Khan, who aspires to be the country’s next prime minister, said in a televised address to the nation that “thanks to God, we won and we were successful”.
“If God wills, we will set an example,” he said.
Pakistan’s election commission has not yet released official final results, but Khan has maintained a commanding lead according to projections by many television stations. It is still unclear, however, if his Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) will win a simple majority or have to form a coalition government.
Election officials said an official count confirming Pakistan’s next government was expected later in the evening. More than a dozen TV channels projected based on undisclosed methodologies that PTI would get as many as 119 seats of the 270 national assembly seats contested.
Before even half the votes were counted, Khan’s leading rival, Shahbaz Sharif, who heads the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), the party of the jailed former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, rejected the vote, generating fears that disgruntled losers could delay the formation of the next government.
... Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) secretary Babar Yaqoob told reporters early on Thursday that counting had been delayed by technical failures in an electronic reporting system and the tallying was now being conducted manually. The results had been due by 2 a.m. (2100 GMT).
“There’s no conspiracy, nor any pressure in delay of the results. The delay is being caused because the result transmission system has collapsed,” Yaqoob said.
He said he could not set an exact deadline when the full results would be released but it would be as soon as possible. ... [Reuters]
Dawn, Pakistan's oldest and most widely read English-language newspaper, has been live-blogging news on the vote counts as they're published. See the Dawn website for up to the minute reports and 'at a glance' election statistics; below are excerpts from their latest summary; no time stamp on the report but right now it's about 10:30 AM in the country. (The report has several more subsections than the ones I've posted; e.g, "Violence on Election Day.") As to the meaning of "Naya Pakistan" in the Dawn headline, it's a catchy pop tune dedicated to Imran Khan's party.
More than 15 hours after polling ended on Wednesday, the country is still awaiting final results from the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). While massive delays and allegations of rigging cast a shadow over the vote counting process, preliminary results indicated that Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) had obtained a clear edge over other parties.
Although PTI workers and supporters started celebrations before the final results, no statement — or even a tweet — has been issued by Imran Khan on his victory. His spokesperson Naeemul Haque, however, tweeted that the PTI chief will “address the nation” today at 2pm “in celebration and recognition of the massive support received from the people of Pakistan in the 2018 elections which was a contest between the forces of good and evil”.
According to AFP, Gallup Pakistan estimated voter turnout at between 50 to 55 per cent in an electorate of nearly 106 million — similar to the previous contest in 2013.
Based on reporting of 47 per cent of polling stations, PTI is leading on 114 National Assembly seats, while the PML-N trails behind with 64 and the PPP-Parliamentarians (PPP-P) is at third spot with 42 seats.
In Punjab, with preliminary results from 50pc polling stations available with ECP, PML-N is currently holding its lead on 129 provincial seats but PTI is closing in with a lead on 122 seats.
Meanwhile, PTI is clearly steering ahead in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with a lead on 64 seats against Muttahida Majlis–e–Amal (MMA), which is currently leading on 12 seats, as per reporting from 35pc polling stations in the province.
The preliminary results from 37pc polling stations in Sindh show PPP-P leading on 75 seats, followed by PTI on 22 seats.
In Balochistan, Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) is leading on 12 provincial seats, followed by Balochistan National Party (BNP) on 9 seats, based on unofficial results from 35pc polling stations.
According to Geo News, Awami National Party leader Ghulam Ahmed Bilour conceded defeat to PTI's Shaukat Ali, his competitor on Peshawar's NA-31 seat, saying: "The results indicate that Imran Khan is a favourite leader of the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. I am a democratic person and I admit the defeat."
Counting is still going on at the polling stations of different constituencies.
UNOFFICIAL RESULTS — 100% VOTE COUNT
PTI's Asad Umar wins NA-54 (Islamabad-III) with 56,945 votes; PML-N's Anjum Aqeel runner up with 32,991 votes.
MMA's Moulana Abdul Akbar Chitrali wins NA-1 (Chitral) with 26,133 votes; PTI's Abdul Latif runner up with 17,644 votes.
PTI's Malik Karamat Ali wins NA-135 (Lahore-XIII) with 54,765 votes; PML-N's Malik Saiful Malook runner up with 55,431 votes.
PTI's Junaid Akbar wins NA-8 (Malakand) with 81,310 votes; MMA's Gul Naseeb Khan runner up with 31,739 votes.
PPP-P's Syed Ayaz Ali Shah Serazi wins NA-231 (Sujawal) with 129,980 votes; MMA's Molvi Muhammad Saleh Al Hadad runner up with 11,177 votes.
PML-N's Muhammad Riaz wins NA-123 (Lahore) with 97,193 votes; PTI's Wajid Azeem runner up with 72,535 votes.
DELAY IN RESULTS
At a 4am press conference, the Election Commission of Pakistan said that "technical difficulties" were behind the unprecedented delay.
CEC Muhammad Raza Khan congratulated the people of Pakistan for participating in a "democratic polling process", and expressed gratitude for the polling staff across the country as well as the security personnel deployed on Wednesday.
“I am aware that the delay in announcement of results has caused some annoyance. But it [Results Transmission System (RTS)] was a new system and we were implementing it for the first time. Therefore, there was some delay,” said the CEC.
