Posted 90 minutes ago; Brian Berletic throws in a war update:
Translate
Saturday, December 17
Thursday, December 15
Wednesday, December 14
Ritter: "Every single Patriot system deployed in Ukraine will be destroyed."
Scott Ritter explains to Judge Napolitano what will happen if White House sends Patriots. Live:
Russia Targets Kyiv with More Drones - Scott Ritter - YouTube
Bashed up in Bakhmut. Western media in panic mode.
"No longer possible to pretend that Ukraine is winning the war." The Duran's war sitrep within the last hour:
Odessa blackouts. Ukraine situation crashing as Russian missile strikes continue - YouTube
Meanwhile:
MoA - U.S. To Send More Wunderwaffen to Ukraine (moonofalabama.org)
********
Tuesday, December 13
"If we continue on this path, it's all over." Growing threat of nuclear weapons use.
Scott Ritter has been warning of this in the strongest possible terms ever since I've been listening to him talk about the Ukraine conflict. In this discussion today he starts by analyzing Vladimir Putin's words on December 9 about Russia's changing view of preemptive nuclear attack. Next Scott mentions Angela Merkel's frightening confession, and how this contributes to the growing nuclear standoff. From there he answers a range of questions.
See also MoA - When False Claims Are News - Russia, India, Nukes (moonofalabama.org) - December 13
This just in from Brian Berletic:
*********
Weaponization of U.S. dollar hegemony creating inevitable backlash
End of Dollar Dominance: China Begins Global Dedollarisation Campaign? | China Arab Summit - YouTube - FirstPost (India) December 12
But it's complicated:
China Looks To Expand Use Of Yuan In Energy Deals | OilPrice.com
- Summary
- China is looking to increase the use of its currency, the Yuan in oil and gas deals with the Middle East.
- While Chinese currency has made inroads in global trade, the yuan accounts for just 2.7% of the market versus the dollar at 41%.
- Experts have warned that China’s efforts to open up its capital markets could end up having an unintended consequence--an even weaker yuan.
What about India? Again, it's complicated:
Shift from the petrodollar imminent as India, others ditch US Dollar (theexchange.africa) - March 19
Indian refiners pay dollars for Russian oil after dirham attempts fail | Reuters - September 28
- Summary
- Russian oil traders asked some Indian refiners to pay in dirhams
- Dubai's Mashreq Bank declined to settle in dirhams - sources
- Mashreq Bank, U.S. Treasury declined to comment
- India's UCO Bank to soon set up rupee account for Gazprombank
They're going to keep trying, with the yuan as spearhead. It will be slow going but now we're seeing earnest efforts to establish an African common currency:
Death of the dollar, what’s in it for Africa - The Exchange ("Africa's Investment Gateway"
[BEGIN REPORT]
BY NJENGA HAKEENAH ON MARCH 31, 2020- China has edged out the US as the world’s biggest contributor to the global gross domestic product which currently stands at an estimated 16 per cent.
The US accounted for 15.2 per cent of the global GDP after adjusting for purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2018. This share is expected to decrease to 13.86 per cent by 2024.
While the US still commands a sizeable amount of the world’s business, there seems to be a new order coming up where the nation will be relegated in terms of not only business but influence in a new world where the dollar will cease being the common currency.
How soon this happens is still not known but the signs are there and they have been with us for a while.
Already, China, Russia and Pakistan are laying out plans to start conducting bilateral trade and investment while issuing bonds in local and national currencies instead of the US dollar.
The eight-member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are to finalise a road map introducing a system of mutual settlement of national currencies.
Other SCO members include India, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan while observer countries Iran, Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia are looking to become regular members of the SCO.
With the covid-19 coronavirus pandemic, it seems that the world is realigning itself to a new way of doing business.
As it is, the Chinese economy is already controlling a huge chunk of the global business and with the markets now more integrated and interlinked, any shock affecting China now has far greater consequences for the world economy. We have seen it with the coronavirus pandemic and it could only get more interesting to watch.
According to the UN-FAO, the supply shocks due to morbidity and mortality and the containment efforts that restrict mobility and higher costs of doing business due to restricted supply chains and a tightening of credit will affect economies leading to a reduction of economic growth.
This March, the OECD cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2020 from 2.9 per cent to 2.4 per cent, which would be the lowest level since the financial crisis a decade ago. It warned that a prolonged and more intensive coronavirus epidemic could even halve this figure to a mere 1.5 per cent.
Globally, the demand will also fall due to higher uncertainty, increased precautionary behaviour, containment efforts and rising financial costs that reduce the ability to spend.
For Africa, things could be even harder since there is also a significant devaluation of the exchange rate with respect to the US dollar. This will also affect the import-dependent countries most of which are in Africa.
