AccuWeather president's statement about economic impact of California wildfires

The number of confirmed dead from the Camp fire in California's north has risen to 48 in the last few hours, with 3 confirmed dead in Southern California. Fires are still burning in the north and south, with the current worst threat from the Woolsey fires burning in Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Now to the economics of the wildfires, then on to the weather forecast.

From AccuWeather, 3:10 PM ET today:

Dr. Joel N. Myers, founder and president of AccuWeather, said, “This is a serious humanitarian as well as economic disaster for the state of California, possibly rivaling the negative impacts of the great earthquakes there. 

"At this point AccuWeather estimates that the total damage and economic impact of the California wildfires has already exceeded $80 billion, and will likely exceed $150 billion. The impact will possibly reach $200 billion by next week based on AccuWeather forecast conditions of strong winds and very little rain combined with very dry grounds and vegetation aggravated by lack of rain and strong [parching] winds.

"If these conditions and the resulting damage persist, at least partially into December, this could well turn out to be one of the costliest weather and climate disasters in the U.S., exceeding the damage caused by major hurricanes such as Katrina, Sandy and Harvey.

"This dramatic economic loss will cause substantial damage to California’s economy with repercussions to its annual budget, potentially resulting ultimately in increased taxes. 

"Deteriorating economic conditions brought on by the negative economic impact of the fires, coming on the heels of last year's [fire-related] losses, will stress the state’s budget, possibly causing the state’s credit to deteriorate which, if it occurs, will result in lower bond ratings and higher interest rates with the snowball effect to greater deficits and more expenses."

From the same report:

8,345 structures destroyed

Over 237,000 acres burned

Includes Camp Fire, Woolsey Fire and Hill Fire [135,00 acres Camp Fire, 97,620 Woolsey Fire, and 4, 531 Hill Fire]

Area burned is larger than each of these U.S. cities 

• New York City
• Chicago
• Denver
• Baltimore
• Washington, D.C.

From an updated Independent report published about an hour ago the estimated number of destroyed structures now stands at 8,800, with surely the bulk of that number from the Camp fire in Paradise. 

The AccWeather forecast from the 3:10 PM report:

Although winds in the vicinity of the Camp Fire [Northern California] are forecast to be significantly less during Thursday and Friday compared to that of early this week, an ongoing breeze will keep the threat for wildfire development and spread elevated in Southern California into Friday.

A major change in the weather pattern that is forecast to bring much-needed moisture [higher humidity] and the potential for rainfall to the state starting this weekend and continuing into next week.

“While there is a chance for some meaningful rainfall next week, it is unlikely that we will see enough precipitation to end the fires across Southern California. There is a somewhat better chance for enough rainfall to diminish the fires in Northern California," Myers said.

Meanwhile, the decrease in winds will make fire behavior less erratic and prevent fires from spreading as rapidly as they have been over the past week, which should give residents facing future evacuations more time to reach safety.

In addition, moisture from the Pacific Ocean should be channeled back into the state early next week, and a storm system is forecast to bring wet weather back to parts of the state by the middle of next week.

The exact track and intensity of the storm system will determine how much of the state receives rain and how much rain falls, respectively.

********

What destroyed Paradise was basically a high wind event. But how, in a heavily forested area?

With reports I'd posted years ago about destruction to California's forests kicking around in the back of my brain, it wasn't long before I began to sense there was something odd about the tragedy in Paradise. Yes, the town was virtually destroyed by wildfire but one pushed along by sustained "howling winds" as AccuWeather put it -- the infamous Diablo winds, called Santa Ana winds farther to California's south. 

But did idiots build Paradise? Else why locate a town on a ridge in a wind tunnel? The answer is that a wind tunnel didn't run through Paradise back in the 1800s. The massive forests in the Sierra Nevada foothills would have braked the Diablo winds back then. Here:

Windbreaks are barriers used to reduce and redirect wind. They usually consist of trees and shrubs but also may be perennial or annual crops and grasses, fences, or other materials. The reduction in wind speed behind a windbreak modifies the environmental conditions or microclimate in this sheltered zone.

-- University of Nebraska, "How Windbreaks Work"

The severe drag-friction over forests absorbs energy and slows down winds.

-- Douglas Sheil, "Forests Versus Hurricanes"

Okay, there were wind driven wildfire in the region but because of the massive forests I don't think these could have been sustained at high velocity. One doesn't have to search more than a minute on the internet to get on the path of learning what happened to those massive forests. Here are three reports out of a large number:

Pot Growers Destroying National Forests (2011, Live Science)

California’s Forests: Where Have All the Big Trees Gone? (2015, National Geographic)

26 Million Trees Died in California Forests in Just One Year(2016, TakePart)

Nobody contests that huge swaths of forest in the Sierra Nevada and other regions in the USA have been destroyed although agreement pretty much ends there, as people line up to argue over reasons for the destruction and what to do about it.  

Some arguments are quite precious. One report says that lack of water caused by climate change contributes to forest destruction in many cases. Take a look at this photo from the Live Science report. Does it look like climate change to you? 

