In Afghanistan the US must choose, but it won't

It's hardly worth it to give the Afghan War serious analysis because today the sick farce boils down to the same consideration that has always dominated the conflict: The United States can't make real inroads against Terror, Inc. in Afghanistan while remaining friends with the United Kingdom. 

That's the bottom line, which Washington keeps evading at all costs. As long as the British want the U.S. to go easy on Pakistan, there is simply no way to change the fundamental equation of the Afghan War. And the British will continue to want this because of the large Pakistani presence in the United Kingdom and because the Saudis support the Pakistan line on Afghanistan, and the Saudis and their Gulf Kingdom cohorts have enormous influence on the British government. 

That's the way the things are. But if you want to play along with the farce be prepared to endure more blasts of hot air, because now the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan is asking for "a few thousand" more U.S. troops to break what he calls with a straight face a "stalemate:"  

The US military justified the loss of territory by claiming the Afghan government’s “new Sustainable Security Strategy” calls for abandoning districts that are “not important.”

February 9, VOA: 

The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson told the Armed Services Committee he believes the U.S.-backed Afghan forces are “in a stalemate” in the 15 year-old war. He said to break that stalemate he needs “a few thousand” more soldiers to accompany the 8,400 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. [...]

February 1, Long War Journal:

The Afghan government “has lost territory to the insurgency” and “district control continues to decline,” the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) said in its most recent quarterly report to United States Congress. An estimated 15 percent of Afghanistan’s districts have slipped from the government’s control over that time period.

The picture is more bleak than what the Obama administration and top military commanders have let on when looked at from a longer distance. According to SIGAR, the Afghan government controls or influences just 52 percent of the nation’s districts today compared to 72 percent in Nov. 2015.

“SIGAR’s analysis of the most recent data provided by US Forces in Afghanistan (USFOR-A) suggests that the security situation in Afghanistan has not improved this quarter,” the watchdog group noted in its most recent assessment of the country. “The numbers of the Afghan security forces are decreasing, while both casualties and the number of districts under insurgent control or influence are increasing.”

“[T]he ANDSF [Afghan National Defense and Security Forces] has not yet been capable of securing all of Afghanistan and has lost territory to the insurgency,” since the last reporting period.

The Afghan government has lost control of more than six percent of Afghanistan’s 407 districts since SIGAR issued its last report, on Oct. 30.

According to SIGAR, the insurgency, which is overwhelmingly made up of the Taliban, now controls nine districts and influences another 32, while 133 districts are “contested.”

USFOR-A defines contested districts as “having ‘negligible meaningful impact from insurgents,’ contending that neither the insurgency nor the Afghan government maintains significant control over these areas.”
[...]
The US military justified the loss of territory by claiming the Afghan government’s “new Sustainable Security Strategy” calls for abandoning districts that are “not important.”
[...]
This strategy neglects the fact that the Taliban views rural districts or those “with less strategic importance” as critical to its insurgency. The Taliban uses theses districts to raise funds, recruit and train fighters, and launch attacks on population centers.

Additionally, Taliban allies such as al Qaeda run training camps and operate bases in areas under Taliban control. This strategy was explained by Mullah Aminullah Yousuf, the Taliban’s shadow governor for Uruzgan, in April 2016.

The Taliban has utilized its control of the rural districts to directly threaten major population centers.

[...]

The VOA report gets around to mentioning some points in the SIGAR report but then veers into covering an exchange about Russia during Nicholson's testimony: 

Senator John McCain suggested that Russia is “playing a significant” role in Afghanistan and Nicholson agreed, saying that Russian meddling this year “has become more difficult.”

Nicholson said Russia has tried to publicly legitimize the Taliban by saying the extremist group is helping in the fight against IS, but he called this idea a “false narrative.”

According to Nicholson, Afghan security forces have eliminated about half of the IS group’s fighters and reduced the territory they hold by two-thirds.

Nicholson said he feared [Russia's] public support could allow Taliban power to spill out of Afghanistan and into other countries as the group continues to gain territory.

The Russians got on a Taliban kick at a time when it was a virtual certainty that Hillary Clinton would be the next U.S. President and continue President Obama's war policy in Afghanistan. This would've meant the Russian military would have to continue trying to empty the ocean with a sieve as Terror, Inc. crossed into Russia. And Islamic State was by no means the only Russian concern. From the VOA report:

Nicholson said 20 of 98 designated terrorist groups operate in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, giving it the highest concentration of terror groups anywhere in the world.

That's right. 

As to the Russian argument that Islamic State is a much greater threat than the Taliban because unlike IS the Taliban don't have global ambitions -- Long War Journal has produced enough evidence to make it clear the Taliban do have global ambitions. But of course wanting and doing are not the same, and that probably would be the Russian retort. 

Yet the entire debate is red herring because the biggest global threat from terrorism isn't Islamic State or the Taliban; it's al Qaeda. Which the analysts at LWJ have been saying for years, and over those years have produced a small mountain of evidence to back up their assertion. I cannot conceive of a military counterterrorism specialist who would not now agree with them.

