Christmas in Damascus

Photo via ZOKA 

Russia's President Vladimir Putin made a surprise visit to Damascus to celebrate the Orthodox Christmas with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, and to get in a little discussion about defense matters. Assad and Putin visited the Umayyad Mosque and viewed the head of St. John the Baptist that is preserved by the mosque. Putin presented the mosque with a rare 17th Century edition of the Koran. Then it was on to the oldest Orthodox church in Syria, the Mariamite Cathedral, built during the second century. Putin gifted the church with an icon of the Virgin Mary painted in Russia.

Well, was it all worth it, to spend year after year watching the Syrian War from afar, and unable to do anything except pray and root for the Syrian Army and its supporting militias?  After all, I'd never visited Syria and never met a Syrian, and knew virtually nothing about the country and its history until I started following the war. These people were strangers to me.   

I grew old watching the Syrian War and I was often filled with despair by the course of the war and its unending horrors. But I never allowed myself to cry. Last night I watched the following video that featured part of a concert by Lebanese music artist Abeer Nehme singing Christmas songs with thousands of Syrians singing along. 

Strangers no more, I realized. Then, finally, the tears came, tears of happiness. Yes, yes, a thousand times, I do not regret a moment.

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Iran missile strikes on US bases: Trump: All is well. Iran: We killed 80. UPDATED

sigh.  I'm not the Associated Press, you know. I'm not going to sit up all night watching this propaganda ping pong match.  

Here; you can read about the claim and counterclaim at one of Sputnik's Live Updates pages. 

As for FM Zarif's claim that Iran's "reprisal" missile attacks are in compliance with the UN Charter -- somehow I don't think the U.S. would agree. Anyhow, here's his argument, as posted at FARs, which I think addresses only one base. The Iranians have hit three so far. 

UPDATE -- the reports today are that they hit one base, and U.S. facilities at or near an airport in Erbil. As to reports of a third site, the name of which I can't remember at the moment -- no mention of it today.

********* 

Fresh updates at Sputnik on Iran-U.S. crisis

U.https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202001081077971856-live-updates-iran-launches-missile-strike-on-us-forces-in-iraq/

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"Trump’s rationales for the Soleimani killing are falling apart" Washington Post

By Paul Waldman
Opinion Writer, The Washington Post
January 7, 2020 - 12:41 pm EST

"The assassination is also a clear acknowledgement that the administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign, which included crippling the Iranian economy, has been a complete failure."

If I asked you, “Why did the United States assassinate Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani?”, you’d probably have some trouble answering, given the multiple explanations the Trump administration has offered. Now here’s a tougher one: What is the administration’s objective with regard to Iran?

Once you begin to contemplate the second question, the incoherent and unpersuasive answers Trump and his defenders have given to the first question become even more alarming.

So as we try to determine whether we’ve been set on a course toward another disastrous war, it’s worth unpacking what the administration is saying. Let’s run down the rationales the administration has offered for the killing:

We killed Soleimani to stop an “imminent” threat. This is the most frequently repeated justification we’ve heard: Soleimani was planning imminent attacks on Americans, so it was urgent that we stop him. Officials say they have intelligence that would prove this assertion, though they refuse to release it publicly.

Yet some administration officials have told reporters that the evidence of an “imminent” attack amounted to nothing more than Soleimani going about his usual business.

The idea is also belied by the fact that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the most important advocate of military action against Iran, had reportedly been pressing Trump to assassinate Soleimani for months. If that’s the case, then it can’t be that the need to take him out suddenly emerged at the end of last week.

But even if what the administration says were true, it still makes zero sense as a justification for the killing. It isn’t as though Soleimani was a suicide bomber we intercepted before he could get to the train station, thereby averting a disaster. He was a general with thousands of people in his employ. Whatever operations he might have been planning can go right ahead without him.

We killed Soleimani to deter future attacks. In this formulation, it wasn’t so much that we stopped anything from happening now but that we’ll show how strong we are and make Iran afraid. “This strike was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans,” said Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper. Which it might do in the long term, but it certainly won’t in the short term. Quite the opposite: Iran now feels that it has to retaliate, and then we’ll retaliate, and on and on.

