"These countries don't want to ruin ties with Russia just to please U.S. and its allies."

Firstpost (India) November 14: 

If the Europeans "fail to end the war they will have to carry the burden.'

Exact purpose of Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy systems:

"The redeployment of the reserve forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), and the delivery of foreign armament to operations areas have been frustrated."

The full report from MoA:

 Ukraine - Switching the Lights Off (moonofalabama.org)  -today 

The careful destruction of energy systems in Ukraine continues.

From today's clobber list as provided by the Defense Ministry of Russia:

On 17 November, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a concentrated strike, using high-precision long-range air-, sea- and ground-based weapons, at the facilities of military control, defence industry, as well as related fuel and energy infrastructure of Ukraine.

The goals of the strike have been reached.

All the missiles have accurately stricken the assigned facilities.

I have no idea if the last line is true but it does not matter much.

The targeting of 330 kilovolt transformers in various switching stations has cut some 50% of the distribution capability of Ukraine's electricity network. These transformers weigh up to 200 tons. There are no replacements. You do not buy them at the next corner but will have order them with years of lead time. As far as I can tell Russia is currently Russia the only producer of transformers of that type.

Isn't it a war crime to destroy the infrastructure that supplies civilians?

It depends. If the infrastructure is used exclusively for civilian purpose the destruction is illegal. But the electricity and transport infrastructure in Ukraine is used for civilian AND military purposes. In a recent Politico piece Ukrainian officials are even confirming that:

Ukraine tells allies it may not be able to recover from more Russian attacks on energy systems:

An unreliable energy sector could have deadly consequences, Ukrainian officials say. In recent conversations, they’ve added that it could halt food production and transport operations — critical services needed to support military operations.

The clobber list also includes this curious item:

The strike has resulted in the neutralisation of the production capacities for nuclear weaponry.

I wonder where and what that has been:

One depot of artillery armament, delivered by western countries and prepared for being sent to troops, has been destroyed.

The redeployment of the reserve forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), and the delivery of foreign armament to operations areas have been frustrated.

The last sentence describes the real purpose of the attacks on the energy systems.

The lack of energy is degrading the railway network that brings weapons from the west to the eastern front. It makes redeployment of units from one front section to another very difficult and time consuming. It will give the Russian forces the advantage when they change the Schwerpunkt [center of gravity] of their attacks from one corner of the frontline to another.

Another effect of the strikes on the electricity systems and the blackouts in the big cities that follow them is a renewed stream of refugees that will want reach western Europe. It will over time change the public opinion and the political priorities of those countries. If they fail to end the war they will have to carry the burden.

Posted by b at 14:37 UTC

[END REPORT]

American attitude: 'Whatever goes wrong in all of this, the Europeans will eat the cost.'

When oh when will EU leaders grow a brain about Ukraine and the USA?

Today's discussion from The Duran:

Trade between India and Russia surges. EU continues to self-destruct - YouTube

********

"There is a global energy crisis, a global inflation crisis and a global economic crisis."

Yes, Britain is the fifth largest economy.  

U.K. economy in recession for first time since 2008 - CBS News

BY RAMY INOCENCIO
NOVEMBER 17, 2022 / 12:30 PM 

CBS NEWS

London — The United Kingdom has slipped into recession, the country's finance minister Jeremy Hunt said Thursday. The last time the U.K. was in recession was during the 2008 financial crisis, which shattered the global economy. 

Hunt, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the second-highest ranking member of Britain's government behind Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, made the anxiety-inducing declaration to lawmakers gathered in the House of Commons to hear his hour-long financial address, called the Autumn Statement.

In it, he outlined the state of the world's fifth-largest economy, which has been battered by soaring inflation and energy prices. The economic woes are due in large part to the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions lingering from the COVID-19 pandemic, but also a self-inflicted wound by the previous prime minister and her top economist, whose plan to slash taxes sent shockwaves through financial markets. 

At the heart of Hunt's proposals is a painful mix of tax increases and public spending cuts, aimed at filling what economists have described as a "massive black hole" in the government's finances — a gap of about $64 billion. 