So. What next? The ball is in President Trump's court. But while it's ultimately useless to give advice about a farce, I think there's a cadre in the U.S. Congress that is less interested in beating the Taliban than in blocking Russian and Iranian influence in Afghanistan. Yet as with Syria, the U.S. would do well to accept help from both countries in keeping Terror, Inc. down to a duller roar in Afghanistan.

Unless the congressional cadre finds Terror, Inc. useful in harrying Russian and Iranian border patrols. If that's how they're thinking I'd ask the cadre to look at the calendar. This isn't 1980. Or 1998.

January 1998: How Jimmy Carter and I started the Mujahideen: 

Q: The former director of the CIA, Robert Gates, stated in his memoirs [“From the Shadows”], that American intelligence services began to aid the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan 6 months before the Soviet intervention. In this period you were the national security adviser to President Carter. You therefore played a role in this affair. Is that correct?

[Zbigniew] Brzezinski: Yes. According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahadeen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, 24 Dec 1979.

But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise: Indeed, it was July 3, 1979 that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention.

Q: Despite this risk, you were an advocate of this covert action. But perhaps you yourself desired this Soviet entry into war and looked to provoke it?

Brzezinski: It isn’t quite that. We didn’t push the Russians to intervene, but we knowingly increased the probability that they would.

Q: When the Soviets justified their intervention by asserting that they intended to fight against a secret involvement of the United States in Afghanistan, people didn’t believe them. However, there was a basis of truth. You don’t regret anything today?

Brzezinski: Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it? The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter: We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam war. Indeed, for almost 10 years, Moscow had to carry on a war unsupportable by the government, a conflict that brought about the demoralization and finally the breakup of the Soviet empire.

Q: And neither do you regret having supported the Islamic [integrisme], having given arms and advice to future terrorists?

Brzezinski: What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?

Q: Some stirred-up Moslems? But it has been said and repeated: Islamic fundamentalism represents a world menace today.

Brzezinski: Nonsense! It is said that the West had a global policy in regard to Islam. That is stupid. There isn’t a global Islam. Look at Islam in a rational manner and without demagoguery or emotion. It is the leading religion of the world with 1.5 billion followers. But what is there in common among Saudi Arabian fundamentalism, moderate Morocco, Pakistan militarism, Egyptian pro-Western or Central Asian secularism? [...]

Turned out it's not really a matter of commonality, is it, Mr Brzezinski? It's a matter of "stirred-up Moslems" being able to think and act strategically.

See also US Commander in Afghanistan Urges ‘Holistic Review’ of Pakistan Policy; Reuters via VOA, February 9, 2017

******* 

In need in soaring above it all

I'm not going to get through writing the next post without some uplifting music. Let me see .....

Okay, Ryuichi Sakamoto's "Sayonara" from the 1992 Heartbeat tour. 

Yup, that'll help me keep things in perspective while I study articles on Afghanistan.

********  

Supplying NATO/US in Afghanistan

2015:

Russia Shutters [northern route of] Northern Distribution Network
Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 111
By: John C. K. Daly
June 15, 2015
The Jamestown Foundation

On May 15 [2015], Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev issued a resolution closing the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a network of rail and road links across Russia and the post-Soviet space that had provided logistical transit to Afghanistan for International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) military equipment and weapons since 2008 (Moskovsky Komsomolets, May 19). 

Given the drawdown of ISAF’s presence in Afghanistan, the closure is less of a logistical problem than it once was. The forces supporting ISAF’s successor—Operation Resolute Support, numbering roughly 12,500 troops from 28 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies and 14 partner countries building up the sustainability of the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF)—have reverted to southern rail routes bypassing Russia, truck convoys through Pakistan and aerial flights for logistical support.

The 3,212-mile-long NDN, which began operating in February 2009, consisted of a series of three railway lines, operating in conjunction with Pakistan Ground Lines of Communication (PAKGLOC) truck routes, along with aerial resupply. The NDN was developed to deal with the pressing need to sustain the movement of equipment and supplies during Operation Enduring Freedom. Prior to the NDN’s establishment, the only means of resupply to US and coalition forces in Afghanistan was through Pakistan.

The two NDN “Northern Line of Communication” (NLOC) routes ran through Russia to Afghanistan via Latvia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, along with a subsidiary corridor transiting Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. 

A southern NDN “Central Line of Communication” (CLOC) bypasses Russia completely, as it runs through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, crossing the Caspian via rail ferries to Azerbaijan and Georgia. CLOC is still in use, as it is unaffected by Medvedev’s decree.

From its inception, the NDN proved a useful addition to the truck routes through Pakistan, which were frequently either attacked or shuttered by the Pakistani government over policy disputes with Washington.

[...]

