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Saturday, October 3

Philippines spared Parma's worst. Now we race the winds again. It doesn't have to be a fancy prayer. Just try. (UPDATED)

2:45 AM EDT: Parma didn't entirely spare the Philippines. Whole lot of trouble over there in the Asian Pacific -- earthquake, typhoons, tsunami. AP report:
2nd typhoon lashes northern Philippines
By ROHAN SULLIVAN (AP) – 59 minutes ago

MANILA, Philippines — Powerful winds toppled power poles and trees Saturday in the northern Philippines as the second typhoon in eight days bore down on the country. Farther north, Taiwan began evacuating villages also in the path of the storm.

The Philippines is still reeling from a Sept. 26 typhoon that caused the worst flooding in 40 years, killing 288. Officials said the risk of another major disaster was easing because the new storm, Typhoon Parma, had changed direction slightly and was no longer headed for heavily populated regions of the main island of Luzon.

But heavy rain was falling across a swath of Luzon that is still flooded, and violent winds were battering the far-north province of Cagayan.

Trees were uprooted and power pylons toppled in the provincial capital of Tuguegarao, local government official Bonifacio Cuarteros told The Associated Press by telephone.

"We pray that we won't have a worse outcome, but with this kind of situation, we cannot really say," he said.

Parma was due to strike the Philippines' northeastern tip on Saturday night, instead of hitting north-central Luzon on Saturday afternoon, as earlier forecast. It was packing sustained winds that had also weakened slightly, to 108 mph (175 kph), down from 121 mph (195 kph) on Friday.

The better news for the Philippines was bad news for Taiwan, which issued a storm warning and began moving people out of villages in the southern county of Kaohsiung, said local official Lin Chun-chieh. Flash flooding from the last typhoon to hit the Kaohsiung killed about 700 people in August.

Typhoon Ketsana last month damaged the homes of more than 3 million people in the Philippines. It went on to hit other Southeast Asian countries, killing 99 in Vietnam, 14 in Cambodia and 16 in Laos.

It was part of more than a week of destruction in the Asia-Pacific region that has claimed more than 1,500 lives so far: an earthquake Wednesday in Indonesia; a tsunami Tuesday in the Samoan islands; and Typhoon Ketsana across Southeast Asia.
Oct. 3 (Bloomberg):
Typhoon Parma shifted course and weakened last night, reducing its effect on Manila and the southern part of the Philippine island of Luzon. It’s forecast to make landfall in northern Luzon later today before heading toward Taiwan.

The respite will help government officials and relief organizations to deal with the effects of Tropical Storm Ketsana, which flooded Manila and surrounding provinces a week ago, forcing more than 800,000 to abandon their homes. Schools, many used as evacuation and relief operation centers, were shut all week. Some areas remain flooded while others, including Marikina in eastern Manila, are mired in as much as two feet of mud.

“It’s a big help, we weren’t ready for another catastrophe,” Marikina Mayor Marides Fernando said in a phone interview. “Prayers worked; everyone was praying. We can go back to our homes.” Most of the municipality’s 10,000 remaining evacuees may be home before Monday, allowing schools to reopen.

Parma is now traveling in a northwesterly direction instead of a west-northwest path, Philippine weather bureau Director Nathaniel Cruz said in a phone interview. Parma was 370 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of Manila at 4 a.m. local time, according to the U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Parma’s winds decreased to 185 kilometers per hour from 222 kilometers per hour.

Canceled Signal

The bureau canceled the public storm signal over Manila and some surrounding provinces and reduced the signal to No. 1 from No. 2 in the Bicol region southeast of Manila.

In Catanduanes, the province nearest to Parma’s path last night, “the wind wasn’t devastating,” Lieutenant Colonel Romeo Basco, the local Army commander there, said in a phone interview. “Even our squad tents didn’t fly off. If it didn’t affect our tents, more so houses.”

While landslides partially blocked roads in three villages, many of the 6,000 persons evacuated yesterday are already returning home.

Albay province, also in the Bicol region, is sending home the 15,300 families it evacuated in the past two days, Governor Joey Salceda said. According to initial reports, damage was limited to flooding of some rice paddies and the roof being blown off one “old” building, he said.

Santa Ana

The typhoon is forecast to make landfall tonight around Santa Ana in Cagayan province north of Manila, the weather bureau’s Cruz said in a phone interview. Cagayan and surrounding provinces remain under signals No. 2 and No. 3, indicating winds as strong as 185 kilometers per hour. The Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, north of the Philippines, issued a sea warning.

Isabela province immediately south of Cagayan has prepared trucks, rubber boats and outriggers for rescue and relief operations, Vice Governor Ramon Reyes said in a phone interview. They’ve packed more than 10,000 bags with rice, canned corned beef and sardines, coffee, noodles and sugar, he said. Farmers tried to save what they could of the rice crop, much of which is sold in Manila.

“We expect the province to be part of the center of the storm,” Reyes said. “If this harvest gets destroyed, the country will have a shortage.” Ketsana “didn’t affect the province and we even sent relief goods to Manila, he said. “The situation might reverse. We hope it wouldn’t come to that.”

Friday, October 2

Parma ("Pepeng") bears down on Luzon (UPDATED)

UPDATE 8:30 PM EDT -
Typhoon 'Pepeng' [international name, "Parma"]accelerates as it moves to Cagayan.

The Philippines Star - Updated October 03, 2009 07:56 AM [Philippines time]

MANILA, Philippines -- Typhoon "Pepeng" has accelerated as it continues to move towards Cagayan, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said in its 5 a.m. bulletin.

"Pepeng" has changed its course late last night and was reported to be heading to Cagayan instead of the Isabela-Aurora area as early reported.

Pagasa said as of 4 a.m. today, typhoon "Pepeng" was spotted at 260 kms southeast of Aparri, Cagayan with maximum sustained winds of 175 kph and gustiness of up to 210 kph. It is forecast to move northwest at 17 kph.

The typhoon is expected to make landfall over northern Cagayan this evening.

Cagayan, Babuyan island, Calayan island and Northern Isabela were placed under storm signal no. 3.
More prayers, please.
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Update to my post this morning: The typhoon has veered but I don't know whether the new path is better or worse. A correspondent has just informed me that it's headed for northern Luzon (the main island), then onto East Asia. He added, "Bad news."

Canada is already taking in Filipino refugees from the earlier storm. Doctors Without Borders, the International Red Cross, and Christian organizations from just about every denomination are gearing up to pour in fresh aid, but the terror is that parts of Luzon are already flooded from the earlier storm.

And this is the worst time for a huge natural disaster to strike anywhere in the world; aid organizations, both public and private, are stretched very thin because of the economic downturn.

So whatever prayers you know, please say them now. The report this morning said the storm is expected to make landfall shortly before or after the dawn. So news should start coming in within about two hours as to how the storm is breaking on land.

Memo to Glenn Beck: Don't whine; it's unseemly

Mr Beck needs to get a grip. He needs to stop complaining to his radio audience that people on the Left and Right are out to get him. This is like complaining he's being attacked by a gang of nematodes. Who the hell pays any attention to these critics unless they're taking aim at Glenn Beck?

Mr Beck, follow the advice that the Duchess of Windsor embroidered on a pillow: "Never complain, never explain."

Let those who're sniping at you, to include the White House, sputter and stew all they want. And just keep doing what you're doing on your TV show because you're right on time.

Memo to Valerie Jarrett: Get the hell out of Washington

I've lost count of the number of times Valerie Jarrett's dizzy advice to her dear 'baby brother' President Barack Obama has gotten egg all over his face. But with the Olympics stunt she's managed to get egg all over the nation's face, and reinforce the image of The Ugly American Cubed that Hillary Clinton presented in China and Africa.

I don't want to hear it's a 'save' that President Obama met with General Stanley McChrystal for 25 minutes aboard Air Force One in Copenhagen. Mr Obama would have gone to Copenhagen whether or not he could have met with the general.

Worse, Jarrett is so much enjoying her power-tripping in the White House that she couldn't keep her mouth shut. She had to tell the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet that "an apt comparison to Chicago's IOC campaign would be the Iowa caucus," by way of defending Obama's intervention with the IOC.

No it wouldn't be an apt comparison, you hare-brained hayseed. Everyone knew that South America was long overdue as an Olympics host. The whole world knew with the exception of Oprah and Jarrett.

So while it's not unheard of for a national leader to make a personal appeal to the IOC, in this case and at this particular juncture -- during which Brazil along with other BRIC countries is having to clean up the mess the Federal Reserve made -- it was awful form for an American President to butt his nose in.

I also don't want to hear that Jarrett wasn't the one who twisted Obama's arm to make a personal pitch for Chicago; of course she did it. The upshot was that his Iowa caucus style of campaigning looked exactly as it was: an American President throwing his weight around, using his popularity in an attempt to embarrass the IOC into giving the 2010 Olympics venue to Chicago.

Memo to President Obama: Try that kind of stunt one more time and see how quickly your popularity evaporates within the 'global community.'

I understand that Mr Obama and the First Lady are very attached to Jarrett and that she's given them great moral support during their transition period to the White House. Ding ding ding! Transition time's up! Time for Ms Jarrett to take herself back to Chicago.

And by the way she's welcome to take Hillary Clinton with her. Why Mr Obama hasn't yet told Ms Clinton to resign is beyond me. I keep getting complaints from readers that I've not been addressing foreign policy issues since Mr Obama came to office. It's because I'm too busy spitting hayseeds out of my mouth every time I study the doings at State. Ptweh! Pteweh! Go! Go! In the name of God, go! Out of Washington, the two of you! Shoo!

"Super typhoon" Parma takes aim at flood-soaked Philippines

Readers who've been with this blog for years might have noticed that I become short-tempered while I watch a major hurricane head for a human population. I've never known why this is so; perhaps I resent disrupting my schedule for hours of prayer. Whatever the reason for my foul mood this time is no exception.