"There is a global energy crisis, a global inflation crisis and a global economic crisis. But today with this plan for stability, growth and public services, we will face into the storm," said Hunt. "We do so today with British resilience and British compassion."  

As the finance minister spoke, the value of U.K. stocks fell to their lowest point of the day, but recouped losses to close flat by the end of trading in London. The British pound, however, fell about 1% to trade at 1.17 to the U.S. dollar. That fall came despite the government having telegraphed its plans before the chancellor's televised address, in the hope that the news would not spook investors. 

In taxation, the threshold to trigger payment of the top income tax rate, 45%, will fall from £150,000 to just over £125,000 per year. That and other thresholds were to be frozen for two years, which means that as people make more money — wages are up 5.5% year on year, though not keeping up with inflation at 11.1% — millions of people will eventually be pushed into higher tax brackets. 

Hunt said the government would maintain a cap on energy prices introduced by his predecessor Liz Truss, but would raise that cap slightly from next April. Oil and gas companies will also be forced to pay a higher tax, known as a windfall tax, on their profits, which have soared thanks to the soaring oil and gas prices, through 2028. 

"The overall result, therefore, is that fiscal policy will be tightened materially next year, amplifying the recession already underway," Samuel Tombs, Chief U.K. Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in an analysis.

[END REPORT]

See also:

As recession looms, British business sends out lending SOS | Reuters - November 17

[...]

Banks are increasingly nervous about extending credit to small companies, according to data compiled by Reuters and interviews with lenders and business heads, as rising costs of debt, labour and raw materials put the business case of lending to such companies under unprecedented strain.

[...]

‘Recession’ is far too mild a term for what Britain is about to face | The Independent  

The sluggish growth punctuated by relapses into inflation and recession will continue indefinitely. [...]

********

JCOS Chief Milley knows which side of his bread is buttered.

Two important discussions; the first explains why so many incompetents came to lead the U.S. military.  

Judge Napolitano interviews Col. Macgregor:

Ukraine Russia War - What is Next? - YouTube - November 16

and The Duran's report today: 

Ukraine 'for as long as it takes' w/Brian Berletic from The New Atlas - YouTube

*******

French inch toward admitting America is their true enemy

Now when will Germans inch toward admitting the obvious about their country and America? 

You are under contrôle: French elites privately fear the US and new research explains why — RT World News

Intelligence services worry about American economic warfare more than terrorism or the prospect of confrontation with Russia or China

New research published by France’s Ecole de Guerre Economique has revealed some extraordinary findings about who and what the French intelligence services fear most when it comes to threats to the country’s economy.

The findings are based on extensive research and interviews with French intelligence experts, including representatives of spy agencies, and so reflect the positions and thinking of specialists in the under-researched field of economic warfare. Their collective view is very clear - 97 percent consider the US to be the foreign power that “most threatens” the “economic interests” of Paris.

Who is your true enemy?

The research was conducted to answer the question, “what will become of France in an increasingly exacerbated context of economic war?”. This query has become increasingly urgent for the EU as Western sanctions on Moscow’s exports, in particular energy, have had a catastrophic effect on European countries, but have not had the predicted effect on Russia. Nor have they hurt the US, the country pushing most aggressively for these measures.

Yet the question is not being asked in other EU capitals. It is precisely the continent-wide failure, or unwillingness at least, to consider the “negative repercussions on the daily lives” of European citizens that inspired the Ecole de Guerre Economique report. 

As the report’s lead author Christian Harbulot explains, ever since the end of World War II, France has “lived in a state of the unspoken,” as have other European countries.

At the conclusion of that conflict, “manifest fear” among French elites of the Communist Party taking power in France “strongly incited a part of the political class to place our security in the hands of the US, in particular by calling for the establishment of permanent military bases in France.” 

