Bravo, Burma -- er, Myanmar!

I meant to put this post up yesterday but I discovered it's really hard to type and dance around my desk at the same time. So I finally gave up on the attempt and just danced for joy. Here are the headlines that got me dancing -- and I'm sure the headlines also got Johnny Cash smiling down from his cloud in heaven (the campaign anthem of Aung San Suu Kyi's supporters is inspired by a Cash song):

Guardian: Burma celebrates Aung San Suu Kyi's apparent landslide election victory: Nobel laureate expected to take office for first time after landmark poll that could see end to 50 years of military rule

Agence France-Presse: No serious complaints in Myanmar vote: ASEAN chief.

Of course there were some shenanigans at the ballot box -- people rising from the dead to cast a vote, etc., but it's very clear that Myanmar President Thein Sein didn't want complaints from international election monitors to interfere with his star turn at the ASEAN summit on Tuesday. And, if one considers the courage he's and intelligence he displayed in somehow talking the country's generals into making Myanmar an upstanding member of ASEAN, he wanted nothing to interfere with the star turn of Myanmar's people on the world stage.

Success has been in the air for weeks; if the by-election was even halfway fair, Aung San Suu Kyi would win by at least a healthy margin. Rumors were flying last week that the government had already offered her a cabinet position and that she'd turned it down, saying being a parliamentarian was enough for her.

"Auntie Suu" was herself in such a good mood by last week that the 66-year old daughter of Burma's oops! Myanmar's founding father couldn't resist a little banter with a serious-faced Western reporter. He inquired worriedly about her health, which had been strained by the killer pace of campaigning. She told him with a grin that her health was so delicate she just might faint if the press asked her any tough political questions.

My celebratory mood was short-lived -- it is always is -- as I mulled over a long list of recriminations I might hurl at various parties because what happened yesterday in Burma could and should have happened decades ago. But I don't think Auntie Suu would appreciate my acid pen at this time. So I'll limit myself to saying to the Christian missionaries, the Soros Crowd and the Gene Sharp Crowd that if you'd like to see Burma's generals lower the boom again, push the envelope again. Are we clear? If so I'm willing to let the past remain where it is.

Now, as to whether Burma is the next Asian Tiger economy: the problem with turning your country into a fortress for decades is that the country falls greatly behind; add to that ethnic insurgencies fomented by outsiders and you end up with a fourth-world country. That's where Burma is today. But the country's potential is so great that economists and country analysts who specialize in ASEAN countries are seriously asking the question.

Here are two answers: one, from IHS Global Insight's Asia-Pacific Chief Economist Rajiv Biswas, is upbeat; the other, from Joshua Kurlantzick, a fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, full of caution; both should be studied.

As to whether there's a tiebreaker, I think the money quote is found in Biswas's analysis:

From an economic perspective, Burma’s economic reforms and tariff liberalization will be important to ASEAN’s objective to create a single market for trade in goods by 2015.

To meet the objective, Myanmar can count on help from other ASEAN members -- a lot of help.

Finally, a word to my own dear government: Don't tack 'defense-related' issues onto lifting sanctions that you said at the time you were imposing for humanitarian reasons.

Need I remind you that the Afghans are now so justifiably worried that their country is going to become a battleground between Iran and the United States that recently a member of the Afghan senate lashed out at both governments, and Hamid Karzai backed him up.

With that thought in mind, don't try to use Myanmar as a staging ground against China. If you don't want to confront Beijing's leaders directly, don't use the world's dirt-poor as a stealth weapon. I don't want to hear, 'They do it too.' Are you Chinese? And while I'm on the subject, stop weaponizing in the name of 'freedom' every principle Americans cherish.

Sorry, Auntie Suu. We're actually all for peace and love here in Punditaland.

Thailand Crisis: rising economic toll, government refuses negotiations with Red Shirts until they disperse

VOA - May 18 (no time stamp on report):

The Thai capital, Bangkok, is relatively quiet, despite authorities refusing to negotiate with anti-govenrment protesters until they end their nine-week occupation of a central commercial area. Soldiers have surrounded the demonstrators for a fifth day to pressure them to leave, leading to sporadic clashes that raised the death toll to 68 people killed since April. Earlier, hopes for a ceasefire were raised when a group of Thai senators offered to mediate peace talks between the government and protest leaders, who welcomed the offer. But Thai authorities dug in their heals, refusing talks until after the protesters leave. [...]

The Wall Street Journal reports in the following article that the Red Shirt camp somehow received fresh food supplies. This dashes the government's earlier hope that with food supplies dwindling the protestors would only be able to hold out a more days. The supplies "carried in takeout styrofoam containers in a pickup truck" probably got past the security cordon because of sympathetic police and/or military guards; see my previous post today.

Meanwhile, the economic toll from the standoff has risen steeply for Thailand. Business analysts assumed at first that the crisis would blow over within a couple weeks. Now that it's dragging into nine weeks with no end in sight, and with the threat of a bloody crackdown that could further distance foreign investors, the economic picture at this time is bad for Thailand. This could have big ramifications for the ASEAN region.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - May 18 - 4:01 PM EDT:

Thai Srife Threatens Investment

By PATRICK BARTA And ALEX FRANGOS

BANGKOK—Thailand's standing as a major investment destination is coming under question as its government fails to resolve the country's bloody political crisis and economic damage mounts.
[...]

The crisis was already causing severe damage to Thailand's economy before the latest spasm of violence. But the killings have added a new dimension, forcing businesses to contemplate more drastic steps to ensure safety of their employees and causing some foreign investors to wonder if Thailand's deep social divides can ever be repaired.

Some companies are considering moving employees to hotels near the airport so they can escape more quickly if street violence spreads, while others are shifting their foreign direct investment, or FDI, to other countries entirely.

"Unless the crisis is resolved, law and order restored and a credible process of reconciliation begun, Thailand will probably lose out in the FDI stakes for a long time," says Manu Bhaskaran, chief executive of Centennial Asia Advisors, an economic consulting firm in Singapore. Even longtime investors are wondering "should I be engaged at all" in Thailand, says David Fernandez, a managing director at J.P. Morgan in Singapore.

Tüv Süd, a German company that conducts product testing and industrial certification, with operations throughout Asia, was about to make an acquisition of a Thai oil-and-gas-services firm when the protests intervened.

"Because of the instability we are holding off," says Ishan Palit, chief executive of Tüv Süd's Asia operation. With his German bosses generally eager to expand in Asia, those resources will now go to places such as Malaysia or Indonesia, he says. "Until two weeks ago, the view was still that it was going to come back and be all right," he says. But now, "it's gotten more serious."

Thailand's problems are "a bit more fundamental" than the past, adds Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. "It makes it difficult to justify major allocations to Thailand," he says. "I can find other countries that are more attractive without having to worry about the political situation," he says, including stock markets such as South Korea and Taiwan.
[...]