So I really do wish "some" weather experts would stop using the vague term "climate change." And I really, really, really wish reporters would stop adding such vague statements to their news items about a natural disaster bearing down on people.

With that off my chest, the storm is expected to hit land before dawn on Saturday. (The Philippines is 13 hours ahead of the eastern United States time zone.)

This one looks very bad -- so bad it's been dubbed a "super" typhoon. Typhoons can create huge storm surges in addition to the high winds and heavy rains they generate. Parts of Luzon are already a disaster area and still flooded because of tropical storm Ketsana:
Philippines looks to God as super typhoon looms
By Mynardo Macaraig (AFP - 1:00 AM EDT)

MANILA — Millions of terrified Philippine flood survivors hunkered down Friday as a super typhoon approached, with officials pleading for God to save the disaster-struck Southeast Asian country from more devastation.

Typhoon Parma, packing gusts of 230 kilometres (145 miles) an hour, was forecast to hit rural areas in the north of the Philippines' main island of Luzon before dawn on Saturday.

The government warned Parma would tear down houses in its direct path, while likely bringing more heavy rain and high winds to the nation's capital, Manila, and nearby areas still recovering from record floods last weekend.

"I am more worried about the wind, the damage it can do, breaking window glass, and blowing the roof off the house. Floods are easier to face," said Annette Kawilan, whose Manila house was flooded in Saturday's deluge.

"Basically you want to remain where you are because you want to save your things, your family. We want to be together. We don't know where to go."

Kawilan was among the more than three million people affected by tropical storm Ketsana, which killed at least 293 people as it pounded Manila and surrounding areas with the heaviest rains in four decades.

Nearly 400,000 people remain in under-prepared schools, gymnasiums and other makeshift evacuation centres.

The rains from Parma threaten to worsen already squalid conditions and further hamper relief supplies for the survivors in those shelters.

Many parts of Manila and neighbouring regions also remain under water -- with mud, debris and trash still blocking drains -- so any more rain could lead to another surge in flood waters.

And because of Ketsana, much soil across Luzon cannot absorb too much more rain, meaning storms do not have to be as heavy as normal for floods to occur, the government weather station warned.

Meanwhile, hundreds of kilometres to the north in the rural provinces of Isabela and Aurora, people were preparing for the full onslaught of Parma, which the government has termed a "super typhoon".

"These gusts are strong enough to destroy houses, to rip the roofs off houses," Nathaniel Cruz, head of the weather forecasting unit, said in a radio interview.

"The best thing we can do for the lives of our countrymen is to look for the strongest building where our countrymen can take refuge while the storm is passing."

Cruz warned people in Aurora and Isabela not to be fooled into thinking the typhoon would not wreak havoc, just because the winds had yet to be be felt.

"They might think it isn't something to worry about but from our radar and satellite image, we can see it is an incredibly strong typhoon," he said.

The governor of Aurora, Bella Angara, said officials were preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

"The prediction is that this typhoon is very strong. Our prayers are that no lives will be lost. God answered our prayers (during tropical storm Ketsana) and we are hopeful we will be spared again," Angara said on radio.

Most of the Philippines' population of 92 million is devoutly Catholic.

Aurora is a mainly rural province of mountains and rice plains, with a population of about 187,000 people. Isabela is another fertile farming region but much bigger and has a population of about 1.4 million.

The Philippines is normally battered by about 20 typhoons annually, but the pattern has changed in recent years and the ferocity of some has increased.

Some weather experts have blamed the changing nature and pattern of the typhoons on climate change.
If the AFP reporter wants to speculate about typhoon patterns this year, a correspondent informs me that sunspot activity has been very low, with activity in 2009 on track to be the fifth lowest since 1913, and with 2008 the second lowest since that year.

Whether sunspots significantly impact Earth's climate is still a matter for speculation according to the National Weather Service. But Don Easterbrook, a global warming skeptic and Professor Emeritus of geology at Western Washington University, has claimed there's a cause-and-effect relationship between sunspot activity and measured changes in global temperatures on Earth.

And this is an El Niño year, although I've no idea whether it's affecting typhoon activity in the Western Pacific Ocean.

All I know for sure is that a whole lot of trouble is going to strike Luzon unless by some miracle the storm veers away from land.

Prayer time.

Thursday, October 1

Not that Chinese bureaucrats are anal-retentive or anything

The term anal-retentive is used conversationally to describe a person with such attention to detail that the obsession becomes an annoyance to others, and can be carried out to the detriment of the anal-retentive person.

October 1:
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's air force deployed a "magic-like" range of chemicals and technology to clear Beijing's smoggy air for a grand parade marking the 60th anniversary of Communist China ... Chemists and officials worked for weeks on the country's most ambitious ever attempt at weather modification ... The evening before the parade chemicals were fired into the hazy skies, and a light rain washed the city clean. Surrounding provinces had already been loading clouds with silver iodide and dry ice, to try and force rain to fall before it reached Beijing ... Contingency plans allowed for the teams to use one kind of chemicals to bring down rain in the parade area, and another to hold it off ...
October 1:
BEIJING (Reuters) - China celebrated its ascendance with a show of goose-stepping troops, gaudy floats and nuclear-capable missiles in the nation's capital on Thursday, 60 years after Mao Zedong proclaimed its embrace of communism.

Thousands of troops cleared central Beijing of all passers-by for the anniversary parade for the birth of the People's Republic of China on October 1, 1949 ... Even those living on the parade route were banned from peeking out their windows. Flights into Beijing were stopped during the parade and even kites and pet pigeons grounded.

"Go home! Leave now! Go watch TV at home!" a portly policeman bellowed through a bullhorn at a crowd trying to gather miles from the square.
August 22, 2007:
... China has banned Buddhist monks in Tibet from reincarnating without government permission. According to a statement issued by the State Administration for Religious Affairs, the law, which goes into effect next month and strictly stipulates the procedures by which one is to reincarnate, is "an important move to institutionalize management of reincarnation."
Self-described China experts will tell you that the whole problem is the Chinese Communist Party and their attempts to hold onto power. If only the problem was that logical.

I suppose you wouldn't believe me if told you that the reason China isn't a democracy is because Chinese technocrats are still trying to figure out how to perfect democratic government.

Ah, well, this isn't the era for an American to point out Chinese blind spots. But it doesn't have to be perfect, for crying out loud. You just get out there and do it.

Sen no Rikyū, where are you when we need you?

Wednesday, September 30

Barack Obama and the family of William Ayers

Not long after posting the following entry I heard an interview with Newt Gingrich on the Tom Joyner Morning Show, a syndicated radio show aimed at the 'black community.' Newt described bipartisan efforts to improve America's schools and had high praise for Arne Duncan, President Barack Obama's Secretary of Education.

I've stated before on this blog that it's my firm belief that if not for Steve Diamond sounding the alarm last year there would have been a very different education secretary, one whose views reflected those of William Ayers's.

Although Steve's warnings were suppressed by the mainstream media during the presidential campaign, he is a well known figure in labor union circles. He is also well known to Obama's circle, and particularly known for his tenacity.

So while Arne Duncan is not perfect, next to what could have been in charge of American public education reform he is a fortunate pick.

But now to turn back the clock, to before Barack Obama came to the White House --

Introduction

From Who "sent" Obama? by Stephen Diamond, originally published April 22, 2008:
In Chicago politics a key question has always been, who “sent” you? The classic phrase is “We don’t want nobody that nobody sent” -- from an anecdote of Abner Mikva’s, the former White House Counsel (President Clinton) and now retired federal judge. (And someone I campaigned for while in high school when he ran, unsuccessfully, for Congress in the early 70s.)

As a young student, Mikva wanted to help out his local Democratic Party machine on the south side of Chicago. In 1948, he walked into the local committeeman’s office to volunteer for Adlai Stevenson and Paul Douglas and was immediately asked: “Who sent you?”

Mikva replied, “Nobody sent me.”

And the retort came back from the cigar chomping pol: “Well, we don’t want nobody that nobody sent.”

So it is reasonable to ask, who “sent” Barack Obama? In other words, how can his meteoric rise to political prominence be explained? And, of course, in an answer to that question might lie a better understanding of his essential world view. When I started looking at this question a few weeks ago I quickly grew more concerned about the kinds of people that seem to have been very important in Obama’s ascendancy in Chicago area politics. It is the connection of some of these people to authoritarian politics that has me particularly concerned. And a key concern of this blog has been the rise of authoritarian tendencies in the global labor movement.

The people linked to Senator Obama grew to political maturity in the extreme wings of the late 60s student and antiwar movements. They adopted some of the worst forms of sectarian and authoritarian politics. They helped undermine the emergence of a healthy relationship between students and others in American society who were becoming interested in alternative views of social, political and economic organization. In fact, at the time, some far more constructive activists had a hard time comprehending groups like the Weather Underground. Their tactics were so damaging that some on the left thought that government or right wing elements helped create them. There is some evidence, in fact, that that was true (for example, the Cointelpro effort of the federal government.)

Today, however, many of these individuals continue to hold political views that hardened in that period. Many of them have joined up with other wings of the late 60s and 70s movements, in particular the pro-China maoist elements of that era and are now playing a role in the labor movement and elsewhere. And yet this question of Obama’s links to people from this milieu has not been thoroughly explored by any of the many thousands of journalists, bloggers and political operatives looking so closely at Obama.

The most recent effort was by Jonathan Kaufman in the Wall Street Journal, who argued that a critical connection for Obama was his links to some in the wealthy and prominent Jewish community in Chicago. This article contains some important insights and is well worth reading. But, I think Kaufman gets it wrong.

So, who did “send” Obama? The key I think is his ties not to well connected uber lawyer Newton Minow, as Kaufman suggests, but more likely to the family of (in)famous former Weather Underground leader Bill Ayers – not just Bill Ayers, but also Bill’s father Tom Ayers and his brother John as well. [...]
***********************
On Friday Stephen Diamond sent me his latest post on his King Harvest blog, which detailed his interview with a retired postman, Alan Hulton. Mr Hulton claimed to have had a conversation with Barack Obama outside the home of William Ayers's parents that Steve judged must have taken place in the mid-1980s.

