Britain's Snowmageddon: No dress rehearsal for the unexpected (REVISED)

UPDATE December 22, 2010 - 3:50 AM ET
I pulled the report Chances of Empty Shelves for Last-Minute Shoppers by Daniel Goode at Financial Feed when I discovered he'd quoted extensively from a Guardian report without crediting the source. I've replaced Goode's report with the Guardian one.
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Memo to Cameron's government: Assume there is not going to be a letup in the freezing weather and the snow and ice over the next week. So worry less about humiliation on the world stage and about Dubai stealing Heathrow's air passenger traffic, and worry more about what you're going to face, if riots break out over food shortages.

Readers outside the U.K. need to realize that supply shortages there didn't start a couple days ago; the bad weather all this month in northern Europe is having a snowballing effect, if you'll pardon the expression, on disruptions in the supply chain. With more snow and sub-freezing weather in the forecast there's going to be a tipping point where serious shortages of critical supplies emerge for the U.K.

So it's past time for Cameron's government to call up the military and ask every country in Europe with good snow moving equipment to airlift in as many snowplows AND FOOD CONTAINERS as they can. And ask Russia for help. Ask everyone for help.

Below are quotes from a report from the (U.K.) Guardian that confronts the reality of what's happening now in the U.K. regarding shortages. I repeat, "now." Not two days from now.

For readers who don't know what Tesco sells -- it's a global grocery and general merchandising retailer headquartered in the U.K. It's the fourth largest retailer in the world. (Emphasis in the report mine):

Weather chaos: last-minute shoppers may face empty shelves
by Tom Bawden
Guardian, U.K.
Sunday 19 December 2010 18.58 GMT

Fears mount over deliveries as snow closes stores and shoppers shun out-of-town malls in favour of high street

Fears are mounting that Britain's shoppers could find themselves staring at empty shelves if the treacherous weather continues in the run-up to Christmas.

As blocked roads, freezing temperatures and snow hit what is traditionally the busiest shopping weekend of the year, many customers stayed away – especially from shops in less accessible out-of-town centres – and deliveries of stock to the retailers ran into difficulties.
[...]
Apart from the difficulty of getting customers to out-of-town shopping centres, many of which can only be accessed by roads, there is also is an increasing danger that shops may no longer have a full range of stock.

Although there have been no reported cases of shops running out of anything yet, retail analysts said such a scenario was a very real possibility.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "If this weather persists it is going to be very disruptive to deliveries to supermarkets. Supply chains have been massively hit by the snow and ice this month, with many products being stuck at container ports for an extended period.

"Deliveries are going to be hit by this weekend's weather and a lot is going to depend on the weather in the coming week, which isn't looking good at the moment," he said.

Richard Perks, the director of retail research at the Verdict consultancy, pointed out that Britain's retail distribution system is generally very efficient, but he said that "fresh food stores could suffer" from the weather conditions.

Tesco and Marks & Spencer insisted there were no problems with the delivery of stock to their stores and said they did not anticipate running out of any products in the run-up to Christmas.

John Lewis's retail director, Andrew Murphy, conceded that there had been delays in some areas to deliveries that had been due by Saturday night, but he was confident those supplies would have reached their destination by last night or this morning.

"Obviously the deliveries of some items will be compromised in some areas, but in terms of overall stock levels I'm confident we will be back up to where we would have been by tomorrow morning," he said.

He added, though, that if the retailer was presented with extreme weather conditions in the next few days he could not rule out stock shortages in some areas.
[...]

Got all that? Now go back and read the article on Britian's food security problems that I linked to earlier today and which is titled, The high cost we pay for cheap food.

And if you're reading this outside the U.K. and chortling at the British in another jam -- uh, how's your country's food security situation in an emergency?

The message sent to the human race this year by one natural calamity after another has been "Wake up, fools."

Cameron and Clegg need to recall that the presidencies of Bush and Obama never recovered from slow-footed responses to the Katrina hurricane and the Gulf oil spill crisis. They'd better ask themselves, 'What would Winston Churchill do?' in response to the looming food shortages in Britain, then do it.

There is no dress rehearsal for the unexpected. It's crunch time for Cameron's government: time to pull out all the stops in response to the weather crisis.

And forget about setting off a panic by calling up the military to make food deliveries. The people outside government aren't stupid; they know there's a mega-crisis building. Political opportunists and wet blankets will criticize the government if with hindsight it seems it overreacted by calling up the military. But every sensible person in the U.K. will be greatly relieved to see that the government was thinking ahead by a few days and doing everything within its power to avert a serious shortage of critical supplies.

There's got to be a way that food containers backed up outside the country can be brought in via military transport and delivered to areas that are facing shortages within the next 48 hours. Find the way and find it now.

