OSCE's backdoor attempt to influence Thailand's election and why Americans should take note

OSCE Permanent Council

[Flipping her pen in the air] Can't I go on vacation for a few weeks without the cockroaches running riot in Washington? Never mind; it's a rhetorical question.

Actually the OSCE machinations with Thaksin Shinawatra started before my vacation but the situation flew under my radar until some nice person decided to ruin my holiday by alerting me.

The story is that the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) invited Thaksin to Washington to testify on human rights violations in Thailand and specifically during the Red Shirt 'riots' this Spring. (See Asia Sentinel report via Irrawaddy , December 15, "Thaksin goes to America.")

Pundita readers might recall what I and the rest of the outside world went through in the effort to get a fix on what was really happening in Bangkok during the riots. It turned out the riots were street theater that masked a sophisticated 5GW-type operation to destabilize Thailand's government, and which pointed to Thaksin as the mastermind.

That's not even addressing Thaksin's alleged human rights abuses and strong-arm tactics while he served as Thailand's prime minister.

In short, asking Thaksin to hold forth on human rights abuses and authoritarian trends in Thailand's government is asking the fox to point out weaknesses in the chicken coop. Despite this, the OSCE decided to give Thaksin a big public platform in Washington at a most sensitive juncture in Thailand's politics. (AFP report today, "Thai PM faces key electoral test in 2011.")

It's possible Thaksin's visa application to enter the USA will be denied, given the terrorism charges against him in Thailand. And his planned appearance in December has been postponed until January, ostensibly because Congress will be in session then, but probably in response to howls of protest from Thailand's government and various quarters in Washington. (The Straits Times, December 13 report, "Thaksin's US Hearing Put Off;" December 7 VOA report, "Thailand May Seek Extradition of Thaksin If He Enters US.")

Yet in light of Thaksin's spotty human rights record while he was PM, and given the great importance of the present Thai administration's assistance to Washington in the war on terror -- assistance which included their part in a sting operation that netted Viktor Bout -- one has to wonder about the backstory to the OSCE decision to call Thaksin to testify.

The Bout arrest is notable in this context because of alleged attempts by some of his buddies in the Russian mobs to bribe Thai officials -- a story that came to public view light in a Wikileaks leaked U.S. State Department cable. (Dec 1 AFP
report)

However, I think the real backstory is the story of the OSCE itself, what it's become since the mid-1990s. (See Wikipedia article on the organization in particular the Criticisms section.)

The larger story is what U.S. foreign policy has become since the mid-1990s. President Bill Clinton's administration was so tilted toward the EU it's not much of an exaggeration to say that during the Clinton era U.S. foreign policy was run from a postbox in Brussels when it wasn't run from London.

Add to this foreign lobbies, U.S. domestic defense lobbies, and U.S. domestic lobbies with foreign agendas have become such a huge industry in Washington since the 1990s that the USA doesn't have a foreign 'policy' anymore. It has thousands of competing interests, which pull members of Congress, key government agencies and the presidential administration in a thousand different directions. That's not policy. That's The Blob.

And the OSCE, a United Nations-chartered organization that is today the world's largest security-oriented intergovernmental organization, is very much a part of the blob. I guess one benefit is that all these European organizations keep the manufacturers of large mahogany tables in business. And I really do applaud the European Union; I am so happy the West Europeans are not always warring with each other anymore.

But it's like ex-smokers who chew gum incessantly: they seem to have replaced battles with councils, which proliferate at an ever-increasing rate. And that's okay for the Europeans, as long as they're happy. But America is not the Roman Empire. It's not the British Empire. And if we don't want to go the way of those empires, we need to stop with our attempts to imitate the Europeans, else we'll be destroyed by the blob, which at last count was ten zillion lobbies, agencies, and NGOs.

And we need to stuff our ears with cotton whenever the EU tells Americans that we must be involved in their way of doing things because the USA is a superpower nation. Seems to me the Europeans are telling every nation it needs to be involved in the EU's way of doing things. The problem is that the European Union is not a nation. It's the world's most powerful trading bloc.

I'm not going to sit here and say that the OSCE has given every sign that it's morphed into yet one more front organization for the European Union. Vladimir Putin has already said it for me. (See Wikipedia's article on the OSCE.) I will say that the OSCE has no business trying to manipulate America's relationship with Thailand and to compound their sneakiness by doing this behind the American public's back.

Before I return to my vacation I will also note that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's idea is to get the OSCE even more involved in security for Afghanistan. (See December 1 Bloomberg report.) For the love of sanity: we need fewer outside agencies in Afghanistan and less OSCE involvement because with every additional layer of bureaucracy that's imported, this only adds to the corruption and the confusion in the country. But then everyone at State already knows this.

Thaksin issues warning to Thailand government as Red Shirt supporters set fires across Bangkok

CNN reported during their 5:00 PM EDT broadcast that Red Shirt supporters, ousted or fleeing from their camp in Bangkok by an army assualt this morning, "have set Bangkok on fire and are hurling grenades."

This is the first time I've heard about heavy use of grenades by the Red Shirts, but other news organizations are also reporting that the Red Shirts are setting fires. The government has announced that arsonists and looters caught in the act can be shot under the rules of military engagement. issued orders Reuters - Wed May 19, 11:28am)

... "Police and soliders were instructed to resolve the situation and use weapons to deter or prevent those (arson and looting) acts," Tharit Pengdit, director-general of the Department of Special Investigation, said in a televised address. ...

Reuters also has more on the phone call they received this morning from Thaksin Shinawatra -- and more on Thaksin. (I note that the following article describes him as a multi-muillionare; an earluier Reuters dispatch described him as a billionare, and Wikipedia describes him as a "multi-billionaire" and one of Thailand's richest people. Anyhow, he's rich.