Hulton's account contains a startling claim that if true might place Barack Obama's relationship with William Ayers much further back than he's admitted to the press, and which at the least suggests Obama had more than a casual relationship with the Ayers family.

As I have mentioned many times on this blog, Steve Diamond's professional credentials are impeccable. And his life-long involvement with Democratic and Leftist politics, and his native-born Chicagoan background, give tremendous weight to his analyses of Barack Obama, his Leftist associations, and the Chicago political mileu in which Obama moved.

What follows is my exchange with Steve after he asked what I thought of his post about Hulton.

"Steve:
I think Hulton's account has merit; I doubt he'd have any reason to lie and he seems a credible witness. So, in light of all I know about the Ayers-Obama relationship, I am willing to give the account the benefit of the doubt.

Yet the account could be challenged by asking why Hulton's memory wasn't jogged earlier. Hadn't he seen a photograph of Obama when he became a U.S. senator from Hulton's home state and then became a national political figure even before the presidential run?

There are plausible answers to the question and equally plausible ones about why Hulton couldn't remember the month or even make a good estimate as to the year during which he had the conversation with Obama. Plenty of people can remember conversations in great detail from decades earlier without being able to remember the year in which the conversation took place.

On the other hand, plenty of people can't remember the exact details of a conversation they heard only 15 minutes before. And people can also unconsciously 're-do' what they remember, if the recollection makes better sense to them rephrased, or to bring their recollection in line with other information.

That's why police immediately separate eyewitnesses when arriving on the scene of an accident or crime and question them individually out of earshot of the other witnesses. They know a witness who sounds very assured in his recollection of the event can influence the other witnesses' recollections.

So it is open to question as to whether Hulton's recollection of the conversation is accurate in all details. Yet the more one knows about the Obama-Ayers relationship, which includes the speculation that they knew each other as far back as Obama's days at Columbia University, the more one is willing to consider Hulton's account, which I assume is your viewpoint.

However, if we exclude those who suffer from Obama Derangement Syndrome, I think the general reader coming to the Obama-Ayers subject for the first time would want considerable background before appreciating the key part of Hulton's account, which is that Obama was at the Ayers home to thank the family for supporting his education.

So I was on the fence about posting your interview without first writing a lengthy introduction, which frankly I haven't had time or inclination to do.

The big question is whether Hulton's account, even if perfectly accurate in all details, has importance beyond a footnote to the history of the 2008 political campaign.

Given that Bill Ayers's father was a pillar of the Chicago business community and that Bill was a respectable member of the academic establishment by the time of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge project, I'd never understood why Obama went to such lengths to hide his working relationship with Bill Ayers.

Hulton's account suggests that the real reason Obama created a smokescreen had less to do with Bill Ayers's past as a terrorist and more to do with the Ayers family mentoring his entire professional career. If that were true it would overturn the narrative Obama created about how he rose in politics.

And it would mean you were on the money last year when you answered your own question about who "sent" Obama by suggesting it was the Ayers family.

After I read Hulton's account I re-read your Who "sent" Obama? post and Jonathan Kaufman's April 21, 2008 profile of Barack Obama for the Wall Street Journal, which your post was meant to answer.

After reading Kaufman's piece at this distance from the presidential election campaign, for the first time it struck me how influential his profile of Obama must have been during the campaign.

Steve, Kaufman sold Obama to Democratic Jewish voters as the kind of gentile who was practically Jewish -- the kind they would be happy to invite to Shabbat lunch. And by emphasizing Obama's connections with wealthy, influential Jews in Chicago, Kaufman not only tamped down concerns that Obama was a radical who didn't like Israel, he also positioned him to the entire American business community as a capitalism-friendly centrist.

The kicker is that Jonathan Kaufman, who had been a business writer with The Wall Street Journal for 15 years, is now the Education Editor at Bloomberg News. I learned that when I visited his website after re-reading his piece on Obama. Yet if you look at Kaufman's resume you'll see there is nothing in his career or educational background that would suit him to write on education issues.

I don't know when Kaufman got the new job or the circumstances under which this happened. What I do know is that the mainstream media preferred to entertain Kaufman's portrayal of Barack Obama rather than the disturbing questions you raised.

Even Fox News Channel, which during the presidential campaign harped on Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers and Ayers's terrorist past, didn't drill down to the complex questions about the American education establishment that Obama's relationship with William Ayers represented, and which Sol Stern and you brought out in April 2008.

By the time FNC turned their attention to Obama's involvement with the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, it was far too late in the presidential campaign for them to do the education angle justice, even if they'd had the inclination. Or perhaps they didn't want to overturn a rock that hid just as much about Republican complicity with Ayers's educational ideas as the Democratic support.

I dunno, Steve. The truth was out there on the blogosphere as early as April 2008 about Ayer's educational ideas and Obama's support of them. And you certainly made the mainstream press cognizant of the issues. But people believe what they want to believe. The reality is that many American voters wanted to believe in the narrative Obama presented about himself.

On that grim note, and after looking over what I've just written, I think I'll get off the fence by publishing this letter as an introduction to your interview with Hulton.

One question: Can you give any background on how and when you came in contact with Hulton? Did he approach you after reading one of your pieces, or did you hear about him?

Pundita"

"Pundita:
Very thoughtful analysis and thanks for the background on Kaufman.

Alan Hulton posted a comment last week on a conservative blog (something like the 347th comment) saying he had met Obama. It mentioned he was a mailman and I thought it sounded real so I emailed him and he responded. We set up a phone call and I spoke with him for close to two hours taking careful notes.

Steve"
***********************
Barack Obama’s Visit to the Other Ayers’ House
By Stephen Diamond, September 25, 2009

Barack Obama visited the house of Tom and Mary Ayers, parents of former Weather Underground activist turned education professor Bill Ayers, in the mid-1980s to thank the Ayers’ for their support of his “education,” according to Alan Hulton, the letter carrier who delivered mail to the Ayers’ Glen Ellyn home at that time. Glen Ellyn is a suburb of Chicago, southwest of the city.

Hulton spoke to King Harvest at length about his experience.

It is acknowledged widely now that Bill Ayers and Obama had a close and longstanding relationship because of the role that Ayers played in promoting Obama’s career including, for example, Ayers’ appointment of Obama as Chairman of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, the $150 million education reform effort that Ayers founded in 1994. Bill Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn held a campaign event in their Hyde Park home for Barack Obama in late 1995.

This blog has also suggested, however, that Obama may have had a relationship with Tom Ayers in light of the importance of the senior Ayers in Chicago politics and his role in the same educational issues as Obama. In 1988 Obama’s Developing Communities Project (the “DCP”) joined the Alliance for Better Chicago Schools (“ABC’s”), a lobbying alliance, to push for the reform of Chicago schools through the creation of so-called “Local School Councils” (“LSC’s”) that would watchdog teachers and administrators.

The proposal was very controversial and groups like Operation PUSH headed by Jesse Jackson did not support it because many teachers were black –- it was one of the first stable middle class careers a black person, and black women in particular, could aspire to in Chicago. Tom Ayers and Bill Ayers were strong supporters of the LSC’s, however, and Chicago United, a group founded by Tom Ayers, joined ABCs too. Bill Ayers became chair of ABCs.

In addition, a senior Democratic party activist who was involved in the Obama campaign including direct contact with Obama confirmed that the relationship between Obama and Bill Ayers went back to the 1980s, the time period of Hulton’s encounter outside the home of Tom Ayers.

The Obama Presidential campaign denied any close ties between Obama and Bill Ayers and said initially they only met in late 1995 when Ayers and his wife Bernardine Dohrn hosted the event in support of Obama’s campaign for the Illinois State Senate. They later admitted the two had to have met earlier in light of the role both played at the Annenberg Challenge.

As President, Obama has not yet been asked about the Ayers relationship and has, as far as one can tell, never been asked about his relationship with Tom Ayers. Most recently, credible evidence has emerged that Bill Ayers ghostwrote the Obama memoir Dreams from My Father, which was published in 1995. [1]

The statement by Hulton is the first eyewitness account of a possible relationship between Obama and Tom Ayers and the first that dates his relationship with the Ayers family to the mid-1980s.

At the time of their encounter, Hulton recalls, Obama “looked about 19 years old” but was probably in his early 20s. Obama graduated from Columbia University in 1983 and moved to Chicago in 1985 at age 24 or 25 to head up the DCP, a fledgling community organization modeled after similar groups started by Saul Alinsky, on the south side of Chicago. The DCP had secured a grant from the Woods Fund, endowed by the Woods family, to finance the hiring of Obama.

The Woods family owned Sahara Coal Company, which supplied coal to utility companies in the Midwest possibly including Commonwealth Edison. Tom Ayers was Chairman and CEO of Commonwealth Edison from 1973 until 1980. Ayers died in June of 2007 at the age of 92 in Hyde Park where he had been living with his son Bill and Dohrn.

“Mrs. Ayers told me that her family had been helping out a brilliant young black man,” Hulton said and whom he believes she said was from Kenya. Hulton said that over the period of six to ten years that he delivered mail to the Ayers home he had numerous conversations with Mrs. Ayers, one conversation with Thomas Ayers and several brief encounters with Bernardine Dohrn who he said lived at the home for several months at one point in time. He never met or saw Bill Ayers at the home.

Hulton explained that he knew Tim Ayers, the son of Tom and brother of Bill, when they were both students at Glenbard High School, which draws students from the towns of Glen Ellyn and Lombard, Illinois. Over time the Ayers’ parents became aware of the connection to their son Tim and that led to a friendlier relationship between Hulton and Tom and Mary Ayers.

“They tipped me generously at Christmastime,” Hulton recalled.