The high cost of cheap

One thing I hate doing is making major revisions to an essay once I've published it, but as I noted in the update to yesterday's post on Mexico/NAFTA, the response to the first version of the essay from a blogger friend prodded me to pare the number of themes I'd stuffed into it.

Then I was left with the chore of shaping the parings into a new essay. Often it's at this stage that I procrastinate to the point where the planned essay gets lost in a pile of other unfinished essays. But this time synchronicity, in the form of an opinion piece that popped up on Google News titled The high price we pay for cheap food (see quotes below), inspired me to knuckle down. The writing, by top British chef and restaurateur Arthur Potts Dawson, is very much concerned with the theme of this essay.

I'll start with a clarification. The connection I saw between the degraded concept of value and my discussion of Mexico is that a number of American retirees are willing to abandon their country because it's cheaper to live in Mexico. The trend will accelerate when Americans retire in greater numbers and the drug-war violence in the country eventually subsides. I neglected to mention that many such Americans take up residency in Mexico as much for the climate as for financial reasons or because they love Mexico. However, I saw in the willingness of Americans to leave the USA because they could live more cheaply in another country as another warning sign that the American quest for the cheapest deal had been carried to such lengths that it was eroding the concept of value across the board in the USA.

The erosion is evident in the Wal-Mart Syndrome: the store's cheap merchandise encourages American consumers to purchase things they don't really need; replace items, such as electronics and appliances, that are still serviceable; and frequently replace poorly-made personal items such as clothing.

Thus, the cheapness of Wal-Mart merchandise is an expensive illusion. This was brought home to me years ago when I accompanied a French friend to the women's suit section of an American department store. Cursing a blue streak in French while a cowed sales clerk looked on, she exposed shoddy workmanship and materials by ripping open linings and seams, poking her finger into badly-made buttonholes and yanking at wool to show how poorly it held its shape.

"These suits will not last two seasons," she fumed in English to the clerk. "This is robbing the American working woman!"

I don't know how many Frenchwomen like her are left. The gorgeous wool suit she wore to the store had been handmade in France by a dressmaker who used the finest materials. But I do know the suit still looked new after 12 seasons of hard wear, and it was cut in a way that it still looked fashionable -- or should I say 'elegant,' which is the secret to always being in fashion. You are not going to find that kind of bargain by shopping in even the better American clothing stores, let alone the Wal-Mart types.

The rejoinder is that when the consumer has to frequently replace poorly-made clothing this is good for sales, which in turn is good for the garment and fashion industries. But the argument overlooks the greatest hidden cost in that kind of business model, which is the degradation of the concept of value. The cost is evident in the views of the American Jim Rogers, a commodities investor and the co-founder of the Quantum Fund, who told CNBC in 2008:

"If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007 you move to Asia."

Following his own advice he had moved to Singapore:

Rogers said that people in China are extremely motivated and driven and he wants to be in that type of environment, so his daughters are motivated and driven. He also stated that this is how America and Europe used to be. He chose not to move to Chinese cities like Hong Kong or Shanghai due to the high levels of pollution causing potential health problems for his family; hence, he chose Singapore.

I'm not sure that Mr Rogers is teaching his daughters motivation and drive because both characteristics require endurance. He is very definitely teaching them to think of citizenship in a democracy as cheap -- the same democracy that carried China on its back to its economic 'miracle,' the same democracy that gave him the freedom to earn a fortune even though he did not come from an elite background.

Mr Rogers is demonstrating to his offspring that when one's citizenship in the USA is no longer perceived as financially rewarding, the smart American simply abandons his country rather than putting effort into preserving it. (Although I'll bet Mr Rogers has made sure that he and his daughters have hung onto their American passports.)

So I would not agree with Mr Rogers's definition of "smart," which confuses expediency with value. A society cannot flourish if it's that much confused.

I'll close with a few passages from Dawson's op-ed but I urge you to read the entire piece, watch the video at the CNN website of a speech he gave, and follow the links provided there.

Dawson is specifically concerned with the loss of a nation's food security when the lure of cheap groceries concentrates responsibility for food provision in a few supermarket chains, which has happened in England. In light of Britain's present weather crisis, which has virtually suspended rail, road, and air transport in the country and caused concerns that food (and fuel) shortages are looming in some parts, Dawson's warning is prescient.

The high price we pay for cheap food
By Arthur Potts Dawson
Special to CNN
December 19, 2010

CNN Editor's Note
TED is a nonprofit organization devoted to "Ideas worth spreading," which it distributes through talks posted on its website. Chef Arthur Potts Dawson, who gave the talk above [see video] at the TED Global conference in July, started eco-friendly London restaurants Acorn House and Water House, which have rooftop gardens, low-energy refrigerators and compost and other green systems. He recently launched The People's Supermarket, a member-run cooperative supporting British farms.

