US-Russia relations: On the road to Munich, the US stages a provocation

For months prior to the 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy, rumors flew in diplomatic circles that Vladimir Putin planned to use the conference as a platform for a major foreign policy speech that would set the direction for his successor.

Instead of a comprehensive speech about Russia's broad aims on the world stage, on Saturday President Putin recounted a list of US actions that he said added up to a frightening abuse of power and a grave threat to global security.(1) And he as much said that the United States was engaging in provocation with Russia.(2)

Putin's criticisms of US foreign policy are not new, and his rebuke was very tame next to his remarks at a press conference he called after the Beslan massacre -- remarks that did not receive mention in the US media outside of a few blogs, including Pundita's. Yet Putin's speech should be taken seriously because he is reacting to what he views as US provocation.

RIA Novosti reported last week that:

Speaking to the U.S. House of Representatives Wednesday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Peter Pace said: "I think we need the full range of military capabilities. We need both the ability for regular force-on-force conflicts because we don't know what's going to develop in places like Russia and China, in North Korea, in Iran and elsewhere."(2)

The Moscow Times reported the same comments as coming from Robert Gates before the "House Armed Services Committee," but while I haven't seen a transcript, I tentatively assume that the Moscow Times report is in error. In any case, testimony before an official US body that lumps Russia with North Korea and Iran as much says that Russia now poses a significant military threat to the United States.

In addition, the US government-funded Freedom House's latest Freedom in the World survey places Russia in the "not free" category, alongside North Korea, Cuba and Libya -- "countries where the U.S. is waging or considering military action," as RIA Novosti puts it.(2)

This framing of Russia as a looming military foe has to be seen in light of recent US actions in Russia's neck of the woods:

Russian analysts argue that Washington's consistent efforts to redeploy its missile defense system closer to Russia's borders may be an indication the U.S. administration seeks to revive the "Cold War" against Moscow and its allies. Washington has recently moved its largest sea-based missile defense radar in the Pacific from Hawaii to the Aleutian Islands, not far from Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula. It has also announced plans to install a radar system in the Czech Republic and a missile interceptor site in Poland, which it says it needs to protect itself against a potential threat from Iran.

Gleb Pavlovsky, Russia's most famous spin-doctor, said that U.S. plans to build missile defense sites in Central Europe may spur an arms race.

"This surely is the beginning of an arms race in some sense," he said. "Which is all the more unjustified given that Russia has never, not on a single issue, expressed an intention to confront the U.S. or to deter it."

Add to these military actions, US meddling in Russia's internal affairs has continued -- and to such an extent that Gary Kasparov, who is pro-US and rabidly anti-Putin, recently pleaded with top Bush administration officials to stop the meddling.

Add to this, Washington is attempting to block Russia at the UN over the matter of Kosovo's independence from Serbia -- even though the US has no strategic interest in the matter. (3, 4)

When you put it all together, it's provocation, which couldn't have come at a worse time for the US war effort. If the US is engaging in hypocrisy on Kosovo, Russia is being two-faced on Iran. They claim they're providing weapons to Iran so that Iran won't feel cornered -- a lame excuse if there ever was one.

Putin's Saturday speech has been called aggressive by some Western analysts, and by John McCain. I'd call it unvarnished opinion shorn of diplomatic niceties. After all, it was not very diplomatic to name Russia as a potential military threat to the United States while both countries were on the road to the Munich conference.

Unfortunately, Kasparov's advice falls on deaf ears where it's most needed. In his speech Putin took care to exempt President Bush from the roast, saying that Bush is his friend and a decent man, and that he was unfairly blamed for everything wrong with US policy.

Putin clearly intended to imply that Bush is hostage to cadres in the US government that have run away with US policy on Russia and other ex-Soviet regions.

The implication is on target, but the buck stops at the President's desk. It is up to Mr Bush to call Mr Gates, Ms Rice, and certain congressionals to his office and read them the riot act.

And regarding the UN resolution on Kosovo, this is one vote the US should sit out. That would help pour oil on troubled waters.

1) Putin Castigates U.S. Foreign Policy, U.S. Defense Department and Reuters via The Moscow Times

2) Russian analysts suspect U.S. of intentions to revive "Cold War", RIA Novosti

3) Kosovo independence will open up Pandora's box . . ., RIA Novosti

4) Putin Hints at Veto on Kosovo, The Associated Press via The Moscow Times