Credit: U.S. Forest Service

That's a California National Guardsmen and volunteers  preparing "some of the 300 miles of irrigation line removed from marijuana-growing gardens to be airlifted out" of the forest after a marijuana grow operation was busted.

You read that right; 300 miles, not 3 or 30. 

Diversion of water, draining streams and creeks dry, and poisoning of water sources had been going on a long time in pot agriculture. But after 2008 these were no longer Mom& Pop pot growers; these were industrial-scale grows in California forests overseen by Mexican drug cartels. They ran the grow sites like a military operation using virtual slave labor from Mexico and Central American countries. As soon as the Forest Service found one grow, a cartel set up in another part of a national forest. As to how much forest they destroyed -- I've never seen a statistic but the destruction was "massive" according to one report I saw in 2012.

If you want to know more about the situation you can start by reading my 2015 post Dope, Deforestation, and Desertification but to cut a long story, although there are several reasons for water droughts and other factors that have led to deforestation in California's north, the punchline is the Diablo winds no longer have a big opponent. This has set up a vicious cycle in which the more strongly the winds blow, the more forests dry out, leading to more deforestation, leading to even less windbreaks, leading to even more drying of the forest and surrounding areas. 

And so it goes in a steadily worsening cycle until an entire microclimate has been radically altered, as happened in northern California -- and surely at points farther south in the state. Take a look at this chart from the Fire Weather Research Laboratory, which shows by month the frequency of the Diablo winds. Notice anything a little startling about the chart?

That's right; the only time the winds die down is during July and August. So why do we keep hearing, every time there's a big wildfire in California, 'This happened during the annual Diablo [or Santa Ana] winds.' Annual? Maybe at one time, but they're a near-constant feature of California weather. And the more those winds blow the drier it gets, and they can turn dank vegetation from heavy rainfall into tinder faster than you can say hiss cat. 

As to what all this has to do with climate change -- well it is climate change, just not the type California's Governor Jerry Brown had in mind when he as much accused the entire human race of contributing to California's killer wildfire seasons. Not to dismiss the idea that excess manmade greenhouse gases are harmful, but I look at it this way: Because the United States can't conquer China and India to make them shut down their coal-fired plants, the idea is to develop offsets. 

There is plenty that Californians can do to improve their microclimates, and it starts with repairing the severely damaged microclimate in the state's north. This is doable; yes, even given much loss of the best windbreaks -- large numbers of big trees. Granted it's not doable without financial pain because man-made windbreaks on a large scale don't come cheap. But it's less pain than living in cities where officials have to pass out smoke masks every time high winds take wildfires on a joyride during a dry season. It's less pain than what happened to the people in Paradise.

Californians among Pundita readers could also study the article by Douglas Sheil that I linked to above. It discusses a model of how the climate works that differs considerably from the one accepted by the majority of climate scientists -- and by Governor Brown.

********

"California fire disaster may worsen as strong winds howl for multiple days" Accuweather this morning

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist

November 12, 2018, 9:12:58 AM EST
AccuWeather

A dangerous situation is unfolding across Southern California as a multi-day Santa Ana wind event threatens to worsen the already deadly and destructive firestorm early this week.

A pattern similar to what led to the rapid spread of the Camp and Woolsey fires late last week has returned.

"Santa Ana winds ramped back up on Sunday and bouts of moderately strong wind gusts are anticipated through at least Tuesday," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg.

"Winds can gust 50-60 mph in wind-prone passes and canyons and 60-70 mph in the mountains," she said. In Southern California, "the strongest winds are anticipated Monday night through Tuesday morning."

While not as strong as early this week, there can be another round of locally gusty Santa Ana winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Farther north, gusts of 30-40 mph can persist around the Camp Fire into Monday evening before firefighters welcome calmer conditions for the rest of the week.

The combination of the strong winds, very little moisture in the air and extremely dry ground from months of drought will create a volatile environment for wildfires to ignite and rapidly expand.

[...]

*********

Paradise residents observed Veterans Day on Sunday: A Tale of the Paradise Fire

On November 8 the Camp wildfire wiped out in a few hours 90 percent of the homes in Paradise, a town of more than 26,000 people, and burned down about half of the rest of the town. So one would think all the residents, most of whom are in evacuation shelters, would forgo the Veterans Day observance just this one November 11. But nope:

Michael Zuccolillo, a town councilman, would not let the fire ruin a town tradition Sunday.

Paradise has been celebrating Veterans Day with the Paradise Parade of Flags since 1999. Typically about 1,100 flags line the Skyway road. But the flags were destroyed when the Elks Lodge burned down.

Zuccolillo went on social media asking for help to celebrate the holiday and about 30 flags were donated. He and others put the flags up Sunday morning along Skyway.

“I decided as a sign of unity and hope that we’d still do the parade of flags,” he said. “It’s a sign of showing some normalcy in a sea of chaos. And just to show the hope that we are going to rebuild.”

 Mr Zuccolillo's home was among those burned down as were the homes of all other town council members. But the town hall itself did survive the inferno.    