Thailand's ex-PM Thaksin predicts guerrilla war

by Nopporn Wong-Anan
Reuters BANGKOK
Wed May 19, 2010 12:56pm EDT

[Summary] Exiled former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said on Wednesday that a military crackdown on protesters backing him could spawn mass discontent and lead to guerrilla warfare.

Thaksin, ousted in a bloodless 2006 military coup, is denounced by adversaries as Thailand's most corrupt politician. To his anti-government supporters, who set Bangkok ablaze on Wednesday, he is a savior.

Speaking from an undisclosed location, Thaksin said the crackdown on "red shirt" protesters, which killed six people and wounded 58, could degenerate into widespread violence.

"There is a theory saying a military crackdown can spread resentment and these resentful people will become guerrillas," Thaksin told Reuters as troops fought protesters in Bangkok, sparking violence in outer provinces.

"There are lots and lots of people across the country who are upset because they were prevented from joining the Bangkok rally."

His critics say Thaksin is a crony capitalist who plundered the economy and perverted democracy for the benefit of his family and friends while in power from 2001 until the 2006 coup.

But to many rural voters, he was the first leader to consider the needs of millions living beyond Bangkok's bright lights.

Thaksin, who scored two landslide poll wins, has been living abroad in self-exile since being removed.

But a two-month campaign by his supporters to oust the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, hoping to gain Thaksin a political amnesty and justice, culminated on Wednesday in the country's worst political violence in 18 years.

Rioting and fires swept Bangkok after troops stormed the protesters' encampment, forcing their leaders to surrender.

Protesters set ablaze at least 27 buildings, including the Thai stock exchange and Central World, Southeast Asia's second-biggest department store complex.

A night curfew was declared in Bangkok and 21 provinces.

THAKSIN'S GHOST

Thaksin, 60, has hovered over Thai politics since fleeing the country in 2008, accused of undermining the powerful monarchy and breaching conflict-of-interest laws. He was sentenced in absentia to two years in prison.

Government officials say the multimillionaire former telecommunications tycoon was funding the protests to the tune of about $1.5 million a day. Both Red Shirt leaders and Thaksin deny he funded the anti-government movement.

In his comments, Thaksin rejected any notion he was the stumbling block in failed talks between the government and protesters.

"I only gave them advice that they should make a collective decision as a group, not letting any individual leaders to make a decision by their own... I never discussed about my personal interests with them," Thaksin said.

Thaksin, a former policeman, is accused by critics of abusing his electoral mandate to systematically dismantle constitutional checks and balances while consolidating his own rule.

In 2005, he looked unassailable with a record majority in parliament based on the platform of cheap healthcare and handouts for rural voters that swept him to power four years earlier.

He formed the first elected government to serve a full term, after which it was re-elected. He was also the first leader in Thai history to form a one-party government.

But corruption scandals and alleged abuses of power eroded his popularity among Bangkok's middle classes. Simmering anger exploded in 2006 when his relatives sold off, tax-free, their $1.9 billion stake in Shin Corp, the telecoms empire he founded, to a Singapore state company.

Thaksin responded by calling an election three years early, which he duly won.

CONTROVERSIAL RISE

Born into a family of ethnic Chinese silk merchants in 1949 in the northern city of Chiang Mai, Thaksin became a policeman in 1973 before gaining a masters degree in criminal justice at Eastern Kentucky University.

He is still popular among rank-and-file policemen, accused by government backers of doing too little to stop the protests.

In 1987, he established a computer dealership with his wife that started selling hardware to the police. The company evolved into Shin Corp, a telecoms conglomerate with interests ranging from mobile phones to satellites, the Internet and the media.

But a corruption probe dogged him in power until he convinced investigators he made an "honest mistake" in failing to declare millions of dollars of shares transferred to his domestic staff.

A 2003 war on drugs in which 2,500 people were killed boosted his image as a crime-buster, but sparked outrage from rights groups, who said he was riding roughshod over civil liberties.

In February, Thailand's top court seized $1.4 billion of his assets, saying it was acquired through abuse of power.

(Editing by Michael Perry and Ron Popeski)

Thailand: Reuters live blogging the crisis

Here is the link to the Reuters live blogging page.

Some Pundita posts on the crisis during past two days. (Scroll down webpage for earlier posts on the crisis).

May 19
Thailand army breaks through Red Shirt barricades (features Reuters 12:12 AM EDT report)
http://tinyurl.com/2dgs7w6

May 19
Finally, a glimmer of truth about Thailand mess emerges. Implications for Pakistan, Mexico, Iran. CIA please take notes.
http://tinyurl.com/2dxgen4

May 18
Thailand - Two great reports show crisis there in new light (Thai protests expose military rifts, incompetence)
http://tinyurl.com/24wzusm

May 18 post
Thailand crisis rising economic toll (Quotes Wall Street Journal article)
http://tinyurl.com/239aflc

Finally, a glimmer of truth about Thailand mess. Implications for Pakistan and Mexico -- and Iran. CIA, please take notes.

UPDATE
Thai army storms Red Shirt Bangkok camp -3:22 AM Reuters report.
******************
Here's an entry from the Reuters live blogging page, datelined 3:45 AM Bangkok time, by Randall Maxwell (emphasis mine):

I worked for a well known news organization for years. I have owned property in Bangkok for 20 years. Let's get some facts out. The Military is in BUSINESS. They own banks, rubber plantations, rice plantations, hotels etc. They are partners with the business elite.

Unlike the USA military, the Thai military is not 100% taxpayer funded. It partially funds itself. It has been a force in Thailand for over 6,000 years. In the past, efforts by Thailand's military to significantly expand its business ventures have met stiff resistance, especially from [former] Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thaksin then attempted to fragment the military and started to woo factions of the Military over to himself. He was trying to create a faction of the military 100% loyal to HIM PERSONALLY. The Generals decided to COUP his ass for stopping their business expansions and trying to divide the Military.