One day Hulton found himself on the sidewalk outside the Ayers home at 199 N. Montclair Avenue near the corner of Revere Road just after he had delivered the mail. The house was “very nice and attractive and more expensive than some in Glen Ellyn because it was closer to downtown, but it did not stand out among the houses on that block.” He said the largest and most expensive homes were actually on Revere, around the corner from the Ayers’ home.

As Hulton was on the sidewalk walking away from the Ayers house a tall and thin young black man was coming up the same sidewalk towards the Ayers house.

Hulton recalls that Obama said hello and introduced himself and stopped to chat with him in front of the Ayers house. “I recall that his ears stuck out a little bit. He was more gaunt then than he appears now. His name was an unusual one and when I saw his photo during the campaign it brought back my memory of the event,” Hulton said.

Mr. Obama explained that he had taken the train out from Chicago to visit the Ayers’ in order to thank them for their help with his “education.” At this time, Mr. Obama had recently graduated from Columbia and would soon enter Harvard Law School. Hulton and Obama “spoke for a few minutes, first chatting about the Ayers family,” Hulton said. Hulton said he did not learn whether the help Obama received from the Ayers’ was financial or in some other form.

Hulton said it was an exceptional event to encounter a black man on his route and that Obama may have felt it prudent to introduce himself to the letter carrier before approaching the Ayers house. Hulton usually delivered mail on Montclair at mid-day, “sometimes as early as 11:30 in the morning or as late as 12:30 or 1:00 PM.”

Hulton says he recalls when the very first black family moved into the upper middle class white suburb in the 1960s. Hulton says at the time, after he had come out of military service, he was a supporter of Martin Luther King who had pressed for fair housing in the Chicago area. “I took some flak about my support for civil rights from my fellow workers at the time,” he said.

Mr. Hulton recalls that he probably asked what Mr. Obama was studying in school and at one point Mr. Obama said that he intended to become President of the United States. Mr. Hulton said he was “taken aback” by the statement but recalls that he did not think Mr. Obama was “arrogant, but just self assured and a person with a lot of self confidence.” “It was not said with hubris,” Hulton recalled, “but with an air of self-assuredness.”

“I told him there was no reason why he couldn’t become president,” Hulton recalled. Obama was dressed “nicely but casually, a slacks and shirt, not jeans and a t-shirt, but definitely not a coat or tie,” he said. After the brief conversation Hulton continued on his route and did not turn back to see whether the Ayers’ were at home or whether Obama entered their house.

Hulton delivered mail in Glen Ellyn for 39 years with two years off to serve in the U.S. military. He retired in 2001 and is now 66 years old. King Harvest confirmed his employment as a letter carrier with Ray Wasz, Finance Supervisor of the Glen Ellyn Post Office.

Hulton said he encountered Tim Ayers at a high school reunion recently where Tim spoke in a “wide eyed way” of Bernardine Dohrn’s career as a law professor. “She is a star and her students love her,” Hulton recalls Ayers saying.

Dohrn is a member of the law school faculty at Northwestern although she was prevented from becoming a member of the New York bar because of her criminal record and background in the Weather Underground. Hulton said that Mrs. Ayers told him that her husband Tom was trying to help Dohrn become a member of the bar.

Dohrn and Ayers surfaced from the underground and turned themselves into the authorities in the early 1980s. Charges against Ayers were dropped and Dohrn entered into a plea bargain that allowed her to avoid jail time.

But later she was jailed for six months for her refusal to testify in front of a grand jury about her possible role in providing false identity cards to several former Weather Underground comrades who participated in a bank robbery where two police officers and a security guard were killed.

Mrs. Ayers told Hulton that she and her husband had been in contact with their son Bill and Bernardine while they were underground using “code” to communicate. “They had ‘ways to communicate’ she told me,” Hulton said. Hulton encountered Dohrn three or four times during his time as the Ayers’ letter carrier because he had to confirm that she lived there and secure her signature for certified mail deliveries to her at the Glen Ellyn home. Hulton said Dohrn was never friendly with him but rather “was a sourpuss, she never smiled.”

Hulton had one encounter with Tom Ayers who politely asked Hulton about his work. Hulton said he told Ayers that he thought there were problems with the senior management of the Post Office and that he wasn’t always happy about the work habits of some of his fellow workers.

“You know, ordinary gripes about work,” Hulton recalls. “I couldn’t believe how he responded. He started to talk about workers having to struggle to survive and about peasants and the proletariat. It made me think later that he might be a Marxist!”

1) See also Steve Diamond's September 28, 2009 post, Did Bill Ayers Really Write Obama’s Memoir "Dreams from My Father?"

Friday, September 25

Iran's underground nuclear facility, Muammar al-Gaddafi's missing egg rolls, and Glenn Beck's shaggy frog joke

June 19, 2009, from a New York Times report:
"When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei used his speech at Friday Prayer in Tehran to denounce Britain as “the most evil” of Iran’s enemies, he was striking a chord with a deep resonance in the psyche of Iranians, the legacy of a long history of British imperial intrusions into their country’s affairs."
June 22, 2009, from a Christopher Hitchens essay titled Persian Paranoia: Iranian leaders will always believe Anglo-Saxons are plotting against them.
One of the signs of Iran's underdevelopment is the culture of rumor and paranoia that attributes all ills to the manipulation of various demons and satans. And, of course, the long and rich history of British imperial intervention in Persia does provide some support for the notion. But you have no idea how deep is the primitive belief that it is the Anglo-Saxons -- more than the CIA, more even than the Jews -- who are the puppet masters of everything that happens in Iran.
September 25, 2009, from Times Online reporting at the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh:
British intelligence played 'big part' in Iranian nuclear discovery

Britain played a key role in gathering intelligence to expose Iran’s secret nuclear facility, according to Western diplomatic sources.

Officials in Pittsburgh said today that the British intelligence services played a “big part” in the hunt for concealed uranium enrichment capacity in Iran.

French and US intelligence agencies were also involved in the operation that led to exposure of the secret underground plant. Israel was among a number of other countries aware of what was being built.
If Glenn Beck hadn't handed a fake frog to former Ambassador John Bolton, if the Letterman show hadn't plastered their own translation over a portion of Gaddafi's ravings at the U.N. (Gaddafi complains that the wording of a Chinese restaurant takeout menu cheated him of his egg rolls), I might have been able to hold it together after seeing the Times Online headline and write an analysis worthy of the seriousness of the topic. But I'm sorry I'm laughing too hard to continue.

Here -- here's a New York Times link to the fast-moving story and reaction from a parade of officials, more of which will be plastered all over the evening news.

All else I can manage at this moment is to gasp out a warning between peals of laughter:

I had to suffer through eight years of dealing with Bush Derangement Syndrome, which prevented otherwise reasonable people from counting to ten before they made accusations against Bush that were based on faulty or incomplete information. I don't want to suffer through a replay named Obama Derangement Syndrome.

There are things going on above the security clearances of the talking heads, including John Bolton, who've called President Obama stupid and worse for scrapping the missile defense shield project in Eastern Europe.

Calm down, eh? Count to ten. Remember John Batchelor's dictum that the first three reports in war are always wrong. And take two doses of Glenn Beck's shrewd zaniness and call me in the morning.

The ties that bind: More on the William Ayers-Barack Obama relationship

"That real story is the ball the [New York] Times must hide because it leads inevitably to the conclusion that the fundamental political world view of Ayers, not his tactical foray into bombings for a few years, is influencing the Obama candidacy."
-- Stephen Diamond, October 2008

I doubt that anyone has written with greater knowledge than Dr Stephen Diamond about the relationship between William Ayers and Barack Obama. Yet despite Steve's strenuous efforts to inform the public and the professional reporters who contacted him last year, most Americans remain unaware of the true nature of the relationship and its most important implications.

So running alongside the Ayers-Obama story is another one -- a news media story that in some respects is even more unsettling than Ayers's educational and political ideas and their influence on Barack Obama.

It was not only The New York Times that obscured the truth during the political campaign; Fox News Channel, for all their eagerness to point out William Ayers's past as a terrorist and connect Obama with him, completely missed the real story until late in the presidential campaign -- and even then did a very incomplete job of explaining it to their audience. Other news organizations did no better when they caught up with the Chicago Annenberg Challenge story.

The truth is that the Democratic-leaning mainstream news media spent decades suppressing information about the American Left, and the Republican-leaning media were only interested in the most superficial critiques of the Left.

The upshot is that when Steve Diamond arose to explain to the general public the complexities of the relationship between William Ayers and Barack Obama, the circles they moved in, and the implications for American education and an Obama presidency, he might as well have been speaking Greek.

Even the news outlets that wanted to deal with the story during the election campaign simply didn't have the time and ability to undertake the massive background reporting that would have brought the public up to speed.

So it wasn't surprising that many voters complained they didn't understand what Barack Obama meant by hope and change. He always spoke with great clarity about what he meant -- provided one understood the American Left and its referents.

That Americans outside the Left are slowly getting an idea of what he meant, as his presidency unfolds -- this is a hard way to wise up.

Below is Steve Diamond's latest essay at his King Harvest blog about the Ayers-Obama relationship, published here with his permission. For background I suggest you read the two 2008 essays he links to in the writing.

Peeling the Obama/Ayers Onion
By Stephen Diamond
September 24, 2009

A layer at a time, the truth about the decades' old relationship between Barack Obama and former Weather Underground terrorist turned 'educator' Bill Ayers is becoming clear.

The latest revelation is a report by Christopher Andersen in his new biography of the Obamas that, according to a neighbor and supporter of Ayers and Obama, Ayers ghost wrote Obama’s memoir Dreams From My Father.

Author Jack Cashill had first suggested that this was the case in a series of blog posts pointing out the striking rhetorical similarities in books by Ayers, a prolific writer, and the Obama tome.

As loyal readers of King Harvest and its predecessor Global Labor know, back in April 2008 I first surmised that Obama had a longstanding relationship with Ayers and probably also with Ayers’ father, Tom, the prominent Chicagoan dating back to the 1980s.