****

Maps of the southern and northern networks:

NATO's Southern Distribution Network (via Pakistan) for supplying forces in Afghanistan - Wikipedia map

Nato's Northern Distribution Network (via Baltic and Caucasus routes) - Global Security map

Northern Distribution Network [NDN] - Global Security 

Northern Ground Line of Communication (NGLOC)

Established in 2008, the Northern Distribution Network is a key strategic alternative to the congested Pakistan Ground Line of Communication. USTRANSCOM is constantly seeking ways to decrease cost and delivery time, and obtain two-way cargo flow on as many routes as possible in support of operations in Afghanistan. The lack of a deepwater port in Afghanistan put ISAF at the mercy of neighboring countries to transport supplies. This geopolitical situation jeopardizes continuity in the distribution of cargo when countries decide to halt supply convoys or close services to ISAF contractors. The limitations of the Pakistan ground line of communication (PAKGLOC) and the scale of the improvised response with the “northern distribution network” complete the story of why distribution in Afghanistan is so difficult.

In mid-2008 the vulnerability of the PAKGLOC and a forecasted increase of supplies necessary to support surging troop levels in 2009 led planners to develop the northern distribution network as an alternate distribution pipeline into Afghanistan. Because the proposed shipments for non-military goods to ISAF in Afghanistan were being sent via commercial means, and in accordance with the 04 April 2008 letter from Russia to NATO, shipping supplies to ISAF (not Operation Enduring Freedom) via the NDN began in 2009. As long as all the commercial requirements are met, the NDN shipments would be treated as would any commercial shipment.

Due largely to the cost of shipping goods via air to Afghanistan, Germany approached Russia to make use of the pre-existing land transit agreement. According to the November 2008 agreement, the Germans would be able to ship any military goods across Russia to Afghanistan to support ISAF, including tanks and other heavy weapons. The Government of Russia could give its permission for such shipments to take place for up to one year. Germany must, however, declare what goods would be sent with each shipment. Germany also had agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan covering the land transit of goods to support ISAF, although Germany has not yet concluded an agreement to ship weapons and ammunition through Uzbekistan. Other NATO countries may include their goods in German transit shipments to Afghanistan as well. Both countries wanted to help stabilize Afghanistan and so it was natural that they cooperate in this venture.

After almost two years of negotiation and development, in March 2010, the commander of U.S. Transportation Command reported to Congress that while the PAKGLOC remained the primary route (50 percent), 30 percent of supplies transported into theater were traveling the northern distribution network, with the remaining 20 percent arriving by air.

The Northern Distribution Network, with U.S. Transportation Command in the lead, won the Supply Chain Council's 2010 Award for Supply Chain Operational Excellence in the Defense Sector. In announcing the award, the Supply Chain Council noted the NDN project "identified and established new distribution routes that connect Baltic and Caspian ports with Afghanistan via Russia, Central Asia and the Caucasus. The flexible supply line, which relies entirely on commercial shippers, now serves as an alternative to the vulnerable ground route that follows the Karachi-Peshawar road through Pakistan that had been used exclusively since 2001." 

The NDN is a joint initiative of multiple agencies within the Department of Defense, and in addition to USTRANSCOM, includes U.S. Central Command, U.S. European Command, U.S. Department of State, and the Defense Logistics Agency.

The Northern Distribution Network (NDN) is a bi-directional system air, land and sea supply routes that support the war in Afghanistan from the north. When U.S. Transportation Command wanted to replace lines of communication that involved sealift to Pakistan and over-the-road transport into Afghanistan, it turned to U.S. Army Europe (USAREUR) and U.S. European Command for expertise in getting diplomatic approval and establishing a Baltic route traversing Latvia, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (or Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) and a Caucasus route across Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

USAREUR completed missions on its own years earlier that proved the NDN was viable. This success and established relationships with these countries were crucial to securing diplomatic clearances and creating the NDN. USAREUR members installed radio frequency identification readers at the ports in Riga, Tallinn (Estonia) and the Republic of Georgia, reducing manual tracking, improving visibility of cargo.

USAREUR logisticians also advocated for direct shipments from the Defense Logistics Agency depot in Germersheim, Germany, that can potentially cut shipping time by 10-35 days and container costs by nearly two-thirds. As a result each week approximately 20 trucks traverse the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, the Black Sea, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan.

USAREUR's Logistics Automation Branch continues to engage partner nations to improve visibility of cargo at critical border crossings and ports.USAREUR also continues to pursue direct rail shipments from the EUCOM AOR that could result in rail traffic departing Germany and transiting Poland, Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and then continue by rail through Uzbekistan or by truck via Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In addition, USAREUR established an operations hub at Romania's Mikhail Kogalniceanu Air Base to support its deployments, which can also sustain retrograde movement of cargo from Afghanistan to Europe or the United States.

With decades of experience working with partner nations strategically located to support U.S. forces, the lead in traffic management, critical roles in obtaining diplomatic clearances and maintaining visibility of DOD material in transit, and other responsibilities, USAREUR is vital to keeping supplies flowing to forces in Operation Enduring Freedom.

