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Wednesday, January 8

NATO Iraq drawdown in wake of Soleimani assassination

Some NATO troops are leaving Iraq.
January 7, 2020
The New York Times

NATO is removing some of the trainers who have been working with Iraqi soldiers battling the Islamic State, in the wake of the American killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani. NATO has had roughly 500 soldiers doing the training.
On Monday, the NATO secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, announced that training had been temporarily suspended.
Describing security of NATO personnel, the organization said in a statement that it would be taking precautions — including “the temporary repositioning of some personnel to different locations both inside and outside Iraq.’’
NATO “maintains a presence in Iraq’’ and remains committed “to fighting international terrorism,” an official said, but refused to provide “operational details’’ about troop movements.
Some NATO countries, like Canada, Germany and Croatia, have announced that they are moving troops out of Iraq altogether, at least temporarily, because of security concerns.
Canada is temporarily moving to Kuwait some of its 500 military personnel based in Iraq, the country’s top military official, Gen. Jonathan Vance, said in a letter posted on Twitter on Tuesday.
Thirty of the 120 German soldiers in Iraq will be sent to Jordan and Kuwait, while others will remain positioned in the less volatile Kurdistan region, the German defense and foreign ministries said in a joint letter to the German parliament, the Bundestag.
“When the training is able to resume, the military personnel can be reinstated,” the letter said.
Croatia has also moved its small contingent of soldiers — 14 — from Iraq, with seven bound for Kuwait and the rest headed home, the Croatian Defense Ministry said. Slovakia has also removed its seven soldiers.
Some NATO troops began leaving Baghdad’s Green Zone in helicopters Monday night. The NATO training mission began in 2018 at Iraq’s request.
[END REPORT]
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Tuesday, January 7

Trump pretended to support Soleimani's peace mission.Then he killed him.


"IRAQI PRIME MINISTER: SOLEIMANI ARRIVED IN BAGHDAD TO RECEIVE DE-ESCALATION PROPOSAL FROM SAUDI ARABIA. TRUMP SUPPORTED INITIATIVE"
January 5, 2020
SouthFront

On January 5, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi reportedly provided additional details into the US assassination of the commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Qods Force, Qassem Soleimani. 
According to the available data, the Iranian commander arrived in Baghdad under an official request from Iraq. He was set to receive de-escalation proposals that Saudi Arabia sent to Iran via Iraq. US President Donald Trump allegedly supported this idea during a phone call with the Iraqi Prime Minister. 
Therefore, the US supposedly used this initiative to set a trap for the Iranian military commander and assassinate him.
[...]
If these developments are confirmed, this will be another indication of the destructive behavior of the modern United States. Washington has been violating international laws and breaking deals that it signs on a regular basis. Now, any negotiations that involve or linked with the United States also may pose a [mortal] threat to representatives of the parties involved.
[END REPORT]
The developments are already confirmed, unless one is waiting for the U.S. government to confirm what Abdul-Mahdi said.
From the 1/6 Grayzone Project report: "Abdul-Mahdi said that Trump personally thanked him for the efforts, even as he was planning the hit on Soleimani – thus creating the impression that the Iranian general was safe to travel to Baghdad."

For information about the photograph of devil's horns (in the Persian Gulf), see this report from The (U.K.) Sun.
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Devil Horns Fanta Morgana in Persian Gulf


Talk about an omen:

DAWN OF EVIL 

Incredible ‘red devil horns’ sunrise photos captured during rare solar eclipse mirage over the Persian Gulf