“It goes without saying that everything has its price. The compensation for this aid from across the Atlantic was to make us enter into a state of global dependence - monetary, financial, technological - with regard to the US,” Harbulot says. And aside from 1958 - 1965 when General Charles de Gaulle attempted to increase the autonomy of Paris from Washington and NATO, French leaders have “fallen into line.”

This acceptance means aside from rare public scandals such as the sale of French assets to US companies, or Australia canceling its purchase of French-made submarines in favor of a controversial deal with the US and UK (AUKUS), there is little recognition - let alone discussion - in the mainstream as to how Washington exerts a significant degree of control over France’s economy, and therefore politics. 

As a result, politicians and the public alike struggle to identify “who their enemy” truly is. “In spheres of power” across Europe, Harbulot says, “it is customary to keep this kind of problem silent,” and economic warfare remains an “underground confrontation which precedes, accompanies and then takes over from classic military conflicts.”

This in turn means any debate about “hostility or harmfulness” in Europe’s relations with Washington misses the underlying point that “the US seeks to ensure its supremacy over the world, without displaying itself as a traditional empire.” 

The EU might have a trade surplus of 150 billion euros with the US, but the latter would never willingly allow this economic advantage to translate to “strategic autonomy” from it. And this gain is achieved against the constant backdrop of - and more than offset by - “strong geopolitical and military pressure” from the US at all times.

I spy with my Five Eyes

Harbulot believes the “state of the unspoken” to be even more pronounced in Germany, as Berlin “seeks to establish a new form of supremacy within Europe” based on its dependency on the US. 

As France “is not in a phase of power building but rather in a search to preserve its power” - a “very different” state of affairs - this should mean the French can more easily recognize and admit to toxic dependency on Washington, and see it as a problem that must be resolved.

It is certainly hard to imagine such an illuminating and honest report being produced by a Berlin-based academic institute, despite the country being the most badly affected by anti-Russian sanctions. Some analysts have spoken of a possible deindustrialization of Germany, as its inability to power energy-intensive economic sectors has destroyed its 30-year-long trade surplus - maybe forever.

But aside from France’s “dependency” on Washington being different to that of Germany, Paris has other reasons for cultivating a “culture of economic combat,” and keeping very close track of the “foreign interests” that are harming the country’s economy and companies.

A US National Security Agency spying order sent to other members of the Five Eyes global spying network - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK - released by WikiLeaks, shows that since at least 2002 Washington has issued its English-speaking allies annual “information need” requests, seeking any and all information they can dig up on the economic activities of French companies, the economic and trade policies of France’s government, and the views of Paris on the yearly G8 and G20 summits.

Whatever is unearthed is shared with key US economic decision-makers and departments, including the Federal Reserve and Treasury, as well as intelligence agencies, such as the CIA. Another classified WikiLeaks release shows that the latter – between November 2011 and July 2012 – employed spies from across the Five Eyes (OREA) to infiltrate and monitor the campaigns of parties and candidates in France’s presidential election.

Washington was particularly worried about a Socialist Party victory, and so sought information on a variety of topics, “to prepare key US policymakers for the post-election French political landscape and the potential impact on US-France relations.” Of particular interest was “the presidential candidates' views on the French economy, what current economic policies…they see as not working, and what policies…they promote to help boost France's economic growth prospects[.]”

The CIA was also very interested in the “views and characterization” of the US on the part of presidential candidates, and any efforts by them and the parties they represented to “reach out to leaders of other countries,” including some of the states that form the Five Eyes network itself. 

Naturally, those members would be unaware that their friends in Washington, and other Five Eyes capitals, would be spying on them while they spied on France. 

It was clearly not for nothing that veteran US grand strategist and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once remarked, “to be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”

[END REPORT]

********

But not shameful enough to stop the carnage, eh, President Grybauskaite?

“We’re learning in Ukraine how to fight, and we’re learning how to use our NATO equipment,” [former Lithunian President] Dalia Grybauskaite said in an interview last week. “And, yes, it is a teaching battleground.”

She paused, then added: “It is shameful for me because Ukrainians are paying with their lives for these exercises for us.”