Regarding political parties' grievances about polling agents not being given Form 45 (the statement of vote count) by presiding officers, he said: "It is not possible that a polling agent was not given the form. If there are any genuine complaints, we will take strict action."
To a question of how he would respond to allegations of rigging in the election, the CEC confidently replied: "We will prove ourselves that we did our job right."
He announced what he called the "first non-official, preliminary result" of the elections: PTI's Chaudhry Adnan won PP-11 (Rawalpindi VI) with 43,089 votes.
Earlier, in the day ECP Secretary Babar Yaqoob rejected the notion that there was any 'conspiracy' behind the delay in transmission of elections results. "The only reason for delay was a technical fault in the Results Transmission System (RTS), which stopped working when thousands of polling officers began using it simultaneously," he clarified.
He made it clear that the election body had so far not released any official results. Yaqoob said that the complaints by political parties regarding katchi receipts were being addressed and action would be taken on all genuine complaints.
He added that the ECP is compiling results that have been received via scanned copies of Form 45 and it had set aside the RTS for the time being to expedite the collation of polling data.
Earlier, an ECP spokesperson had confirmed to DawnNewsTV that the delay was due to the breaking down of RTS, which is being run through a software powered by National Database and Registration Authority (Nadra).
According to data released by ECP, a total of 3,459 candidates — 1,623 from Punjab, 824 from Sindh, 725 from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 287 from Balochistan — were cleared to run for the 272 general seats of the national assembly. However, elections in two constituencies — NA-60, NA-108 — were later postponed by the commission.
A single party will need to bag at least 137 of the directly elected seats to be able to form the government on its own.
PML-N, PPP CRY FOUL
PML-N President Shahbaz Sharif at a mid-vote count press conference said his party rejects the poll results. In a tweet, he said the party had rejected the results "due to manifest and massive irregularities".
"Form-45 was not given to our agents, results were stopped and votes were counted in the absence of our polling agents. This is both unbearable and unacceptable," he said.
PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari also tweeted saying he had not received any official results from any constituency where he was contesting, despite it being past midnight. "My candidates [have been] complaining [that] polling agents have been thrown out of polling stations across the country. Inexcusable and outrageous."
PPP's Sherry Rehman also claimed that "there has been a clear trend of interference, in which all parties except one are being pushed to the wall".
"The whole election could be declared null and void considering just what has occurred over the last three hours," she said, adding that the party expects its complaints to be addressed by midnight.
PML-N spokesperson Marriyum Aurangzeb, while speaking to the media, raised objections over the counting process and alleged that the party's agents were being forced out from the polling sta
"The counting process is being carried out behind closed doors and changes are being made to Form-45,” Aurangzeb alleged while talking to media persons.
In response, the provincial election commissioner in Punjab categorically denied the allegations levelled by PML-N. “Political leaders should refrain from levelling such baseless allegations without having any substantial proof,” the ECP official said.
Explaining the process, the election commissioner clarified that only one polling agent of every party is allowed inside the polling station at the time of counting of votes.
PPP's Maula Bux Chandio alleged that his party's agents were not allowed inside polling stations in Badin while PSP leader Raza Haroon made the same claim about the treatment meted out to his party's agents at different polling stations across Karachi.
The PPP, according to APP, had registered over 240 complaints with the ECP regarding deliberate delay in the polling process to restrict maximum number of people to cast their votes, restriction of polling agents' presence during the vote counting process and non-provision of Form 45 by polling staff to the agents in time.
Colonel Lang's July 25 sitrep, which he modestly terms "notes," underscores the Syrian government's reconciliation strategy, which the Russian military followed when they came to Syria. The U.S., Britain and 'EU' tried to copy the strategy and apply it in Idlib Province but in vain. I think they have yet to realize that the strategy works for the Syrian government because Assad actually cares about the Syrian people -- all Syrians. The Americans et al. care about their agendas.
One observation re the Colonel's mention of the possibility of female Kurdish fighters being integrated into the regular Syrian army and that this would be "interesting." There are quite a number of Syrian women already in the army, although I don't know the nature of their participation in combat operations. I do recall that several of those women are highly trained snipers.
1. The SDF/SNC political arm is opening offices with government consent in several Syrian cities, among them Damascus itself. The goal in this is to negotiate political reconciliation with the government. If that happens then just about all of Syria east of the Euphrates River will return to government control. A lot of Syria's oil and gas reserves are out there.
If the previous pattern is followed the armed forces of the SDF would be integrated into the SAA. This would be very interesting. The SDF has a lot of volunteer Kurdish women soldiers who are actual and effective fighters. How the SAA would integrate them would be interesting to watch. Effectively, such a reconciliation would reunite the country except for the Turkish-occupied and coveted areas in the north but, as TTG suggests, Turkish ambitions have an uncertain future in north Syria.
Does Trump know about this political move? I think he must know and that the 'fix is in' on this with Putin. What do Mattis and CENTCOM think about this? Does it matter?
2. SAA forces in Quneitra and western Deraa provinces are cleaning up the remaining jihadis and other rebels. Elements of the Tiger Forces national offensive reserve + 9th Armored and 4th Armored Divisions + a lot of NDF militia are advancing south from the Quneitra City ruins (Israel did that in 1974) with their right flank IN the UNDOF DMZ.