********

Camp Fire update; 29 dead 228 missing as blaze continues to grow

"We are bracing for more fatalities."

"Tens of thousands remained evacuated Sunday night."

"The good news Sunday was that the fire had slowed its furious pace overnight amid some gusting winds.

"Containment increased from 25 percent overnight. The cities of Oroville and Chico were on alert over the weekend as the fire briefly made a run toward them, but both had escaped damage as of Sunday night.

"The National Weather Service maintained a “red flag” or fire-spread warning Sunday night through early Monday morning, due to expected wind gusts up to 40 miles per hour. The growth is dry because the area has not had rain for 210 days, the agency said. Winds, though, are expected to die down Monday about 7 a.m."

“The winds will give (firefighters) a break, but no rain in sight,” at least until Thanksgiving, meteorologist Johnnie Powell said.

Fire officials said the primary goal continues to be cutting fire lines around the 111,000-acre blaze."

"She estimated that 90 percent of [Paradise's] houses are gone, and that about half of downtown has been destroyed."

"Paradise Mayor Jody Jones said the fire first ignited houses dotted throughout the town when it was still two miles away, throwing embers far ahead of its advance."

"City officials had an evacuation plan and even had practiced it once during a morning commute, but the plan was based on evacuating residents in sequence, one section of town at a time, Jones said. With the fire hitting all parts of town, the entire community was forced to evacuate at once, and the roads were “overwhelmed.”

11/ 11 - 8:03 am PT Updated 5 hours 6 minutes ago

By RYAN SABALOW, KEVIN VALINE and TONY BIZJAK

The Tribune - San Luis Obispo 

The voracious Camp Fire that ran rampant through Butte County’s hilly towns last week has officially stamped itself as the most merciless in state history, and left forensics experts with a grisly chore in the weeks ahead — finding and identifying those who perished.

Officials reported Sunday night that the death toll has reached 29, making it the deadliest California fire in 85 years. The Camp Fire has also destroyed 6,700 buildings, making it the most destructive blaze in state history measured by loss of structures. Most of the damage and death occurred in the town of Paradise, just east of Chico, which was almost entirely consumed by flames on Thursday.

The death toll, which increased by six on Sunday, equals the death toll from the 1933 Griffith Fire in Los Angeles as the worst mass-casualty wildland fire ever in the state. The Oakland hills Tunnel Fire in 1991 caused 25 deaths.
The fire slowed some on Sunday, but officials said the risk of flaring remains high and winds are once again a threat overnight.

As 4,000-plus firefighters dug battle lines in the hills, hoping to quell the fire’s advance amid windy conditions, ten “mass casualty” search teams from around the state stepped up the grisly task of sifting through razed homes and peering into charred vehicles looking for victims’ remains.

All weekend, officials said they expected more bad news on the body count. “We are bracing for more fatalities,” Office of Emergency Services official Mark Pazin warned.

As of Sunday evening, 228 residents of the hills remain unaccounted for days after the fire first rained embers down on the towns of Paradise, Magalia and Concow, igniting home after home, forcing frantic evacuations on narrow mountain roads. The Butte County Sheriff’s Department has received more than 500 calls about missing persons, said Butte County Sheriff Kory Honea.

A number of those unaccounted for may be in shelters, Honea said.

Honea said search crews are concentrating first in areas that had extensive damage or where authorities have received reports of missing people. The search is complicated by debris, including rows of burned vehicles, left abandoned on roads.

He said in some areas the fire burned so hot that there may be no human remains left, or just pieces of bone. No victim identifications had been formally released as of Sunday evening. Investigators were bringing in DNA testing equipment to help with the task.

Some areas were still burning and unsafe for rescuers to enter Sunday, Honea said. His goal, he said, is to get answers as soon as possible to people who are missing loved ones.

“This is my community,” he said.

Tens of thousands remained evacuated Sunday night, including residents of Paradise, population 27,000, who jammed centers in Chico, Oroville and other areas, or stayed with relatives in the area.
Abandoned cars

Evacuees told tales of receiving warnings via text alerts and rushing to their cars only to find themselves immediately in stalled traffic as thousands tried to escape town on its two main roads. Officials turned both Skyway and Clark Road into one-way routes into the valley, but cars nonetheless backed up for miles.

CAMP FIRE IN BUTTE COUNTY
Red circles on this live-updating map are actively burning areas, as detected by satellite. Orange circles have burned in the past 12 to 24 hours, and yellow circles have burned within the past 48 hours. Yellow areas represent the fire perimeter.
[GRAPHIC - Live Updating Map]

Smoke-filled skies made it appear as though it were midnight. At times, escaping drivers ran a gauntlet of burning trees on both sides of the road.

“It was terrifying,” Paradise resident Kelly Angel said. “There were flames behind us. People were abandoning their cars and running. People were driving erratically because of the flames right behind us.”

She said it took her six hours to reach Skyway from her house, a drive that normally takes no more than eight minutes.

