A reasonably well-behaved bunch of ex-jailbirds

Last night John Batchelor read to his audience a Stratfor report indicating that background checks have revealed many New Orleans evacuees in shelters have a criminal record. That news caused Pundita to slap her forehead in sudden understanding.

Of course! There would be background checks once state and federal funds are distributed and the government becomes responsible for arranging temporary housing. People who have spent time in jail are notoriously shy of red tape.

That brings to light another reason why many of New Orleans' poorest did not evacuate ahead of Katrina. They preferred to take their chances with Katrina rather than cozy up with the Man.

Interestingly, a report published in The Seattle Times reveals that the vast majority of horror stories about rampant crime in New Orleans in the immediate wake of Katrina were unsubstantiated rumors.(1) (Hat tip: Powerline)

As floodwaters forced tens of thousands of evacuees into the [Superdome] and Convention Center, news of unspeakable acts poured out of the nation's media...The picture that emerged was one of the impoverished, overwhelmingly African-American masses of flood victims resorting to utter depravity, randomly attacking each other, as well as the police trying to protect them and the rescue workers trying to save them.

Four weeks after the storm, few of the widely reported atrocities have been backed with evidence. The piles of murdered bodies never materialized, and soldiers, police officers and rescue personnel on the front lines assert that, while anarchy reigned at times and people suffered indignities, most of the worst crimes reported at the time never happened.

What cosmic message might we glean by comparing the Statfor and Seattle Times reports?

For starters, local authorities need to use the brain God gave them when they do evacuation and quarantine planning. (Pundita hopes there is a quarantine plan for every city; reference the relentless march of H5N1.)

I think it can be gathered that only the horrific televised images of New Orleanians trapped in floodwaters, and the images of officials in Texas and other parts falling over themselves to be nice to New Orleans evacuees, convinced ex-offenders in cities such as Houston to evacuate ahead of Rita.

Those images will quickly fade from memory. So officials involved with disaster planning need to factor in the need for a special approach when it comes to the 'community' of ex-offenders. And there are parole jumpers and people evading arrest warrants residing in many cities. These would be the least likely to obey an evacuation order or mandatory quarantine.

To say, "Well we'll just shoot them on sight," if they disobey a quarantine is the Russian Roulette approach to solving a problem. How many people have they been exposed to outside the quarantine area before you see them and shoot them? How many helicopters, Coast Guard and National Guard have to be tied up rescuing people whose only reason for not obeying an evacuation order is that they fear a return to prison? Or deportation, for that matter?

Think. We need to start thinking real hard, real careful, real fast. We need to get our heads out of the political mindset and get them into the triage mindset. We need to stop acting as if we have all the time in the world to make life-and-death decisions. We need to learn to think like Americans instead of Democrats and Republicans because sure enough plague, hurricanes and Ayman al Zawahiri do not distinguish between US political party machines.

1) The Seattle Times Reports of anarchy at Superdome overstated by Brian Thevenot and Gordon Russell of Newhouse News Service.