The FSA unicorns have surrendered enough equipment to the SAA in the last couple of weeks to equip an additional armored brigade once the Syrian Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (SEME - my neologism) and the Rooshians work it over. Hey! We Americans under Obama's policy paid for all that! At last someone will know what to do with it.
The rebel IS affiliates in the black patch in the map are pretty well screwed. That area is called the Yarmuk Basin (Hud al Yarmuk- hard "H" - "Wow" - hard "D") It is agricultural land that slopes down through a few villages to the north bank of the Yarmuk River. Jordan starts on the south bank. The SAA and friends are going through this area without any problem -- "like s--t through a goose" as Patton would have said.
Amusingly "Khalid bin al Walid Brigade" is the moniker of the IS jihadis being overrun in the Yarmuk Basin. He was the Muslim commander at the decisive defeat of the Byzantines at the Battle of the Yarmuk. Both Bibi and Putin have said that once the Israelis' former IS allies are exterminated then the SAA must back out of the UNDOF DMZ. I suppose that will happen. pl
The (U.K.) Guardian is live-blogging the election. Good for them.
"Violence across country as millions go to the polls to decide between cricket legend Imran Khan and brother of disgraced former PM Nawaz Sharif for PM"
Over the course of the day, Pakistan’s 106 million registered voters will have the chance to choose new provincial assemblies, a new parliament, and potentially a new prime minister.
Violent attacks have already occurred across the country in the first few hours of voting.
At least 22 people have been killed in an apparent suicide bomb attack in Quetta, the troubled capital of the Balochistan province. Authorities have warned the death toll from this attack could rise further.
One person was killed and three injured after PTI supporters exchanged fire with those from the securalist Awami National Party (ANP) in Swabi, a city in the northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Police are also investigating a grenade attack in Larkana, in the southern province of Sindh, the home of the Bhutto family. No fatalities have been reported from this attack so far.
The election is seen as a two-horse race between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), which is led by Shehbaz Sharif, the brother of disgraced former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, led by former cricketer Imran Khan.
Many expect the vote to result in a hung parliament. If it does, some of the 27 smaller groups may hope to play kingmaker.
There have been allegations of military interference throughout the campaign period and there has been deadly violence including a suicide bomb that killed 132 people.
I'm not going to tell you the minute mark in the video where a reporter for ABC News Australia meets her in what's left of Raqqa. She makes her entrance soon enough. The reporter looked dumbfounded to come face to face with such courage and fortitude.
"The world has failed to change the Syrian regime and the US plan for a new Middle East is over. There is no meaning for any occupation forces to remain in the Levant and it is time for Syrians to lick their wounds -- and start all over again." -- From Elijah J. Magnier's latest analysis, featured below But first: Idlib or Bust, or not: Leith Fadel(Twitter):
7/23: I was informed last night that the Syrian Army is going to begin moving their forces to the Al-Ghaab Plain front and northern Latakia.
7/24, 3:10 AM: There was no mention of the Syrian Army pushing to Idlib. I don’t really see that happening because if that was the plan, they wouldn’t have agreed to evacuate Al-Fou’aa and Kafraya
Elijah Magnier (His website, English version):
7/24: "The last southern battle in Syria: finish off ISIS and then on, towards Idlib"
There are now so many Syrian War watchers it's gotten hard for Syrian battle commanders to pull off a feint. But from my read of Elijah's 7/24 analysis, I venture the resolution of differing opinions from Leith and Elijah's informed sources is that the Syrian army is getting all their ducks in a row before marching full-bore on Idlib, which will be the war's last major battle. That doesn't mean there won't be skirmishes between now and then in Idlib, but it seems the last big battle is tentatively slated for September. As to Elijah's conclusion that the U.S. plan for a new Middle East has failed -- the plan might be a bust but the U.S. is not going to fold its tents and go home, as Elijah's own report a day earlier about the American regime's present machinations in Iraq clearly indicates. Well. Here is the 7/24 analysis; I've highlighted one passage concerning U.S. actions. The last southern battle in Syria: finish off ISIS and then on, towards Idlib By Elijah J. Magnier July 24, 2018 ejmagnier.com/category/articles-in-english/
Southern Syria is surrendering to the forces of the Syrian army: deals have been concluded between the Syrian government and the militants, including jihadists belonging to Jabhat al-Nusra (aka Hayat Tahrir al-Sham). The main deal, supervised by the Russian forces, allows whoever is willing to go to the northern city of Idlib, which is becoming the largest gathering of jihadists, to join the caravan and board the green buses, carrying their personal light weapons. The Syrian army is facing a real logistic challenge, its forces did not expect the fall of the southern front so quickly. Therefore, the military command is asking militants and jihadists to stay in their villages until their turn comes to be evacuated or to be reconciled with the authorities.
The aim is also to prevent ISIS, occupying the enclave in al-Yarmouk Basin, from expanding its control over nearby abandoned villages where jihadists were based and are today unwilling to fight.