Furthermore, assassinating foreign officials as a means of deterrence is not only a violation of American and international law, but it’s also an utterly immoral and borderline insane way to conduct deterrence. Put aside for a moment what you might think about Soleimani and imagine if we made this an operating principle of our military policy. There are many countries whose future bad behavior we’d like to deter. Are we now going to assassinate the defense ministers of North Korea and Russia and China as well?

We killed Soleimani for revenge. Administration sources have also cited the death of an American contractor in a rocket attack on a base in Iraq two weeks ago, an attack attributed to militias allied with Iran, as a justification. But again, the fact that Soleimani was the architect of Iranian policies that included support for such militias doesn’t mean that once he is dead, that support will cease. His successor will presumably continue the same policies.

We killed Soleimani because of 9/11. This, the dumbest of all justifications, was offered by Vice President Mike Pence. No more needs to be said.

We killed Soleimani because he was a bad guy. This justification at least has the benefit of having a connection to something true. Soleimani was indeed a bad guy. [Pundita note: Many would dispute that.] 

But the world is full of government officials who are bad guys. How many of them do we intend to assassinate? And how is that likely to ensure that only good guys take their place?

The fact that administration officials have offered this shifting collection of lame and unpersuasive rationales suggests that they themselves aren’t really sure why they did it, other than the fact that it was what Trump decided one day. Indeed, one report after another describes the decision catching officials by surprise. As The Post put it, some were “stunned by his decision, which could lead to war with one of America’s oldest adversaries in the Middle East.”

The assassination is also a clear acknowledgement that the administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign, which included crippling the Iranian economy, has been a complete failure. It was supposed to make Iran compliant, sending Iranians crawling to the negotiating table where they’d beg for mercy and give us anything we wanted. Instead, the administration is saying, Iran is more dangerous than ever, which is why we have to start killing the country’s top officials. Maybe that’ll work.

That brings us, finally, to the more fundamental question: What is the Trump administration trying to accomplish with regard to Iran? What is the end state at which officials hope to arrive? Do they want to topple the regime? Defang it and eliminate its political influence in the region? Make it so weak that it can’t threaten our own position in the Middle East? Something else?

Your guess is as good as mine. And as good as the president’s and that of those who work for him, who seem to have no idea what they’re doing or why they’re doing it. Which is not exactly a recipe for success.

[END]

Read more [WaPo Editorials]:

Jennifer Rubin: Mike Pompeo is now lying about his lies

Jason Rezaian: Trump’s threats against cultural sites show he couldn’t care less about the Iranian people

Katrina vanden Heuvel: The 2010s were a decade of imperial overreach 

[...]

*********

NATO Iraq drawdown in wake of Soleimani assassination

Some NATO troops are leaving Iraq.
January 7, 2020
The New York Times

NATO is removing some of the trainers who have been working with Iraqi soldiers battling the Islamic State, in the wake of the American killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani. NATO has had roughly 500 soldiers doing the training.

On Monday, the NATO secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, announced that training had been temporarily suspended.

Describing security of NATO personnel, the organization said in a statement that it would be taking precautions — including “the temporary repositioning of some personnel to different locations both inside and outside Iraq.’’

NATO “maintains a presence in Iraq’’ and remains committed “to fighting international terrorism,” an official said, but refused to provide “operational details’’ about troop movements.

Some NATO countries, like Canada, Germany and Croatia, have announced that they are moving troops out of Iraq altogether, at least temporarily, because of security concerns.

Canada is temporarily moving to Kuwait some of its 500 military personnel based in Iraq, the country’s top military official, Gen. Jonathan Vance, said in a letter posted on Twitter on Tuesday.

Thirty of the 120 German soldiers in Iraq will be sent to Jordan and Kuwait, while others will remain positioned in the less volatile Kurdistan region, the German defense and foreign ministries said in a joint letter to the German parliament, the Bundestag.