“I thought I was going to die,” Angel said. “I was on the phone with my dad and crying, telling him my car was going to burn up. It was terrifying.”

At Adventist Health Feather River Hospital, workers hurriedly shuttled patients into private vehicles to escape the oncoming flames. At one point, when it appeared the hospital might be consumed, doctors and nurses pushed hospital equipment out to an already scorched helicopter pad as a temporary triage center. The fire surrounded the area, but did not burn the main hospital.

The good news Sunday was that the fire had slowed its furious pace overnight, amid some gusting winds.

Containment increased from 25 percent overnight. The cities of Oroville and Chico were on alert over the weekend as the fire briefly made a run toward them, but both had escaped damage as of Sunday night.

The National Weather Service maintained a “red flag” or fire-spread warning Sunday night through early Monday morning, due to expected wind gusts up to 40 miles per hour. The growth is dry because the area has not had rain for 210 days, the agency said. Winds, though, are expected to die down Monday about 7 a.m.

“The winds will give (firefighters) a break, but no rain in sight,” at least until Thanksgiving, meteorologist Johnnie Powell said.

Fire officials said the primary goal continues to be cutting fire lines around the 111,000-acre blaze.

[...]

*****

That's enough of an update but lots, lots more in the report. The stories coming out of that fire situation are overwhelming. The reporters really did their job. 

********

S. California Woolsey Wildfire Updates as of 9 pm ET

(I'm looking for updates on the Camp wildfire and will publish those in the next post.)

"Powerful Santa Ana winds are forecasted to kick up again later tonight"

"The fire was traveling so fast the California Highway Patrol couldn’t keep up with it."

“Our firefighters have been facing some extreme, tough fire conditions that they’ve said they’ve never seen in their lives.”

One of the conditions, sustained high winds with hurricane-force gusts, has repeatedly grounded water tanker planes used to douse flames over a wide area. And even when the planes can get airborne, the wind scatters the water into sprays that are pretty much useless for fighting big wildfires.

Woolsey Fire smoke plume over Malibu

Getty Images

Firefighters battle Santa Ana winds; 170,000 Los Angeles residents still under evacuation. 

The Woolsey Fire has scorched 83,275 acres and devoured more than 175 structures

By Jenna Chandler
Updated Nov 11, 2018, 5:50pm PST
Los Angeles Curbed

[LA Curbed will continue to update their reporting on the  Woolsey fire. See their website for additional articles and several photos, including the one I've posted above]

As firefighters race to control the Woolsey Fire, mandatory evacuation orders remain in effect for approximately 170,000 Los Angeles County residents, from Malibu to West Hills in the San Fernando Valley.

The Woolsey Fire is still burning in spots on both sides of the 101 freeway. It has torched hillsides and coastline across 83,275 acres of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, and destroyed more than 170 buildings in the beaches, canyons, and Valley. Containment stands at 10 percent.

On Sunday, firefighters extinguished flare-ups and kept a hold on the fire’s perimeter, stopping it from spreading south into communities like Pacific Palisades, said Los Angeles County Fire Chief Daryl Osby. He noted that there were no new reports of homes burning down.

“Today was a better day,” he said.

But, Osby cautioned: “We’re not out of the woods tonight.”

Powerful Santa Ana winds are forecasted to kick up again later tonight, posing a major threat. Wind gusts can easily fan embers and ignite dry brush.

None of the mandatory evacuation orders issued for the Woolsey Fire since Friday have been lifted in LA County, and approximately 57,000 structures in Ventura and Los Angeles counties are still at risk.

The evacuation orders affect multiple communities, including Topanga, where many residents have opted to shelter in place, as well as the entire city of Malibu, which City Councilmember Lou La Monte has said was “hit very, very hard.”

Authorities continue to urge Topanga residents who have remained in their homes to “leave immediately.”

The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department is also warning residents in evacuation zones to resist the urge to return home. Even in areas where flames are no longer active, there are downed power lines and trees, smoldering embers that could reignite, limited to no cell service, and dangerous air quality.

“We ask people: Do not go back to those areas,” says Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department chief John Benedict. “Quite frankly, it’s still not safe.”

(A full, up-to-date list of evacuation areas and evacuation centers is posted at the end of this story.)

The Woolsey Fire has has destroyed 177 structures since blowing south from Ventura County over the 101 freeway into Los Angeles early Friday morning, unleashing a barrage of flames on Malibu and neighboring communities. But assessment teams are still surveying the damage, and that number is expected to increase.

La Monte estimates the blaze has ruined “dozens and dozens of homes” in Malibu alone; it has wreaked havoc on Malibu West, Point Dume, Zuma Canyon, and Malibou Lake.

But the south side of Malibu, as well as Topanga and Pacific Palisades have not burned—and authorities are telling residents of those communities to be prepared to leave.

“We are trying to contain the fires north of those communities,” says Osby. But “if you see smoke coming your way, don’t wait for the evacuation [order] to leave.”