THESE incredible images appear to show giant devil horns rising over the Persian Gulf during a solar eclipse.
A photographer waited in just the right place to snap the rare spectacle as the sun was partially blocked by the moon at dawn.
Elias Chasiotis had planned on capturing the solar eclipse on December 26 while on holiday in Al Wakrah, Qatar.
And he knew because it came at sunrise he had a chance to capture an even rarer phenomenon - a solar eclipse combined with the light-bending mirage effects seen near the surface of the ocean.
He told BoredPanda: "I hoped that optical effects like inferior mirage would be visible and I was lucky enough to capture them."
This type of mirage over the ocean is called Fata Morgana and occurs when rays of light are bent when they pass through air layers of different temperatures.
It is named after the Arthurian sorceress Morgan le Fay because it was once believed the mirages they were fairy castle created by her witchcraft to lure sailors to their death.
Elias added: "I was worried that nothing would come out of the eclipse.
"However, when the sun finally began to rise, it looked like two separate pieces, some sort of red horns piercing the sea."
[END REPORT - See The Sun website for more photos of the extraordinary event]
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"Second Wave of Missile Attacks Fired Against US Targets in Iraq - Iranian Media

"Operation Martyr Soleimani" launches


See this Sputnik report for news and updates on the first wave of the attack.

Sputnik

A second series of rockets have been launched toward US targets in Iraq, shortly after dozens of missiles struck US military facilities in the area earlier Wednesday morning local time, according to Iranian media reports.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) has once again warned allies in the US against getting involved in their operation - dubbed "Martyr Soleimani" - and have threatened possible retaliation, according to Tehran-based Tasnim News Agency. 
Around five rockets have struck Camp Taji - a US coalition base located 27 kilometers north of Baghdad, Iraq - according to a military source cited by VOA News' Carla Babb.
A military source from Tehran told Sputnik that Iranian military jets are airborne and currently flying in border areas as the operation takes place. 
Earlier Wednesday morning, approximately 35 missiles were launched and struck US targets in Erbil, Iraq and the country's Ayn al-Asad Air Base, which houses US military forces. 
[END REPORT]
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Live Updates: Iran Launches Ballistic Missile Volleys at US Forces in Iraq

Credit...Nasser Nasser/Associated Press via The New York Times

From The NYT, report updated 5 minutes ago: 
Hossein Soleimani, the editor in chief of Mashregh, the main Revolutionary Guards news website, said that more than 30 ballistic missiles had been fired at the American base at Asad, in Anbar Province, in western Iraq. An American base in Erbil, in northern Iraq, was also attacked. ..."
No casualties reported by the Times, but a Sputnik update  below mentions unknown an unspecified number of casualties among Iraqis at the Asad base.

Sputnik
03:59 08.01.2020 (updated 04:27 08.01.2020)

On Wednesday morning, approximately 35 missiles were launched by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) striking US targets in Erbil, Iraq and the country's Ayn al-Asad Air Base, which houses US military forces. 


Later, a second series of rockets was launched toward US targets in Iraq, according to Iranian media reports. According to a military source cited by VOA News' Carla Babb, around five rockets have struck Camp Taji - a US coalition base located 27 kilometres north of Baghdad.
Iranian Press TV said IRGC had warned that US regional allies would be attacked if their territories and bases are used by the United States to launch attacks against Iran.
Last week, Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike ordered by US President Donald Trump at the Baghdad International Airport, with his assassination dramatically escalating tensions in the Middle East. In response, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani swore that Tehran would avenge his death.
SPUTNIK UPDATES
  • 04:43

    US Federal Aviation Authority Bans Flights Over Persian Gulf Due to Heightened Military Activities

    "Certain flights… are prohibited from operating in the overwater airspace above the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman due to heightened military activities," the FAA said in a notice on Tuesday.
  • 04:42

    Ministers Leave White House as Their Talks With Trump Are Over - CNN

  • 04:40

    Trump Will Not Deliver Address to Nation on Tuesday Night - CNN

  • 04:31

    Israel's Air Force, Air Defence on High Alert Amid the Attacks - Al Arabiya

    • 04:27

      Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei Arrives at Iranian Operations HQ to Track the Attacks - Reports

      Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has arrived at the Iranian operations headquarters to coordinate attacks on US facilities in Iraq, MSNBC reports citing Iranian State TV.
    • 04:10