Thaksin wooed the rural poor knowing full well it would cement his power due to sheer numbers. Does he care about the Red Shirts? Not a chance. He's funding this protest in order to hopefully create a government more sympathetic to HIM. He wants the $1.4 BILLION he stole while in power released.

The government offered elections in November of this year!!! [1] Thaksin does NOT want that. It is not soon enough. He needs a new election before the Military Leader shake-up in September. As is the case, the wealthy Generals rise to the top and cement partnerships with the business elite running Thailand now. Thaksin will have no chance after September. The military sees no advantage in a Thaksin Red Shirt regime. It is bad for their businesses. In this case, democracy has nothing to do with this protest. This is a power play at the highest level with the "red shirts" as pawns.
by Randall Maxwell at 5/19/2010 3:44:35 AM 11:44 PM

I have so much to say about the news that Thailand's military partially funds itself that I don't know where to begin. Maybe with my March 1, 2005 post titled, Paw, a Revenuer's at the door. "Quick Abdullah, put on your tribal headdress!", in which I did much ranting and explaining about the measly tax base in a lot of 'developing' countries, and the implications.

Or maybe I should start by digging up some of my old posts on Mexico, in which I ranted about President Vicente Fox's persistent failure to collect taxes from the elite that put him in power. That was a point Andrés Manuel López Obrador -- the man who narrowly lost to Felipe Calderón in Mexico's last presidential election -- harped on.

When President George Bush advised President Fox that he should really think about raising taxes just a tad, López Obrador said it wasn't necessary to raise taxes: just collect taxes from the rich. For that, Washington labeled López Obrador a deranged left-wing radical.

Then perhaps I should find a recent comment from one of my readers discussing the fact that Pakistan's military owns many of Pakistan's businesses. I think that would also be true for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came to power.

So the question is how much the tax base in those countries supports the militaries; if the answer is "Not so much," there's no mystery about why those militaries are so terribly corrupt and why they muscle into the nation's business sector.

1) Pundita note: the Red Shirts waffled about the offer, then made at least one unreasonable counter-demand, causing the government to rescind the offer.

Bangkok Crisis: Thai army breaks through Red Shirt camp barricades; Reuters live blogging the crisis

Also see my latest post on Thailand: Finally, a glimmer of truth about Thailand mess. Implications for Pakistan and Mexico -- and Iran. CIA, please take notes.
**************
Here's the link for the live blogging:
http://live.reuters.com/Event/Bangkok_protests

Reuters Wednesday May 19, 12:13am EDT reporting from Bangkok Ambika Ahuja and Damir Sagolj:

Thai troops and armored vehicles broke through barricades of tires and bamboo on Wednesday in an operation to squeeze thousands of anti-government protesters from their fortified camp in central Bangkok, witnesses said.

Troops fired tear gas and automatic rifles at the red-shirted protesters, as an armored vehicle broke through a barricaded intersection but stopped before closing in on an area where an estimated 3,000 demonstrators were rallying.

Two bodies were found on Ratchadamri Road, which leads to the main protest site after troops followed the army vehicle into the encampment, a Reuters witness said. They appeared to have been shot.

The "red shirts" fired back, witnesses said, and at least eight people were wounded, a hospital said. Some troops were seen firing from an overpass as army officials blocked journalists from entering the area.

Protesters ignited walls of tires as the troops arrived, causing thick black smoke to billow high over skyscrapers and camouflaging thousands of demonstrators who have occupied the heart of Bangkok's commercial district for more than six weeks.

Troops earlier used bullhorns and loudspeakers to urge protesters and civilians to leave, as military helicopters circled overhead.

"Please leave the site immediately. Officials are about to conduct an operation," a soldier said over a loudspeaker.
more than six weeks.

It was unclear whether the military presence was the start of the crackdown or the beginning of a long process to raise pressure on the protesters and flush out women, children and others from a sprawling encampment where explosives, guns and grenades are thought to be stashed.

ARMOURED VEHICLES

At least two dozen armored personnel carriers approached the encampment.

"We're asking everybody to be ready for a crackdown because armored personnel carriers are beginning to move in (to the area)," said Nattawut Saikua, a protest leader.

Some troops in the business district were as close as 200 meters (650 ft) from the protesters' three-meter (10-foot) high barricade made of tires, bamboo poles, and concrete topped with razor wire, a Reuters photographer said. Pick-up trucks and buses carrying soldiers also arrived in the area.

About 3,000 of the mostly rural and urban poor protestors, who broadly supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra who was ousted in a 2006 coup, remain in the encampment in Bangkok's high-end shopping, hotel and diplomatic district.

"We have received reports that they will come in some areas. Negotiations are ongoing. But if they come, we will let it happen and fight on from here," Nattawut told supporters from a stage at the center of the main protest site.

Soon after he spoke, protest leaders broke into songs and, in a surreal sight, ran comedy skits from the stage.

They accuse the British-born, Oxford-educated Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of lacking a popular mandate after coming to power in a controversial parliamentary vote in 2008 with tacit backing from the military, and have demanded immediate elections.

Troops have thrown a cordon around the 3 sq-km (1.2 sq-mile) protest site, a "tent city" at the Rachaprasong intersection, paralyzing the heart of Bangkok. Hundreds of women and children have taken refuge in a temple inside the protest area.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban has said moving in on the encampment had to be "a last resort."

The red shirts have been stockpiling food, water, and supplies in their encampment since Thursday when troops began an operation to isolate them, sparking several days of street fighting that has killed 39 people and wounded nearly 300 in Thailand's deadliest political violence in 18 years.