(Woolsey Fire map: See where the wildfire is burning in Ventura, Los Angeles)

The fast-moving Woolsey Fire broke out around 3 p.m. Thursday, near Simi Valley. Shortly before dawn Friday, powerful winds, gusting 40 to 50 mph, drove the flames south across the 101 freeway at Liberty Canyon Road and Chesebro Road in Agoura.

“The fire was burning like a torch or flame thrower across the freeway,” KTLA’s Eric Spillman reported. “There were people on the freeway doing U-turns and driving back the way they came from, in darkness with smoke all the way around them. It was just remarkable.”

“The fire was traveling so fast. The [California Highway Patrol] couldn’t keep up with it. We couldn’t keep up with it,” he said.

At 10 a.m. Friday, the city of Malibu issued a citywide mandatory evacuation order, then released a statement two hours later, saying the “fire is now burning out of control and heading into populated areas of Malibu.” Residents were told to evacuate immediately.

As the blaze ripped south toward the coastline, it created apocalyptic scenes.

Residents used the iconic Pacific Coast Highway to flee toward Santa Monica. Parking lots at Zuma Beach were turned into evacuation zones for llamas and other large animals; striking photos show horses on the sand, smoke billowing over the ocean behind them.

Officials with the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area reported around noon Friday that Western Town at Paramount Ranch, where Westworld was filmed, had burned (though the church is apparently still standing).

Approximately 3,500 students sheltered-in-place overnight at Pepperdine University, and remained there Sunday.

Shortly after 1 a.m. Saturday, the Los Angeles County Coroner reported that it was investigating the deaths of two people on Mulholland Highway in Malibu, an area that burned. The bodies were found “severely burned inside of a stopped vehicle” in a driveway.

Los Angeles County sheriff’s Commander Scott Gage said Sunday that detectives believe the driver “may have become disoriented while evacuating” and was “overcome by fire.”

Malibu Wines, a popular wine tasting spot that hosts “safari tours” of its ranch and vineyard, reports that it “lost a considerable portion” of its barns and facilities, but its employees and most of its animals, including the giraffe Stanley, are safe.

With the 101 closed in both directions from Valley Circle Boulevard to Reyes Adobe Road, authorities had advised residents to use Pacific Coast Highway to evacuate and to avoid canyon roads, all of which remain closed today.

PCH is closed in both directions from the Ventura County line to Sunset Boulevard; northbound it is open from Sunset to the 10.

North of the 101 freeway, flames swept into the Valley community of West Hills late on Friday night, and evacuation centers were set up in Woodland Hills, Pacific Palisades, and Topanga.

In Ventura, one evacuation center, the Thousand Oaks Teen Center, served as a family reunification site earlier this week in the wake of a mass shooting at Borderline Bar and Grill, where 13 people were killed.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service warned Friday morning that the fire could spread rapidly because of gusty winds, low humidity, and “critically dry fuels,” including brush and vegetation.

At multiple points throughout the day Friday, the Los Angeles County Fire Department had to down water-dropping aircraft because of the wind and low visibility, said Osby.

“Our firefighters have been facing some extreme, tough fire conditions that they’ve said they’ve never seen in their lives,” he said.

A red flag warning is in effect through Tuesday, with the strongest winds forecasted to whip through the coast Sunday night and Monday. It’s not just the wind that will complicate the fire fight: Humidity levels are expected to linger in the single digits Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has issued an air quality advisory for the San Fernando Valley, the western San Gabriel Valley, and central Los Angeles County.
List of Evacuations in Los Angeles County
[...]
List of Evacuation Centers and Animal Shelters
[..]

— Associate editor Bianca Barragan, urbanism editor Alissa Walker, and reporter Elijah Chiland contributed to this report.

This story will be updated.

[END REPORT]

California wildfires death toll now 31 but finding incinerated bodies won't be easy UPDATED 2:55 am ET 11/12

From NBC News, 6:01 PM ET:

The remains of six more people were found in the Northern California town of Paradise after the Camp Fire swept through the area, bringing the total number of deaths related to the blaze to 29 and matching the deadliest fire in state history, authorities said Sunday.

The latest fatalities brought the statewide death toll to 31, after the Woolsey Fire in Southern California killed two people.

Butte County Sheriff Kory L. Honea told reporters that five bodies in Paradise were found in homes and one was found in a vehicle.

[...]

From an Associated Press report, More bodies found as officials fight California wildfire published about an hour ago.

[...]

In Northern California, Butte County Sheriff Kory Honea said the county consulted anthropologists from California State University at Chico because, in some cases, investigators have been able to recover only bones and bone fragments.

The devastation was so complete in some neighborhoods that “it’s very difficult to determine whether or not there may be human remains there,” Honea said.

Authorities were also bringing in a DNA lab and encouraged people with missing relatives to submit samples to aid in identifying the dead after the blaze destroyed more than 6,700 buildings, nearly all of them homes.

[...] 

The passages address an aspect of the Camp wildfire that is Grenfell Tower all over again. The Grenfell fire burned so hot on the upper stories of the apartment tower that trapped residents were incinerated -- cremated; there was nothing left of them to I.D., except in some cases bone fragments. The Camp wildfire that tore through Paradise in the north of California burned so hot that the same thing happened in certain cases. 