But with the realigning, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will come in handy by injecting new momentum and moving the region from stagnation. For decades, the continent has been regarded as one of the poorest and least dynamic economies in the world. This is despite the wealth it has in terms of natural resources and human capital.
With the operationalisation of the AfCFTA in July this year, Africa, just like the rest of the world could be heading into a future of common ground in regard to trade and commerce. By breaking the cross border policies which have stymied intra-regional growth, the economic limitations could be coming to end as the continent liberalises cross-country travel and trade.
The continent is yet to have a common currency like the European Union but efforts by the various economic blocks have been seeking ways of introducing a common currency that could level the playing ground for the member countries.
In East Africa, for instance, the major benefits of a monetary union are the reduction of transaction costs, economies of international reserves, the elimination of exchange rate risk and region-wide price harmonization.
However, the region will take longer to establish a common currency since the 2024 deadline for a monetary union and the common currency is not attainable. The region has fallen behind in setting up the East African Monetary Institute (EAMI) which could be the basis of a common currency. Without the relevant institutions like the EAMI to support a single currency, it is almost impossible to have the region come up with an agreement on a currency.
But West Africa has already forged ahead with the agreement to ditch their monetary sovereignty this year and introduce the ECO, the region’s new common currency.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 15 member countries have agreed on the ECO which brings 380 million citizens together under a common monetary framework. Nigeria, Africa’s economic powerhouse is a member of the ECOWAS and with this newly formed currency, the project for a single currency in Africa is now closer than ever.
With autonomy, many countries and regions globally will seek more independence from the US dollar which will give them more say on loans and driving concessions.
With China already controlling a large portion of the global economy, it is now a matter of when and not if the world shifts from reliance on the greenback.
[END REPORT]
*******
Monday, December 12
First BRI, then Saudi oil priced in yuan: China's success in manufacturing builds on itself.
Update on the Belt and Road Initiative:
The Belt and Road; As the West Slumbers, China Advances - YouTube - Tomorrow's World Viewpoint - December 9
Yuan for Saudi oil
Saudi Arabia ditches dollar - YouTube - TFI Global (India) December 11
********
Mercouris, Macgregor latest Ukraine Sitreps
Ukraine Bakhmut Defences Crumble, Russia Advances Across Donbass, Serbia Readies for War - YouTube
U.S. gives Ukraine OK to drone strike Russia - YouTube
Also today The Duran goes into greater detail about Serbian crisis, which was obviously ginned up by the U,S./NATO.
NATO, Serbia, Russia; Second front and conflict in the Balkans - YouTube
********
Kitten takes ducklings for a walk
YouTube is an amazing place. The world is an amazing place.
Even though I posted it here, suggest you watch on full screen at YouTube for vista, closeups. And there are other videos of the same, uh, family. Hre's one.
********
Sunday, December 11
Jim Rogers: "Be worried."
He says that the mountain of global debt is set to collapse a couple years down the line. Well, Jim Rogers is a skilled analyst of financial affairs. Beyond that, I can only keep repeating my new mantra: We'll see.
Vlahos: "We became a kind of SWAT Team military."
In American and European public places crammed with blowhards, here are two Americans who actually know what they are talking about when they discuss NATO, U.S. military, and the absolute muddles of both. Quote in the title of this post is from Part 2 of their discussion, around the 9:50 minute mark.
Vlahos outlines his credentials and Macgregor's at the start of Part 1 then both set the stage for the rest of their discussion:
And here is part 3:
I do have a disagreement with Col. Macgregor's view of how the Russians initially thought and acted when they invaded Ukraine. Or rather a guess about their view, as Macgregor outlines near the start of Part 1. He thinks they made mistaken assumptions, which translated into initial mistakes in their invasion strategy.
Based on what I learned about the early phase of the invasion, my guess is that it's entirely possible they were engaged in a feint with the goals of splitting up and fixing in place large numbers of Ukranian forces while keeping NATO forces at bay. And I don't believe they were ever misled by Zelensky's appearance of being open to negotiation during the early phase of the war.
However, even I'm correct, there is no question in my mind that Macgregor knows what he is talking about when it comes to NATO and the U.S. military. And I think it is vital for the American civilian government and the Pentagon to act on his advice, which he details in Part 3 of the discussion -- not only vital for Americans but also for all major governments and in particular the European ones.
Finally, Macgregor has a doctorate in international relations from University of Virginia, awarded in 1987.
********
Thursday, December 8
"New scheme that will use the pretext of climate change to wage economic war"
Oh yes. They co-opt then debase everything and anything that people value--freedom, democracy, human rights, environmentalism, you name it.