“When the training is able to resume, the military personnel can be reinstated,” the letter said.

Croatia has also moved its small contingent of soldiers — 14 — from Iraq, with seven bound for Kuwait and the rest headed home, the Croatian Defense Ministry said. Slovakia has also removed its seven soldiers.

Some NATO troops began leaving Baghdad’s Green Zone in helicopters Monday night. The NATO training mission began in 2018 at Iraq’s request.

[END REPORT]

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Trump pretended to support Soleimani's peace mission.Then he killed him.

"IRAQI PRIME MINISTER: SOLEIMANI ARRIVED IN BAGHDAD TO RECEIVE DE-ESCALATION PROPOSAL FROM SAUDI ARABIA. TRUMP SUPPORTED INITIATIVE"
January 5, 2020
SouthFront

On January 5, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi reportedly provided additional details into the US assassination of the commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Qods Force, Qassem Soleimani. 

According to the available data, the Iranian commander arrived in Baghdad under an official request from Iraq. He was set to receive de-escalation proposals that Saudi Arabia sent to Iran via Iraq. US President Donald Trump allegedly supported this idea during a phone call with the Iraqi Prime Minister. 

Therefore, the US supposedly used this initiative to set a trap for the Iranian military commander and assassinate him.

[...]

If these developments are confirmed, this will be another indication of the destructive behavior of the modern United States. Washington has been violating international laws and breaking deals that it signs on a regular basis. Now, any negotiations that involve or linked with the United States also may pose a [mortal] threat to representatives of the parties involved.

[END REPORT]

The developments are already confirmed, unless one is waiting for the U.S. government to confirm what Abdul-Mahdi said.

From the 1/6 Grayzone Project report: "Abdul-Mahdi said that Trump personally thanked him for the efforts, even as he was planning the hit on Soleimani – thus creating the impression that the Iranian general was safe to travel to Baghdad."

For information about the photograph of devil's horns (in the Persian Gulf), see this report from The (U.K.) Sun.

*********

Devil Horns Fanta Morgana in Persian Gulf

Talk about an omen:

DAWN OF EVIL 

Incredible ‘red devil horns’ sunrise photos captured during rare solar eclipse mirage over the Persian Gulf

• By Alahna Kindred

• 8 Jan 2020, 0:57
• Updated: 8 Jan 2020, 1:42
• • The (U.K.) Sun

THESE incredible images appear to show giant devil horns rising over the Persian Gulf during a solar eclipse.

A photographer waited in just the right place to snap the rare spectacle as the sun was partially blocked by the moon at dawn.

Elias Chasiotis had planned on capturing the solar eclipse on December 26 while on holiday in Al Wakrah, Qatar.

And he knew because it came at sunrise he had a chance to capture an even rarer phenomenon - a solar eclipse combined with the light-bending mirage effects seen near the surface of the ocean.

He told BoredPanda: "I hoped that optical effects like inferior mirage would be visible and I was lucky enough to capture them."

This type of mirage over the ocean is called Fata Morgana and occurs when rays of light are bent when they pass through air layers of different temperatures.

It is named after the Arthurian sorceress Morgan le Fay because it was once believed the mirages they were fairy castle created by her witchcraft to lure sailors to their death.

Elias added: "I was worried that nothing would come out of the eclipse.

"However, when the sun finally began to rise, it looked like two separate pieces, some sort of red horns piercing the sea."

[END REPORT - See The Sun website for more photos of the extraordinary event]

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"Second Wave of Missile Attacks Fired Against US Targets in Iraq - Iranian Media

"Operation Martyr Soleimani" launches

See this Sputnik report for news and updates on the first wave of the attack.

Sputnik
03:31 08.01.2020(updated 04:02 08.01.2020)

A second series of rockets have been launched toward US targets in Iraq, shortly after dozens of missiles struck US military facilities in the area earlier Wednesday morning local time, according to Iranian media reports.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) has once again warned allies in the US against getting involved in their operation - dubbed "Martyr Soleimani" - and have threatened possible retaliation, according to Tehran-based Tasnim News Agency. 