[...]

In Britain the big supermarkets dominate our food chain. British supermarkets are some of the best in the world at controlling, manipulating and delivering cheap food. Controlling food and its distribution takes a huge amount of money and energy, but because the British food producer could not keep up with the supermarkets' demands for ever-lower prices, the supermarkets have moved to buying globally.

They turned to the products provided by cheap labor in northern and southern Africa, South America and Asia. But in shifting from Britain to the world, our supermarkets managed to destabilize Britain's food infrastructure. The supermarkets have left behind farmers, milk producers and fishermen. They all have knowledge they should be passing down, but there is no new blood wanting to pick up the rake, the fishing net or the gate latch at 4 a.m.

There is no money in food production in Britain: The supermarkets have taken the potential for a decent living away. The cost to produce milk is higher than the supermarkets are willing to pay. The cost of meat is too high, and the cost of fish is too high.

But the supermarkets reply that they are only trying to "give the customers what they want," so they must go abroad. In this statement is the manipulation. We as customers are led to believe that the low costs we pay are borne by the supermarkets. Well, think again.

It is the producers in this country who are paid such low prices by the supermarkets for their produce that they are going out of business by the hundreds every year, and with it goes their knowledge. The supermarkets are not delivering cheap food, it is the farmers and producers of Britain, and now the world -- and at a cost to the environment too. Increased yield means increased use of fertilizers, pesticides and antibiotics in animals.

About 30% of fresh food is thrown away in supermarkets every day, although they will deny it. British households are throwing an estimated 30% of their food away too. Where are we going with this over-producing, over-consuming super-cheap food system? We are going global with a huge reliance on oil.

But when the oil stops flowing, and our systems fail, no safety procedures are in place to help us. No localized food networks, and no agricultural schools developing our next wave of farmers -- this in a country where the average age for a farmer is 64.

It feels to me as if we are becoming so overly reliant on our supermarket system, that when it breaks down, all we can turn to is military intervention.

Surely we should be striving to teach and educate people how to feed themselves. How to grow food and distribute it locally. How to barter for food items that can bring the essential vitamins and minerals for healthy life.

[...]

Dawson's writing reminded me that the Locavore movement is growing by leaps and bounds in the USA. See this November 29, 2010 report, Locavores Moving the Markets by Freakonomics columnist Stephen J. Dubner at The New York Times.

Britain Snowmageddon and Europe Snowpocalypse

The M25 comes to halt as snow causes travel chaos across the UK

Photo for The Telegraph: TOMMY HINDLEY

Here we go again, and it's not even 2011. This is the second big wave of snowstorms to hit northern Europe this month. See this December 2 Reuters report for a roundup on the earlier storms, which among other things toblanketed Paris and wreaked economic havoc.

As a Washingtonian who live-blogged through America's Snowmageddon 2010 which shut down the nation's capital for days, I'm not going to snicker at the plight of the British, who were waaay unprepared for the worst blizzards they've seen since 1981. And a Bronx cheer for one of those terribly irritating people who are always prepared; as cars by the thousands skidded around roads on Saturday he left a chipper comment at The Telegraph: "I drove from Germany to Calais yesterday and then through Kent to north London today. How was this possible? Winter tyres."

But as more blizzard conditions; what could be record-breaking cold temperatures; and widespread shortages in food, home heating fuel, and emergency blood supplies loom, there's not much Snowmageddon humor I can wring out the situation.

All this couldn't have come at a worse time; as much of Britain has ground to a halt Christmas holiday travelers have been stranded all over Europe and retailers are missing out on what is supposed to be the best week for sales. And that's just in the United Kingdom; many parts of northern Europe are also battling the heavy snows:

Snow causes pre-Christmas travel chaos in Europe

BERLIN
Dec 18, 2010 4:36 am EST

(Reuters) - Heavy snow and freezing temperatures caused travel chaos across northern Europe on Friday, with hundreds of German flights cancelled and icy roads wreaking havoc in Poland and the Netherlands ahead of Christmas.

A spokesman for Frankfurt airport operator Fraport said 400 of 1,400 scheduled flights had been cancelled at continental Europe's busiest airport, even though Germany's financial capital escaped the worst of the winter weather.

Another 100 flights were cancelled in Berlin, which was blanketed in heavy snow throughout the day, leaving city workers scrambling to clear roads and slowing traffic to a crawl in some parts.

In neighbouring Poland, where severe frost has killed 93 people so far this winter, a blast of cold and new train timetables combined to cause chaos on the rail network.

Days of disruption have led to calls by opposition politicians for the dismissal of Infrastructure Minister Cezary Grabarczyk, who apologised in parliament on Friday for the inconvenience suffered by passengers.
[...]
In the Netherlands, highways became covered in ice, two tunnels were closed due to ice and an accident, and 500 km (300 miles) of traffic jams formed, the Dutch transport group ANWB said on its Twitter feed.