(Additional reporting by Nopporn Wong-Anan; writing by Jason Szep; editing by Bill Tarrant)

Thailand Crisis: rising economic toll, government refuses negotiations with Red Shirts until they disperse

VOA - May 18 (no time stamp on report):

The Thai capital, Bangkok, is relatively quiet, despite authorities refusing to negotiate with anti-govenrment protesters until they end their nine-week occupation of a central commercial area. Soldiers have surrounded the demonstrators for a fifth day to pressure them to leave, leading to sporadic clashes that raised the death toll to 68 people killed since April. Earlier, hopes for a ceasefire were raised when a group of Thai senators offered to mediate peace talks between the government and protest leaders, who welcomed the offer. But Thai authorities dug in their heals, refusing talks until after the protesters leave. [...]

The Wall Street Journal reports in the following article that the Red Shirt camp somehow received fresh food supplies. This dashes the government's earlier hope that with food supplies dwindling the protestors would only be able to hold out a more days. The supplies "carried in takeout styrofoam containers in a pickup truck" probably got past the security cordon because of sympathetic police and/or military guards; see my previous post today.

Meanwhile, the economic toll from the standoff has risen steeply for Thailand. Business analysts assumed at first that the crisis would blow over within a couple weeks. Now that it's dragging into nine weeks with no end in sight, and with the threat of a bloody crackdown that could further distance foreign investors, the economic picture at this time is bad for Thailand. This could have big ramifications for the ASEAN region.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - May 18 - 4:01 PM EDT:

Thai Srife Threatens Investment

By PATRICK BARTA And ALEX FRANGOS

BANGKOK—Thailand's standing as a major investment destination is coming under question as its government fails to resolve the country's bloody political crisis and economic damage mounts.
[...]

The crisis was already causing severe damage to Thailand's economy before the latest spasm of violence. But the killings have added a new dimension, forcing businesses to contemplate more drastic steps to ensure safety of their employees and causing some foreign investors to wonder if Thailand's deep social divides can ever be repaired.

Some companies are considering moving employees to hotels near the airport so they can escape more quickly if street violence spreads, while others are shifting their foreign direct investment, or FDI, to other countries entirely.

"Unless the crisis is resolved, law and order restored and a credible process of reconciliation begun, Thailand will probably lose out in the FDI stakes for a long time," says Manu Bhaskaran, chief executive of Centennial Asia Advisors, an economic consulting firm in Singapore. Even longtime investors are wondering "should I be engaged at all" in Thailand, says David Fernandez, a managing director at J.P. Morgan in Singapore.

Tüv Süd, a German company that conducts product testing and industrial certification, with operations throughout Asia, was about to make an acquisition of a Thai oil-and-gas-services firm when the protests intervened.

"Because of the instability we are holding off," says Ishan Palit, chief executive of Tüv Süd's Asia operation. With his German bosses generally eager to expand in Asia, those resources will now go to places such as Malaysia or Indonesia, he says. "Until two weeks ago, the view was still that it was going to come back and be all right," he says. But now, "it's gotten more serious."

Thailand's problems are "a bit more fundamental" than the past, adds Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. "It makes it difficult to justify major allocations to Thailand," he says. "I can find other countries that are more attractive without having to worry about the political situation," he says, including stock markets such as South Korea and Taiwan.
[...]

Bangkok: Red Shirt leaders need to stand down. Now. (UPDATED 6X)

UPDATE Monday May 17 6:30 PM EDT
Frankly I am shocked that Fox News Cable and CNN have not mentioned the Bangkok crisis during the first half hour of their 6:00 AM news report.

The 3:00 PM deadline for the protestors to leave the camp has come and gone but it seems few of the Red Shirts have left, despite the government's offer of safe passage with no penalties attached. It's not clear what's going to happen next. According to the latest BBC report:

[...] The government said on Monday it would talk to the protesters as long as they showed "sincerity" by leaving their camp.
[...]
The protesters - particularly women, children and the elderly - have been told by the government they must leave the area immediately as it is too dangerous to remain.
[...]
The broadcasts warned that those who remained faced two years in prison, but gave no details about what would happen after the deadline passed.

Satit Wonghnongtaey, a minister attached to the prime minister's office, told reporters an "operation [to disperse the protesters] will be executed as soon as possible".

But the protesters appear to be defiant. As the deadline passed, there was little sign of a rush to leave the camp.

A group of around 300 people who sought refuge in a nearby temple have told volunteers there that they do not trust the government's offer of safe passage and do not dare to leave, the BBC was told.

Meanwhile, protesters are reported to be sending up fireworks at circling helicopters.
[...]

The report suggests hysteria has set in among many of the protestors, which is fueling their paranoia. They're exhausted from days of unremitting stress and little sleep. Their leadership is in disarray. I doubt many are thinking straight at this point.

Why doesn't the Sangha take a leadership role in this situation? Rival Buddhist sects should put aside their differences long enough to speak in one voice -- urge the protestors to work with the government to end the standoff. The show of solidarity among Buddhist leaders could overcome the protestors' paranoia and help calm them.

Speaking of exhaustion -- the crisis has kept me up all night. I'm going to sign off now and catch a few hours of sleep.
**********************************
Right now it's 1:34 AM EDT here in Washington, DC. The time is 12:34 PM in Bangkok --less than three hours to the government's deadline to the protestors. See the report after the updates. All we can do now is wait and hope the coolest heads prevail.
*****************************
Excerpts from AP Report May 17 12:45 AM EDT: "The political conflict is Thailand's deadliest and most prolonged in decades, and each passing day of violence deepens divides in this nation of 65 million — a key U.S. ally and Southeast Asia's second-largest economy. Thailand has long been considered a democratic oasis in Southeast Asia, and the unrest has shaken faith in its ability to restore and maintain stability."