One relevant fact among many from that time period: Obama led his Developing Communities Project in support of a controversial education reform effort that Bill and Tom Ayers also supported even though mainstream black organizations like Jesse Jackson’s Operation PUSH were opposed to it.

Despite the risk to Obama politically Obama’s DCP was the only black organization in the lobbying alliance pushing the creation of Local School Councils in Chicago. Mainstream black groups like Operation PUSH understood the Councils would create a watchdog group over the shoulder of teachers and administrators, many of them black, and so refused to support the reform.

Presumably Obama made a calculation that backing the Ayers family effort was worth it -- of course, he likely also supported the teacher-hostile reform itself. Later in 1995 Bill Ayers would return that favor and appoint Obama as Chairman of Board of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge. One of the central activities of the CAC was to funnel money into support for that very same Local School Council structure, then under political attack from Mayor Daley.

(Interestingly, this issue -- watchdogging teachers and administrators -- is one reason why it is hard to accept the idea of the right that Ayers and Obama are traditional left wing radicals. In fact, as I have explained elsewhere on the blog, Ayers and Dorhn are really neo-stalinists -- a type of anti-capitalist that thinks there are bureaucratic and authoritarian solutions to problems created by capitalism. No doubt, for a period of time at least, Obama found common cause in this set of ideas.)

A senior Democratic Party activist in the Obama campaign who had direct contact with the candidate confirmed the longstanding ties between Bill Ayers and Obama. This individual was concerned, in fact, that Ayers and his wife Bernardine Dohrn were exercising an unhealthy influence on the candidate including proposing appointments for the campaign and new administration.

A second source with personal knowledge of visitors to the Chicago area home of Tom Ayers in the 1980s has stated that Obama was friends with the entire Ayers family including Bill and Tom.

And Ayers himself wrote that the Obamas were “family friends” -- in an epilogue to his own memoirs that only appeared in a new post-election edition late last year that was then conveniently ignored by the mainstream media such as The New York Times.

The Times interviewed me 5 separate times using 3 different reporters and despite the clear evidence of the deep relationship between Obama and Ayers, accepted at face value statements by the Obama campaign that the two only met in either early or late 1995 (The Times changed its story on this) and did not really have much contact at all. I dissected this dissembling act on Global Labor here.

Of course, neither Dorhn nor Ayers have done much to distance themselves from their authoritarian late 60s politics. They have stopped throwing bombs but express no regrets for their violent tactics. Ayers himself has only gone so far as to say that violence is “probably” not the answer today. They are strong supporters of Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez as they were once, at least, of Castro, Ho Chi Minh and Daniel Ortega.

The appointment of avowed maoist and reverse racist Van Jones as Green Jobs czar was likely the kind of individual the Democratic Party activist in the campaign was concerned about. Obama advisor Valerie Jarrett, whose family is also friends with Ayers and Dohrn (Jarett’s mother appointed Tom Ayers to the board of her foundation, the Erikson Institute), was responsible for appointing Jones and allowing him to avoid the ordinary vetting process.

Jarrett claimed publicly just a few weeks before Jones resigned that the Obama team had been watching Jones for many years. Of course this would have included the period when Jones was active in STORM, a maoist sect in the bay area.

Many on the Democratic left -- such as the teachers’ union official Leo Casey -- have dismissed the claims of links to Ayers in the narrow interest of electing a Democrat, any Democrat, to rescue organized labor.

Some on the Democratic left argue that it does not matter because Obama would just jettison the Ayers types around the candidate once in office and become a mainstream politician. The Van Jones appointment suggests that has not been the case. At a minimum it suggests there is some dishonesty at work.

More likely it suggests some basic disconnect between the core Obama team, the inner circle that not only has connections with Ayers and Dohrn but is not actually embarrassed by them, and political reality.

That should concern everyone across the political spectrum.

Monday, September 21

Glenn Beck, the TIME magazine article about him, and what's really bad about the American news media

It's now clear that the Obama administration and their media toadies want to tamp down Glenn Beck's influence. They're making fools of themselves in the process, which only provides material for the next Glenn Beck TV show.

Case in point: this howler from TIME magazine's September 17 cover story, which asks, Is Glenn Beck bad for America?
Beck mines the timeless theme of the corrupt Them thwarting a virtuous Us. This flexible narrative often contains genuinely uncomfortable truths. [...] But he also spins yarns of less substance. He tells his viewers that Obama's volunteerism efforts are really an attempt to create a "civilian national-security force that is just as strong, just as powerful as the military."
So then Glenn aired a video clip of Barack Obama saying he wanted a civilian national-security force "that is just as strong, just as powerful as the military."

The funniest part is that although Glenn mentioned the TIME article he didn't point out it had wrongly attributed an Obama quote to him. Why should he bother? He knew that anyone who saw his show that day and read the article would spot the gaffe.

(The clip was part of a montage that Glenn titled, "Obama in his own words." We'll see more of the montage on today's show.)

Was it really a gaffe, or did the author, David Von Drehle, deliberately misrepresent? The Obama quote about the civilian national-security force is well known on the blogosphere, at least the portion which keeps a close eye on Obama, and to Fox News Channel viewers. I doubt that David, who's been in the reporting business a long time, would risk his reputation over a quote that's so easily traceable to its correct source. So I'd guess he honestly didn't know that the words he attributed to Glenn were actually Obama's.

How could a reporter who's been in the business a long time fall down so spectacularly on his fact checking? (And how could the TIME fact checker do the same?) It happens easily when your goal drifts from informing the public to pressing your point of view.

It's clear from the article that David Von Drehle is not terribly interested in talking about Glenn Beck; he provides just enough information about Beck to set up the point of his writing, which is that America's polarized politics have generated an industry -- an industry that's highly profitable to its standard bearers.

That's exactly how David, and TIME, got into hot water with the American Left.

Jamison Foser nearly had an aneurysm over the TIME article because it blurted out that Media Matters has a multi-million dollar budget and, horror of horrors, named Media Matters as an opposite to the right-wing pole of the industry, which David assumes Glenn Beck represents.

To give you some idea of the melee, Jamison's salvo, which he fired off from his perch at Media Matters, is titled, How Time magazine enables Glenn Beck's lies. According to the Washington Post's Joel Auerbach, Foser isn't the only lefty who's furious with TIME; he mentions that Greg Mitchell at the Huffington Post makes the same point as Jamison. "And no doubt you can find similar pieces all over blogworld."

No doubt.

As to how Joel got involved, David is a friend of his and a reporter he admires. So then it was war. Jamison counter-attacked in another piece he titled, WaPo reporter and "close friend" of Von Drehle defends Beck profile; attacks me

Then Joel counter-counter attacked -- again, from his perch at The Washington Post. Then Jamison sputtered in an update to his own counter-counter attack:
And in his response, Achenbach accuses me of "false equivalence." Which is really kind of cute, given that that's one of the basic problems with his friend David Von Drehle's profile of Beck. Von Drehle draws false equivalence between crowd size estimates of 70,000 and a million; draws false equivalence between paranoia on right and left; between Beck and Olbermann. If only Achenbach could recognize false equivalence when it comes from his "close friend," we could have avoided this whole discussion.
There's another way the melee might have been avoided; that's if TIME had stuck with the advertised subject of their cover article: Glenn Beck. But no, they wanted to make a point. So without Glenn's permission -- he refused to be interviewed for the article -- they manipulated the public's interest in him to convey an editorial opinion to a captive audience.

Then TIME editors, and editors of other news outlets who think the public lives to pay to hear their opinions, complain that their rags are having a hard time staying in business. Then Barack Obama offers them his shoulder to cry on:
(The Hill - September 20) The president said he is "happy to look at" bills before Congress that would give struggling news organizations tax breaks if they were to restructure as nonprofit businesses.

"I haven't seen detailed proposals yet, but I'll be happy to look at them," Obama told the editors of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Toledo Blade in an interview.

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) has introduced S. 673, the so-called "Newspaper Revitalization Act," that would give outlets tax deals if they were to restructure as 501(c)(3) corporations. That bill has so far attracted one cosponsor, Cardin's Maryland colleague Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D).

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs had played down the possibility of government assistance for news organizations, which have been hit by an economic downturn and dwindling ad revenue.

In early May, Gibbs said that while he hadn't asked the president specifically about bailout options for newspapers, "I don't know what, in all honesty, government can do about it."

Obama said that good journalism is "critical to the health of our democracy," but expressed concern toward growing tends in reporting -- especially on political blogs, from which a groundswell of support for his campaign emerged during the presidential election.

"I am concerned that if the direction of the news is all blogosphere, all opinions, with no serious fact-checking, no serious attempts to put stories in context, that what you will end up getting is people shouting at each other across the void but not a lot of mutual understanding," he said.
By gum our President nails what's wrong with the TIME piece on Glenn Beck! Oh but that's right I forgot -- TIME isn't a blog.

David Von Drehle's piece for TIME reflects the most striking aspect of what's bad about America's news media. He was so intent on getting his own points across that he made only the most superficial pass at learning about Glenn Beck's points. Yet instead of editing David's ruminations and sending him back into the field to scare up more data, TIME published his opinion piece as an in-depth news report.

The upshot is that TIME is way off the beam when they lump Glenn with conservatives and with any political party.

Yet he can't be characterized as an Independent in the Lou Dobbs mold. The Americans who've closely observed Glenn Beck already know this. The last ones to know what he represents, and to understand the implications, will be the MLM (money losing media) and the Obama administration.

Monday, August 31

H1N1 Swine Flu: Anxiousness is not a scientific method

The following comment was left at RBO blog in response to my post "Dealing with H1N1 swine flu outbreaks in U.S. schools: CDC advice about non-medical strategies and what's wrong with it."