[END]

*********

Pakistan senate retaliates after U.S. fails to issue visa to senate deputy chairman

Pakistan retaliates after U.S. denied visa to politician
February 12, 2017

The Associated Press via Fox News

ISLAMABAD – The chairman of Pakistan's senate says the body will not welcome any U.S. delegation, member of Congress or dignitary in Islamabad.

Chairman Raza Rabbani said in a statement that no Pakistani senate delegation would visit the U.S. until an explanation for the delay in issuing a visa to Maulana Ghafoor Haideri is given by U.S. authorities.

The move comes after the U.S. failed to issue a visa to the senate's deputy chairman, a member of the right-wing Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam political party. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman is known for pro-Taliban and anti-U.S. stances.

A U.S. embassy spokesman in Islamabad said Sunday they could not comment on visa cases due to privacy laws.

Haideri was to travel Sunday to New York to attend a meeting at the United Nations.

[END REPORT]

********

"Pakistan roughs up a US thinktank for adverse report:" A little excitement at Hudson Institute

I wonder if the hectoring from the Pakistani belligerents at the meeting was inspired (or prompted) by Islamabad's friends in Beijing.  Just a guess.    

"If anything, there is growing recognition in Washington that Pakistan has used its access to Afghanistan and terrorism under the cover of its nuclear arsenal to extract aid from the US."

By Chidanand Rajghatta| TNN
Feb 11, 2017, 09.28 PM IST
Times of India

(WASHINGTON) Events at Washington DC's myriad think-tanks are usually solemn, erudite affairs, marked by scholarship and cordiality. But a discussion on Friday at the Hudson Institute centering an experts' report that asked the Trump administration to take a tough new line on Pakistan turned into a raucous spectacle after the Pakistani Embassy challenged the contents through argumentative representatives and stooges.

One questioner had to be evicted by security after he hectored Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US and a scholar-diplomat who is one of the authors of the report. Soon after he left the room shouting that Haqqani had betrayed Pakistan and is a ''RAW agent,'' another Pakistani diplomat took the floor claiming ''I have the mike...I am in control,'' as he began reciting official Pakistani talking points that appeared to have been handed over to several dubious questioners.

The familiar trope included arguments about the centrality of the Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan and how nothing could move forward unless U.S mediated and resolved the matter, Pakistan's sacrifices in the war on terror (despite hosting many US- and UN-designated terrorists), how the U.S has used and discarded Pakistan, and India's subversive activities in Baluchistan, all of which the report and its principals have more or less dismissed. If anything, there is growing recognition in Washington that Pakistan has used its access to Afghanistan and terrorism under the cover of its nuclear arsenal to extract aid from the US.

The experts' report essentially calls for a halt to this, asking the Trump administration to ''stop chasing the mirage of securing change in Pakistan's strategic direction by giving it additional aid or military equipment,'' and instead warn Islamabad (after a grace period of one year) that it would be declared a state sponsor of terrorism. It also suggests Pakistan's political and military elites be subjected to travel sanctions if it not change course.

The report also urges the Trump administration to ''avoid viewing and portraying Pakistan as an ally and to deal with it as a non-ally, which has engaged in supporting the Afghan Taliban," while recommending Washington remain engaged in Afghanistan while staying out of the Kashmir imbroglio and letting India and Pakistan resolve issues bilaterally.

In fact, Lisa Curtis, one of the principal authors of the report, who is tipped for sub-continent related job in either Washington or the region in the new Trump administration, spoke of the normalcy she witnessed on a recent visit to Jammu and Kashmir after a break of 15 years, including the participation of former militants in the political process and the visible withdrawal of the army from the streets in Srinagar.

The growing belief in Washington that Pakistan has no equities in Jammu and Kashmir (in the words of Christine Fair, a Georgetown University scholar and trenchant critic of the old U.S appeasement line on Pakistan) appears to have spooked Islamabad. The Pakistani Embassy sent several representatives to the Hudson event to hector the participants, including, according to one account, the resident ISI undercover representative, who bussed in six disrupters who succeeded in embarrassing Pakistan and annoying the gathering with their remonstration.

[END REPORT]

********

North Korea fires ballistic missile in the direction of Sea of Japan (Enjoy your golf with President Trump, PM Abe)

Breaking News

02:39 - 12 February 2017 (updated 03:18)
Sputnik

North Korea has fired a ballistic missile, the Yonhap News Agency reports, citing South Korean military sources.

The missile was fired in the direction of the Sea of Japan at around 7:55 am February 12, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff. It was fired from Banghyeon in North Pyongan Province; the flight path has not yet been determined.

"The military is determining if the missile is the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile," a military source told Yonhap.

The Musudan missile's range is estimated at about 3,000 kilometers. Based on the missile's launch site, North Korea experts speculate that it is the Musudan and not a longer-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

The test had been expected for some time, with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un reportedly having announced a test in his New Year's Eve address to the nation. It was also suggested that the country might test an ICBM this month to mark former leader Kim Jong-il's birthday, or that it would test a medium-range weapon.

