Chaos

Noon Update
Stratfor:

Libya’s government announced an immediate cease-fire on March 18, a day after the U.N. Security Council approved a no-fly zone over the North African country. The move complicates European efforts to spearhead a campaign against Libyan government troops. Assuming Tripoli follows through on its declaration, the affect on operations against the Libyan rebels remains in question.

[...]

I give up. Following the Libya situation on a daily basis is like trying to play chess with a jackrabbit.
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Now that the "International Community" has declared war on Gadhafi it looks as if he's yanked the offer to let the few hundred rebels that are left to fight to surrender or leave Benghazi in peace (and be picked off later in the desert). The idea behind the offer was to spare the key city, but with Gadhafi now racing against the "International Community," it's doubtful he'll attempt to spare noncombatant civilian lives in the push to retake Benghazi.

Meanwhile in Bahrain (see John's website for links and video in the following post):

Fifth Fleet Bahrain Bug Out
By John Batchelor on March 17, 2011 6:13 PM

The news from Manama, the capital of the small island state of Bahrain, is that the Fifth Fleet HQ has gone on maneuvers to Oman for an indefinite time frame. In sum, bug out from the proxy war in Bahrain between Riyadh and Tehran. Am told that the IRGC has staffed and funded the so-called protesters. The social media messaging that now floods the web, #bahrain, is suspect of being an IRGC disinformation campaign. Of most significance, am told the Bahrain confrontation marks the breakdown of the 65 year-long alliance between Washington and Riyadh. The Kingdom has now turned away. China through the Pakistan connection looks like the choice to replace the US.

Spoke Barry Rubin, GLORIA, to learn that Egypt is also tumbling away from the US. Pat Lang, Sic Semper Tyrannis, said that Cairo is looking for another sponsor. What has caused this break between Washington and its allies in the Middle East?

Am told that the White House is deaf to experienced diplomats in the region. That the White House is piously ideological in supporting so-called democratic leaning youth protesters despite the evidence that the "yuppie bloggers" are either naive ideologues themselves, without experience in governance or diplomacy, or they are tools of the anarchists, Islamists and Twelvers. Asked Barry Rubin if the US is on the brink of losing Egypt. Answer: over the brink. Asked Pat Lang if there was any repairing the break with Riyadh. Answer: no.

Somehow I don't see Chinese willing to be the Saudis' favorite slaves

"I summon my blue-eyed slaves anytime it pleases me. I command the Americans to send me their bravest soldiers to die for me. Anytime I clap my hands a stupid genie called the American ambassador appears to do my bidding. When the Americans die in my service their bodies are frozen in metal boxes by the US Embassy and American airplanes carry them away, as if they never existed. Truly, America is my favorite slave."
-- Saudi King Fahd Bin Abdul-Aziz; Jeddeh 1993

Batchelor dispatch re Bahrain and the Saudis (see his website for videos and links):

Last Exit to Bahrain
By John Batchelor on March 15, 2011 3:01 PM

From Youtube, and reported @AJELive #Bahrain Police shooting in Sitra this morning: what looks to be a handful of militia in a rough part of town, with graffiti on the walls, few cars, certainly not uniformed police authority, moving backward from unseen shouting. Two or more shots ring out, unclear from where, and then one of the militia fires a round.

Spoke Pat Pang and Larry Johnson, Tuesday 15, who tell me that Riyadh has broken off communication with Washington re Bahrain. David Sanger, NYT, tells me that the first time the White House knew of the Saudi troops rolling over the causeway to Bahrain was when it saw it on the news.

Pat Lang says this is a major turn in the road, an unprecedented breakdown. Pat Lang and Larry Johnson and I speculated who the Saudis will task for military cover in the Gulf if they are shedding the US. China is the guess.

The Saudis have quit the Obama administration as an ally. The deteriorating started with the Mubarak fiasco of late January and now continues through the [Gadhafi] fiasco of March. The Bahrain event, the imminent brutality, the distrust and disdain by Riyadh for Washington, all signs point to bloodymindedness in the Gulf. There is a proxy war between Riyadh and Tehran, and the US is out of the fight.

Wednesday Morning 16

Am reporting now that the Bahrain riot police backed up by tanks [as] the Saudi troops are moving now on the protesters camped out in the open in Manama, using tear-gas and brute force.

The US is out of the fight? Where is my Kleenex box?

I'm not sure I have the same view of the situation as Batchelor, and I'm certain I don't agree with Glenn Beck on this one. Beck is upset because President Obama is talking about basketball scores and Women's History Month while MENA is an uproar. He wants Obama to 'lead.'

I disagree, unless Obama wants to do the right kind of leading: Get out there and shout from a mountaintop, "Drill drill drill!"

But by a funny coincidence, the last time Americans got really serious about weaning themselves from foreign oil -- in 2008 -- which drove down the price of OPEC oil, there was a sudden catastrophe in the global financial markets, the genesis of which was never, ever quite fully explained.

Absent Obama saying that every American homeowner should start drilling for oil in the back yard, he's doing the right thing by being too preoccupied to play slave to squabbling oil kingdoms.

Yes of course there will be suffering for Americans if we seriously cross the Saudis and OPEC. But if there was ever a time to be inspired to take courage, all we have to do is look at how the Japanese are meeting suffering.

Donald Trump said recently that if he were U.S. President he'd make other nations respect us again. No. There can be no respect from others if we don't first respect ourselves. No man can bestow self-respect on others. This is something we have to do ourselves.