Author: STOP THE VAX
"Vaccines are POISON. The only one[s] who benefit from vaccines are PHARMACEUTICALS. Lots of Vitamin D will protect you from the flu and many other diseases. DON'T be fooled by paid off media hype. STOP the sickening assault on humanity." (1)

Unlikely the author bothered to read my post. The comment seems a stock blurb for insertion on any blog that mentions swine flu. But I decided to pretend there was a thinking person behind the comment:

TO: STOP THE VAX

You're overlooking certain facts about the era during the 1918-20 swine flu pandemic, which reportedly got off the ground as much as two years earlier with a very mild form of the swine flu strain:

  • The peoples who were worst hit by the virus were Pacific islanders. They lived in sunlight year round. They practically oozed Vitamin D. And they had very healthy fish-based diets and plenty of fresh fruits and vegetables.


  • In those days many people in the USA, even those who lived in cities, got plenty of sunlight so they were not deficient in Vitamin D.


  • And peoples in the USA got plenty of calcium and magnesium and plenty of whole, unprocessed grains. Because the soils they grew vegetables and fruits on weren't virtually depleted of trace minerals, as many soils are today, the produce was in better shape nutritionally than the modern versions. And of course the produce wasn't sprayed with tons of pesticides and other chemicals.


  • The Americans in those days ate free-range chickens that were free of antibiotics, and the eggs from those chickens were chock-full of lecithin and 'good' fatty acids. The Americans ate other meats as well, pork and beef, and fish, that were also free of antibiotics and other chemicals present in today's foods.


  • Yet despite their wholesome diet, Americans died in droves from swine flu. And many of those victims were young people with strong immune systems and they weren't prone to the range of immune-compromised illnesses, such as diabetes, that are the bane of life for many modern Americans.


  • As for China and India -- home to great curative concoctions that go back thousands of years -- the Chinese and Indians also died from the 1918 swine flu virus.


  • So what are you going to tell me now? That there's a special nutrient never before available outside the remotest region of Tibet, until a natural supplement website started selling it, which can prevent influenza infection?

    There are still mysteries of genetics; scientists still don't know why flu viruses strike some people and leave others alone. But proper nutrition can no more protect a person from being attacked by a flu virus than it can prevent electrocution, if a person steps on a live wire resting in a puddle of water.

    Nor can nutritional supplements protect the immune system from generating a reaction to an unrecognized viral invader -- a reaction that can be so violent it kills the host human or maims him for life.

    It could turn out that many so-called auto-immune diseases are actually a byproduct of an immune system's battle with a virus. Lots more research needs to be done in that area. But many deaths from influenza are actually from an immune system's friendly fire.

    The only viable protection is a vaccine that's well-matched to the virus. Reportedly anti-viral medications such as Tamiflu can "prevent" infection but only as long as they're taken on a prophylactic basis. Yet it's impractical, expensive, and maybe also unhealthy to take them for extended periods of time.

    Frankly, given the way that Tamiflu works, I'm still unclear on whether it actually "prevents" infection or whether the drug kills off the virus before it can replicate after it's first invaded a cell.

    (It's a matter for debate whether a virus is truly a life form but just as we speak of live and dead electrical wires, so we speak of live and dead viruses.)

    Anyhow, exposing an immune system to a killed virus allows it to calmly develop antibodies at a leisurely pace.

    As to vaccines that aren't well-matched: You'd think after all these millions of years of battling with bird influenzas the human immune system would recognize a flu virus in any guise, no matter how much it's mutated or recombined with other flu viruses. But the immune system is in some ways like a savant who can recognize hundreds of car makes and models but can never quite grasp the concept of "car."

    That's why, year in and year out, vaccine makers have to collect that year's circulating flu strains and make a new vaccine that combines the strains, even though they've made similar vaccines so many times they can do it in their sleep.

    What happens if a mutation that isn't in the cocktail becomes #1 on the influenza hit parade that year, after the vaccine has been made? You and the governments who paid for the vaccine are out of luck, that's what happens -- although if one of the strains in the vaccine is a close-enough match, your symptoms won't be as severe if you get infected with the virus.

    But once you know that your immune system goes ballistic when it doesn't recognize an invading flu virus, you also know why you can stuff yourself with nutritional supplements and it won't make a bit of difference to that phenomenon.

    Stop and think: would it make a difference to your reaction if you took adequate Vitamin D then found an armed stranger in your house? No? Then why would you expect your immune system to be as calm as a buddha in the same general circumstance just because you fed it Vitamin D?

    Next question: Can good diet and mega-doses of certain nutritional supplements, medicinal herbs help in the recuperation process?

    That's a question for a physician with a good grounding in nutritional medicine to answer. I do know from the readings I've done on the swine flu outbreak that what's crucial in the early stages of the disease are proper hydration and fast medical intervention.

    Regarding your comments about vaccine: you can no more be poisoned from an influenza virus in a killed-virus vaccine than you can be electrocuted by a dead electrical wire.

    It's impossible to get sick from being injected with an 'inactivated' or dead virus. So if you're sick after getting a flu shot, there are only four explanations:

    Hysteria, suggestibility, allergy to eggs, or an allergic reaction to an additive in the vaccine. That last, beyond slight reddening and swelling at the shot site, is rare.

    The jury is still out on whether the most famous illness associated with a flu vaccine, the Guillain-Barre Syndrome, actually came from the 1976 swine flu vaccine. And the biggest question is whether GBS arises as a reaction to the immune system going ballistic while it's fighting a virus it doesn't recognize.

    Is it likely that the reports of GBS in 1976 were in some way connected with the vaccine? "Likely" is not a scientific term. Yeah, it seems likely from what we know at this point but Nature gives no quarter, no points for being half right.

    As for the miniscule amount of mercury compound in the antibacterial additive in multi-dose flu vaccine vials: Just don't eat tuna fish for a few weeks before and after the shot if you're that worried about the cumulative effects of mercury in your body. And/or use a detox preparation, available at any health food store. Or demand a mercury-free vaccine injection.

    As for children, who can be more sensitive to mercury compounds, there's the single-dose flu vaccine, which is free of the additive.

    None of the above means I think flu vaccines carry no risks. Even the most stringent flu vaccine trials can't account for genetics; there can be rare reactions to flu vaccine but because they're rare they could show up only after hundreds of thousands of people, or even millions, received the vaccine; even then it that might take years before the harm became evident.

    The other side of the risk coin is the long-term harm that can be done by the body's war with a virus.

    Nor do I feel comfortable giving an opinion on MedImmune's live-virus nasal spray vaccine, the flu vaccines made from cell technology, or flu vaccines that use adjuvant.

    I do have one question I haven't had time to research. Are any of the swine flu vaccines the U.S. government has purchased made from cell technology instead of the egg-based method?

    The vaccine trials in the USA are testing swine flu vaccines from five different companies. Once testing is finished the U.S. government wants the FDA to fast-track approval for all the swine flu vaccines; this, on the argument that 2009 swine flu vaccines from all five companies are the same as the regular seasonal influenza vaccines made from egg culturing.

    The argument wouldn't necessarily be true if any of the vaccines were made from cell technology; such a swine flu vaccine, if it's the first such product from a cell-based technology, would be experimental. I think that would mean the vaccine would require more extensive testing than the tried-and-true egg-based seasonal flu vaccines.

    I know that the government is anxious to distribute as much swine flu vaccine as possible, as quickly as possible. But anxiousness is not a scientific method. Neither is fear.

    There is no question that most governments have put too much faith in a vaccine. Even as early as June, governments that had contracted for swine flu vaccine were warned by vaccine makers that there was great difficulty growing the seed stock for the vaccine. Yet the governments continued to stick their heads in the sand -- assuring the public, even as late as mid-July, that the first vaccine shipments would be on time.

    A month later, the CDC had to admit in public that only a fraction of the swine flu vaccine for the U.S. would arrive by mid-October. Worse, it takes two months for flu vaccine to be fully effective -- something I didn't know until recently; I'd thought it was between three and six weeks for full effectiveness.

    Worse, the hyperfocus on vaccine development caused the U.S. government (and most other governments) to neglect other areas of pandemic-defense planning, with consequences that are potentially disastrous.

    In short, their vaccine totem betrayed its worshippers. Now they're up the creek with only prayer left to the religious and luck left to the rest. Yet this is not a problem of bureaucracy; China's approach to dealing with the 2009 swine flu pandemic has been a textbook illustration of how governments must treat a pandemic virus in this era. The Chinese who thought up the approach and executed it are civil servants -- and/or they're civil servants who had the wits to listen to those outside government who knew how to deal with the 2009 swine flu outbreak.

    So this goes much deeper than a problem with government. This is decades of wrong thinking about the nature of pandemics, thinking that did not keep pace with the times. The thinking grew like barnacles over public health regimes from here to Timbuktu. Science is as much to blame in this as the civil servants who were asleep at the wheel.

    I remember talking more than 30 years ago in Nepal with a Nepalese doctor, Western trained, who told me, "There are diseases in this part of the world that the West has never heard of."

    That's right, but the first-world governments could not encompass the implications; they didn't confront what would happen if diseases they'd never heard of began jetting in overnight. That wasn't a concern in those days, when most air travel was between first-world countries.

    The harbinger was AIDS. The index AIDS patient was a Haitian working in the Congo. How did a Haitian end up working in the Congo? It's a question we don't bother to ask today because globalization of the work force is so much a part of modern life.

    After I started writing about swine flu I received a letter from an American who earnestly claimed that every "new" viral disease since AIDS had been a creation of military laboratories. The reader was blind to the fact that the "laboratory" is international airports perched in countries that have few paved roads.

    China's government, which made every mistake in the book in their response to AIDS, SARS, and H5N1, learned the hard way how the era of fully globalized work forces and international air travel intersected with infectious disease transmission. Their battle plan against the 2009 swine flu virus reflects lessons learned -- lessons that the rest of the world's governments have yet to absorb.

    A swine flu vaccine is part of China's battle plan. But the difference between the first-world's approach and China's is that first-world public health officials weren't tuned into the present era. They failed to take into account the speed with which a pandemic could strike in this era, and the lag time between the onset of a pandemic and the development and distribution of a pandemic-fighting vaccine.