      US Forces in Syria on High Alert, Moving to Base Close to Iraqi Border - Reports

      US Forces in eastern Syrian Deir ez-Zur province are on high alert and started moving to the military base close to the Iraqi border, following the attack, state-run Syria TV reported.
      Syria TV also said that they received information regarding the beginning of an evacuation of US forces from the Al-Omar oil field and the Conoco gas field. US troops are on their way to the military base near Ash Shaddadi town in Hasakah province.
      • 04:03

        Preparations Underway for Trump to Possibly Address Nation From Oval Office - Reports

        Preparations are underway for US President Donald Trump to address the American people from the Oval Office, CNN reported.
      • 04:02

        Pompeo, Esper Arrive at White House in the Wake of the Attack - Reports

        US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary Mark Esper arrived at the White House in the wake of a missile attack on American forces in Iraq, CNN reported.
      • 04:00

        Casualties Among Iraqis Following the Attack - Reports

        There are casualties among the Iraqis after the Iranian attack on the US Ain Al Asad Airbase in western Iraq, CNN reported on Wednesday, citing a security source.
        No further information is provided on the number of casualties or were the victims killed or wounded.
[END REPORT]

Massive anti-US protests in India's capital to response to Soleimani's murder

Photos: RISHIKESH KUMAR/Sputnik

See the Sputnik report for video footage of the protests. 

Security forces stopped the throngs before they reached the U.S. embassy in New Delhi, but one report is that the embassy was shut as a precaution. Here's the India Today report, posted today at 16:09 IST: 
Red flag anti-US march in Delhi demands revenge for Qassem Soleimani killing
A massive anti-US march was carried out Tuesday in New Delhi in protest of the killing of top Iranian commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike in Baghdad, Iraq.
The plan was for the protest march to end outside the US Embassy, but it was stopped halfway by the authorities for security reasons.
The protests were led by prominent Shia cleric Maulana Kalbe Jawad Naqvi, and Mehmood Pracha.
One of the protesters explained the significance of the red flag.
"In ancient times, when tribes would go to war and the leader of one of the tribes was killed then that tribe would raise a red flag declaring war against the killers of their chief. This red flag signifies our demand for revenge against America," he said.
Earlier, the American Embassy issued a demonstration alert’ for its citizens to stay away from the embassy area for their own safety.
[...]
The killing of Qassem Soleimani has evoked protests and demonstrations against the US across the globe, particularly in countries with Shia populations.
With India having a substantial number of Shia community members as its citizens, the MEA is looking at the sensitivity of the increasing tensions between the US and Iran.
This also comes at a time when Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is due to visit India for the Raisina Dialogue, where he is likely to take the stage and the opportunity to hit out at America. [The dialogue, held from January 14-16, will be attended by foreign ministers from around the world.]
He will also have a separate bilateral meeting with his Indian counterpart, S Jaishankar.
IRAN-US TENSIONS | 'India must reach out to various regional players to ensure restraint'
[END REPORT]
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Unlikely Soleimani was plotting violence against US. Why then was he killed?

The intel that Qassem Soleimani was plotting violence against the U.S. was "razor thin" according to one well-placed American analyst, and everything known about Soleimani's recent actions suggests that he counseled negotiations with the U.S. government.  

I think there was more than one reason that the American president ordered his assassination. But I believe the chief reason is one that isn't spoken about, at least not in public. I believe the president had Soleimani killed chiefly to send a message to all governments that were getting on better terms with Tehran. Such governments, in President Trump's view, were openly defying his authority in international relations, and in doing so were giving clear signs they were wandering off the American reservation while on his watch. 

The list of offenders is quite long; it includes the most powerful European governments, Gulf Sunni Arab ones, and India. Not to mention China and Russia openly flaunting their relationship with Iran with their recent joint naval drills, and Iraq's government often siding with Iran against the U.S.  

Something had to be done to emphasize to all concerned that those who stood against the United States would regret it. Openly murdering Iran's greatest hero was one way to send the message, if one thinks like Mr Trump, who strikes me as obsessed with maintaining face.