The only pocket remaining is the one of “Jaish Khaled bin al-Waleed”, ISIS-Huran, where the Syrian army and its allies have initiated an attack after surrounding the area from all sides, with the exception of the west flank bordering the 1974 line with Israel.
Although there is no time allocated to end the ISIS pocket, military commanders believe it might take less than two months to end ISIS’s control completely. That is also linked to the following battle expected in the north of Syria after the month of September, where preparations are ongoing for the biggest, last battle in Syria.
Russia is already preparing for its share in rural Lattakia and the high ground surrounding Jisr al-Shoughour and the Lattakia province under the control of Jabhat al-Nusra. The reason why the Russians are determined to liberate the area is mainly due to repetitive armed drone attacks against its main military base and airport in Hmaymeem, also the centre of coordination with Moscow.
The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Russia that the Astana deal will be in jeopardy if ever the deconfliction zone in Idlib is attacked. Turkey, Russia and Iran deployed 12 observation points along the deconfliction zone in rural Idlib to prevent ground attacks from Jihadists.
However, sources close to the Syrian President said “Bashar al-Assad will not abide by any deal with Turkey or the US that allows these two countries to occupy Syrian territory, even if Russia signed the deal”.
Assad and his allies – Iran and Hezbollah – believe they are capable of liberating the city of Idlib since most of Syria is now liberated. Therefore, Assad insists on liberating the occupied north and has asked his allies to be prepared to send more forces for the next operational stage.
Sources on the ground said “Hezbollah will be present with large forces to participate in the elimination of al-Qaeda and other foreign fighters and jihadists based in the north of Syria”.
Russia and Damascus have agreed to open safe corridors for all civilians willing to leave Idlib into the secured area under the Syrian army control or to reconcile with the government of Damascus as was the case for tens of thousands of militants all over Syria. The number of inhabitants of the city of Idlib is estimated to be around two million (1.5 before the war), including internally displaced refugees.
Russia wouldn’t mind seeing the Syrian army recover Idlib to protect eastern Aleppo and its rural area that is still under jihadist control. President Erdogan may show a lot of anger when the liberation of Idlib begins, due to his close ties with the militants and jihadists. However, all proxies have become a burden on their backers as the Syrian war is evolving.
Turkey would be happy to control the Kurdish area to prevent the Kurds from having their mini-state. The Kurds, the biggest losers in this war, have earned the animosity of both Erdogan and Assad due to their implicit approval of the partition of Syria and for allowing the US to use them as shield in north-east Syria.
The US forces occupy al-Hasaka and part of Deir-ezzour province. They have established military bases and airports and allowed Israel, according to sources in the area, to use the US military facilities to attack Syria and Iraq (Hashd al-Shaabi).
The battle of Idlib is not going to be a walkover since it is the last significant battle in Syria. Al-Qaeda and other jihadists and the thousands of foreign fighters are not expected to surrender. Russia vows to eliminate al-Qaeda unless Turkey finishes these off. It is most unlikely that President Erdogan will start a war against al-Qaeda, he who has supported them for years and allowed the jihadists to occupy Idlib years back. Nevertheless, it is a time for ending the war in Syria, and Turkey is no longer willing to keep these jihadists under its wing.
It is the last battle this year. The Syrian army shall not attack the US occupation forces face to face but will support local resistance if ever these forces don’t pull out. Once the battle of Idlib is over, Syria can begin “the mother and father of all battles”, reconciliation and reconstruction.
The world has failed to change the Syrian regime and the US plan for a new Middle East is over. There is no meaning for any occupation forces to remain in the Levant and it is time for Syrians to lick their wounds -- and start all over again.
This shooting down of a Syrian warplane by the Israelis today is bad behavior on the part of the Israeli defense force and reflects bad behavior on the part of the civilian Israeli leadership. Leave aside conflicting claims by the Syrian and Israeli governments about what happened. The Israelis knew that the Syrian air force was attacking Islamic State positions, which are deliberately placed as close as possible to the 'Separation of Forces' line in the attempt to thwart Russian and Syrian bombers. Yet an Israeli-U.S. bombing campaign, or even a joint Israeli-Russian campaign, or simply a U.S. campaign, would have routed the position without causing Israel to express worries about Syria violating the line. Why wasn't this done? From all I have seen of Israeli war policies in recent decades, I'd say the ultimate answer is that the Israeli civilian leadership has taken to throwing away every high card they've been dealt. In any case the Syrian pilot was killed, it seems during the plane crash. (AMN chief Leith Fadel reported earlier today on his Twitter page. "The video circulating of the alleged dead pilot is believed to be old," that is, it's probably not the pilot. No word yet that I've seen on the fate of the co-pilot but reportedly the plane crashed in IS-controlled terrain. Leith also reported today, at 6:54 AM: "Breaking: Syrian Army liberates Al-Bassali from Daesh in southern Al-Quneitra. SAA [Syrian Arab Army] is now at the gates of Saida, which is where the jet was believed to have crashed." ********