How many cases? Nobody is trying to guess at this time; all that's known is that there are still about 100 people missing, most if not all from the Camp fire in Paradise. (A local press outlet puts the number at 228 see update below.) 

Authorities have already located about 400 people who went missing during the chaos of frantic evacuations from the town. Cell phone service is still down and roads are impassable in many areas where the Camp wildfire has continued to burn in the north. 

So people who managed to make it out of Paradise and other areas where the Camp fire struck could be scattered throughout shelters or still be taking refuge with strangers across a wide area that's hard for searchers to get to at this point, let alone closely inspect.

UPDATE 
A local press outlet puts the missing (from the Camp fire) at 228 although this number might include people who lived outside Paradise but near the Camp fire zone.  

********

It tolls for thee

"Death toll rises to 23 in California's Camp Fire." The big winds return tomorrow. UPDATED

Update 11/12: 3:35 am ET: The death toll is now 31 -- 29 from the Camp fire, 2 from the Woosley fire -- with the number almost certain to continue rising.  

From a local news source: 110 still missing near Paradise, the town destroyed by the blaze. Authorities have whittled the list of missing from more than 500. Another local press outlet report, updated about 3 hours ago, puts the missing at 228 -- but reports the death toll as 29. Still fog of war situation.

END UPDATES

From CNN, 10:43 PM ET:

"The Camp Fire is the largest of the three major fires, swelling to 105,000 acres by Saturday morning."

"The flames were whipping and spreading so fast," Whitney Vaughan said after fleeing her home in Paradise. "It began to jump the road. There wasn't anywhere to go."

"Winds could gust as high as 30 to 50 mph, depending on elevation, on Sunday, officials said. Much of the state hasn't seen rain in more than a month, according to CNN meteorologists, and the dry vegetation has only served to fuel the fires."

[One Paradise resident clocked some wind gusts on Friday Thursday at 70 mph]

The death toll in the Camp Fire in Northern California has risen to 23 with the discovery Saturday of 14 more sets of remains, Butte County Sheriff and Coroner Kory Honea told reporters.

Honea said 10 of the victims were recovered from the fire-ravaged town of Paradise. He said seven people were found in homes, and three were outside. Of the remaining four, two were in cars and two were in houses in an area known as Concow.

Saturday brought a break in the fierce winds that have whipped the three major wildfires in California that have destroyed a record number of buildings and displaced more than 300,000 people.

But officials know the gusts will be back Sunday and most evacuation orders remain in place.
[...]

Woolsey Fire

More than 200,000 people have fled in Ventura County and in Malibu in Los Angeles County due to the Woolsey Fire, officials said.

Firefighters worked to protect thousands of students and staff sheltering in place Saturday at Pepperdine University as flames started reaching the campus overnight, school officials said.

[...]

The howling Santa Ana winds fueled the Woolsey Fire. These are strong, dry winds that high-pressure systems push from east to west, from the mountains and desert areas down into the Los Angeles area.

Fire officials said the winds had temporarily died down Saturday, giving them a brief opportunity to make progress.

"This is just a lull," Los Angeles County Fire Chief Daryl Osby said, "so we're going to take advantage of that and try to get as much line perimeter in as we can with the expectation that we will get more winds tomorrow."

Another round of Santa Ana winds is forecast to whip the area Sunday through Tuesday, though it may be weaker than Friday's.

[...]

Latest developments

• Burning and growing: The Camp Fire is the largest of the three major fires, swelling to 105,000 acres by Saturday morning, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or Cal Fire. It is the most destructive blaze in the state's modern history. The Woolsey Fire doubled in size overnight, growing to 70,000 acres. The Hill Fire was at 4,500 acres.

[...]

• Massive evacuations: Fire officials estimate the number of people forced from their homes statewide is more than 300,000; in Los Angeles County it is 170,000.

• Containment: Firefighters are struggling to put down the flames. The Camp Fire is 20% contained, while the Woolsey Fire is just 5% contained. The Hill Fire was 25% contained.

• Destruction: In Northern California, nearly 7,000 structures have been destroyed, including 80% to 90% of the homes in Paradise, north of Sacramento, according to officials. In Los Angeles and Ventura counties, a significant number of homes were destroyed or damaged, fire officials said.

[END]

Plenty more in the report, filed by Nicole Chavez, Dakin Andone and Steve Almasy for CNN.  

*****

Americans are doing to themselves what they've done to other peoples

There is now so much conflict between Republicans and Democrats, between vaunted conservatives and progressives, that talk abounds in the U.S. about a brewing 'new' civil war in the country -- an actual war not a metaphorical one. I see nothing strange about this turn of events; Americans are only doing to each other what we've been doing in other countries: foment as much division as possible in the name of social justice. 

Those who'd argue that the American instigations aren't really about social justice, that they're about getting control of a foreign government, are ignoring the psychological outcome of always seeking to exploit differences for any reason. 