Western Allies Look to Ukraine as a Testing Ground for Weapons

By Lara Jakes

Nov. 15, 2022, 12:01 a.m. ET

The New York Times

Though the battle for Ukraine remains largely a grinding artillery war, new advances in technology and training there are being closely monitored for the ways they are starting to shape combat

Three months ago, as Ukrainian troops were struggling to advance against Russian forces in the south, the military’s headquarters in Kyiv quietly deployed a valuable new weapon to the battlefield. It was not a rocket launcher, cannon or another kind of heavy arms from Western allies. Instead, it was a real-time information system known as Delta — an online network that military troops, civilian officials and even vetted bystanders could use to track and share desperately needed details about Russian forces.

The software, developed in coordination with NATO, had barely been tested in battle. But as they moved across the Kherson region in a major counteroffensive, Ukraine’s forces employed Delta, as well as powerful weaponry supplied by the West, to push the Russians out of towns and villages they had occupied for months. The big payoff came on Friday with the retreat of Russian forces from Kherson City — a major prize in the nearly nine-month war.

Delta is one example of how Ukraine has become a testing ground for state-of-the-art weapons and information systems, and new ways to use them, that Western political officials and military commanders predict could shape warfare for generations to come.

The battle for Ukraine, to be sure, remains largely a grinding war of attrition, with relentless artillery attacks and other World War II-era tactics. Both sides primarily rely on Soviet-era weapons, and Ukraine has reported running low on ammunition for them.

But even as the traditional warfare is underway, new advances in technology and training in Ukraine are being closely monitored for the ways they are changing the face of the fight. Beyond Delta, they include remote-controlled boats, anti-drone weapons known as SkyWipers and an updated version of an air-defense system built in Germany that the German military itself has yet to use.

“Ukraine is the best test ground, as we have the opportunity to test all hypotheses in battle and introduce revolutionary change in military tech and modern warfare,” said Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s vice prime minister and minister of digital transformation.

He was speaking in October at a NATO conference in Norfolk, Va., where he publicly discussed Delta for the first time.

He also emphasized the growing reliance on the remote-controlled aircraft and boats that officials and military experts said have become weapons of choice like those in no previous war.

“In the last two weeks, we have been convinced once again the wars of the future will be about maximum drones and minimal humans,” Mr. Federov said.

Since last summer, Ukraine and its allies have been testing remote-controlled boats packed with explosives in the Black Sea, culminating in a bold attack in October against Russia’s fleet off the coast of Sevastopol.

Military officials largely have declined to discuss the attack or provide details about the boats, but both the United States and Germany have supplied Ukraine with similar ships this year. Shaurav Gairola, a naval weapons analyst for Janes, a defense intelligence firm, said the Black Sea strike showed a sophisticated level of planning, given the apparent success of the small and relatively inexpensive boats against Russia’s mightier war ships.

The attack “has pushed the conflict envelope,” Mr. Gairola said. He said it “imposes a paradigm shift in naval war doctrines and symbolizes an expression of futuristic warfare tactics.”

The use of remote-controlled boats could become particularly important, military experts said, showing how warfare at sea might play out as the United States and its allies brace for potential future naval aggressions by China in the East and South China Seas, and against Taiwan.

Inevitably, the Russians’ increased use of drones has spurred Ukraine’s allies to send new technology to stop them.

Late last year, Ukraine’s military began using the newly developed drone-jamming guns known as SkyWipers to thwart Russian separatists in the eastern Donbas region. The SkyWipers, which can divert or disrupt drones by blocking their communication signals, were developed in Lithuania and had been on the market for only two years before they were given to Ukraine through a NATO security assistance program.

Nearly nine months into the war, the SkyWipers are now only one kind of drone jammer being used in Ukraine. But they have been singled out as a highly coveted battlefield asset — both for Ukrainian troops and enemy forces that hope to capture them.

It is not known how many SkyWipers have been sent to Ukraine, although Lithuania reportedly sent several dozen in October 2021. In a statement to The New York Times, Lithuania’s defense ministry said it sent 50 SkyWipers in August after Ukrainian officials called it “one of the top priorities.”