Report also mentions that the slain Seh Daeng, a renegade army officer, was accused of creating a paramilitary force for the Red Shirt protesters:

"Seh Daeng has accomplished his duty. All of us here have the duty to carry on the quest for justice," a Red Shirt leader, Jatuporn Prompan, said. He said that the only hope now to end the violence was intervention by Thailand's revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

The 82-year-old monarch, hospitalized since September, has remained publicly silent on the crisis unlike decades past when he stepped in to stop bloodshed.

Breaking News: Reuters Sun May 16, 2010 11:38 PM EDT: "A rogue soldier and de facto military chief of Thailand's red shirt protest movement has died, said the director of the hospital where he was being treated after an assassination attempt. [Suspended major general] Khattiya Sawasdipol, better known as Seh Daeng, was shot in the head on Thursday in an incident that sparked the latest flare-up in violence in Bangkok."

Breaking: Pattaya Daily News May 17 12:40 AM EDT: Seh Daeng's death may spark revenge killings and have widespread political ramifications in Thailand. Warning: article has graphic photographs.

(UK) Telegraph May 17: "....A state of emergency has already spread to more than a quarter of the country after emergency decrees were declared in five more provinces, as violence erupted in the north and northeast. ..."

BANGKOK, May 16, 2010 11:23 PM EDT

(Kyodo News International) The death toll from four days of clashes between troops and antigovernment protesters in Bangkok rose to 36 on Monday following overnight violence in which an air force officer was shot dead and a luxury hotel was hit by grenades. In addition to the 36 fatalities -- nine of which occurred Sunday and two early Monday -- more than 250 people have been injured in the latest round of violence since Thursday, according to Bangkok's emergency medical center.

Local dailies reported the grenades damaged the fifth and 17th floors of the Dusit Thani Hotel, located in the Thai capital's Silom financial district opposite Lumpini Park, shortly after midnight. It was not immediately known if there were any casualties at the hotel. The hotel management was not available for any comment. Nation TV reported that only journalists were staying in the hotel.

Post Today, a Thai language daily, reported that three grenades also landed near a high-rise office building located on Rama IV Road, less than 100 meters away from the Dusit Thani.

About an hour after the grenade attacks, an air force officer was shot dead and another was slightly injured as they drove a pickup truck into the off-limits zone on Silom Road, a stretch lined with commercial banks and tall buildings that also runs alongside one of Bangkok's main nightlife areas popular with foreigners.

The daily quoted a preliminary report as saying there was a gunfight between troops stationed on Silom Road and the two air force officers in the truck.

The government has declared Monday and Tuesday this week to be public holidays in Bangkok to facilitate restoration of peace and order in the capital, though banks and the financial market opened as usual. It has also decided to postpone until May 24 the start of the new school semester in the capital. ....

*****************************
According to a Guardian report (Sunday 16 May 19:56 BST) the Thai government has ordered all women and children to leave the Red Shirt camp in central Bangkok by 3:00 PM Monday ahead of an offensive to remove anyone remaining in the camp. The government is also offering safe passage from the camp for males who want to leave:

The army said it planned to allow neutral organisations such as the Red Cross into the protest area to encourage protesters to leave. "Whoever wants to leave, the government will organise transportation, [people] can go in any direction they want. Even men and tough guys and guards, the government will transport them out – the only condition is without weapons."

That means the government has removed the threat of terrorism charges, which carry a maximum penalty of death, for the Red Shirt leaders if they leave the camp peacefully by tomorrow afternoon.

But the leaders who rejected the offer for elections (there was a split in the 22-member 'leadership council' over whether to accept the offer) don't seem to want a peaceful resolution to the violence. They had countered the government's offer with the demand that the deputy prime minister be arrested for ordering troops to move on Red Shirts on April 10, when 25 of the protestors were killed. The demand predictably caused the government to withdraw the offer.

Then today the leaders demanded the United Nations step in, but there was a catch:

"We want the UN to moderate it because we do not trust anyone else. There is no group in Thailand that is neutral enough," the redshirt co-leader Nattawut Saikua said. "We have no other condition. We do not want any more losses."

If you don't trust any group in Thailand then you're not asking for negotiation, and no offer the government can make will be acceptable.

The government rejected the demand: "If they really want to talk, they should not set conditions like asking us to withdraw troops," said Korbsak Sabhavasu, the prime minister's secretary-general. "They cannot make demands if they want to negotiate."

As for bringing in the U.N.:

" ... no governments allow any organisations to intervene in their internal affairs,” Panitan Wattanayagorn, the government spokesman, said ..."

At least some of the Red Shirts have also made the unreasonable demand that the king step in and fix things. That's setting up the king to be a pasty; so far he hasn't fallen for the ploy.

Is there a bottom line to all this, aside from a bloodbath? The urban warfare has virtually shut down one of the most important cities in Southeast Asia, delivered a blow to Thailand's economy, and scared foreign investors. On the other side of the picture, the Red Shirts claim to represent the country's electoral majority -- the poorest Thais in the rural portions of the country.

And Thaksin, a former telecom tycoon who is variously described as a multi-millionaire or billionaire, is now facing a close review of his financial records:

(Reuters - May 16, 8:19 AM EDT ) - Financial transactions involving 106 bank or stock accounts associated with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will be halted if found to be linked to anti-government protesters, the National Security Council (NSC) said on Sunday.

The accounts and assets -- held by associates, family members and businesses linked to the exiled multi-millionaire -- will be monitored and frozen if found linked to the protest movement.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand, asset management, insurance firms and commercial banks are prohibited from facilitating any such transactions, Tawil Pliensri, secretary-general of the NSC said in a televised address.

