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, the former Jabhat al Nusra and part of al-Qaeda. The total opposition force in Idleb governorate is estimated at 80-120,000 of which some 15,000 are foreigners including large contingents of Uighurs, Turkmen and Chechnians. 

Many of the "rebel" leaders in Idleb are Saudis and Egyptians. In total there are less than 2 million people in the (green) rebel held area. The Syrian government has opened several corridors to enable civilians to flee towards its side.

[another incomprehensible map]

The large government campaign to liberate Idleb governorate will only start in September. Preliminary 'shaping' operations by artillery and air will prepare the battlefield.

The western "rebel" area in Latakia near the Turkish border will have to be recovered before proceeding towards Jisr al-Shughur where many foreign fighters reside. The first large phase will recover the areas south of the (Latakia) - Jisr al-Shughur - Saraqib - Aleppo road. There will likely be several axes of operations from the east, south and west. This for now would avoid a fight for the city of Idleb. The resistance by local Syrian "rebels" will likely be weak. They are demoralized and only think of how to escape from another fight. The Idleb campaign will likely take no longer than three to four months.

Turkey is responsible for the 'de-escalation area' of Idleb governorate. It was supposed to separate the "moderate rebels" from al-Qaeda and other radical fighters but did not succeed. Turkish forces holds some 12 outposts along the current demarcation line between the government and the rebels. It is not expected that these isolated, platoon sized units will take part in any fight.

Turkey's President Erdogan had hoped to keep parts of Syria for Turkey. That is unlikely to happen. Turkey is in deep trouble. Today the Trump administration sanctioned the Turkish Ministers for Justice and Interior for keeping U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson under Turkish house arrest. Congress threatens to sanction Turkey should it buy the Russian S-400 air-defense system. 

The Turkish Lira just broke through the 5 lira per US$ mark and continuous to fall. Many Turkish companies and banks took loans in U.S. dollars and Euros and will have problems repaying these. The U.S. military supports the anti-Turkish PKK/YPG militias in northeast Syria. Turkey has nowhere to go. NATO will not come to its help. It cannot start a war against Syrian forces, which have the support of Russia, without strong U.S. backing.

Over the last two days another round of the Astana talks between Russia, Turkey and Iran was held in Sochi, Russia. The final statement again emphasizes Syria's territorial integrity and sovereignty. With the Syrian army coming north, Turkey can no longer justify to hold onto Syrian land.

After the recent Sochi talks Alexander Lavrentiev, President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy to Syria, spoke (Ru, machine translation) with TASS news agency about the Idleb campaign. He hopes that a big fight over Idleb can be avoided. The plan is to incentivize "moderate rebels" to join the Syrian army in the fight against the Islamists as recently seen in Daraa. The Russian reconciliation officers are ready to make such offers.

Last week the Syrian government held talks with the Kurdish YPG/PKK organization that acts as U.S. proxy in northeast Syria. The Kurds want strong autonomy or even a federate state with its own income sources but are unlikely to get that much. The U.S. will not start a fight with the Syrian government when it recovers its northeastern land. 

Other Syrians will not forget that the Kurds enabled the U.S. occupation of parts of their land and let Afrin go to the Turks instead of handing it to the Syrian government. The YPG/PKK Kurds are useful for Syria to threaten Turkey but that's about it.

Russia initiated talks with the German and French governments about the return of refugees to Syria and financial help for Syria's recovery from the war. As a first tranche of its atonement fee France sent a planeload of medical supplies to Damascus. More such gestures will follow.

[END REPORT]

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Southwestern Syria liberated

"Earlier, Syrian President Bashar Assad officially announced that the province of Idlib will be among the main targets in the upcoming operations of government troops."

August 1 war report, SouthFront

[see website for video version of report]

On July 31, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies established full control of southwestern Syria after government troops eliminated ISIS in the villages of Beit Irah, Qusayr and Kowaya thus liberating the entire Yarmouk Valley.

According to pro-government sources, about 100 ISIS members surrendered to government troops in the final stage of the operation. Some sources say that about 25 of them were executed by locals and ex-members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) that were participating in the SAA operation. However, these reports still have to be confirmed.