Dalia Grybauskaite, who was Lithuania’s president when the SkyWipers were being designed, said her country’s defense industry made a calculated turn toward producing high-tech equipment during her time in office, from 2009 to 2019, to update a stockpile of weapons that “were mainly Kalashnikovs” and other Soviet-era arms.

“We’re learning in Ukraine how to fight, and we’re learning how to use our NATO equipment,”Ms. Grybauskaite said in an interview last week. “And, yes, it is a teaching battleground.”

She paused, then added: “It is shameful for me because Ukrainians are paying with their lives for these exercises for us.”

The Western lethal aid that is being sent to Ukraine consists, for the most part, of recently updated versions of older weapons. That was the case with the German-made infrared, medium-range homing missiles and launchers known as IRIS-T, which protect against Russian rocket attacks.

They have a longer range than the previous generation of air-defense systems that debuted in 2015. Germany’s own military has not yet used the updated version of the systems, which were shipped to Ukraine last month. Additional missiles were delivered last week.

Rafael Loss, a weapons expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that by themselves the upgraded air defenses do not “represent a game-changer.” But he said their use in Ukraine showed how the government in Kyiv had evolved beyond Soviet-era warfare and brought it more in line with NATO.

Senior NATO and Ukrainian officials said the Delta network was a prime example. More than an early alert system, Delta combines real-time maps and pictures of enemy assets, down to how many soldiers are on the move and what kinds of weapons they are carrying, officials said. That is combined with intelligence — including from surveillance satellites, drones and other government sources — to decide where and how Ukrainian troops should attack.

Ukraine and Western powers determined they needed the system after Russia instigated a separatist-backed war in Ukraine’s east in 2014. It was developed by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry with NATO assistance and first tested in 2017, in part to wean troops off Russian standards of siloing information among ground units instead of sharing it.  It has been included in training exercises between Ukraine’s military and other NATO planners in the years since.

Information sharing has long been a staple for American and other NATO forces. What NATO officials said was surprising about the Delta system was that the network was so broadly accessible to troops that it helped them make battlefield decisions even faster than some more modern militaries. In Kherson, Delta helped Ukrainian troops quickly identify Russian supply lines to attack, Inna Honchar, commander of the nongovernment group Aerorozvidka, which develops drones and other technology for Ukraine’s military, said in a statement on Sunday.

“Bridges were certainly key points,” Ms. Honchar added. “Warehouses and control points were damaged, and the provision of troops became critical” as Russians became increasingly isolated, she said.

Delta’s first real test had come in the weeks immediately after the February invasion as a Russian convoy stretching 40 miles long headed toward Kyiv. Ukrainian drones overhead tracked its advance, and troops assessed the best places to intercept it. Residents texted up-to-the-minute reports to the government with details that could have been seen only up close.

All the information was collected, analyzed and disseminated through Delta to help Ukraine’s military force a Russian retreat, Ukrainian officials said.

“That was the very first moment when Delta capabilities were realized at max,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a statement. It said Delta had since helped identify 1,500 confirmed Russian targets across the country on any given day — with “hundreds of them being eliminated” within 48 hours.

The test runs in Ukraine are helping senior officials and defense planners in the United States and its allies decide how to invest military spending over the next two decades. Even routine missions in Ukraine — like how to get fuel to missile-toting vehicles on the edge of enemy territory — have set off discussions in American commands over how to design equipment that is not dependent on supply lines.

And longer-term strategy about how to coordinate and communicate among allied troops, which officials now say was a challenge during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is being developed as the battle against Russia continues to unfold.

Such strategic military reforms were being discussed before Ukraine was invaded, said Gen. Philippe Lavigne of France, who leads NATO’s Allied Command Transformation, but “our early observations of this war is that those assumptions are still valid.”

He said Ukraine had shown how future warfare was likely to be fast-paced and highly contested not just on the ground or in the skies, but also, most important, in cyberspace.