The outcome is that we now have a generation of Americans who can't think outside the 'divide and save' mindset. That's only natural because repeated actions always create an entrenched way of thinking. The mindset gets hard to overcome when it spreads throughout a society. And so American politicians, many of whom are old enough to know how to think outside the box of divide and save, have gone along with the tide of a younger generation's thinking. 

One upshot is the prospect of another civil war in the United States. Another prospect would be actual or de-facto balkanization of the United States, which is exactly what Americans have been trying to do to Syria since our instigations in the name of social justice didn't work to get control of Syria's government.

There is a funny aspect to the situation for those always looking for ironies. The Saudi monarchy, which President Trump and his friend Israeli PM Netanyahu want to keep doing business with, isn't terribly fond of the concept of social justice. And so U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been castigating the Iranian ruling class for not being "normal." We just want them to act like normal members of the international community, he explained.

From social justice to normalcy. I wonder if Mr Pompeo has noticed that Americans are always calling each other crazy. Then again, crazy may be the new normal in the USA.

Is there any way at this stage for large numbers of Americans to wake up enough to avert the worst for themselves -- and halt yet more 'divide and save' tactics in other societies? I'll put it this way. If the two men shown in this photo can work together, just about anything is possible for the human race.

Claimants to title of 17th Karmapa: Thaye Dorje (L) and Ogyen Trinley Dorje

Work together is exactly what the two have agreed to do during a meeting in France this October that stunned Buddhists as well as China's government not to mention India's. 

A magazine for Buddhists called Tricycle reported on the first meeting between the two. But there is no way for anyone who is not already very familiar with the background to understand the import of the meeting just from the report. To get Americans in the ballpark, the differences between Trump supporters and the Obama camp are nothing, next to the divide that arose in Vajrayana Buddhism over which of two men is the 'real' Karmapa.

So while it's late in the day for Americans to work to shake off a habitual pattern of thought, late is always better than never.

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S. California: Woolsey fire doubles in size, gusty winds to pick up again tonight

Southern California:

Evacuations remain for Malibu, two found dead as Woolsey Fire doubles in size in Southern California; November 10, 2018, 3:16:27 PM EST, Accuweather:

Two people were found dead and more than 200,000 residents, including those in Malibu, remain under mandatory evacuation as the Woolsey and Hill fires rage in Southern California.
The Hill Fire has charred more than 4,500 acres with 25 percent containment as of Saturday morning. The fire is burning in the same area as the Springs Fire from 2013, according to the Ventura County Fire Department.
The second blaze, the Woolsey Fire, flared up south of Simi Valley on Thursday afternoon and rapidly spread on Thursday night. It has since burned 70,000 acres and is zero percent contained.
The two blazes have destroyed more than 150 homes.
Two people have been found dead in the fire zone, according to the Associated Press. Sheriff detectives are investigating the deaths.
The recent lull in gusty winds that helped firefighters at the start of the weekend will end on Saturday night.

[...]

Northern California:

Camp Fire burns over 6,400 structures, becomes most destructive fire in California history; November 10, 2018, 3:19:19 EST, Accuweather

A wind-driven wildfire continues to threaten communities and prompt evacuations after consuming nearly the entire town of Paradise.
The Camp Fire ignited around 6:30 a.m. local time Thursday and has burned 100,000 acres and is 20 percent contained.
As of Saturday morning, the number of structures destroyed was revised to 6,453. That makes it the most destructive individual fire in California history. Previously, the most destructive fire was the Tubbs fire which destroyed 5,636 structures in October of 2017.
Nine fatalities have been confirmed by officials, according to the Associated Press (AP). Three firefighters have also been injured during containment efforts.

[...]

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Electricity or wildfire. Californians' stark choice during extreme fire weather

I'm not sure that the choice for PG&E is between safety and profits, as an attorney framed it. If the company routinely shuts off power during 'red alert' days I think a great many people in the affected areas will protest that they have a vital need for the electricity -- unless the company can pinpoint the outages to nonresidential areas, which I don't see how they can do.  An option might be to bury the power lines. But that would be very expensive, and the cost would be passed along to customers.     

PG&E: Transmission Line Issue Happened Near Origin Of Camp Fire

November 9, 2018 - 4:35 PM ET

The Associated Press via KPIX5 CBS TV San Francisco/Bay Area

BUTTE COUNTY, Calif. (AP) — PG&E officials on Friday said the utility experienced a problem on a transmission line minutes before the massive Camp Fire in Butte County erupted. An electric safety incident was reported by PG&E at about 6:15 a.m. Thursday near Pulga Road in Butte County, near where the Camp Fire started. In their summary of the incident PG&E states 'PG&E experienced an outage on the Caribou-Palermo 115 kV transmission line in Butte County.'

That afternoon PG&E technicians on aerial patrol observed damage to a transmission tower on the same transmission line, approximately one mile northeast of the community of Pulga in the area of the Camp Fire.

PG&E officials noted in the report that the information is preliminary.