It is unknown what type of missile was fired. 

US President Donald Trump has taken a belligerent stance on North Korea. In response to reports that the country was in the final stages of developing a missile that could reach the US at the turn of the year, he tweeted, "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't happen!"

Last month, the US provided $1 million in flood relief to the rogue nuclear state after flooding and typhoon damage killed hundreds and left thousands homeless. It was the first such aid to have been provided in five years. 

North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests since 2006. The country claims to be capable of conducting a nuclear strike on the US.

Just last week, US military authorities expressed concern that the country could not handle an escalation of tensions with North Korea without withdrawing from some of its other global commitments. 

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is currently in the US, meeting with Trump. 

DETAILS TO FOLLOW. 

[END REPORT]

********

Associated Press, are you lying about Syria's government or just sloppy?

From the AP wire report yesterday, picked up by The New York Times and other media outlets (Assad Says US Troops Welcome in Syria to Fight 'Terrorism'):

However, Assad's government has labelled all armed opposition to his rule — including the U.S.-backed rebels — as "terrorists."

This is a well-worn accusation, trotted out by all mainstream Western media outlets as a standard insertion in virtually every report on Syria's government. But the accusation is a lie or at best sloppy reporting.          

From FARS, 25 January 2017: Jafari: Syrian Government, Opposition Groups Agree to Join Forces against Terror

Just to let AP know, Bashar Jafari is Syria's permanent representative to the United Nations. 

By now Syria's government has given amnesty to what must be countless opposition groups that took up arms against the government. And the government has described many of these groups not as terrorists but as opposition or in similar language.

However, groups that deploy terrorist tactics against the government and the country's civilians are indeed termed terrorists by the Syrian government. This is for a reason I am afraid the U.S. government and America's media establishment have found increasingly hard to confront, let alone acknowledge.

But every government of a sovereign nation is entitled to treat foreign fighters attacking its civilian nationals, and trying to overthrow it, as terrorists. And entitled to designate every foreign government waging overt and proxy war against it as a state sponsor of terrorism.

That means the United States of America should be classified as a state sponsor of terrorism for its actions in Syria.

For this reason I find myself in rare disagreement with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. I do not think he should have  welcomed American troops into Syria under any circumstances because the invitation clouds U.S. actions in Syria up to this point.

This said, I understand why he extended the invitation. The least that the American news media should now do in response is stop passing along untruths about Assad's government and Syria. 

********

Robespierre with a Smart Phone unexpectedly resigns from Federal Reserve

I think more than any other single person Daniel Tarullo destroyed community banking in America. Now the monster is leaving without a fight. Why?  [shrugging]  Maybe this had something to do with it. From Zero Hedge yesterday:

Last October, as part of the Podesta email leaks, we disclosed the particularly close relationship between Fed governor Dan Tarullo and Barack Obama, which emerged as part of a previously undisclosed memo involving the AIG bailout. We speculated that as a result of this now public disclosure it was possible that Tarullo's days at the Fed were numbered should Donald Trump win the election. ...

Top Federal Reserve official resigns as bank deregulation looms
By Jason Lange and Lisa Lambert | WASHINGTON
10 February 2017 - 7:01 PM EST
Reuters

The Federal Reserve Board's top bank regulator said on Friday he would resign, giving a boost to President Donald Trump's plans to ease reforms put in place after the 2007-09 financial crisis.

Daniel Tarullo, a strong regulator who was dovish on monetary policy in his seven years on the board, said in his resignation letter to Trump he would leave the U.S. central bank on or around April 5.

With his resignation, Trump will have three positions to fill on the Fed's Board of Governors, which at full strength has seven members.

Much of Tarullo's legacy involves erecting safeguards after the 2007-2009 financial crisis and accompanying recession, where big banks crumbled or were driven by the Fed and U.S. Treasury into shotgun mergers intended to make them stronger.

With the goal of never needing taxpayer bailouts of failed banks, Tarullo has been strict about carrying out the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law and administering rigorous "stress tests" annually to banks on how prepared they are to withstand unexpected shocks.

The tests gave Tarullo huge control over the largest U.S. banks. Performance in the exams dictates how much money they can return to shareholders in dividends or spend on stock buybacks. Failure puts bank bosses under pressure and lenders devote thousands of staff and hundreds of millions of dollars to passing the tests.

Tarullo has also pushed for bigger capital buffers and other checks on potential risks banks may pose to the world's financial system.

His departure leaves many questions about the future of financial regulation. Tarullo sees the direction of changes under Trump as unclear, but said he expects the core elements put in place during his tenure of increasing capital requirements, risk management, and a resolution regime for big banks may survive.

"I'm hopeful that they really do command a broad enough consensus that this was a way to combat the 'too big to fail' problems which obviously bedeviled the system in the years leading up to and in the crisis itself," he said in an interview with Reuters.