“This is the future operating environment,” General Lavigne said.

[END REPORT]

********

"Now we are faced with a serious great power that is not going to roll over for us."

American Col. Douglas Macgregor (Ret.) tells is like it is and does so in less than 2 minutes.  

And from Clayton Morris, another American telling the bald truth, in a few more words: "We are arming terrorists under the guise of democracy."

U.S. Secret Wars EXPOSED as oil tankers attacked overnight in Syria

This looks like the article Clayton is quoting, at the original publications site:

How Support to Partner Forces Enables Secret War (justsecurity.org)

*******

 

"Ukraine is in the middle of an all-or-nothing offensive" while Russia is waiting them out

Ukraine's battle strategy, repeatedly applied, has been absolutely devastating to its troops and materiel to the point of suicidal; in this they've been doing much of the Russian military's work them.  

Ten-minute analysis from Brian Berletic. 

Will Saudi Arabia accept yuan in payment for oil? Question of the century.

If Xi Jinping travels to Saudi Arabia this year, we might get an inkling of the answer.  China’s Xi Jinping Plans Visit to Saudi Arabia Amid Global Reshuffling - WSJ - November 7.

If the answer is yes, this paves the way for all OPEC nations to accept yuan in payment. China is already Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner; it buys 25 percent of the kingdom's oil. Saudi Arabia considers accepting yuan instead of dollars for oil sales, report says | Middle East Eye - March 15

Next question: Will Saudi Arabia join BRICS?  If the answer is yes, this paves the way for successful development of a new basket of currencies to rival the US dollar.   

BRICS Expansion: Five New Members in 2023? - Impakter - July 18 

Following Russia's announcement of Iran & Argentina's BRICS membership bids, the alliance president reveals that Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, a NATO member, have the same plans.

 Just over two weeks after Russian state media announced that Iran and Argentina filed their official applications to join BRICS, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt began the process of making the same move, the alliance President Purnima Anand said on July 14.

“All these countries have shown their interest in joining and are preparing to apply for membership. I believe this is a good step, because expansion is always looked upon favorably, it will definitely bolster BRICS’ global influence,” Anand told Russian media. 

According to Russia Today, she pointed out that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt are “already engaged in the [BRICS membership] process,” saying she hopes that they will join soon but that she doubts they will all join simultaneously. 

[...]  

We'll have better insight about these momentous questions after Xi visits Saudi Arabia, if he visits, and after the BRICS 2023 summit, which is still in the planning stage. The fate of human civilization as we've known it for almost 80 years hangs on the answers.  

********

US and Russia supposedly will hold nuclear talks

" ... before correcting himself to say that the meeting will definitely happen."

US and Russia to hold nuclear talks – State Department — RT World News - November 8

The meeting will be the first since hostilities broke out in Ukraine

American and Russian diplomats will meet to discuss the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty “in the near future,” US State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters on Tuesday. Earlier, Bloomberg and Kommersant cited sources who said that a meeting of the Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC) may soon be held in Egypt.

“We have agreed that the BCC will meet in the near future. Under the terms of the New START treaty, the work of the BCC is confidential, but we do hope for a constructive session,” Price said at a press briefing.

The US believes in the “transformative power of diplomacy and dialogue” but is “clear-eyed and realistic” about what it can accomplish when it comes to Russia, Price added. The conversations are “focused on risk-reduction” but Washington wants to ensure that the ability to pass messages back and forth with Moscow “does not atrophy.”

“If there is, and it sounds like there will be, a meeting of the BCC, that is a good thing,” Price added, before correcting himself to say that the meeting will definitely happen.

While Price would not name the venue for the meeting, Bloomberg mentioned Cairo as a neutral location that is more acceptable to Russia than Geneva, since Switzerland has taken part in the US and EU sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine conflict.

The New START is the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia, set to expire in 2026 unless renewed. The BCC last met in October 2021.