As to whether I agree with Elijah Magnier's analysis, which is that fragmentation in the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' led to Soleimani's death -- well, I am in no position to disagree with any single part of his analysis; he is very knowledgeable about the politics of the Levant and Iran, and has good sources. But I would enjoin him to look at the picture from Washington's viewpoint. In any case, I recommend his report because it provides insights on how Soleimani thought.

I also recommend the parts of Bernhard's  January 6 essay for Moon of Alabama where he corrects the record:
[...]
In their descriptions of Qassem Soleimani U.S. media fail to mention that Soleimani and the U.S. fought on the same side. In 2001 Iran supported the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. It used its good relations with the Hazara Militia and the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, which both the CIA and Iran had supplied for years, to support the U.S. operation. The Wikipedia entry for the 2001 uprising in Herat lists U.S. General Tommy Franks and General Qassem Soleimani as allied commanders.
In 2015 the U.S. and Iran again collaborated. This time to defeat ISIS in Iraq. During the battle to liberate Tikrit the U.S. air force flew in support of General Soleimani's ground forces. Newsweek reported at that time:
While western nations, including the U.S., were slow to react to ISIS's march across northern Iraq, Soleimani was quick to play a more public role in Tehran's efforts to tackle the terror group. For example, the commander was seen in pictures with militiamen in the northern Iraqi town of Amerli when it was recaptured from ISIS last September.
...
Top U.S. general Martin Dempsey has said that the involvement of Iran in the fight against ISIS in Iraq could be a positive step, as long as the situation does not descend into sectarianism, because of fears surrounding how Shia militias may treat the remaining Sunni population of Tikrit if it is recaptured. The military chief also claimed that almost two thirds of the 30,000 offensive were Iranian-backed militiamen, meaning that without Iranian assistance and Soleimani's guidance, the offensive on Tikrit may not have been possible.
It is deplorable that U.S. media and politicians blame Soleimani for U.S. casualties during the invasion of Iraq. Shia groups caused only 17% of all U.S. casualties and fought, like the Sadr Brigades, without support from Iran. There are also revived claims that Iran provided the Iraqi resistance with Explosive Formed Penetrators used in roadside bombs. But that claim had been proven to be was false more than 12 years ago.
[...] 
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Monday, January 6

Israel was not involved in Soleimani's murder

I thought that was likely from the tone of Debkafile's initial report on the incident; now comes verification, although the Israelis might have provided some intelligence to the US on Soleimani's movements, if I recall from the Debkafile report. 

Netanyahu backs away from Soleimani assassination, warns ministers to ‘stay out’ of purely ‘American event’
By Helen Buyniski
January 7. 2020
RT

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly warned his cabinet not to get too involved in the US murder of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, lest Tel Aviv gets dragged into the escalating conflict between Washington and Tehran.

“The assassination of Soleimani isn't an Israeli event but an American event. We were not involved and should not be dragged into it,” Netanyahu reportedly told his security cabinet during a meeting on Monday, as cited by Israel's Channel 13. He advised ministers to avoid speaking to the media about Thursday's targeted assassination beyond supporting the US right to defend itself, so as not to give the impression that Israel had played any role in it.

The directors of Mossad and military intelligence reassured the ministers that the likelihood of a retaliatory attack is low, since "Israel stayed at a distance from the incident," and that Iran will begin planning its reciprocal move on Tuesday following the conclusion of the national mourning period for Soleimani, according to the same sources.

Netanyahu’s sudden reticence is particularly notable because he has been advocating a US-Iran conflict for much of his political career. For over 20 years, he has insisted that the Islamic republic was just steps away from producing nuclear weapons, even when Israeli intelligence publicly argued otherwise.

The Israeli PM was also front and center in the run-up to the most recent Iraq War, warning the US Congress in 2002 that Saddam Hussein had "weapons of mass destruction" – including pursuing atomic bombs – which turned out not to exist at all.