    It sounds insane but prior to the 2009 swine flu outbreak, the CDC truly believed they'd have weeks to prepare in the event of an outbreak of a pandemic virus. How did they come to this idea? Well, they reasoned thusly:

    Their computer models told them that the next pandemic virus would be an aerosolized version of the H5N1 ("bird flu") virus, which their computer models also told them would arise in Asia. This virus would be so lethal and kill so many people straight out of the box that it would immediately announce its existence -- and the falling bodies would slow the progression of the disease, as the virus 'burned through' human clusters. Ergo, the CDC thought they had a few weeks to prepare before the Doomsday virus arrived on U.S. shores.

    As we know, the next pandemic was nothing like the CDC imagined.

    What happens next?

    I once heard Les Brown, a famous motivational speaker, explain why troubles could pile up at just the time we're trying to advance ourselves. He said that when you experience a lot of turbulence in your life, think of how an airplane can experience turbulence as it climbs to a higher altitude.

    China's Ministry of Health, and innovative companies such as Filligent, Replikins, BIO.DIASPORA, and Veratect -- are going to lead the world into a new era.

    They're going to teach societies that just as a war is not won through any single tactic, so even the most powerful pharmaceutical interventions are not enough to protect humanity -- especially in this era of deadly infectious diseases that can span the globe within hours.

    That's what is coming next: a move to a higher level of knowledge. All the rest is just turbulence.

    1) Procrustes at RBO informed me around 3 PM EDT that she'd deleted the comment by STOP THE VAX. That's good news. Somehow the comment had slipped past her.

    Sunday, August 23

    China's swine flu shot heard round the world

    When the news broke on August 19, international health officials, including Dr Anthony S. Fauci, head of NIH's National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, were understandably cautious. China's Sinovac Biotech company had not released data to support their claim that their swine flu vaccine required only one dose to be effective, which made it impossible to evaluate the claim.

    But by then all eyes were turned to China. With the same showmanship that marked the opening of the 2008 Olympics, China's government had orchestrated a drama that was to unfold during a three-day international symposium on swine flu beginning August 21 in Beijing.

    Virtually every vaccine expert outside China had predicted tests on human volunteers would show that two doses of swine flu vaccine were required. Yet China's swine flu vaccine trials, which were using 13,000 volunteers, dwarfed others underway around the world. If Sinovac's claim held up to scrutiny the ramifications could hardly be overstated. Details of the test results were to be unveiled at the symposium.

    The confab, formally named the International Scientific Symposium on Influenza A/H1N1 Pandemic Response and Preparedness, hosted by China's Ministry of Health with the support of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Lancet, had nearly 1,000 attendees from 30 countries and regions.

    The attendees were heavy hitters in the public health and infectious disease management communities: top scientists, vaccine developers, health ministers and senior public health officials including those from the CDC and ECDC.

    After interminable speeches and panel discussions, finally came the news everyone was waiting for. Bloomberg's Jason Gale reported on August 22 (Update 2 report; visit the Bloomberg site for several topic links in the report and the 3rd update):
    A single standard dose of vaccine may be adequate to protect most people against swine flu, according to preliminary research in China that suggests twice as many people as projected could have access to the pandemic shot.

    An experimental swine flu shot induced a protective immune response in 85 percent of adults who received an initial dose at the same strength used in a seasonal flu vaccine, Xiaofeng Liang, director of the national immunization program at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told a meeting in Beijing today.

    Health officials are awaiting more data from China, as well as studies overseas, to confirm the results.

    Authorities in the U.S. and U.K. have predicted two shots would probably be required, a regimen that would halve the amount of vaccine available to immunize people before the Northern winter.

    “This is very promising information, and if we are able to get an immunogenic response with one dose as opposed to two doses, this would be a very significant change in our expectations,” Keiji Fukuda, the World Health Organization’s assistant director-general of health security and environment, told the meeting.

    “Up until now, most of us have been thinking that two doses would be necessary to develop an immunogenic response.”

    Interim Results

    The results are based on interim results from two of the 10 [Chinese] companies conducting studies in China on vaccines to fight the new H1N1 virus. The first of the 13,000 test subjects to receive an experimental shot were vaccinated on July 22 and none had a serious adverse reaction to it, Liang said.

    Several vaccine types and strengths are being tested in seven provinces of China across four age groups in studies supervised by the country’s CDC, he said.

    The trials are assessing the safety and effectiveness of at least three different vaccine strengths in single or two-dose programs and involving inoculations based on whole and split viral particles, he said.

    The studies also looked at whether an aluminum-based chemical called an adjuvant boosted the body’s ability to produce infection-fighting antibodies.

    Vaccines produced annually for seasonal flu combine 15 micrograms of antigen -- the protein that prompts the production of antibodies -- to fight each of the three most common influenza strains.

    Liang said that a similar dose would be needed to protect most people against the pandemic strain.

    “Adolescents and adults had a better response than children and the elderly,” he said. “Taking into consideration the safety, immunogenicity and the cost, a 15-microgram, split vaccine without adjuvant could be used for future vaccination.”
    The report's third update includes this paragraph:
    No data is available in children younger than 3, Liang said. A final decision on whether one or two doses will be required to provide protection across all age groups in China won’t be taken until all the data has been collected and analyzed, he said.
    If that sounds like a climbdown we'll have to wait and see.

    It could be devastating for the vaccine manufacturers outside China, and a great embarrassment for governments who contracted with those companies, if they can't replicate the success of China's vaccine. In that event they could spend the next two months or maybe the rest of this century quibbling with China's test results.

    So would Beijing decide it's the better part of valor, or at least the better part of doing business in today's complicated world, to go along with the crowd in the event the other vaccine trials showed the need for two doses?

    I don't think so because there are too many lives at stake, too much threat from economic dislocation in the face of a pandemic, and a great many Chinese to vaccinate. From the discussion in the report, it's more likely they'll carefully match the number of shots to the requirements of different categories of people.

    Even with the vaccine's success, China won't be able to roll out any more than 65 million doses by the end of this year. Yet that means they've been highly motivated to produce an effective one-dose swine flu vaccine without the added expense of an adjuvant's bells and whistles.

    With China's quality control problems in mind -- toxic sidewall, lead paint on dolls, tainted milk product, etc. -- you might be tempted to ask whether getting immunized with China's swine flu vaccine would also mean you glow in the dark.

    Well, if it's any comfort, China's Health Minister, Chen Zhu, got his first swine flu jab on July 22 and a second shot on August 22 and he hasn't dropped dead yet or turned green. But I doubt China's 2009 swine flu vaccine will be much available outside the country.

    WHO has been so impressed with China's effort they've delivered the ultimate compliment: mooching. When WHO hits you up for freebies on behalf of the world's neediest that's a sign you've arrived as a pharmaceutical supplier.

    As to how any WHO official would have the gall to ask a developing country with more than a billion people to share any of its small vaccine supply during a pandemic -- I hope Beijing tactfully interprets the touch as a request that their vaccine companies focus on making flu vaccines for the world's basket-case countries.

    As for the purity of the vaccine, Beijing has a lot to prove because of the quality control issues and their crummy health system, which WHO politely refers to as "spotty."

    At the start of this year Beijing made it a national goal to develop a world-class health system and get into pharmaceutical development and manufacturing in a big way. That's a part of their economic stimulus plan. They are now heavily invested, both emotionally and financially, in making the best flu vaccines possible.

    Friday, August 21

    Part 3, Dealing with H1N1 swine flu outbreaks in U.S. schools: CDC advice about non-medical strategies and what's wrong with it

    There has been bad news on the swine flu front since I last posted. On August 17 the CDC announced that the 120 million doses of swine flu vaccine they were expecting for delivery in mid-October had been chopped to 45 million doses.

    I'll discuss the situation in more detail later in this post; for now, the delay in vaccine deliveries means that the regular flu season in the USA will be in high gear by the time the nation's schoolchildren are vaccinated against swine flu in appreciable measure. If the flu season is marked by a high incidence of swine flu infections, the choices facing parents and school administrators are very narrow.

    I won't sugar-coat this: the ship left the pier in March when the CDC initially made the wrong call on how to handle the swine flu outbreak. Since then the choices have gotten increasingly unpalatable.

    The American public, including school administrators, was never explicitly told certain things about the 2009 swine flu viral infections. The information missing from the nightly news was out there, on the internet, and I've discussed in on my blog. But it was not until the 21st (Singapore time) that a mainstream reporter, Bloomberg's Jason Gale, pulled together many bits of data to deliver a bleak picture of the swine flu outbreak:

    Yes, the death toll from swine flu is relatively low, although I stress that "relatively" in this context is a matter for heated debate. But the catch is the way the 2009 swine flu attacks those who become seriously ill with the infection:
    In some patients, the virus causes such a severe assault on the respiratory tract that the lungs become inflamed and the grape-like sacs where gas is exchanged are injured, causing bleeding and a critical loss of oxygen supply.(1)
    Jason's report details that saving those patient's lives, which can require highly specialized procedures and keeping them on lung ventilators for weeks, means hospitals must make triage decisions. During a large swine flu outbreak the decisions will mean that people with other serious illnesses can die for want of hospital care.

    So what are Americans facing, as the school year and flu season get underway? From one of the most quoted American authorities on the 2009 swine flu outbreak:
    “The Northern Hemisphere medical care requirements for the next six months are a train wreck waiting to happen,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in Minneapolis. “In the fall, even if nothing else changes in terms of the virus’s severity and our preparedness, it’s going to be a real challenge.”(1)
    From that perspective the CDC's updated guidelines to schools develop even greater importance than when they were published on August 7. Now to take up where I left off in the last post:

    This post addresses the CDC's guidelines to U.S. schools on the use of non-medical or 'non-pharmacological' interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the effects of a swine flu outbreak in a school while keeping the school open.