One bank executive, who declined to be quoted by name, said the industry is relieved the Tarullo era is over. Bankers had long complained he and his staff kept changing the stress tests and balance-sheet reviews in ways that arbitrarily ratcheted up capital requirements behind closed doors.

"He made up rules in a black box and would not bother to explain their rationale to banks," the executive said.

Tarullo said changes to the stress tests, known by the acronym CCAR, that he and Yellen have proposed, on including capital buffers and a Global Systemically Important Bank surcharge, are "moving along right now."

"It's going to provide more certainty to the banks about what the next final stage of CCAR will look like," he said.

Liberal and progressive groups said Tarullo had fought to protect Americans from another financial crisis or economic catastrophe.

"Governor Tarullo has stood steadfast as a sentinel on the front lines of a six-year war to turn the Dodd Frank financial reform law into a reality," said Dennis Kelleher, president of Better Markets, a group created to promote economic stability.

Besides crafting regulation, Tarullo is a voter on interest rate policy, with a record of tending toward caution on raising rates. The Fed signaled in December it could raise rates three times this year. Tarullo plans to attend the March meeting.

LIFE AFTER TARULLO

Bank stocks moved higher in the moments following Tarullo's resignation announcement, with the S&P banks industry group index rising 0.35 percent.

The Trump administration has already said it would appoint a new Fed governor charged with heading financial regulation, a post created in Dodd-Frank. Tarullo was never formally confirmed for it, but stepped into the role.

In addition to the three appointments Trump will be able to make soon, he will be able to nominate a replacement for Fed chief Janet Yellen when her four-year term as chair ends in January 2018. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer also completes his term in 2018.

David Nason, a former deputy to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in 2008 and General Electric executive, is the front runner for the regulation post, according to sources familiar with the matter. John Allison, a former BB&T CEO who has said he would like to abolish the Fed, has also been mentioned as a potential nominee.

In recent months, Tarullo sharply questioned moves by Republican lawmakers to roll back post-crisis regulations, putting him at odds with House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling. Last year he criticized Hensarling's proposal to give banks a choice between complying with Dodd-Frank or holding higher amounts of capital, saying the capital ratio was too low. Hensarling is expected to introduce a new draft of the bill soon.

(Additional reporting by Jonathan Spicer and Jennifer Ablan in New York and Ann Saphir in San Francisco; Writing by David Chance and Lisa Lambert; Editing by Linda Stern and James Dalgleish)

[END REPORT]

********

Michael Isikoff misleads public about Caesar Photos during his interview with Assad

Reporter Michael Isikoff brought up the Caesar Photos Affair during his interview with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which Yahoo News published today. He mentioned the affair to Assad to back up the more recent accusation that the Syrian government summarily executed between 5,000 and 13,000 Syrian prisoners. 

Assad is well informed on the affair, but he only had a half hour to get his points across in the Yahoo News video of the interview. So instead of playing attorney he simply dismissed the Caesar photos as fake and/or the claims connected with them as unsubstantiated.

The casualty of lightly passing over the affair, however, was the Yahoo News reader. More specifically, the reader's attempt to understand what's really going on in Syria. 

For a crash course on what's wrong with the Caesar Photos Affair read Rick Sterling's March 4, 2016 analysis for Counterpunch, The Caesar Photo Fraud that Undermined Syrian Negotiations. To boil down the analysis to the most shocking revelation about the photos:

Almost half the photos show just the opposite of the allegations Caesar made about the Syrian government. 

If you ask how, then, he hoped to get away with it, because none of the photos were published at first. It was only in 2015, when Human Rights Watch was allowed to see the photos, that the truth started to come out.

But it might have been HRW or some other human rights outfit who then said (paraphrasing): Well just because Caesar was wrong about 46 percent of the photos doesn't mean we shouldn't believe him about the 54 percent. 

The problem being that there are a lot of problems with the 54 percent, and there are problems with Caesar himself, as Rick Sterling details.

By the way, for those who might be chary of reading Sterling's analysis because they don't feel like looking at gruesome photos of dead people -- the Counterpunch article, which is a condensed version of Sterling's report for an activist group connected with a Christian monastery in Syria, doesn't have any photos or even detailed descriptions of the condition of the corpses. You'd have to go to the full report for a sampling of the photos.

The only place Sterling misses the mark is when he outright accuses the CIA of being involved in what was clearly a propaganda operation; that's a plausible guess but it can't be proved, so he should have framed the CIA mention as a guess or question and not included it with his analysis.

He also makes a rookie mistake as a writer (he's a retired aerospace engineer) in that he attempts to persuade before he explains. So for readers who are completely new to the Caesar Photos Affair, I'd suggest skipping Sterling's introduction and going straight to his 12 points, which, with the exception of the CIA accusation, are clear enunciations of what's obviously wrong with Caesar's accusations.