Around five rockets have struck Camp Taji - a US coalition base located 27 kilometers north of Baghdad, Iraq - according to a military source cited by VOA News' Carla Babb.

A military source from Tehran told Sputnik that Iranian military jets are airborne and currently flying in border areas as the operation takes place. 

Earlier Wednesday morning, approximately 35 missiles were launched and struck US targets in Erbil, Iraq and the country's Ayn al-Asad Air Base, which houses US military forces. 

[END REPORT]

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Live Updates: Iran Launches Ballistic Missile Volleys at US Forces in Iraq

Asad air based in Anbar Province, in western Iraq, last month. It was the site of a missile attack by Iran, the Pentagon said.Credit...Nasser Nasser/Associated Press via The New York Times

From The NYT, report updated 5 minutes ago: 

Hossein Soleimani, the editor in chief of Mashregh, the main Revolutionary Guards news website, said that more than 30 ballistic missiles had been fired at the American base at Asad, in Anbar Province, in western Iraq. An American base in Erbil, in northern Iraq, was also attacked. ..."

No casualties reported by the Times, but a Sputnik update  below mentions unknown an unspecified number of casualties among Iraqis at the Asad base.

Sputnik
03:59 08.01.2020 (updated 04:27 08.01.2020)

On Wednesday morning, approximately 35 missiles were launched by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) striking US targets in Erbil, Iraq and the country's Ayn al-Asad Air Base, which houses US military forces. 

Later, a second series of rockets was launched toward US targets in Iraq, according to Iranian media reports. According to a military source cited by VOA News' Carla Babb, around five rockets have struck Camp Taji - a US coalition base located 27 kilometres north of Baghdad.

Iranian Press TV said IRGC had warned that US regional allies would be attacked if their territories and bases are used by the United States to launch attacks against Iran.

Last week, Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike ordered by US President Donald Trump at the Baghdad International Airport, with his assassination dramatically escalating tensions in the Middle East. In response, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani swore that Tehran would avenge his death.

SPUTNIK UPDATES

• 04:43

  US Federal Aviation Authority Bans Flights Over Persian Gulf Due to Heightened Military Activities

  "Certain flights… are prohibited from operating in the overwater airspace above the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman due to heightened military activities," the FAA said in a notice on Tuesday.
• 04:42

  Ministers Leave White House as Their Talks With Trump Are Over - CNN

• 04:40

  Trump Will Not Deliver Address to Nation on Tuesday Night - CNN

• 04:31

  Israel's Air Force, Air Defence on High Alert Amid the Attacks - Al Arabiya

• • 04:27

    Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei Arrives at Iranian Operations HQ to Track the Attacks - Reports

    Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has arrived at the Iranian operations headquarters to coordinate attacks on US facilities in Iraq, MSNBC reports citing Iranian State TV.
  • 04:10

    US Forces in Syria on High Alert, Moving to Base Close to Iraqi Border - Reports

    US Forces in eastern Syrian Deir ez-Zur province are on high alert and started moving to the military base close to the Iraqi border, following the attack, state-run Syria TV reported.

    Syria TV also said that they received information regarding the beginning of an evacuation of US forces from the Al-Omar oil field and the Conoco gas field. US troops are on their way to the military base near Ash Shaddadi town in Hasakah province.
  • • 04:03

      Preparations Underway for Trump to Possibly Address Nation From Oval Office - Reports

      Preparations are underway for US President Donald Trump to address the American people from the Oval Office, CNN reported.
    • 04:02

      Pompeo, Esper Arrive at White House in the Wake of the Attack - Reports

      US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary Mark Esper arrived at the White House in the wake of a missile attack on American forces in Iraq, CNN reported.
    • 04:00

      Casualties Among Iraqis Following the Attack - Reports

      There are casualties among the Iraqis after the Iranian attack on the US Ain Al Asad Airbase in western Iraq, CNN reported on Wednesday, citing a security source.