So many brave Syrians have been killed defending their country but this is the first time I have offered my sympathies on this blog to one of the families of the fallen. I do not believe there is any question even at this early stage that Col. Mare's killing is a war crime committed by a government that seems to have lost all conscience. But long after the government is forgotten, Syria will stand as a beacon of hope for the world and Syrians such as Col. ‘Umran Mare will have made it so. ********
7/23 JENS STOLTENBERG: Pundita, how are you? How is the weather in Washington? PUNDITA: Greetings Mr Stoltenberg. Congratulations on a very successful summit! I'm now on a do-it-yourself regimen because the last two blood pressure medications nearly killed me. As to the weather here, we have had so much rain for so many days we're trying to raise funds to build an ark. JS: Global warming. P: But exactly, which brings me to the subject of my call. The moderate rebels fleeing the Syrian army's advance have taken to blowing up their huge stockpiles of weapons and ammunition rather than have them fall into the hands of SAA. The SAA, as you may know, now has so much captured materiel it can afford to distribute some to Hezbollah and Iranian militias. JS: An unforeseen consequence. Very counterproductive. P: Well, not counterproductive for the Syrian military but from NATO's viewpoint, yes. More to the point the bonfires and tons of exploding ammo are putting huge amounts of highly toxic gunk into the atmosphere in the Middle East. JS: I see. Another unforeseen consequence. P: Exactly. By the way, have you read Robert Fisk's latest report for the Independent? It was published a few hours ago. JS: I haven't seen it, no. P: The title is, quote, "I traced missile casings in Syria back to their original sellers, so it’s time for the west to reveal who they sell arms to, end quote" The lede reads, quote, "I don’t think either Nato or the EU has the slightest interest in chasing the provenance of weapons in the hands of Islamist fighters in Syria or anywhere else in the Middle East," end quote. JS: I see. Another unforeseen consequence! P: Would you like me to read you one of the passages from the report that concerns NATO, a short passage? JS: Please. P: Quote, "Why don’t Nato track all these weapons as they leave Europe and America? Why don’t they expose the real end-users of these deadly shipments? The arms manufacturers I spoke to in the Balkans attested that Nato and the US are fully aware of the buyers of all their machine guns and mortars, end quote. JS: Which arms manufacturers did he speak with? P: Um, one was -- give me a moment to look at his earlier report -- BNT-TMiH. JS: Bosnia. P: Yes, he also spoke with one in Serbia. Begins with a Z, but that's a different report -- JS: Zastava? P: Something like that, yes. JS: What is the name of the report concerning the Bosnian factory? P: Quote, "A Bosnian signs off weapons he says are going to Saudi Arabia – but how did his signature turn up in Aleppo?" End quote. JS: When was it published? P: Three days ago. The manager at BNT-TMiH pointed him in the direction of the Saudis. But the people Fisk spoke with made it clear that if the Saudis weren't forthcoming with answers, which they were not, NATO and the EU commission could have answers. JS: I would need to see all the reports. P: Frankly I'm surprised that your assistants did not consider them important enough to forward you a summary. They are important reports, Mr Stoltenberg. Robert Fisk foraged in the ruins in East Aleppo and retrieved a trove of hard evidence in the form of paperwork. The evidence is troubling and the implications for NATO embarrassing, I should think. JS: More unforeseen consequences. Thank you, Pundita. P: No mention. Au revoir. ____ [turning in exasperation to Charlotte, who'd been making snuffling noises throughout the call] What?? No I wasn't lying. It wasn't about global warming in the first place, and for all I know Stoltenberg thinks it's a crock. No that's not lying either; it's artistic license. If I can get a word in edgewise I should like to point out there are wrongs other than lying. Like theft -- and I don't want to hear any more about property rights in possum society. Possum law relates to disputes between possums. Quote me the possum code covering charges of theft involving a human and a possum who's been living rent free for years in the human's garage and obtained possession of an item of the human's personal property under false pretenses. Hah! Now who's making things up? I want my Ouija board back.
"Unlike the past, where the military used to pack elected governments through direct interference or pick and choose by acting behind the scenes, this time it is the top judiciary and the accountability department — the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) — standing in the front row and believed to be targeting some while sparing others." Although I featured excerpts from the following analysis in my previous post, which focused on Sputnik's wide-ranging examination of factors influencing tomorrow's election, after a second read I decided to post the entire analysis. The caveats are that Daud Khattak, a Pakistani journalist, wrote the analysis before Nawaz Sharif's surprising and spectacular return to Pakistan on July 13, which as Sharif knew would happen got him promptly arrested. The other caveat is Khattak himself; his place of employment means he's writing from the American government's perspective on Pakistan's election -- as his credentials, posted at the end of the analysis, indicate. With all that said, I think he provides valuable insights. Pakistan's Bittersweet Election Season Instead of a celebration of democratic transfer of power, doubts are growing about interference in the political campaigns. By Daud Khattak July 03, 2018 The Diplomat
Uncertainty, doubts, and skepticism are on the rise as Pakistan inches toward its July 25 parliamentary elections, the most controversial in the country’s democratic history thanks to recurring direct and indirect interference by the powerful military.
There exists both hope and despair – hope of a third transfer of power from one elected government to another and despair because of the increasing role of the proverbial “invisible hand” that some observers and political analysts label as the “creeping coup.”
