Tuesday, July 25

He who predict course of war damn silly

"Dear Pundita:
Regarding your theory that Iran wants to dispose of Hezbollah. I don't agree, but assuming you're on the right track, could it be that whatever Iran originally had in mind, they seriously underestimated the response and now they're locked in a proxy war with Israel? A war that is building to an Armageddon-like exchange with Israel?
Joseph in Phoenix"

Dear Joseph:
Confucius must have had a saying to cover your question, but I assume that Iran’s military has war-gamed the kind of scenario you imagine and found it does not inspire confidence among their major trading partners. If there is one thing Germany, China and Russia hate it’s mess.

As I’ve indicated before, Iran has everything to gain by presenting their nuclear program as reasonable -- even though nobody outside Iran believes it to be reasonable. But as long as they keep up an act, the world community is nicely boxed in. They would have to drop the act if they set off Armageddon.

But then miscalculation becomes a potent force in any war and can overtake all planning. So we watch and wait and keep our ears perked during the war report segments on John Batchelor’s radio program. So far, John Loftus and Aaron Klein's reports have been on the money.

And don't miss Batchelor's latest column for The New York Sun titled War Elephant. One can only hope that Europe will somehow overcome their 20th Century history and prove Batchelor wrong in this case.

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