There are other problems with Isikoff's interview; for one he wrongly characterizes Assad's attitude as "combative and unyielding." But maybe Isikoff isn't used to the Socratic style of discussion. Here's an example of how things went, from the transcript of the interview published at SANA, Syria's state information agency:

[Isikoff] Question 37: Is it a mistake to use barrel bombs and chlorine gas?

President Assad: You have to choose which part of the narrative is correct. Once they said we are using indiscriminate bombs and they called it barrel bombs. The other day, they said we targeted hospitals and schools and convoys. We either have precise armaments or we have indiscriminate armaments. So, which one do you choose?

In the face of reason Isikoff's choice was to shift gears:

Question 38: Well, you do acknowledge though that innocent civilians… there have been civilian casualties in this war?

President Assad: Of course, every war is a bad war, every war is a bad war. You cannot talk about good war. Let’s agree about this. Every war has causalities; every war has innocent people to pay the price ...

Yes, war is hard on innocent people; in the case of Syria it would be a lot less hard on them if Michael Isikoff and other members of the American press resolved the mysterious physics of the Syrian air force's barrel bombs.

Those bombs have a way of being so crude they miss military targets when the American press wants to point up civilian casualties in Syria, and being precise killing machines when the press wants to report the Syrian air force is bombing hospitals and schools.

Actually many mysteries of the Syrian war could be solved if only the American journalism establishment gave more time to studying itself. There is such a thing as justifiable war propaganda, but the United States has been orchestrating an undeclared war against Syria's government. In that circumstance propaganda becomes an invitation to war crimes that are hard to investigate.

*******

"a fragrance used to come and I kept getting lost"

Commenter "sakurakou2009" provided for YouTube viewers an English translation of the transporting Arziyan, a Sufi kalam song created for the film "Delhi6" -- melody by A.R. Rahman, Hindi lyrics by Prasoon Joshi, sung by Javed Ali and Kailash Kher. I've republished the translation below, with thanks to both the translator and Sufi Ashram, which uploaded this video version of the song to YouTube. 

There are other translations of the kalam; here's one that includes the verses in Hindi for those who want to sing along. But to my mind the one by Sakurakou expresses in English the paradoxical aspect of the religious impulse, which the Bhakti (Hindu devotee of God) Ramakrishna Paramahamsa conveyed in his famous retort to the Yogi: "I don't want to be sugar! I want to taste sugar!"

The paradox put another way: Are you truly the One you seek, as the Yogis tell us? Or are you a spark of the divine, always seeking the Source of your divinity?

As to the resolution of the paradox, I'd say it's to strive to remember to leave room for the fact that you don't know it all.   

Arziyan video.

Translation at YouTube:

all the requests, are written on my face what can i ask from you, you yourself can understand o lord... my lord
wrinkles, and wrinkles are there on my forehead, o lord

mend my fate o lord, my lord am bowing at your doorstep, have fallen, and recovered mend my fate o lord, my lord.. whoever came to your door, whatever head came to bow to you looked to everyone like drunk, was seen dancing intoxicated

he had come thirsty, and got a river full in the beam of (divine) light, he was bathed (and thus), got across [overcame] (his problems).. a fragrance used to come and i kept getting lost there was a silky mirage and i would keep looking at it.. when I reached your street, then only I saw the reality i only possessed the fragrance, that you made me find.. scattering into pieces, i very well know but I don't know the etiquette of praying let me stay be bowed in prayer, i will not go anywhere now now if you reject me, then i will not be able to recover with my head held high i had asked for so many things had seen so many dreams, had tried so hard.. (but) when you appeared in front me, with your presence, i could not meet your eyes bowing my head, in a moment.. bowing my head, in a moment what did i not achieve.. maula maula maula mere maula

[maula = God, or Master who shows us the divine teachings; mere = more]

********

Belgians waking up the hard way about Islamism

"According to the report, many Sunni Muslims consider Wahhabi principles to be the norm these days."

From a 2012 photograph accompanying a report today from RT Salafist proselytizing in Belgium didn't start recently, but from the RT report, Radical Islam is spreading across Belgium, Salafists preach via TV & online media - leaked report, it's snowballing in the country. The Belgian authorities just didn't seem to understand that the Salafists play a long game. 

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is known as a straight talker, so he didn't mince words when a delegation from Belgium's Parliament visited Syria last week on an extended fact-finding mission and spoke with him. One of the things he told them: Most European countries harmed their people’s interests through their support for terrorist organizations.

He said a lot more. From SANA's February 6 report (with accompanying video) on his meeting with the delegation:

The President said there are Western politicians who work only with the aim of winning the elections and not for serving the interests of their countries and people, which has led to the emergence of European policies that are dissociated from reality regarding some issues, which in turn has cast a shadow over the position and role of the European Union in the world.

The Europeans are so dissociated they spent years watching their countries being invaded and didn't lift a finger, until some invaders got impatient and started killing them in cold blood. 