Unlike the past, where the military used to pack elected governments through direct interference or pick and choose by acting behind the scenes, this time it is the top judiciary and the accountability department — the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) — standing in the front row and believed to be targeting some, while sparing others.
Allegations from the aggrieved parties seldom get due space and air time in the print and electronic media. This proverbial fourth pillar of the state, once aspired to be the harbinger of change in terms of spreading awareness among the Pakistanis regarding their basic human and constitutional rights, has reportedly come under severe pressure. Pakistan’s media sector is observing the worst kind of self-censorship.
Some leading newspapers and television channels complain their circulation and broadcasts are being interrupted and their workers harassed because they fail to toe the line of the country’s intelligence agencies regarding the coverage of particular parties, groups, and persons or issues. Desperate to get their message through, the aggrieved parties turn to social media.
One latest example is social media video of a candidate of the Pakistan Muslim League of former premier Nawaz Sharif, who complained that intelligence officials pressured him to withdraw his candidacy and contest the election in an independent capacity.
Rana Iqbal Siraj, from the southern part of Punjab province, alleged that intelligence officials harassed and slapped him and when he refused to comply, they threatened to ruin his business. There was no public comment from the government or the intelligence agencies. However, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, speaking to media in London, where he stays to take care of his ailing wife, alleged that Rana Iqbal was bullied by “ISI operatives.”
This was the first time Sharif mentioned the country’s prime intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI, by name in a tirade since his disqualification from office by the top judiciary in July last year. Sharif, his family members, and close associates have been under serious pressure from courts and the accountability department since then. It merits a mention here that Rana Iqbal withdrew his statement later, saying that the “men who slapped and harassed me were from the agriculture department.”
Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PML-N, enjoys a considerable support base in his native Punjab province, the richest and most populous of Pakistan’s four federating units. Observers believe the party may easily register a majority if given a level playing field in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
However, Sharif’s vendetta with the military on issues pertaining to relations with India and Afghanistan and his objections to the security establishment’s policy regarding armed networks and groups made him a persona non grata for the military. Many in Pakistan now believe the armed forces are staying firm behind the country’s top judiciary to keep the pressure on Sharif and his close associates.
While Sharif’s opponents take his allegations with a pinch of salt, the majority of the plainspoken commentators believe his argument is not without solid ground.
The disqualification of Sharif’s outspoken associate Daniyal Aziz from contesting the July 25 election by the courts, the arrest (without proper investigation) of another of PML-N’s strong candidates, Qamar Islam Raja, by the accountability department, the regular summoning of Sharif’s younger brother Shehbaz Sharif and former railway minister Saad Rafiq to NAB offices, and the pending cases against another outspoken candidate, Talal Chaudhry, are construed as part of the alleged game to diminish Sharif’s popularity and squeeze his popular support base.
Adding to the woes of PML-N, seven other strong candidates recently declined their affiliation with the party by opting to contest the upcoming polls as independent candidates. Several others from southern Punjab had already parted ways with PML-N to join the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.
Changing loyalties ahead of the election to take side with the potential winners is not something new in Pakistan, but observers believe the large scale defections from PML-N at a time when the party’s popularity still stands higher than its rivals can be chalked up to an external element, what they call the proverbial “invisible hand.”
While the top judge and the NAB chief have time and again clarified their positions about being apolitical and unbiased, no visible action either by the courts or the accountability department has been taken against Sharif’s opponents, the PTI of former cricket star Imran Khan in particular. To many, this is proof that the PML-N is being singled out for political reasons.
Khan, whose hankering for the prime minister post can be fulfilled only when the elder Sharif stays out of the game, shares a desire with the security establishment to close Sharif’s chapter.
Khan used to speak to activists during his 2014 sit-in protests in Islamabad about “umpire ki ungli” or the umpire’s finger, a cricket term that refers to the dismissal of a batsman. For Khan, then-army chief General Raheel Sharif was the umpire while Nawaz Sharif, then prime minister, was the hapless batsman, whose fate, according to Khan, depended on the raising of the army chief’s finger.
Khan’s PTI and Sharif’s PML-N are the leading hopefuls in the July 25 polls, but Sharif’s absence from the scene and courts actions against his family members and key associates weeks ahead of the elections raise question marks about the movers and shakers in Pakistan’s political arena.
Alleged pressure on the media about the unwritten code of “dos” and “don’ts” enforced with various degrees of intimidation and coercion creates more questions and doubts. While media offices, like the leading political parties (except for PTI), are unhappy with whatever is happening ahead of the polls, none of them dare to challenge the so-called “invisible hand” lest they also meet the fate handed out to Nawaz Sharif.
The enforced silence is killing Pakistan’s hope, at least for the time being, for strengthening its democracy which was getting roots with the third transfer of power from one elected government to another. The country still has a long road to achieve that goalpost.
Daud Khattak is Senior Editor for Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty’s Pashto language Mashaal Radio. Before joining RFE/RL, Khattak worked for The News International and London’s Sunday Times in Peshawar, Pakistan. He has also worked for Pajhwok Afghan News in Kabul. The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not represent those of RFE/RL. [END ANALYSIS] *********
Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif, arrested July 13 on his surprise return to Pakistan from London after he was sentencedin absentia to 10 years in prison and fined $10.5m on what are pretty shaky corruption charges (for a Pakistani politician). He remains in prison, allegedly at the behest of the ISI, and will remain there at least until the election is over.