      No further information is provided on the number of casualties or were the victims killed or wounded.

[END REPORT]

Massive anti-US protests in India's capital to response to Soleimani's murder

Photos: RISHIKESH KUMAR/Sputnik

See the Sputnik report for video footage of the protests. 

Security forces stopped the throngs before they reached the U.S. embassy in New Delhi, but one report is that the embassy was shut as a precaution. Here's the India Today report, posted today at 16:09 IST: 

Red flag anti-US march in Delhi demands revenge for Qassem Soleimani killing

A massive anti-US march was carried out Tuesday in New Delhi in protest of the killing of top Iranian commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike in Baghdad, Iraq.

The plan was for the protest march to end outside the US Embassy, but it was stopped halfway by the authorities for security reasons.

The protests were led by prominent Shia cleric Maulana Kalbe Jawad Naqvi, and Mehmood Pracha.

One of the protesters explained the significance of the red flag.

"In ancient times, when tribes would go to war and the leader of one of the tribes was killed then that tribe would raise a red flag declaring war against the killers of their chief. This red flag signifies our demand for revenge against America," he said.

Earlier, the American Embassy issued a demonstration alert’ for its citizens to stay away from the embassy area for their own safety.
[...]
The killing of Qassem Soleimani has evoked protests and demonstrations against the US across the globe, particularly in countries with Shia populations.

With India having a substantial number of Shia community members as its citizens, the MEA is looking at the sensitivity of the increasing tensions between the US and Iran.

This also comes at a time when Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is due to visit India for the Raisina Dialogue, where he is likely to take the stage and the opportunity to hit out at America. [The dialogue, held from January 14-16, will be attended by foreign ministers from around the world.]

He will also have a separate bilateral meeting with his Indian counterpart, S Jaishankar.

IRAN-US TENSIONS | 'India must reach out to various regional players to ensure restraint'

[END REPORT]

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Unlikely Soleimani was plotting violence against US. Why then was he killed?

The intel that Qassem Soleimani was plotting violence against the U.S. was "razor thin" according to one well-placed American analyst, and everything known about Soleimani's recent actions suggests that he counseled negotiations with the U.S. government.  

I think there was more than one reason that the American president ordered his assassination. But I believe the chief reason is one that isn't spoken about, at least not in public. I believe the president had Soleimani killed chiefly to send a message to all governments that were getting on better terms with Tehran. Such governments, in President Trump's view, were openly defying his authority in international relations, and in doing so were giving clear signs they were wandering off the American reservation while on his watch. 

The list of offenders is quite long; it includes the most powerful European governments, Gulf Sunni Arab ones, and India. Not to mention China and Russia openly flaunting their relationship with Iran with their recent joint naval drills, and Iraq's government often siding with Iran against the U.S.  

Something had to be done to emphasize to all concerned that those who stood against the United States would regret it. Openly murdering Iran's greatest hero was one way to send the message, if one thinks like Mr Trump, who strikes me as obsessed with maintaining face.

As to whether I agree with Elijah Magnier's analysis, which is that fragmentation in the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' led to Soleimani's death -- well, I am in no position to disagree with any single part of his analysis; he is very knowledgeable about the politics of the Levant and Iran, and has good sources. But I would enjoin him to look at the picture from Washington's viewpoint. In any case, I recommend his report because it provides insights on how Soleimani thought.

I also recommend the parts of Bernhard's  January 6 essay for Moon of Alabama where he corrects the record:

[...]

In their descriptions of Qassem Soleimani U.S. media fail to mention that Soleimani and the U.S. fought on the same side. In 2001 Iran supported the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. It used its good relations with the Hazara Militia and the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, which both the CIA and Iran had supplied for years, to support the U.S. operation. The Wikipedia entry for the 2001 uprising in Herat lists U.S. General Tommy Franks and General Qassem Soleimani as allied commanders.