The total death toll of ISIS during the battle for the Yarmouk Valley remains unclear, but according to some local sources, over 1,000 terrorists were killed.

Now, the SAA will have to focus on employing additional security measures in the liberated area in order to prevent terrorist attacks from ISIS cells hiding among civilians.

According to some pro-government sources, some SAA units, which were involved in the southwestern Syria operation, started redeploying from the Yarmouk Valley to eastern al-Suwayda where they will participate in an effort to purge ISIS cells responsible for the recent terrorist attacks there.

Early on August 1, reports appeared that clashes erupted between the SAA and members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nura, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and other militant groups in northern Latakia. The clashes were reportedly accompanied by intense artillery strikes from the Syrian military.

Some pro-government media outlets claimed that this was the start of the long-expected SAA advance in the area, but this is unlikely. The Syrian military command still has to re-deploy its elite units from southwestern Syria to the area if it wants to take any kind of large-scale military actions.

However, at least a limited military operation by the SAA in northern Latakia and southern Idlib has become very likely to take place soon.

During a new round of the Astana-format talks on Syria, which were held in the Russian city of Sochi on July 30-31, Syrian envoy to the UN Bashar Jaafari slammed Turkish actions in the province of Idlib and said that Damascus will kick out Turkish forces from the Syrian territory. The Syrian diplomat emphasized that Turkey is the only country of the guarantor states of the de-escalation agreement [two others: Russia and Iran] that has violated its obligations meaning that Ankara has contributed no efforts to combat Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in the province.

Earlier, Syrian President Bashar Assad officially announced that the province of Idlib will be among the main targets in the upcoming operations of government troops.

[END REPORT]

Kurdish militias in Syria seem to have had enough turkey

See also: Kurds Hand over Key Hospital to Syrian Gov't Forces in Raqqa Province; 8/1, FARS: "It added that the executive council of the SDF has also informed Damascus that the US intends to withdraw its forces and evacuate its military bases from the Syrian territories." [Pundita comment: I'll believe it when I see it.]

Senior Kurdish Commander: Kurds Most Likely to Cooperate with Damascus to Retake Turkey-Occupied Lands

August 1, 2018

FARS

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Kurdish militias are most likely to strike an agreement with Damascus to cooperate in retaking Syria's Northern territories occupied by Turkey, a senior Kurdish commander underlined.

The Arabic-language al-Quds al-Arabi quoted Salih Muslim, the former head of Syria's Democratic Party, as saying that negotiations with the Syrian government will most likely lead to joint military cooperation to take back Northern Syrian regions occupied by Ankara and its allied militants.

He stressed the necessity for the liberation of all Syrian territories, and said if an agreement is made, the Kurdish forces will participate in the army's efforts to free occupied lands, including Afrin and Idlib.

Muslim said that the Kurds have not held talks with Washington for negotiations with the Syrian government, as Kurds believe that they need to make political decisions independently.

He also said that the future of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), their weapons and oil are issued that could go under negotiation with the Syrian government, and added that nearly 70,000 Kurdish forces should be merged in the Syrian defense units.

Reports said last week that the Syrian Kurds had underlined preparedness to cooperate with the army in fighting terrorism as talks between them and Damascus are underway to deliver control of the occupied regions to the government.

Riad Darar, the Arab co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council (the SDF’s political wing), was quoted as saying by the Arabic-language al-Mayadeen news channel on Saturday that the SDF will cooperate with the Syrian army in any military operations against the terrorists.

He added that the ultimatum by the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has persuaded the SDF to go for an agreement with the Damascus government.

Syrian Democratic Council declared in a statement that it has reached an agreement with the Syrian government on the formation of committees to continue negotiations until the end of war.

A preliminary agreement was made between the US-backed SDF and the Syrian government on transferring control of different parts of the country to Damascus and withdrawal of the US forces from Syria, media reports said on Saturday.

[END REPORT]

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More clashes between U.S.-backed SDF and Raqqa residents

"In the meantime, Abu Doham, an SDF commander, and his aide were killed after unknown gunmen opened fire at them near the village of al-Akarishi in Eastern Raqqa."

