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Saturday, December 17

Is the Indian Rupee a Black Swan Event?

We may have been looking in the wrong direction -- at the yuan (technically Renminbi) and asking whether it could rival or even replace the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.

 Six hours ago from India's Firstpost, 4:46 minutes:


Part of the story is not new. See this five-minute report from India's WION on July 12:

Gravitas: RBI announces rupee mechanism for foreign trade - YouTube

"The Reserve Bank of India has rolled out a system to settle international trade transactions in the Indian rupee instead of the dollar. How does the rupee trade work? How will it impact India's trade relations? Palki Sharma tells you."

But as Firstpost indicates, several policies and global trade/financial trends are suddenly converging and moving fast to propel the rupee to an important reserve currency status. This is something nobody could have predicted.  

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2 comments:

Himanshu said...

the whole world is upside down at the moment. its one huge black swan event after another. whats one more. god bless us all in this dark time.

sykes.1 said...

Russia, China, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia and others are working to replace the dollar as a medium of international trade. Generally this occurs as agreements to conduct bilateral trade in local currencies. In the background, there is an ongoing program to create an international currency, not ruble, renminbi, or rupee, that is based on a mix of local currencies and goods like gold or oil.

This is driven by US sanctions and the habit of the US to confiscate the deposits of dollars and gold of countries it has some sort of dispute with.