The government says Thaksin, who is currently believed to be in Montenegro, evading a two-year jail term for graft, is the de facto leader and main financier of the red-shirted protesters occupying parts of Bangkok.

It seems members of his family had seen the writing on the wall. The Bangkok Post reported today:

Khunying Potjaman na Pombejra, ex-wife of fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and her son and daughter, Panthongtae and Pinthongtha Shinawatra, left for Singapore on May 14, reports said.

Reports said another daughter, Paethongtan, was in a European country. She also left Bangkok on Friday.

A news report yesterday mentioned that Montenegro's government isn't allowing him to send "political messages" to his followers in Thailand. However, I think they'd have to place him in solitary confinement to prevent him from communicating with Red Shirt leaders. Thaksin's ouster from Thailand's government is a major grievance of the Red Shirts.

Today he issued a statement through his attorney calling for the "international community to respond to the Thai government's violent crackdown on protestors in Bangkok." It seems to me if he can get that message out to the world he can also call for the Red Shirt leaders to tell their people to stand down.

From what I've learned up to this point, I'd say the bottom line is war between Thaksin and Thailand's government. Reportedly not all Red Shirts are his supporters. But if his hard-line Red Shirt loyalists can't bring down the government it seems they want to drag it through as much mud as possible.

Thaksin became head of Thailand's government by circumventing the elite power structure; he did this by spreading a great of money among Thailand's majority, the country's rural poor. Then, once he was in power, he solidified his hold on the majority with lavish government handouts. As I noted in yesterday's post Thaksin's strategy opened Pandora's Box; to use a more Asian metaphor he caught a tiger by the tail.

It is the elite, which includes Thaksin, that built Thailand into an economic powerhouse. I doubt all the rural poor are the idiots it seems many urban Thais view them to be. But I don't think enough are qualified at this time to run a globalized and highly urbanized central government.

The fault in this goes to the elite, to be sure, so Thaksin is on the right side of history. However, he's not helping the poor if he continues to use them as pawns in his war against the government even in the face of a bloodbath that will only further divide the country.

What follows is a background report. The one I presented yesterday, by a Westerner named Charles E Morrison (the President of the East-West Center) is the best introduction I've seen to the roots of the current political melee in Thailand. The second report drills deeper and presents Thaksin's view of things.

The author, Suranand Vejjajiva, served in the Thaksin Shinawatra cabinet when Thaksin was prime minister. He's now a political analyst. He wrote the report for the Bangkok Post, and he clearly directed it to Western readers who have no familiarity with Thailand's history and politics. That leaves him with considerable leeway to shade the picture; however, the outside world does need to know more about the views of Thaksin and his supporters.

I won't resist adding that the author's criticism of government-owned media outlets in Thailand is a case of the pot calling the kettle black. While Thaksin was in power The Bangkok Post, which is not government owned, bent over backward to accommodate his government.

A final note before I cede the floor: the "different colored" shirt groups he refers to are the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts; the latter was originally created as a protest against Thaksin and his government's alleged corruption while he was in power. The Yellow Shirts are mainly drawn from "middle and upper-class Bangkokians and Southerners of all classes and supported by the conservative factions of the Thai Army, some leaders of Democrat Party, and members of state-enterprise labor unions," according to Wikipedia. It's a long story, and you can read about it in the Wikipedia article on the Yellow Shirts -- the neutrality of which is disputed, of course.

The challenge of building unity in a world of diversity
by Suranand Vejjajiva
Published: 14/05/2010 at 12:00 AM
The Bangkok Post; Newspaper section: News

Have you listened to the government- and army-owned television and radio stations, which in Thailand mean all with the exception of community radios and cable/satellite TV stations? Blaring out are talk shows and advertising spots calling for kwam samakkee and pen nueng deo literally calling for "unity and harmony" and "becoming one".

Then you can look at the present political conflict with different coloured shirt groups of protesters on the streets. You cannot help but wonder whether these types of nationalistic propaganda are still relevant, or are they just nostalgic sentiments among the current holders of power?

The Kingdom of Siam, or Thailand as it has been called since the change of name in 1939, is a nation state which comprises different ethnic groups living together under the monarchy, with the power structure centralised in Bangkok, the capital of the nation for the last 228 years. With the Revolution of 1932 changing absolute monarchy to a constitutional one, the three pillars of Chard, Sassana, Phra-maha-kasat or "Nation, Religion, King" have become the core principle unifying the peoples under a one-nation state.

The centralisation model used during King Rama IV (1851-1868) and King Rama V (1851-1910) to fight off the threat of European colonialism was adapted into a nationalistic regime in the guise of democracy with a constitutional monarchy, to fend off neo-colonialism and communism especially after WWII. Ethnic cultures are suppressed to favour a modern, unified "Thai-ness". The Thai "central" dialect became the "official" Thai language. Bangkok is virtually the centre of the universe to which resources from upcountry flow and in which wealth is concentrated but is barely trickled down or disbursed back.

As economic globalisation took hold in the past two decades and the threat of communism subsided politically, the "end of history" scenario as Francis Fukuyama described is just an end to one chapter while the rise of the global village and the "clash of civilisations" which Samuel Huntington theorised emerged. The advent of the internet and modern communications technology coupled with developed transportation infrastructure have brought the world closer together. On the positive side is, of course, the apparent economic advancement, but on the negative side is the raised awareness in the differences between ethnic groups - the wellbeing of peoples and communities in different areas are accentuated.

Thailand is no different. It is an illusion to believe that the "melting pot" works here, blending Thai, Lao, Chinese, Mon, Khmer, Buddhist, Christian, Muslim, Lanna and Isan through to various hill-tribes, into a perfect soup, a united monoculture. We are, in reality, more like a jub-chai kind of culture, a hotchpotch or medley of different vegetables and meat, each with its own characteristic, simmering in one pot.