Moscow suspended the inspection regime under the treaty in August, citing Western sanctions that have prevented Russian inspectors from doing their work in the US, thus putting Washington at an unfair advantage. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the inspections would continue once the principle of parity and equality is restored. Inspections had previously been disrupted by lockdowns in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

[END REPORT]

See also: 

Top White House official comments on reported talks with Moscow — RT World News 

Russia and US to Resume Nuclear Talks as War in Ukraine Rages On - Bloomberg

********

Russian troops retreat from parts of Kherson region

 

Breaking News: Russian MoD Announces Troop Withdrawal From Parts of Kherson Region to Left Bank of Dnepr River

The Sputnik report has a long-winded explanation.  

********

Democrats depend on censorship so they will try to destroy Elon Musk

Elon Musk, Twitter's new boss, has freed Twitter from censorship by firing the censors at his company. The Democrat-controlled journalism profession in America will not take this lying down. 

Tucker Carlson: Propagandists lost protection from Twitter - YouTube

********

War update: Ukraine losing the initiative, Russia on the march

Russia Wrests Initiative from Ukraine, Advances on Liman, Conducts Nuclear Drills,Threatens Starlink - YouTube - The Duran's Alexander Mercouris, October 27.  

The first part of his discussion is about Russia's air war. Kiev has announced that about 40 percent of Ukraine's energy system is now inoperable due to Russian missile attacks on the energy infrastructure.  Blackouts are increasingly routine in cities across the country.  Photographs show that tonight much of Kiev is in darkness; here is one "Million people tonight are without electricity in Kiev https://t.co/LQo85m4ZCs" / Twitter

 

At the beginning of the air blitz, Dima at the Military Summary Channel analyzed Russia's strategy. Ensuing events showed that his analysis was correct, so I'm now sorry I didn't link to the report. But Alexander gives a fair summary of the strategy in his update today.  And he emphasizes a point he's returned to many times, and which by now is well known to Ukraine war-watchers: 

 " . . . the Western powers have neglected development of surface-to-air missile defenses because they have relied excessively on assumptions of air superiority because of the size of their air forces, And that has now put them in a position where they're going to struggle to meet Ukraine's needs in order to resist this Russian missile offensive that we're seeing now. "

 Alexander's summary of major events in the ground war starts at the 19:07 minute mark.  

********

"Industries finding it increasingly difficult to continue operations in Europe."

So how are those Russia sanctions working out for the Europeans and Germany in particular? 

Europe on Its Knees as Biggest Chemical Plant Dumps Germany for China | Europe Energy Crisis - YouTube = FirstPost (India) 4:23 minutes - October 27

********

"Steady as she goes, right over the cliff."

 The Duran analyzes Britain's new prime minister:

Globalist, technocrat Prime Minister - YouTube

Rishi Sunak was installed, not elected, and by only a faction in the Conservative Party; the rest were locked out. 

Sunak, Britain's first Hindu PM, might have a surprise up his sleeve.  It depends on how committed a Hindu he is. If he's a Hindu version of the Christians who go to church twice a year -- Easter and Christmas -- then Britain's defense policy will continue to advance to the cliff, as The Duran's Alexander Mercouris predicts.  However, he took his oath of office as an MP in the House of Commons by placing his hand on a copy of the Bhagavad Gita.  

So, need anyone ask why he was actually the Conservative Party's very last choice for PM despite his obvious qualifications for the post and Britain's desperate financial situation? The British government despises the Hindus, Narendra Modi, and India's Hindu-oriented BJP in that order. We'll see how much Sunak despises Modi. 

On the other hand, although he is of Indian ethnic heritage, he was born and raised in British-controlled Kenya. He is very British -- as British as an Indian is allowed to be.

********

Western democracies becoming autocratic as U.S. moves toward open war with Russia UPDATED 10/26 7:30 ET PM

It keeps getting worse in the United States, almost by the day -- a situation mirrored in the European Union and Britain. Tucker Carlson has been chronicling the American descent for many months. Here is his October 25 report at Fox News, in which he points out that the 'wrong' thoughts can be illegal in the USA. "Question the system and they haul you away."