    My analysis is based on information in the CDC's online handbook, Technical Report for State and Local Public Health Officials and School Administrators on CDC Guidance for School (K-12) Responses to Influenza during the 2009-2010 School Year.

    I note that the technical report links to a "technical handbook" that contains URL hyperlinks to various NPI topics addressed in the report, which resolves my earlier complaint about the report's dearth of hyperlinks.

    My first post on the guidelines addressed screening for swine flu symptoms and the use of isolation rooms; the second one the length of time students/staff who'd recovered from flu should refrain from returning to school.

    In both posts I observed that the CDC advice on every topic I'd covered was inadequate. It's as if, after announcing that they believed vaccination was the most effective means for combating influenza, they added NPIs merely to placate parents and school staff who demanded information on them.

    The CDC advice to schools on hand washing and cleaning of surfaces continues the guidebook's curious hit-or-miss approach. Compare the CDC advice on hand washing with that given by the Canadian Center for Occupational Health and Safety.

    If you tell me after reading the Canadian guidelines that many high school girls would refuse to forego artificial nails and nail polish -- this is the tiresome thing about pathogens: they don't give humans an A for a college try. Hand washing with regular soap doesn't 'kill' or neutralize pathogens; it rolls or washes them off the hands (something the CDC guidelines don't mention). So if nail polish is chipped the bugs can lodge in the cracks and thus avoid going over Niagara Falls. The same principle applies if the person doesn't scrub underneath long nails.

    Anti-microbial soaps are better for schoolchildren provided the soaps are used properly -- washing at least 20 seconds (I think 30 seconds is better) and getting the soap under the nails.

    The same with the anti-microbial gels. While some alcohol-based gels promise on their label to kill germs within 15 seconds of application I'd have to see the studies before I'd accept the claim. Recently I spent an evening in email conversation with a science researcher on the matter of exactly what strength ethyl alcohol should be used to kill pathogens and how long it takes for the alcohol to work. He told me that 70% solution is very effective and that it kills within 30 seconds.

    It could be the popular 2 fluid oz. gel bottles can get away with a 62% solution because the alcohol is more concentrated in a small bottle. But until one of us can investigate further I'd stay on the safe side of waiting 30 seconds before assuming the stuff had worked.

    A study has shown that people touch their face on average of 200 times a day; if you have the swine flu virus on your hands then rub your eyes or touch your mouth -- congratulations; you've given yourself the flu! From that perspective, be willing to spend an extra 10 or 15 seconds washing your hands properly when you're in a flu outbreak region.

    I saw a television segment in which a school administrator in Georgia state proudly showed off large Purell anti-microbial gel dispensers that were placed in her school's halls. That's a great idea -- particularly because an easy way for students to become unpopular is if they hog a bathroom sink for a full 30 seconds of hand washing during the lunch break. But again, the little darlings need to be taught to get the gel under their nails and keep their nails clipped short.

    Moving to the CDC guidelines on cleaning surfaces, this is one of the most troubling pieces of advice for schools wishing to deploy NPIs against swine flu:
    The American Academy of Pediatrics provides guidance for school cleaning and sanitizing which is appropriate for influenza. Schools should regularly clean all areas and items that are more likely to have frequent hand contact (for example, keyboards or desks) and also clean these areas immediately when visibly soiled. Use the cleaning agents that are usually used in these areas.

    Some states and localities have laws and regulations mandating specific cleaning products be used in schools. School officials should contact their state health department or department of environmental protection for additional guidance.

    Schools should ensure that custodial staff and others (such as classroom teachers) who use cleaners or disinfectants read and understand all instruction labels and understand safe and appropriate use. Instructional materials and training should be provided in languages other than English as locally appropriate. CDC does not believe any additional disinfection of environmental surfaces beyond the recommended routine cleaning is required.

    See the American Academy of Pediatrics’ Managing Infectious Diseases in Child Care and Schools: A Quick Reference Guide, 2nd Edition (2009) for guidance on cleaning and sanitizing in schools.

    The EPA provides a list of EPA-registered products effective against flu.
    That's it; that's all the CDC school guidelines have to say on the matter of cleaning, which means they omit discussion of how long pathogens can survive on surfaces. The link to the AAP quick reference guide is simply to a page with information on how to purchase the guide so I don't know whether the guide discusses the issue.

    I assume that all U.S. schools have guidance from somewhere on the issue; however, it doesn't make sense for the CDC school guidelines to omit data on the crucial question of how long pathogens stay on surfaces -- particularly because there's a big discrepancy between data they cite elsewhere on their website and that from other sources. Here is what the CDC has to say on the topic at their H1N1 Flu and You Q&A page under the subheader Contamination and Cleaning:
    How long can influenza virus remain viable on objects (such as books and doorknobs)?

    Studies have shown that influenza virus can survive on environmental surfaces and can infect a person for 2 to 8 hours after being deposited on the surface.
    Clearly other studies have a far different story to tell. During her radio interview with John Batchelor in July, Filligent CEO Melissa Mowbray-D'Arbela said that pathogens can live for "a day or a day and a half" on surfaces.

    According to Mayo Clinic's James M. Steckelberg, M.D. (H/T Yahoo! Answers):
    The length of time that cold or flu germs can survive outside the body on an environmental surface, such as a doorknob, varies greatly. But the suspected range is from a few seconds to 48 hours — depending on the specific virus and the type of surface.

    Flu viruses tend to live longer on surfaces than cold viruses do. Also, it's generally believed that cold and flu viruses live longer on nonporous surfaces — such as plastic, metal or wood — than they do on porous surfaces — such as fabrics, skin or paper.

    Although cold and flu viruses primarily spread from person-to-person contact, you can also become infected from contact with contaminated surfaces. The best way to avoid becoming infected with a cold or flu is to wash your hands frequently with soap and water or with an alcohol-based sanitizer.
    Because Filligent scientists earn their living in a for-profit environment and thus, can't afford to get many facts wrong, I'd advise school administrators to assume the swine flu virus can live on surfaces for at least 36 hours.

    If administrators in schools that saw swine flu outbreaks this Spring were following the 2-8 hour estimate put out by the CDC, it's possible they assumed they could get by with cleaning the most obvious 'touchable' surfaces, such as chairs and desks, and that the daily overnight closing of the school would take care of the rest of the viruses. If that's how they were thinking it's no wonder it was so hard to tamp down an outbreak in the schools.

    Again, viruses don't grade humans for sincere efforts. I am reminded of a macabre but very telling joke that a guest on John Batchelor's show related during the SARS outbreak in China, which initially was traced to a military hospital:

    "Looks as if the janitor missed cleaning a doorknob at the hospital."

    Just because the school surface isn't touched often, if it's touched by any student and it has 'live' swine flu virus on it, bingo! it's being spread around the school faster than you can say hiss cat with every additional surface the student touches.

    What's the solution, then? Given how hard it is to tamp down an airborne virus, isn't the CDC right to emphasize that a vaccine is the best defense against swine flu? If the vaccine is available and it's well-matched to the virus, yes. However, as I mentioned earlier, there's been a glitch with the swine flu vaccine delivery for the USA.

    For months CDC assured the public and school administrators that the first delivery of swine flu vaccine, scheduled for mid-October, would be 120 million doses. On August 17 they announced that the October delivery would only be 45 million doses.

    Figure half that amount if the human vaccine trials, which are still underway, determine it'll take two doses of vaccine to provide adequate protection. Right now the public health community is betting that two doses will be needed.

    HHS has leaped to assure, according to this AP report:
    It's not a shortage but a delay, Health and Human Services spokesman Bill Hall said. More will arrive rapidly after that, with about 20 million more doses being shipped weekly until the government reaches the full 195 million doses ordered, he said.

    But the October shortfall, blamed on manufacturing issues, will extend by a month efforts to get people at highest risk vaccinated against the new flu strain. First in line are supposed to be pregnant women, children and health care workers, followed by younger adults with flu-risky conditions such as asthma.

    Expect vaccination campaigns to start around Oct. 15 anyway, Hall said. They just will have to be smaller in scale than originally planned, as the supply trickles in more slowly.

    "Why would we wait? As vaccine comes in, we'll ship it out to the states. We're not going to sit on it," Hall said.[...]
    Yes, well, that's not the biggest issue. There are between 53 and 55 million children and 7 million staff at U.S. schools. The CDC - HHS updated recommendation on August 7 that schools open on time in September and stay open, even during a swine flu outbreak, was based on their rosy prediction that large-scale vaccinations of schoolchildren would begin in mid-October.

    I bought into the prediction because I assumed the CDC wouldn't be so stupid as to make the recommendation without being certain that the first shipment of vaccine would be 120 million doses. That's why I suggested in an earlier post that U.S. schools in regions with swine flu outbreaks delay opening until vaccine had been administered in mid-October.

    Keep in mind that it takes three to six weeks for a vaccine to reach full effectiveness, with three weeks the time used in the NIH-funded human vaccine trials to discover whether one or two doses of vaccine are needed.

    The delay in the vaccine program changes everything. So I suggest that parents, school administrators, and public health officials read Jason Gale's report with great care, then revisit their thinking about the best course for handling a swine flu outbreak in schools. If they are determined to open the schools on time and keep them open during swine flu outbreaks, that leaves NPIs to bridge the gap until the vaccine program is well underway.

    The NPI route is very hard, very labor intensive. And as you can see from all the above, a highly infectious virus allows humans little room for error when they're closely grouped. This doesn't mean NPIs shouldn't be used in abundance in the schools; on the contrary. Secondary infections can be a bigger killer than a virus during a pandemic.

    The NPIs, if done right, will greatly reduce germs of all kinds, including bacteria that exacerbate viral outbreaks in schools. However, the emphasis is on "done right." So another thing the CDC can do is clean up the errors, omissions, and contradictions I've noted in this three-part series on their NPI guidelines.

    1) Bloomberg: Swine Flu Pandemic Paradox Kills Few, Overwhelms ICUs: Jason Gale; August 21, 2009