I see Bernhard is in fine form:
MoA - Green-washing The Trade War With China (moonofalabama.org) - December 8
[BEGIN REPORT]
Under the Trump administration the U.S. launched a trade war against China. It started with various tariffs on Chinese products. The Biden administration topped that by using the flimsy pretext of alleged 'forced labor' in Xinjiang to make it more difficult to import goods from China. This contradicted Biden's plan for climate change as nearly all solar panels are made from raw materials found in Xinjiang. The trade war continued with the chip war against China's technological progress.
The tariffs and restriction run counter to the World Trade Agreement which the U.S. is increasingly willing to ignore.
The administration has now developed a new scheme that will use the pretext of climate change to wage an economic war against China's and other countries' steel and aluminum industries. To be more effective it is trying to get the European Union on board:
The Biden administration on Wednesday sent a proposal to the European Union suggesting the creation of an international consortium that would promote trade in metals produced with less carbon emissions, while imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum from China and elsewhere, according to a copy viewed by The New York Times.
...
The proposed group, known as the Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum, would wield the power of American and European markets to try to bolster domestic industries in a way that also mitigated climate change. To do so, member countries would jointly impose a series of tariffs against metals produced in environmentally harmful ways.
This is clearly not a policy to mitigate climate change but to limit free trade to the advantage of domestic industries.
The target of this effort is obviously China:
[REPORT CONTINUES]
Let's see what Brian Berletic has said recently about this. He's put up many videos about China. Here's something from two days ago:
China's "Century of Humiliation" & US-Chinese Tensions Today w/Carl Zha - YouTube
*********
"No narrative, no meme, no worry."
[laughing] E.B. Tucker. Interesting guy. Never heard him before. Never heard of him before. The Duran features him today. He gets off to an annoyingly slow start, and so far in the interview hasn't directly answered Alexander Mercouris' piercingly clear questions, but within a half hour I sort of got onto his wavelength.
Reserve currency, gold and inflation w/E.B. Tucker (Live) - YouTube
********
Monday, December 5
"Control trade, control freedom."
Sunday, December 4
"The mother of all stagflationary debt crises can be postponed, not avoided."
Roubini Warns "The Mother Of All Economic Crises Looms" | ZeroHedge
SATURDAY, DEC 03, 2022 - 10:30 AM
Authored by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate,
After years of ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit policies and the onset of major negative supply shocks, stagflationary pressures are now putting the squeeze on a massive mountain of public- and private-sector debt. The mother of all economic crises looms, and there will be little that policymakers can do about it.
In the private sector, the mountain of debt includes that of households (such as mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, personal loans), businesses and corporations (bank loans, bond debt, and private debt), and the financial sector (liabilities of bank and nonbank institutions). In the public sector, it includes central, provincial, and local government bonds and other formal liabilities, as well as implicit debts such as unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go pension schemes and health-care systems – all of which will continue to grow as societies age.
Just looking at explicit debts, the figures are staggering. Globally, total private- and public-sector debt as a share of GDP rose from 200% in 1999 to 350% in 2021. The ratio is now 420% across advanced economies, and 330% in China. In the United States, it is 420%, which is higher than during the Great Depression and after World War II.
Of course, debt can boost economic activity if borrowers invest in new capital (machinery, homes, public infrastructure) that yields returns higher than the cost of borrowing. But much borrowing goes simply to finance consumption spending above one’s income on a persistent basis – and that is a recipe for bankruptcy. Moreover, investments in “capital” can also be risky, whether the borrower is a household buying a home at an artificially inflated price, a corporation seeking to expand too quickly regardless of returns, or a government that is spending the money on “white elephants” (extravagant but useless infrastructure projects).
Such over-borrowing has been going on for decades, for various reasons. The democratization of finance has allowed income-strapped households to finance consumption with debt. Center-right governments have persistently cut taxes without also cutting spending, while center-left governments have spent generously on social programs that aren’t fully funded with sufficient higher taxes. And tax policies that favor debt over equity, abetted by central banks’ ultra-loose monetary and credit policies, has fueled a spike in borrowing in both the private and public sectors.
Years of quantitative easing (QE) and credit easing kept borrowing costs near zero, and in some cases even negative (as in Europe and Japan until recently). By 2020, negative-yielding dollar-equivalent public debt was $17 trillion, and in some Nordic countries, even mortgages had negative nominal interest rates.
The explosion of unsustainable debt ratios implied that many borrowers – households, corporations, banks, shadow banks, governments, and even entire countries – were insolvent “zombies” that were being propped up by low interest rates (which kept their debt-servicing costs manageable). During both the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis, many insolvent agents that would have gone bankrupt were rescued by zero- or negative-interest-rate policies, QE, and outright fiscal bailouts.