Amsterdam Schiphol Airport said dozens of flights had been cancelled and public transport in Dutch cities was sharply reduced.
[...]

Now onto Britain:

Britain gridlocked after heavy snow brings travel chaos

Blizzard conditions left Britain gridlocked as major airports closed, roads became impassable and train services were cancelled on what should have been the busiest weekend before Christmas.

By Patrick Sawer, Robert Mendick, David Barrett and Alistair Jamieson
9:00PM GMT 18 Dec 2010
The Telegraph

The heaviest December snowfalls since 1981 crippled swathes of the country's transport network.

Planes were grounded at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted airports for much of yesterday, with regional airports across the country also severely affected by ice and snow.

Millions of people who had been planning to visit the shops or their families ahead of the Christmas break, were left unable to reach their destinations or forced to abandon their journeys entirely.

There was heavy snow across much of south and south west England, the south Midlands, Merseyside, Northern Ireland and Scotland yesterday and Friday night.

The north west, Devon and Sussex were hit with up to 11in of snow, causing widespread disruption and accidents on major roads and motorways. Only East Anglia, Lincolnshire and Yorkshire escaped unscathed.

Forecasters warned that Britain was heading for the coldest December on record, with a current average temperature of minus 0.7C – five degrees below the long-term average.

The Met Office warned of more snow on Sunday and Monday, particularly in north east England and northern Scotland.

Britain's airport operators were heavily criticised after Heathrow and Gatwick closed their runways after failing to keep them clear of ice and snow.

BAA, which owns Heathrow and Stansted, was forced to shut both runways at Heathrow at about 1pm yesterday following a blizzard that lasted two hours.

The runways remained closed on Saturday afternoon and passengers were told to go home or to stay in hotels. In total 577 flights in and out of Heathrow were cancelled.

Gatwick managed to clear its runway by 3pm, though most flights were cancelled.

British Airways took a decision on Friday evening to cancel all its flights from Heathrow and Gatwick from 10am yesterday.

That left BA passengers furious that they were unable to travel while others on rival airlines were – in some cases at least – able to fly at points when the runways were still open.

There was also disruption at Southampton, Manchester, Exeter, London City, Aberdeen, Birmingham, Bristol and Cardiff airports.

At the same time many of Britain's major roads were gridlocked as heavy snow caught drivers by surprise.

The M25 was blocked in at least two locations for periods yesterday and the M20 in Kent was closed for more than two hours after a five vehicle pile-up.

Stuart Woodhead, a 37-year-old computer programmer, was driving back from Coventry to his home near Slough when he was trapped in the "bowl" between Junctions 16 and 18 on the M25, where traffic came to a standstill.

"Traffic officers are digging people out of the snow," he said.

Other roads suffering serious delays included the M4 in Berkshire and London, the M40 in Buckinghamshire, the northern section of the M3, the M2 in Kent, the southern M11 in Essex, and the A1M in Hertfordshire.

Hundreds of drivers were stranded on the M6 in Lancashire for up to seven hours on Friday night after a lorry jackknifed on the northbound carriageway and heavy snow later brought southbound traffic to a standstill.

With many roads in a treacherous state there were warnings of fuel and food shortages in some parts of the country.

Brian Madderson, chairman of the Independent Petrol Retailers Association, said forecourts in snow-hit areas were already running low, exacerbated by a backlog from the snow chaos earlier this month.

He said: "We are close to a critical point. Our members are doing all they can to prevent a weather crisis becoming a fuel crisis.

"There is evidence of localised panic buying and we would urge motorists only to fill up only what they need."

Brent Cross shopping centre in North London was forced to close because of the weather.

Blood stocks are also running low, with the NHS Blood and Transplant service revealing last night that it has just three days supply after donor sessions were cancelled due to the weather.

The AA said it expected to attend around 18,000 call-outs, compared to around 9,000 on an average Saturday.

Darron Burness, head of AA special operations, said driving conditions were "extremely difficult" in some regions.

"One of the biggest problems is that large amounts of snow are falling very quickly on to frozen surfaces, making driving hazardous," he added.

Lincolnshire County Council said it had already used about 60 per cent of its grit stocks despite starting the winter with 31,600 tonnes – 8,000 more than usual.

Meanwhile nearly a quarter of all train services suffered delays and cancellations, with operators in the south, including Southeastern and Southern Railway, struggling to keep ice from forming on the 'third' rail, which transmits power to the electric trains. Further disruption was expected on Sunday.

However other train companies managed to run a normal Saturday service on most mainline services after spending Friday night clearing snow off lines and points.

Sport also suffered from disruption, with a number of race meetings and dozens of football and rugby matches cancelled.