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Monday, October 14

Erdogan's land grab in Syria faces the wrath of everybody on the planet

Except for the Muslim Brotherhood and maybe Qatar and also Sheik Muslat and Syrian Arabs along the Turkish border the sheik must've prodded into cheering on the Turks, I think those are the only friends the Turks have left in the world at this time. Whatever possessed Erdogan to outright threaten the Europeans and order the showy bracketing of U.S. troops near Kobani? He also sneered at the Arab League's strong condemnation of Turkey's invasion of Syria. 

Now what? Yesterday at the conclusion of 'secret' meetings at the Russian airbase in Syria, the Syrian Arab Army and the Kurdish-led SDF army unsurprisingly announced they had agreed to join forces to battle the Turkish incursion into northern Syria. Unsurprising because the SAA-SDF troops had already started joint operations to defend against the Turks. 

I suppose I should also mention that a Syrian Arab spokesman read out a ringing declaration of solidarity with the SDF, which must have upset Sheik Muslat, whose weathervane was clearly not working if he thought the Turks had the wind at their backs in Syria:  
"We, as sheikhs and elders of Arab tribes in NE Syria are ready to provide nearly 50,000 Arab tribes and tribal fighters to join the SDF to confront the barbaric Ottoman occupier and his mercenaries. Brotherhood of peoples is the basis of coexistence, peace, equality and harmony."
(For those readers who recall all the reports earlier in the year that I passed along from FARS about Syrian Arab uprisings in N.E. Syria against the Kurds -- well, there's a difference between Kurdish bullying and losing one's lands to the Turks.)  

I'll also mention that on October 12 Debkafile explained to anyone who cared to listen that for all their hand-wringing, the SDF is in a formidable position against the Turkish invaders:
Some 140,000 well-armed SDF Kurdish fighters are dug in along a 300km front east of the River Euphrates. They have set up a defense line that is heavily fortified and barricaded, studded with anti-tank traps and supplied with plentiful ammo stores.
The Turkish force in Syria at present is too small to tackle this Kurdish force. To raise an army equal to the task of smashing the Kurds, Turkey would need a largescale military call-up, and even then, might be short of manpower for the task. ...
As to hitting at the SDF from the air, there were some initial bombings by the Turkish Air Force but according to Debkafile (which, we may recall, is an unofficial conduit for the view from Israel's military):
The Turks are further constrained by the refusal of both the US and Russia to allow their air force to operate in northern Syrian air space, thereby hobbling their ability to advance very far across the Euphrates.
There is also the S-300 possessed by Syria's military, which after extensive training in the use of said contraption, recently received official permission from the Russian government to deploy it in defense of Syrian military positions from air attacks -- provided, of course, the Syrians were willing to accept responsibility for its use and so on and so forth.  Now that the SDF and SAA are quite literally fighting shoulder to shoulder, it would be hard for the Turkish Air Force to target the SDF without threatening SAA troops.

And you may trust the SDF is getting quiet help from both Israel and the U.S. in dealing with Turkey's assault, which means the SAA is benefiting from such help. And certainly, the Iranians are quietly chipping in whatever intel they can scare up about Turkey's doings in Syria.

What happens next? Will the Turks pick up their marbles and go home? I'd guess events during the coming 72 hours will produce an educated guess as to the answer. Whatever happens, it looks to me as if President Erdogan has finally and completely worn out his welcome on the world stage.

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