Just last year, Netanyahu was urging the US and its Middle Eastern allies to take up the cause of war against Iran, emboldened by US President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal and re-impose crippling sanctions against Tehran, despite its compliance with the agreement.

However, the overt US killing of a military commander who was apparently very popular in Iran has provoked serious talk of retribution, not just in Tehran, but among the Hezbollah – the Lebanese Shia militia that boasts of fighting Israel to a draw in 2006 – as well.

Netanyahu has had a tough 2019, clinging onto the post of PM in a purely technical mandate after two elections mere months apart delivered a hung Knesset and required an unprecedented third, coming this spring. Talking a tough game against Iran in order to get Israeli votes is one thing, but facing the real possibility of being the target of Iranian missiles is apparently quite another.


[END REPORT]

I think Bibi is less concerned about being targeted by Iranian missiles and more with the response from top European leaders' to what was in effect an American act of war against Iran -- and Iraq -- at a time the Europeans were trying hard to smooth relations with Tehran's leaders.  Bibi needs as much support from the Europeans as he can get right now.  And of course the Europeans don't want their troops in Iraq targeted in revenge for Soleimani's death.

It's rare for RT to give a reporter a byline, by the way. 

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US SecDef disavows letter saying US forces would quit Iraq

"The letter was signed by a U.S. official on Pentagon letterhead, making it unclear whether it applied to forces from the 76 countries which make up the international coalition. ... An Iraqi defense official confirmed the letter was real and had been delivered."

The (U.K.) Daily Mail has the clearest explanation of the muddle as it stands at this moment:

"BREAKING NEWS: Chaos over U.S. troops in Iraq as Pentagon insists they WON'T withdraw despite general leading anti-ISIS coalition saying they'll move 'out of Iraq' in draft letter released by mistake amid anger over attack that killed Qassem Soleimani

