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Sunday, September 15

Was a cruise missile included in Houthi 9/14 attacks on Saudi oil targets?

Well. That might explain how at least one of the oil storage units at the Abqaiq facility was breached, although we don't know at this time exactly how many of those units were successfully hit. Anyhow, the sharp-eyed Bernhard at Moon of Alabama has scooped up this eyebrow-raiser for his analysis of the Houthi attacks:
... But drones may not have been the sole cause of the incident. Last night a Kuwaiti fishermen recorded the noise of a cruise missile or some jet driven manned or unmanned aircraft coming from Iraq. Debris found on the ground in Saudi Arabia seems to be from a Soviet-era KH-55 cruise missile or from a Soumar, an Iranian copy of that design. The Houthi have shown cruise missiles, likely from Iran, with a similar design (see below). After an attack on Saudi oil installations in August, there were accusations that at least some of the attacks came from Iraq. Iran was accused of having been involved in that attack]. While this sounds unlikely it is not inconceivable. ...
There's lots more in Bernhard's discussion of reports about  the attack, including photos and all kinds of graphics -- and this mention:
Saudi Arabia said that the fires are under control. Video shot this morning shows that they continue.
Also, Bernhard is sticking by his prediction, made some days ago, that the Saudis will have to roll over and negotiate with the Houthi to end a war that is getting the better of the kingdom:
That attack in August was the checkmate move against the Saudi war on Yemen. As we wrote at that time:
Saudi Arabia has nothing that could stop mass attacks by these drones. It would require hundreds of Russian made Pantsyr-S1 and BUK air defense systems to protect Saudi oil installations. There would still be no guarantee that they could not be overwhelmed.
Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen. It has no defenses against the new weapons the Houthis in Yemen acquired. These weapons threaten the Saudis' economic lifelines.
But while I dislike repeating the warning I gave about Lavrov's claim that the Syrian War is over, we'll have to see.  If the U.S. can definitively implicate Iran in the 9/14 Houthi attack on the Saudi oil facilities, which they might be able to do if a cruise missile was involved, there's no telling what will happen next.

One question about Bernhard's report. He writes:
The second target was a processing plant near Khurais 190 km (118 miles) further southwest. It lies within the country's second-largest oil field.
As I mentioned last night, two reports on the attacks, one from AP and the other from Oil Price, state that the second attack was on the Khurais oilfield, not the nearby processing plant, and Debkafile is also reporting the strike was against the oilfield. But the attacks are still a fog-of-war situation, which Aramco might clear up in its promised assessment, due in less than 48 hours.

As to whether the Houthis could breach (and reach) the oil storage units just with drones, in theory, yes, from this comment at Sic Semper Tyrannis about the attacks (emphasis mine):

From Walrus:
I would think GPS/GLONASS/GALILEO is accurate enough for delivery to within about a 30 feet radius circle. The electronics are nothing special these days.
Launching would probably be via a rail with some sort of rocket booster maybe powered by an rpg motor or some sort of slow burn propellant (maybe from arty or mortar rounds?).
My WAG is that the speed of this thing is maybe no more than 100 - 150 mph and it’s powered by a piston engine burning maybe 10 litres per hour (another WAG) for 6 hours that means about 100 lbs of fuel (60 x .72 x 2.2). if the motor weighs about 25 lb, and allow about the same for a fibreglass airframe, we get a weight less warhead of about 150 - 170 lb for a still air range of about 600 statute miles.
Now add about 50 lb of explosive as a payload with some form of impact fuse and we have about a 220lb drone with a range of 600 miles that is too small and slow to be noticed.
I can’t imagine any precision guidance/armour piercing sophisticated munitions are used; all you would need for a fire is a lucky round to hit one of CBI’s finest tanks and boom - 10 million litres of flaming product.
I would imagine our intelligence services have a much better idea than my guess and would be concerned that other “entrepreneurs “ don’t copy the Houthi.
Our colleague, “Nuff said” suggested the ingredients were smuggled in and the Houthi built them themselves. That suggests they are building and launching in salvos as fast as they can. ...
As to what if anything the Israelis are saying about the attacks -- Debkafile claims they were launched from Iraq, which might lend weight to the fisherman's evidence:
DEBKAfile Exclusive: Early Saturday, Sept. 14, Yemeni Houthi rebels fired at least 10 drones against the Saudi Aramco’s biggest oil facility and second largest oil field from Iraq. Our sources report that they used pro-Iranian Shiite militia bases in southern Iraq ...
No mention of a cruise missile.

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