The Deep South exploded first. The injustice and discrimination felt among the southern Malay Muslims are the sharpest compared to groups in other regions. Historical wounds coupled with rhetoric from the present confrontation between Muslim fundamentalists and the Western world brought about a terror campaign in the three southernmost provinces, now in its sixth year since the raid on the armoury in Narathiwat on Jan 4, 2004.

Then the red shirts rose. The Lanna North, although more gentle and peaceful, has a long history dating back even before the Ayutthaya Period. The local pride could be felt everywhere and legends of the old kingdom prevailed. The Isan Northeast, more tough and rough, not only has the largest share of the population in the country but also a rich mixed culture of local folklore and great empires of the past.

In the past, Bangkok, with its centralised but extensive bureaucratic network, was able to co-opt those people in the outer regions, suppressing dissent while handing out development projects and assistance. A governor is appointed to "rule" each province in the manner of the feudal lord who acts as a benevolent representative from the central government. But under the veil, abuses of power and extraction of local resources to feed the economic growth of Bangkok caused discontent, with strong reactionary protests, even fighting.

This is especially true for the Isan people whose poverty made the region the hotbed for communist insurgencies before - even to the point of possible secession from the Kingdom of 16 provinces at the height of the Cold War.

One may believe that Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai Party was the stimulant that aroused such regionalism but in reality Thaksin was riding the historical wave at the right time and place. People saw Thaksin as the leader who opened up opportunities for economic and social advancement and political rights and liberties. The red shirt movement took hold because it is crystallised from the long and bitter struggles of the past. The injustice and double-standard issues are not a recent phenomenon.

To say that these red shirt people are politically inept and can be fooled into participating in political protests is totally absurd and ignorant. The sad part is a lot of people in the Bangkok establishment circle still think that way.

The key question is: Can Thailand remain unified as a nation? Speculation of a coming civil war is just the worst-case scenario. Even with a bloody conflict very likely, the Kingdom will remain united, to a certain degree and under terms of arrangement.

The key to unity is the institution of the monarchy. The vast majority of Thais remain loyal to the monarch and are in accord that the institution be the main pillar of the nation. And the monarchy must be revered and upheld above politics and conflicts.

But being united as a kingdom does not translate into unity under any particular government or the bureaucracy or the Bangkok establishment as the current propaganda is trying to make it seem. Beneath the constitutional monarchy is democracy. And in democracy lies the answer to the challenge of building unity in a world of diversity.

A democratic process will empower people by opening up economic opportunities and guaranteeing equality in accessing resources for development and progress. Rights and liberties will be ensured. The diversity can co-exist under one united umbrella but it has to be one of true democracy, not one manipulated by the privileged for their own benefit.

That is what the red shirts are asking for, really. And if they are crushed by the weight of the Bangkok establishment this weekend, be sure that they will rise back again, and again.

###

The Bangkok melee: what are its roots?

See May 16 post for updates May 16 and 17 on the Thailand crisis and additional background report.

Saturday, May 15, 2010
Voice of America reports today that "Bangkok is looking and sounding increasingly like a war zone."

Street fighting continues in the Thai capital, Bangkok, as anti-government protesters try to push back soldiers who have surrounded their camp. At least 22 people were killed in the last two days and at least 170 wounded.

Gunfire and explosions continued Saturday as protesters for a third day clashed with security forces surrounding their camp. Saturday afternoon, just north of the protest area, the Thai army spread razor wire and set up checkpoints. They put up signs that read "live fire zone" and urged people not to enter.

The anti-government red shirts set up their own barricades of rubber tires and slowly drove a yellow tanker truck toward the soldiers, until shots were fired. Demonstrators hit the ground and scattered into alleyways.

A few protesters could be seen limping away bleeding, apparently shot, but still defiant. They received medical care from nurses standing by to aid casualties.

Army spokesman Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd spoke on national television and said the government regrets the deaths and injuries. He says the army has been trying very hard to use measures to end the protest while avoiding any losses.

Authorities blame the clashes on violent elements among the protesters that they say have fired grenades and guns at soldiers who were forced to return fire. Protesters, however, say soldiers and snipers are aiming to kill them.

The latest violence broke out Thursday after a Thai general supporting the protesters was shot, apparently by a sniper. [Pundita note: When last I heard he's still alive but not expected to survive the head wound. The general helped organize and direct the protests and is adamantly against the protestors compromising with the government.] The protesters have occupied a central commercial district for more than two months, demanding the government step down and allow new elections.

A deal for November elections broke down after protest leaders demanded government leaders face charges for the violent clashes. The government says it expects to restore order within a matter of days.[...]

Over at the (London) Times Online, the headline today clearly indicates which side they're on:

Army brings death and carnage to the streets

What began in early March as a defiant and proud rally intended to oust the Thai Government peacefully and fight for social justice had, by last night, largely unravelled as the army strengthened its stranglehold around thousands of diehard protesters.

Ah, but it's more complicated than a fight for social justice, and rivalries among powerful Buddhist sects and power struggles in the military, as uncertainties grow about the heir to Bangkok's throne, have added to the tangle. And yet at the bottom of it all is a simple story that's played out countless times in history and is unfolding today even in the United States.

Several months ago David Brooks, in a talk with PBS NewsHour about the roots of the Tea Party protests, noted that American voters had long been demanding more transparency in their government but when they finally got it, they were outraged when they learned how Congress actually gets business done.

The more you know, the more critical you become and from there, the more demands you make. The Shah of Iran learned the hard way how the story often plays out. On paper his plan to bring more of Iran's youth into the education system was a great idea, and a necessary step in progress for his country. But when the Shah couldn't provide enough jobs for the graduates, the educated unemployed formed a large pool of the protestors who helped depose him.