But now, inflation – fed by the same ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit policies – has ended this financial Dawn of the Dead. With central banks forced to increase interest rates in an effort to restore price stability, zombies are experiencing sharp increases in their debt-servicing costs. For many, this represents a triple whammy, because inflation is also eroding real household income and reducing the value of household assets, such as homes and stocks. The same goes for fragile and over-leveraged corporations, financial institutions, and governments: they face sharply rising borrowing costs, falling incomes and revenues, and declining asset values all at the same time.
Worse, these developments are coinciding with the return of stagflation (high inflation alongside weak growth). The last time advanced economies experienced such conditions was in the 1970s. But at least back then, debt ratios were very low. Today, we are facing the worst aspects of the 1970s (stagflationary shocks) alongside the worst aspects of the global financial crisis. And this time, we cannot simply cut interest rates to stimulate demand.
After all, the global economy is being battered by persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks that are reducing growth and increasing prices and production costs. These include the pandemic’s disruptions to the supply of labor and goods; the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on commodity prices; China’s increasingly disastrous zero-COVID policy; and a dozen other medium-term shocks – from climate change to geopolitical developments – that will create additional stagflationary pressures.
Unlike in the 2008 financial crisis and the early months of COVID-19, simply bailing out private and public agents with loose macro policies would pour more gasoline on the inflationary fire. That means there will be a hard landing – a deep, protracted recession – on top of a severe financial crisis. As asset bubbles burst, debt-servicing ratios spike, and inflation-adjusted incomes fall across households, corporations, and governments, the economic crisis and the financial crash will feed on each other.
To be sure, advanced economies that borrow in their own currency can use a bout of unexpected inflation to reduce the real value of some nominal long-term fixed-rate debt. With governments unwilling to raise taxes or cut spending to reduce their deficits, central-bank deficit monetization will once again be seen as the path of least resistance. But you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Once the inflation genie gets out of the bottle – which is what will happen when central banks abandon the fight in the face of the looming economic and financial crash – nominal and real borrowing costs will surge.
The mother of all stagflationary debt crises can be postponed, not avoided.
[END]
********
Tuesday, November 29
NYT admits Ukraine military in desperate situation in Bakhmut
Brian Berletic, reporting today from southern Thailand for The New Atlas, updates viewers on the situation in Bakhmut.
West Admits Ukraine's Bakhmut Setbacks + Boeing's Long-Range Rockets Proposed for Ukraine - YouTube
My comments:
When the Russians withdrew troops from Kherson, they simply transferred the troops, some of the best in their military, to support Wagner PMC in the battle for Bakhmut. But for months before then, Wagner has been moving very slowly and methodically to prevent Bakhmut from becoming another Mariupol.
The last thing the Russian command wants is another Azovstal factory-type siege. They've had to go building by building in outlying areas to prevent the Ukrainians from digging into another large facility. But now there is a snowball effect from the slow onslaught, which is daily leading to hundreds of dead and wounded Ukranian troops.
Looks like the situation is just going to have to play out because Nato and the US administration and it seems the British don't want to back down.
What about western Europe? Here are two short reports today from India's Firstpost:
But at this moment, Germany and the rest of the most influential EU members are continuing to back the American agenda in Ukraine. As to what will happen when Europe can no longer gulp record levels of Russian LNG, we'll just have to see.
As to whether anything will be left of Ukraine's military by then, well, it seems the Polish government is putting thousands iof its male citizens in Ukrainian military uniform and sending them off to Ukraine to get slaughtered. Once the Polish get tired of playing Russian Roulette, we'll see what happens next.
This is the 'We'll see' war, which finds most Nato members running around like chickens with their heads cut off because they didn't think through what Russia would be prepared to do if Nato kept pushing at its border.
*******
Monday, November 28
Water management principle, "Slow it, spread it, soak it."
Permaculture primer. Studying beavers. This farm cracked the code. Simple when you know how:
Sunday, November 27
"Ukraine is expendable."
Russia Ops in Ukraine (Update): Western Propaganda Implodes as War of Attrition Grinds On - YouTube
Years of war-watching have made me quite stoic but today's Ukraine war update from Brian Berletic of The New Atlas I found very disturbing. He goes into detail to analyze recent whoppers told by American and British propagandists about the war. In doing so, he makes it clear that this is no longer simply propaganda. It's arms-manufacturing sales pitch. As such, and applied to real warfare, it devalues all human life.
This can no longer be blamed only on the government and weapons manufacturers.
What is to become of us?
********
Skyrocketing U.S. energy costs
"Any country that can't provide hot water or heat in the winter isn't much of a country."
"We've reached the end of monetary policy's ability to tweak our economy.
Quotes are from Tucker Carlson's report yesterday.