Have Belgians finally gotten the memo? Do they now realize that what happened to Syrians can easily happen to them? There is one Belgian parliamentarian who has been awake for some time. From a February 3 SANA report:

Member of Belgium’s Federal Parliament Filip Dewinter said the European governments picked the wrong side in the war in Syria, having stood by and supported the Wahhabi terrorists instead of siding by the legitimate Syrian government.

The remarks of Dewinter, who is heading a Belgian parliamentary delegation on a visit to Syria, came during a meeting with Governor of Aleppo province Hussein Diyab.

Dewinter said that during his earlier visit to Syria two years ago, he warned that the terrorism in Syria would backfire on its supporters and would strike Europe and the US, noting that this is what has actually happened.

He hoped that the victory against the terrorists in Aleppo will help open the European politicians' eyes to the facts and drive them to change their current approach towards the events in Syria.

Dewinter pointed out that the Belgian delegation’s visit to Aleppo aims at inspecting firsthand the situation on the ground away from the false picture promoted by some Western media outlets, so to convey the real image to the Belgian and European publics.

[...]

However, it's a little late in the day. Back to the RT report: 

Salafism is advancing in Belgium, a leaked report from the country’s coordination body for threat assessment says, adding that Wahhabi TV stations and online media operate freely while radical literature can be found in most Islamic bookshops.

The report by the Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (OCAM), a special body which works in cooperation with security and intelligence agencies to assess the level of terrorist threat in Belgium, was leaked by De Standaard newspaper on Wednesday.

“An increasing number of mosques and Islamic centers in Belgium are controlled by the Wahhabism,” the document states.

Wahhabism, a strict form of Islam promoted inside Saudi Arabia as well as through government programs abroad, has indirectly encouraged the rise of Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL). It is sometimes considered the true Salafist movement, and calls for a return to the original “purity” of Islam.

The movement’s tenets include the supremacy of Sharia law, the idea of violent jihad, and takfirism, which encourages the killing of Muslims considered heretics for not following its interpretation of Islam.

The Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (OCAM) calls Wahhabism “one-dimensional Islam,” adding that it is "spreading in the Muslim world, including Muslim minorities in the West.”

According to the report, many Sunni Muslims consider Wahhabi principles to be the norm these days.

Wahhabi supporters try “to turn away Muslims from West European values and standards,” which they perceive as being contrary to the teachings of the Koran, according to OCAM.

De Standaard, which read the report, says that Wahhabi imams regularly preach in Belgian mosques and many mosques are strictly Wahhabist, particularly in the cities of in Brussels, Antwerp, and Mechelen.

There are even Wahhabi TV channels and online media, according to the report.

“Most Islamic bookshops and online stores in Belgium offer exclusively Wahhabist, Salafist [content] printed in Arabic or in translation.”

Thus, “a moderate imam in his mosque” can do nothing about this “media violence,” the report concludes.

OCAM CEO Paul Van Tigchelt refused to comment on the leaked report to De Standaard.

Belgium has been on high alert since twin suicide bombings hit Zaventem Airport and Maelbeek metro station on last March. The station is near the buildings of the EU Commission and the Council of the European Union, as well as the headquarters of NATO.

Numerous raids have been conducted in the mainly Muslim Molenbeek area of Brussels, which is often referred to as an “Islamist hotspot.” Many of the suspects involved in the Paris attacks grew up and lived in Molenbeek, including terrorist mastermind Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the Abdeslam brothers, and Mohamed Abrini, who was also involved in the Brussels attacks.

In November, Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders warned the EU of an increasing influx of returning fighters who could carry out terrorist attacks in Europe.

[END REPORT] 

Have a nice day, Belgium.

********

British regime facing landmark legal challenge to its weapons sales to Riyadh

Would that the U.S. regime faced the same challenge.  

"Continued UK arms sales to Saudis is outrageous act"
8 February 2017 - 17:39

RT

Despite thousands of civilians killed in Yemen by the Saudi-led coalition, the UK is continuing to supply the Saudis with arms – a fundamentally wrong policy that the British people will not benefit from, says Bahraini political activist Saeed al-Shehabi.

The British government is facing a landmark court case. Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT) is taking legal action in an attempt to stop the UK from selling weapons to Saudi Arabia.

RT: The High Court began this week its three-day judicial review of the UK's weapons sales to Saudi Arabia. How likely is it that we will see a full suspension of arms sales to Riyadh?

Saeed al-Shehabi: The media, especially the Western media, has not given it enough exposure. Now that the case against the British government has come to the court, I’m not sure whether the court will rule in favor of CAAT which brought the case. It is an outrageous act by the British government to continue supplying the Saudis with those weapons, knowing that more than 15,000 people have been killed, at least 5,000 civilians, including probably 2,000 children. Families live in Yemen now, because of the air, sea, and land blockade; nothing can get through this blockade to the people.

That is a humanitarian catastrophe, the situation that has been ignored by the world. Whether the court would rule against the government – I am not sure. But there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the Saudis have broken the international humanitarian laws, and that they have committed war crimes on an enormous scale.

[...]

********