UPDATE 7:30 PM ET October 26

Message from YouTube:

This video is no longer available because the YouTube account associated with this video has been terminated.

 Okay, here is the link to Tucker's opening discussion; we'll see if that works:

 Tucker Carlson: Are the wrong thoughts now illegal? - YouTube

END UPDATE

Why haven't more American risen to protest?  Colonel Douglas Macgregor answered the same question, put to him on October 25 by Judge Andrew Napolitano during their update on the Ukraine war.  In this case they were talking about Washington's 'war party' inching the U.S. toward open armed conflict with Russia. 

Macgregor replied, "The people who govern in Washington are really accustomed to a quiescent compliant public. How often do people take to the streets to object to what we do overseas with the American military?  ... It took years before [Americans] took to the streets to object to Vietnam."

The op-ed they reference is Macgregor's Playing at War in Ukraine - The American Conservative, published October 24.    

***********

Happy Diwali!

 

If words could kill, Russia would be defeated in Ukraine by now.

John Batchelor and Michael Vlahos, in their roles as Gaius and Germanicas, ponder the West's "war fatigue and desperation" as it faces a defeat in Ukraine after months of promising a victory over Russia:

 John Batchelor Show / #Londinium90AD: Gaius and Germanicus consider the ruthlessness of Russia at war. Michael Vlahos. #FriendsofHistoryDebatingSociety (audioboom.com)

John warns that Russia can be very ruthless in war, but I don't think ruthlessness is the issue, if I may jump into the conversation. 

The feedback loop in battlefield war is very short; it's very long in political war.  The West has tried to fight in the political realm against Russia's battlefield war. This has led to a profound disconnection between what is actually happening in Ukraine and public perceptions. This has made is relatively easy for Russia to walk away with the store, as we say in the USA. They managed to destroy a big chunk of Ukraine's military and divide the rest into what Alexander Mercouris calls "penny packets," as Ukraine split its forces to chase Russian troops from pillar to post. 

Yet the West doggedly continued to orchestrate a war that didn't exist outside the political realm.     

Could the eerie situation touch off a nuclear war, now that the West is contemplating Ukraine's defeat on the actual battlefield? This is John's concern, one that should be shared by every reasonable adult.

It would be easier to scale back the threat if Western societies understood that modernity has allowed them to get away with actions that depend on a long feedback loop.

Many situations in the modern era allow us to stave off the consequences of bad decisions until the inevitable feedback happens. Many jobs have become less dependent on short feedback loops. An example is piloting a plane; it used to be that if the pilot made a serious mistake, the plane would crash. Fast feedback. Technology has to a great extent allowed pilots to compensate for mistakes, obviating the fast feedback loop. 

Such compensations are a great achievement for humanity. The hidden downside is that they've created a way of thinking that tends to ignore longer-term consequences. This has led to the widespread idea that reality is what one says it is. 

The public in Western democracies insists on addressing social problems in political and moral terms rather than epistemological ones. So, it's not easy to convey that survival for the human race now depends on a keen awareness that reality doesn't care about politics or questions of good and evil. Yet it takes time to get the point across.

At the moment, we'll have to depend on Russian President Vladimir Putin's lessons on short feedback loops to do much of the arguing, as one national government after the other finds him to be far more reasonable than Nato and the American president.

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Russia's air campaign permanently crippling Ukraine's crucial infrastructure and reports of large-scale Russian troops to Kherson

 Ukrainian Power Outages, the US 101st Airborne, and Russia's Next Big Move - YouTube -- War update today from Brian Berletic at The New Atlas.

And from Intel Slava Z:

While someone is dispersing [sic] that the Russians are leaving Kherson, local publics report on large-scale transfers of Russian troops to the territory of the Kherson region. A lot of soldiers and a lot of equipment. The troops go both to the left and to the right bank. Most of all - it is on the right bank, in the Berislav region.

Oct 23 at 05:51

Summary in one sentence:  Russia is thinking long-term, Ukraine is thinking short-term.

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