Quotes from the following report:
"[Nawaz Sharif's] PML-N was in large part asking for political support as a protest vote against the military's control over politics. The PML-N's rivals and primary challengers, the PTI [headed by Imran Khan] are widely seen as the party of the military in Pakistani politics, the professor noted."
"Khan is on record as being far more critical of the US — not anti-American, but anti-American policies, he says — than any of the other politicians, Weinbaum pointed out. He's also seen as being soft on the Pakistani Taliban. Likewise, a Khan victory could further sour relations with India, as well as undo the slow gains made between the Pakistani and Afghan governments in recent years."
"Analysts agree that the election will be close. Sabena Siddiqui, a Foreign Affairs journalist who spoke with Trendstorm, predicted a hung Parliament, meaning that no party will either win an absolute majority or be able to form a majority coalition."
Pakistan faces numerous challenges going into its parliamentary elections on July 25, an academic expert told Sputnik News, and the “political and economic crisis coming together” will only “spur more instability rather than resolving differences.”
Sputnik Radio's By Any Means Necessary spoke with Dr. Marvin Weinbaum, director of Afghanistan and Pakistan studies at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, about several of the key players and issues at stake in the sixth most populous country on the planet going into Wednesday's vote.
[recording of the interview]
The Political Field
The main parties at play are the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by Nawaz Sharif; Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf [Pakistan Movement for Justice] (PTI), led by cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan; and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. Another smaller party is Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), an alliance of right-wing religious parties, Al Jazeera reported.
Sharif, elected in 2013, resigned in July 2017 after the Supreme Court of Pakistan unanimously voted to disqualify him for public office following corruption revelations connected to the Panama Papers leak, BBC reported at the time.
When Sharif resigned, he was replaced by another member of his own PML-N party, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. Nasirul Mulk became the caretaker prime minister on June 1 to the agreement of all parties, a special, politically neutral appointment in Pakistani politics designed to ensure free and fair elections occur once Parliament is dissolved, Dawn reported at the time.
Sharif remains the leader of PML-N; however, Sharif and his daughter, Maryam, were arrested July 13 after returning to Pakistan from London, the Independent reported. He was sentenced to 10 years in prison, and she to seven, for corruption. Many believe his return in the face of arrest was a political gamble designed to elicit sympathy from voters.
Weinbaum echoed that sentiment to hosts Eugene Puryear and Sean Blackmon, noting that the PML-N was in large part asking for political support as a protest vote against the military's control over politics. The PML-N's rivals and primary challengers, the PTI, are widely seen as the party of the military in Pakistani politics, the professor noted.
Sputnik News' Andrew Korybko noted on Trendstorm on Saturday that PML-N has cast Sharif's arrest as a witch hunt hatched by the military to tip the elections in Khan's favor. With more than 105 million eligible voters electing candidates for 272 directly elected and 70 reserved National Assembly seats across the country, there's a lot at stake. A majority of 137 of the directly elected seats is needed to form a government [emphasis mine], although the prospect of a single party winning an absolute majority by itself is very unlikely.
The Day of Decision
Analysts agree that the election will be close.
Sabena Siddiqui, a Foreign Affairs journalist who spoke with Trendstorm, predicted a hung Parliament, meaning that no party will either win an absolute majority or be able to form a majority coalition.
Likewise, Weinbaum told By Any Means Necessary that nobody will have a majority, which creates the opportunity for kingmakers to sway politics from the sidelines, whether they be smaller political parties whose demands will have to be shown concern in the formation of a coalition or extra-electoral factors like the judiciary or military. More nefarious methods of influence such as intimidation, bribery or worse might push parties into joining one of the primary coalitions.
The military has actually had formal responsibility for power — that is, through coup — for a little less than half of the time of the country's existence," Weinbaum noted. "So, the military has been a major player in Pakistan's political life since 1947, although it didn't really come into its own as a political force until the 1950s."
"But even when the military has not been formally holding power, when there have been civilian governments, elected civilian governments, they've always had enormous influence on what happens, particularly in reserving for themselves all policies having to do with security and foreign policy. And also, a veto of sorts over those policies, domestic policies, which impinged on the military itself, above all, the military's budget," Weinbaum said.
"So, they have always been in a position, working through others… they still have this ability to influence politics and influence elections. And one of the charges being made now against the military is that it has stifled the free media — and there is a large media, print and electronic media presence in the country — and they have claimed that they are being forced here to stand within certain boundaries about what they could say, what they could report. So, it's really very widespread, their influence." [1]
Weinbaum noted that "on the other hand, they are an institution of the country which has the respect of most Pakistanis. They are viewed as less corrupt — except when they're in power, they get that charge thrown at them." Khan, leader of the PTI, seen as the military's primary arm in politics, has made a name for himself as an anti-corruption crusader and pushed for the prosecution of Sharif.
"The bottom line here is they have succeeded in convincing people that Pakistan is in danger, principally from India, of course, and they are what provide security and the survival of the state, and therefore they get this deference. But… the military does have a well educated officer corps. It is a formidable organization. It is also an economic organization. It has economic holdings which make it a powerful player in the economy. So you get this ubiquitous influence of the military across the entire political system."