  • General in charge of U.S. coalition forces in Iraq tells military counterpart to prepare for helicopter flights as troops pull up stakes
  • Letter says troops will soon begin flying out in transport helicopters under cover of darkness
  • But defense secretary tells reporters that 'there's been no decision whatsoever to leave Iraq, period'
  • Chairman of the joint chief of staff confesses that the letter was a draft released by mistake 
  • Donald Trump said Sunday that he would only withdraw troops if Iraq paid the U.S. for building and maintaining the main air base the coalition uses
  • He also threatened greater sanctions than those he has imposed on Iran
  • Iraq's parliament had passed a resolution, which is nonbinding, urging the government to evict American troops
  • That was in response to Trump green-lighting a drone attack on an infamous Iranian military leader while he was in Baghdad, in Iraqi soil  
  • U.S. will send six B-52 bombers to the Diego Garcia air base on an island in the Indian Ocean, to prepare for the possibility of military action against Iran
Reports Monday that the U.S. would soon withdraw all its forces from Iraq were turned on their heads minutes later when U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper told reporters there were no plans to pull up stakes.
'There's been no decision whatsoever to leave Iraq, period,' Esper said, adding that he and his staff were 'trying to figure out' the meaning of a letter signed by a brigadier general that suggested the opposite.
'There are no plans to leave,' he emphasized, suggesting discussion of a massive troop movement could be merely a signal that forces are being repositioned inside Iraq's borders.
Separately, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told reporters that the letter was 'a draft. It was a mistake. It was unsigned. It should not have been released.'
The draft was 'poorly worded' and 'implies withdrawal. That is not what’s happening,' Milley declared.
The U.S. military had appeared to inform Baghdad that it was preparing for 'movement out of Iraq,' a day after the Iraqi parliament urged the government in a non-binding resolution to oust foreign troops.
The head of the Pentagon task force in Iraq, Brigadier General William Seely, sent a draft letter to the head of Iraq's joint operations command.
'Sir, in deference to the sovereignty of the Republic of Iraq, and as requested by the Iraqi Parliament and the Prime Minister, [the coalition] will be repositioning forces over the course of the coming days and weeks to prepare for onward movement,' Seely wrote.  He added: 'We respect your sovereign decision to order our departure.' 
President Donald Trump said Sunday aboard Air Force One that troops would not leave Iraq unless the country compensated the U.S. for the costs associated with building and maintaining military facilities there.
'We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that's there. It cost billions of dollars to build. Long before my time,' he said. 'We're not leaving unless they pay us back for it.'
Trump also said he would punish Baghdad economically if U.S. troops were evicted. 
'We will charge them sanctions like they've never seen before ever. It'll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame,' he warned.  
Yet Iraqi premier Adel Abdel Mahdi met with the U.S. Ambassador Matthew Tueller on Monday, telling him it was 'necessary to work together to withdraw foreign forces from Iraq.' 
On Sunday, Iraq's parliament voted in favor of the Baghdad government rescinding its permission for all foreign troops to remain in the country.
That came in reaction to a U.S. precision drone strike on Baghdad that killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and top Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, among others.
The resulting chaos has made some in Iraq fear a new civil war, and drew millions to crowd streets in Tehran to see Soleimani's coffin paraded through the city. 
And tensions betweeen Washington and Tehran aren't going away: The U.S. will send six B-52 bombers to the Diego Garcia air base on an island in the Indian Ocean, accordign to CNN, to prepare for the possibility of military action against Iran. 
Gen. Seely wrote on Monday in order to reposition thousands of troops elsewhere, 'Coalition Forces are required to take certain measures to ensure that the movement out of Iraq is conducted in a safe and efficient manner.'
The letter was signed by a U.S. official on Pentagon letterhead, making it unclear whether it applied to forces from the 76 countries which make up the international coalition.
An Iraqi defense official confirmed the letter was real and had been delivered. 
Officials said helicopters would be traveling in and around the Green Zone as part of the preparations.
Reporters could hear helicopters flying low over Baghdad throughout the night on Monday.
Some 5,200 U.S. soldiers are stationed across Iraqi bases to support local troops preventing a resurgence of the ISIS terror group.
They make up the bulk of the broader coalition, invited by the Iraqi government in 2014 to help combat the jihadists. 
[...]
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Soleimani Was in Baghdad on Mission for Saudi Peace with Iran

Does this explain the gracious, appropriate, and prompt reply from the U.S. military to the Iraqi demand that U.S. troops quit Iraq? I think more than one thing explains the military's open contradiction of their commander-in-chief's bluster but this would probably be a part of it. The Saudis are most assuredly livid about the assassination of Qassem Soleimani while he was on a mission for them. And surely they're justifiably worried that his murder could be blamed on a Saudi betrayal. But if the Saudis are upset, one can imagine how the ranking Iraqi officials feel.  

Iraqi PM says Soleimani was supposed to deliver reply to Saudi message January 5, 2020
Anti-war (U.S.)

On Thursday night, the US assassinated top Iranian Gen. Qassam Soleimani in a drone strike at Baghdad International Airport. His arrival was actually part of ongoing diplomatic efforts, according to Iraqi PM Adel Abdul-Mahdi.

Soleimani’s visit was related to well-documented Saudi attempts at diplomacy to ease tensions with Iran. The Saudis had dispatched a message of peace to Iran, with Iraq acting as an intermediary. Soleimani was coming to Iraq to deliver the Iranian government’s reply.

The US assassination, then, undercut the peace effort to an enormous level. Iraq was keen to facilitate peace between its two neighbors, hopefully to calm down US threats against Iran. Instead, the US undercut the entire process.

It’s not clear this totally ends the Saudi effort for peace, though it may be difficult for Iran to safely get messengers into Baghdad in the near future, with the US rather openly threatening more assassinations. Since peace overtures were the Saudi “plan B” after the US didn’t attack Iran, they may no longer bother, given the rapidly escalating military tensions.

[END REPORT]

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