The same basic situation is evident in Thailand. When Thaksin Shinawatra, a very shrewd populist, deployed the Bread & Circus routine among the rural poor in order to circumnavigate the ruling class, he unwittingly played Pandora as his term as prime minister wore on. Although Thailand is no stranger to coups getting the lid back on this time is not going to be easy.

For years Thailand had managed to strike a modern pose for the rest of the world but the country still had one foot in the past. Now the past is out in the open and Thailand's democracy must deal with it before the country can move forward.

As to whether Thailand's aging king can help, the situation is so dicey at this point that anything's possible. But he gave his answer four years ago when the events of today were already on the horizon:

On March 24, 2006, in front of a rally of 50,000 at Sanam Luang, Democrat party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva demanded that King Bhumibol Adulyadej appoint a new Prime Minister and Cabinet to resolve the political crisis. The People's Alliance for Democracy's (PAD), The Law Society of Thailand, and the Press Council of Thailand also called for royal intervention. Pongsak Payakavichien, of the Press Council, also called on the civil service to detach itself from the government and demand royal intervention.

However, demands for royal intervention have met with much criticism. The king himself in a speech on 26 April to newly appointed judges dismissed the notion, saying Article 7 of the Constitution invoked by the anti-Thaksin protestors did not give him that power:

"Asking for a royally appointed prime minister is undemocratic. It is, pardon me, a mess. It is irrational."

Wikipedia has been striving mightily to chronicle the mess, but the following analysis from 2009, which happily the Asia Times scooped up from the East-West Center, is the clearest (and briefest) orientation I've found to today's protests in Thailand:

The roots of Thailand's tension
By Charles E Morrison
April 23, 2009

Street politics appear to have become the norm in Thailand, a country once noted for its relative social stability, where even coups - Thailand has had 18 since 1932 - have often been genteel affairs.

Earlier this month, red-shirted demonstrators supporting former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra caused the cancelation of an Asian summit in Pattaya and disrupted daily life in parts of Bangkok in hopes of forcing the resignation of current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. This comes after the events of last November, when yellow-shirted demonstrators opposing the then-government of Thaksin's brother-in-law occupied government buildings and closed Bangkok's two international airports.

Thaksin lost the latest round of violence. Military forces contained the protests, forced the leaders to surrender or flee, and supplied buses to take rural demonstrators back home. But "victory" is surely only a respite, since the larger issues that are dividing Thai society and fueling the unrest remain unresolved. Power has already shifted back and forth three times since the September 2006 military coup, with enormous disruptions to Thailand's society, economy, and international standing.

Thaksin and Abhisit represent opposing forces, both claiming to promote democracy. Now living abroad to escape jail time for a conflict of interest conviction, Thaksin is the central, polarizing figure on the Thai political stage. A former policeman and telecom tycoon, he is the first Thai politician to fashion a power base independent of the traditional elite, Bangkok-centered institutions. He accomplished this by becoming a hero to many underprivileged Thais during the time he was prime minister through the lavish disbursal of money for rural health, education, and grants or loans to villages.

Thaksin was so popular in the countryside that he or his supporters have decisively won the past three national elections, and they are likely to win any new one. In Thaksin's view, his last two victories have been stolen by agents of the urban middle- and upper-classes, allied with high echelons in the military, the courts, and some royal advisors. During the recent demonstrations, his almost daily video messages to his red-shirted United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) supporters called for restoration of government elected by the majority.

British-born, Oxford-educated Abhisit represents Thailand's traditional elite. He heads the country's most venerable civilian political party, the Democrats, but is also the beneficiary of military support and street protests by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). Founded four years ago, the yellow-shirted PAD led urban protests against the Thaksin government, helping to trigger and justify a military coup in September 2006.

Following the coup, the military governed ineptly and had to step aside. When pro-Thaksin forces won new elections in December 2007, the PAD went back into action, culminating in last November's airport occupations. Although ultimately a Constitutional Court decision banning the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party, followed by political defections allegedly engineered by the military, brought Abhisit to power in December, the disruptive demonstrations and occupations by PAD provided the enabling environment.

Many in the urban and traditional elite regard Thaksin as a dangerous populist who gained personal fortune and won elections through bribery, vote-buying, and corruption. They assert that his governing methods were undemocratic, and his extra-judicial, draconian methods toward drug peddlers and insurgents in Thailand's turbulent south lacked accountability.

But Thaksin's opponents also have a democracy deficit, not having won a national election and even proposing a new, non-democratic constitution to perpetuate elite control. Political conflict is hardly new in Thailand, but in years past, the crisis might have been resolved by Thailand's respected monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Now the 81-year-old king is in fragile health, and some close to the palace are regarded as partisans.

With legitimacy problems plaguing both camps, along with the pressure of mobilized street mobs and determined adversarial leaders, an early resolution to the current crisis is unlikely. In fact, economic distress and longer-term uncertainty as the king ages may intensify the conflict.

The Thai political crisis reflects powerful forces that are reshaping the political landscape of parts of Southeast Asia. Increased levels of education and awareness, economic development, and new technologies are all helping to bring demanding new voices into politics, often threatening established elites and traditional power-sharing arrangements.

Although true reforms have eluded the Philippines, and Myanmar has remained mired under military rule, Indonesia has already undergone a major - and so far quite successful - democratic transformation, and Malaysia seems poised for change.

The introduction of new political and social forces often comes with serious disruptions, as are now occurring in Thailand.

But hopefully in the long run they will be accommodated in a new, more legitimate and democratic social contract that will endure long after the current political players have departed from the stage.

Charles E Morrison, president of the East-West Center, once taught Southeast Asian politics at the Johns Hopkins University.

(Used with the permission of the East-West Center.)