There is also the question of violence in the election. Two terrorist attacks killed hundreds in western Pakistan in mid-July; one killed five and injured 37 in the northwestern town of Bannu, and a suicide bomber in Mastung in Balochistan killed 149 people, including Siraj Raisani, a nationalist leader, and injured at least 200 others, the Independent reported. Violence has also been reported against many other candidates, including many transgender candidates, forcing them to withdraw their challenges for public office, Al Jazeera reported.
Siddiqui noted that the attacks were an attempt to intimidate people into not challenging the status quo, and were in particular directed against ethnic nationalist leaders and minorities. [emphasis mine]
Historic First: Transgender Candidates, Voters
Another factor in Pakistan's elections that makes them historic is that this is the first national election since transgender people were given civil rights protections earlier this year.
The Transgender Persons (Protection of Rights) Bill 2018, passed in early May, was championed by the PPP, Sputnik reported. Among the numerous protections it extended to transgender and khawaja sira, or third gender people, were the right to vote in elections for all levels of government and an equal right to pursue public office. As a result, several transgender Pakistanis signed up to run in local and national elections.
However, their wave of enthusiasm was dampened by the realization that many trans candidates could not register as transgender in their candidacy forms, spurring renewed cries of discrimination and hypocrisy on the part of the government. "Since our different identity is not being accepted, hence there is no use of contesting the elections," said Neeli Rana, field supervisor at the Khawaja Sira Society. A transgender boycott was announced early last month, and most of the candidates withdrew from the election, Sputnik reported.
Five trans women remain the running for Wednesday's election, Pink News reported Monday. Nayyab Ali, Nadeem Kashish, Lubna Lal, Alamgir (aka Maria) and Zahid Khan (aka Resham) will take part in the July 25 vote. Three of them are running for the National Assembly, and the others are running in provincial elections.
In addition, Pakistan's roughly 500,000 transgender people will be able to vote in these elections for the first time, Al Jazeera reported.
[Pundita note: I sense the wave of enthusiasm for the transgender issue has something to do with the U.S. Department of State's activities in Pakistan.] What Comes After?
But the question of the outcome is just as important as the event itself. If the PTI wins, Pakistan's relationship with the US could change.
Khan is on record as being far more critical of the US — not anti-American, but anti-American-policies, he says — than any of the other politicians, Weinbaum pointed out. He's also seen as being soft on the Pakistani Taliban. Likewise, a Khan victory could further sour relations with India, as well as undo the slow gains made between the Pakistani and Afghan governments in recent years.
In terms of China, which calls Pakistan calls its all-weather friend, Siddiqui emphasized the incredible importance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and other mega-projects that require both regional stability and political continuity — although she was careful not to imply that this meant the same people in office — such as water conservation projects and dams.
"A period of real political disruption" is in store for Pakistan, Weinbaum says. "On top of the fact that the economy is also in crisis ... because of a variety of developments around the fact that it is deeply in debt and has a poor trade balance, a very low reserve currency, foreign reserve currency … We've got a political and economic crisis coming together."
"The election will spur more instability rather than resolving differences."
[END REPORT] 1) The following analysis, written before Sharif's return to Pakistan, is dated in that respect but it's a wider window on the media issue that Sputnik's wide-ranging analysis could only touch on. Here I've only provided a few passages from the analysis. From the punch line to the anecdote one might reasonably ask whether anything has really changed in Pakistan. Certainly not when it comes to the long reach of the ISI. From Pakistan's Bittersweet Election Season by Daud Khattak for The Diplomat, July 3:
... Allegations from the aggrieved parties seldom get due space and air time in the print and electronic media. This proverbial fourth pillar of the state, once aspired to be the harbinger of change in terms of spreading awareness among the Pakistanis regarding their basic human and constitutional rights, has reportedly come under severe pressure. Pakistan’s media sector is observing the worst kind of self-censorship.
Some leading newspapers and television channels complain their circulation and broadcasts are being interrupted and their workers harassed because they fail to toe the line of the country’s intelligence agencies regarding the coverage of particular parties, groups, and persons or issues. Desperate to get their message through, the aggrieved parties turn to social media.
One latest example is a social media video of a candidate of the Pakistan Muslim League of former premier Nawaz Sharif, who complained that intelligence officials pressured him to withdraw his candidacy and contest the election in an independent capacity.
Rana Iqbal Siraj, from the southern part of Punjab province, alleged that intelligence officials harassed and slapped him and when he refused to comply, they threatened to ruin his business. There was no public comment from the government or the intelligence agencies. However, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, speaking to media in London, where he stays to take care of his ailing wife, alleged that Rana Iqbal was bullied by “ISI operatives.”
This was the first time Sharif mentioned the country’s prime intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI, by name in a tirade since his disqualification from office by the top judiciary in July last year. Sharif, his family members, and close associates have been under serious pressure from courts and the accountability department since then.
It merits a mention here that Rana Iqbal withdrew his statement later, saying that the “men who slapped and harassed me were from the agriculture department.” ...