The utility been blamed for some of the Wine Country wildfires of October 2017 that destroyed hundreds of homes, forced the evacuation of 90,000 North Bay residents and left more than 40 people dead.

Last June the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection report determined that PG&E power lines and equipment failures were to blame for 12 of the catastrophic wildfires.[1]

PG&E has since implemented a new policy that will cut electricity to certain areas during extreme fire weather conditions.

“If their lines are involved and there’s a repeat pattern of failure to engage in risk management, then those people should go to jail,” said Frank Pitre, an attorney who has represented fire victims from San Bruno to Santa Rosa in suits against PG&E.

Speaking with KPIX 5’s Joe Vazquez, Pitre said he doesn’t understand why the utility company failed to follow through with its plan for preemptive power outages.

“To do things like shutting off power in the face of known high danger of winds and high risk of a fire … that’s courage. That’s leadership. And that’s when you put safety first above profits,” Pitre said.

The Camp Fire has killed at least nine people and destroyed thousands of homes. Paradise is 180 miles northeast of San Francisco.

[END REPORT]

1) From the report:  

Cal Fire said the 12 fires involving PG&E equipment were:
Redwood Fire, Mendocino County – tree or parts of trees falling onto PG&E power lines
Sulphur Fire, Lake County – power pole failure; power lines and equipment coming in contact with the ground
Cherokee Fire, Butte County – tree limbs coming into contact with PG&E power lines
37 Fire, Sonoma County – electrical; associated with the PG&E distribution lines in area
Blue Fire, Humboldt County – power line conductor separates from connector, falling to ground
Norrbom Fire, Sonoma, Napa Counties – tree falling onto power lines
Adobe Fire, Sonoma, Napa Counties – tree falling onto power line
Patrick Fire, Sonoma, Napa Counties – tree falling onto power line
Pythian Fire, Sonoma, Napa Counties – downed powerline
Nuns Fire, Sonoma, Napa Counties – part of tree breaking, contacting power line
Pocket Fire, Sonoma County – part of tree breaking, contacting power line
Atlas Fire – Napa County – large tree limb, tree falling onto power line in separate locations

The report has lots more information but it looks to me as if all but one of the incidents could have been due to wind events, which can be at hurricane or near-hurricane force during the annual 'Diablo' or Santa Ana winds. Add bone dry vegetation, a spark from a transmission line, and presto! catastrophic wildfire. 

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Paradise is gone

Just like that. A town of close to 30,000 people, pretty much destroyed by a wildfire within a few hours. From Accuweather, report last updated 3:39 AM Eastern Time: 

A wind-driven wildfire continues to threaten communities and prompt evacuations after consuming nearly the entire town of Paradise.

The Camp Fire ignited around 6:30 a.m. local time Thursday and has burned over 20,000 acres and is zero percent contained.

On Thursday afternoon, a state of emergency was declared in Butte County in response to the growing Camp Fire.

An evacuation order was issued for all of Paradise, home to over 27,000 people, where many had only minutes to flee the rapidly spreading blaze.

“Pretty much the community of Paradise is destroyed, it’s that kind of devastation,” Cal Fire Capt. Scott McLean said via the Associated Press (AP). “The wind that was predicted came and just wiped it out.”

As the Camp Fire continues to grow, evacuation orders have expanded into the city of Chico, California, where over 93,000 people live. An evacuation warning is in effect for areas south of Highway 32 and east of Bruce Road inside the city limits, according to the Chico Police Department.

[...]

The report continues with much detail. See also updated reports from local press Redding Record Searchlight.  

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Hondurans to US: We wish to invade your country but we'll need transport to get there

No wonder the 'migrants' can't get anything done in their own country. And few are actually in desperate straits because only a few have accepted repeated offers of asylum -- and jobs -- from Mexico's government.
Central American migrants in Mexico want demand buses to US border

By MARIA VERZA AND CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN

November 8, 2018 - 4:39 PM ET

The Associated Press via AOL

"The Mexican government has said most of the migrants have refused offers to stay in Mexico"

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Central American migrants in a caravan that has stopped in Mexico City demanded buses Thursday to take them to the U.S. border, saying it is too cold and dangerous to continue walking and hitchhiking.

Mexico City authorities say that of the 4,841 registered migrants receiving shelter in a sports complex, 1,726 are under the age of 18, including 310 children under five.

"We need buses to continue travelling," said Milton Benitez, a caravan coordinator. Benitez noted that It would be colder in northern Mexico and it wasn't safe for the migrants to continue along highways, where drug cartels frequently operate.

He said the route and departure time would be decided at a meeting Thursday night.

The Mexican government has said most of the migrants have refused offers to stay in Mexico, and only a small number have agreed to return to their home countries. About 85 percent of the migrants are from Honduras, while others are from the Central American countries of Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua.

"California is the longest route but is the best border, while Texas is the closest but the worst" border, said Jose Luis Fuentes of the National Lawyers Guild to gathered migrants.

[...]

*****

Enough. You can read the rest of the report at AOL, if you have the stomach for it, but the rest of the story boils down to 'activists' pushing the 'migrants' along.  

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