In 2015 the U.S. and Iran again collaborated. This time to defeat ISIS in Iraq. During the battle to liberate Tikrit the U.S. air force flew in support of General Soleimani's ground forces. Newsweek reported at that time:

While western nations, including the U.S., were slow to react to ISIS's march across northern Iraq, Soleimani was quick to play a more public role in Tehran's efforts to tackle the terror group. For example, the commander was seen in pictures with militiamen in the northern Iraqi town of Amerli when it was recaptured from ISIS last September.

...
Top U.S. general Martin Dempsey has said that the involvement of Iran in the fight against ISIS in Iraq could be a positive step, as long as the situation does not descend into sectarianism, because of fears surrounding how Shia militias may treat the remaining Sunni population of Tikrit if it is recaptured. The military chief also claimed that almost two thirds of the 30,000 offensive were Iranian-backed militiamen, meaning that without Iranian assistance and Soleimani's guidance, the offensive on Tikrit may not have been possible.

It is deplorable that U.S. media and politicians blame Soleimani for U.S. casualties during the invasion of Iraq. Shia groups caused only 17% of all U.S. casualties and fought, like the Sadr Brigades, without support from Iran. There are also revived claims that Iran provided the Iraqi resistance with Explosive Formed Penetrators used in roadside bombs. But that claim had been proven to be was false more than 12 years ago.

[...] 

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Israel was not involved in Soleimani's murder

I thought that was likely from the tone of Debkafile's initial report on the incident; now comes verification, although the Israelis might have provided some intelligence to the US on Soleimani's movements, if I recall from the Debkafile report. 

Netanyahu backs away from Soleimani assassination, warns ministers to ‘stay out’ of purely ‘American event’
By Helen Buyniski
January 7. 2020
RT

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly warned his cabinet not to get too involved in the US murder of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, lest Tel Aviv gets dragged into the escalating conflict between Washington and Tehran.

“The assassination of Soleimani isn't an Israeli event but an American event. We were not involved and should not be dragged into it,” Netanyahu reportedly told his security cabinet during a meeting on Monday, as cited by Israel's Channel 13. He advised ministers to avoid speaking to the media about Thursday's targeted assassination beyond supporting the US right to defend itself, so as not to give the impression that Israel had played any role in it.

The directors of Mossad and military intelligence reassured the ministers that the likelihood of a retaliatory attack is low, since "Israel stayed at a distance from the incident," and that Iran will begin planning its reciprocal move on Tuesday following the conclusion of the national mourning period for Soleimani, according to the same sources.

Netanyahu’s sudden reticence is particularly notable because he has been advocating a US-Iran conflict for much of his political career. For over 20 years, he has insisted that the Islamic republic was just steps away from producing nuclear weapons, even when Israeli intelligence publicly argued otherwise.

The Israeli PM was also front and center in the run-up to the most recent Iraq War, warning the US Congress in 2002 that Saddam Hussein had "weapons of mass destruction" – including pursuing atomic bombs – which turned out not to exist at all.

Just last year, Netanyahu was urging the US and its Middle Eastern allies to take up the cause of war against Iran, emboldened by US President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal and re-impose crippling sanctions against Tehran, despite its compliance with the agreement.

However, the overt US killing of a military commander who was apparently very popular in Iran has provoked serious talk of retribution, not just in Tehran, but among the Hezbollah – the Lebanese Shia militia that boasts of fighting Israel to a draw in 2006 – as well.

Netanyahu has had a tough 2019, clinging onto the post of PM in a purely technical mandate after two elections mere months apart delivered a hung Knesset and required an unprecedented third, coming this spring. Talking a tough game against Iran in order to get Israeli votes is one thing, but facing the real possibility of being the target of Iranian missiles is apparently quite another.

[END REPORT]

I think Bibi is less concerned about being targeted by Iranian missiles and more with the response from top European leaders' to what was in effect an American act of war against Iran -- and Iraq -- at a time the Europeans were trying hard to smooth relations with Tehran's leaders.  Bibi needs as much support from the Europeans as he can get right now.  And of course the Europeans don't want their troops in Iraq targeted in revenge for Soleimani's death.

It's rare for RT to give a reporter a byline, by the way. 

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