Tensions Rising between Civilians, US-Backed Militias in Northeastern Syria

August 1, 2018

FARS

TEHRAN (FNA)- A fresh round of clashes was reported on Wednesday between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and civilians in Raqqa city.

A number of civilians engaged in heavy fighting with the SDF in Baq al-Rashid district in Raqqa city, leaving a number of people and gunmen injured.

The SDF has put its militants on alert following the clashes.

In the meantime, the SDF seized people's shops in al-Sina'ah and al-Hadid streets in Raqqa city, claiming that the shops once belonged to the ISIL.

On Tuesday, the SDF occupied residential units of over twenty civilians in Raqqa city amid intensified tensions between the SDF and people in Northeastern Syria.

The SDF seized 24 residential units in the Youth District in Raqqa city, preventing the owners from returning home.

The SDF occupied the units under the pretext of security concerns, claiming that the units were located in a security zone that was home to the SDF's military, media and security centers.

In the meantime, Abu Doham, an SDF commander, and his aide were killed after unknown gunmen opened fire at them near the village of al-Akarishi in Eastern Raqqa.

Attacks on SDF have gone high in recent weeks as tensions between the US-backed militia and people have intensified.

[END REPORT]

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Idlib uh, moderate rebels paying for long holidays in Turkey or Europe

Terrorists Preparing to Escape from Idlib Ahead of Syrian Army Operation

August 1, 2018

FARS 

TEHRAN (FNA)- Terrorists have been deeply affected by the possible consequences of the Syrian Army's imminent operation in Idlib, trying to find safe ways to escape the province, field sources reported on Wednesday.

The sources said that the Turkish Army has deployed forces along the border with Syria as the Damascus forces are preparing for an imminent operation in the Northwestern part of the country.

The sources went on to say that the terrorists are deeply concerned about "the government forces' upcoming operation and Turkish forces' betrayal", and are paying a hefty amount of money to leave Idlib for Turkey and European states before the army starts the operation.

The sources said that the army has dispatched several convoys, including a large number of forces and equipment, to the contact lines with the Ankara-backed terrorists in Idlib, Hama, Lattakia and Aleppo provinces.

The army will soon forward more troops from the Southern part of the country to the North in preparation for the operation in Idlib.

Earlier today, President Bashar Assad hailed the achievements of Syrian Armed Forces on the battlefield against foreign-backed militant groups, saying final victory over terrorism is close thanks to their sacrifices.

He made the remarks in a speech published by the Jeish al-Sha’ab (People's Army) magazine on Wednesday in commemoration of the 73rd anniversary of the founding of the national Syrian military.

Assad congratulated Syrian soldiers for “moving from one achievement to another and from one victory to another in the face of the systematic terrorism and its regional and international backers”.

The army, he stated, has managed to foil the “Zionist-American” plot against Syria by liberating most of the country from the grip of terrorists, and thus should be regarded as an example of nationalism and sacrifice.

“Our heroic armed forces, you have proven to the whole world over the past seven years that you are an integrated example to follow in nationalism and sacrifice and that you are the fortresses in the face of terrorism,” Assad said.

The Syrian army’s sacrifices led to the restoration of security and stability to most areas and undermined the Zionist-American plot against the country’s sovereignty, he pointed out.

The Syrian president further noted that locals are now returning to the liberated areas, vowing that “victory will be achieved soon.”

“They (the terrorists) were ultimately forced to leave --- humiliated, rolled back, their tails between their legs --- after you gave them a taste of bitter defeat,” he added.

In recent weeks, the Syrian army has been trying to wrest control over the Southern provinces of Dara’a and Quneitra, which border the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Takfiri militants have been handing over their heavy weapons to Syrian government forces and leaving the region in negotiated surrender deals.

The full liberation of both Dara’a and Quneitra by Syrian government forces would cut the much-reported collaboration between Israel and anti-Damascus militants operating in the two regions.

Recently, President Assad told Russian media that Damascus' next priority would be retaking the Northwestern Idlib Province, which is mostly held by terrorists.

“Now Idlib is our goal, but not just Idlib,” he said, adding that “there are of course territories in the eastern part of Syria that are controlled by various groups... So we will be moving into all these regions”.

[END REPORT]

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The Deep State

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