Assault on Paris: the 2008 Mumbai swarm attack model UPDATES (Eastern Time): 10:25 PM, 10:50 PM, 1:50 AM Nov 14, 2:05 AM, 2:25 AM, 8:25 AM

8:25 AM EST, Sat. Nov 14
PARIS TERROR ATTACKS
NOV 14 2015, 8:09 AM EST
Paris Attacks: ISIS Claims Responsibility, France Vows 'Merciless' Responseby CASSANDRA VINOGRAD, NANCY ING and JASON CUMMINGS

PARIS — French President Francois Hollande vowed a "merciless" response to the deadliest attacks on the country's soil since World War II as ISISclaimed responsibility Saturday for a coordinated assault on Paris.

A state of emergency was declared and France deployed 1,500 troops after a near-simultaneous series of explosions and shootings brought the city to a horrified standstill overnight. The death toll rose to 127 and 200 other people were wounded, officials said.

French police were hunting possible accomplices of eight assailants, who attacked concert-goers, cafe diners and soccer fans in at least six locations in the French capital. Authorities said that seven attackers blew themselves up, while the eighth was killed by police.

Speaking early Saturday, Hollande pointed the finger at ISIS for orchestrating the "cowardly" attacks which he described as an "act of war committed by a terrorist army" and organized from abroad. He said France remained "unbreakable," calling for "unity and courage."

Hollande added: "We will work alongside our allies to fight this terrorist menace ... France is strong and even if she is wounded she will get up always and nothing will hold her down, even if we are feeling the grief now ... We will defend ourselves."

Earlier, Hollande vowed to be "merciless" with the nation's foes.

A statement issued by ISIS later claimed responsibility for the attacks. ISIS has previously threatened France due to its military operations against the group in Syria and Iraq.

The violence came less than a year after deadly attacks on satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a kosher supermarket drove home the threat of Islamist terrorism here.

"This time it's war," pronounced Saturday's front page of Le Parisien newspaper. "War in the middle of Paris" echoed Le Figaro.

All museums, schools and libraries in Paris were ordered closed Saturday as investigators searched for clues following the bloodshed. The Disneyland theme park near the city was also shut.

The Bataclan concert hall in the lively 11th arrondissement was the scene of the night's worst carnage. At least 100 died there, according to the AP, when gunmen opened fire during a sell-out concert by American band Eagles of Death Metal.

[...]

Lot's more information in the report.

2:25 AM EST, Sat. Nov 14

This AP report counts six sites of attack, Bloomberg (see below) counts seven. 
Hollande was in the stadium when it came under attack -- he was evacuated safely. My understanding is that he won't be attending the G-20 Summit this weekend in Turkey.  

120 dead in Paris attacks, worst since WWII

By LORI HINNANT and GREG KELLER, ASSOCIATED PRESS
PARIS — Nov 14, 2015, 1:22 AM ET
PARIS (AP) -- A series of attacks targeting young concert-goers, soccer fans and Parisians enjoying a Friday night out at popular nightspots killed at least 120 people in the deadliest violence to strike France since World War II. President Francois Hollande condemned it as terrorism and pledged that France would stand firm against its foes.

The worst carnage was at a concert hall hosting an American rock band, where scores of people were held hostage and attackers ended the standoff by detonating explosive belts. Police who stormed the building encountered a bloody scene of horror inside.

When the attacks were over, eight attackers were dead - seven of them in suicide explosions, one killed by security forces in the music venue, Paris prosecutor's spokeswoman Agnes Thibault-Lecuivre told The Associated Press.

[...]

Lots more information in the report

*****

2:00 AM EST, Sat. Nov 14
Here is the podcast to John Batchelor's discussion last night with Seb Gorka, Bill Roggio, and Tom Joscelyn about the swarm attack in Paris. As I noted in the first post on the attack (see earliest entry below) these experts on terrorism/ counterterrorism were aware they were working with data from a fast-changing story. But their observations are still valuable.

*****     

1:50 AM EST, Saturday, Nov 14
Seven sites were struck simultaneously.  Here, from a Bloomberg report filed at 12:58 AM EST, November 14, by Mark Deen and Edward Johnson (report below), is a map of the sites, which of course supersedes the one VOX supplied yesterday evening:

Complexity of Paris Attacks Carries Hallmarks of Trained Fighters
Bloomberg:

The coordinated attacks that killed at least 120 people in Paris on Friday carry the hallmarks of trained fighters -- and a guiding hand.

The strikes occurred almost simultaneously in seven separate venues across the French capital and were designed to maximize casualties and signal combat experience. Even if the perpetrators weren’t practiced combatants, they were likely organized by people who are, analysts said.

"For terrorists to inflict such a large amount of damage they must have been trained very well,” said Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of Cornerstone Global Associates, which advises clients on risk in the Middle East.

The equipment, the timing and coordination show that “it’s not a layman and it’s not a lone attacker,” Nuseibeh said by phone from Dubai.

No group has made credible claims of responsibility and the French government has yet to say whether it has identified the perpetrators.

French planes are bombing militants in Syria as part of a U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State and French President Francois Hollande announced on Nov. 5 that he ordered the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to deploy to support the strikes. The group will be among those initially focused on by investigators, analysts said.

“The degree of complexity and the timing all point to the Islamic State,” said Rodger Shanahan, a Middle East security specialist at the Australian National University’s National Security College. The attacks “took a fair degree of planning and central direction.”

[...]

10:50 PM ET

From RT's live-blogging on the incident, there must have been more than 5 attackers if eyewitnesses quoted are correct:

[...]
People who managed to flee the theater reported seeing between six and eight shooters inside were killing those who remained in the concert hall “one by one”.

Once the Paris police decided to storm the Bataclan theater, where four terrorists were holding dozens of people hostage, the assailants decided to detonate the suicide belts they were wearing, according to local media reports, who added that over 110 people died as a result of the siege.

[...]

Three of the attackers were killed after letting off their explosive devices, while the fourth died after being shot by police. The exact number of hostages killed is still unknown. The Le Parisien newspaper claims over 100 people died, with at least a dozen suffering injuries.

The exact number of those held hostage is also unknown. Dozens of people who were evacuated from the theater have been rushed to hospitals. Both witnesses and police sources described the scene as “real carnage,” with dead bodies all over place.

One of the gunmen at Bataclan reportedly shouted: "It's for Syria" and "Allahu Akbar!" meaning,“God is [the] greatest” in Arabic.

It still remains unclear how the situation developed inside the concert hall. According to witnesses, the attackers stormed the venue as a California rock group ‘Eagles of Death Metal’ was performing on the stage.

A Europe 1 journalist, who was inside the Bataclan, said the men were unmasked and carried what he recognized as Kalashnikov-type guns.

“The assailants had time to reload at least three times. They were not masked, masters of themselves. They were very young," the reporter Julian Pearce said, according to the Liberation newspaper.

[...]

At 6:45 PM ET VOX published a map of sites where confirmed reports of bombings and shootings took place in Paris.

10:25 PM ET
The Guardian is one of the news sites live-blogging the aftermath of the assault. Here's their latest headline:  All attackers dead, police say, after shootings and explosions kill at least 150 in Paris – live updates. From the report it seems there were five attackers but police are looking for possible accomplices.  

*****

As of now, U.S. authorities don't know who is responsible, but it was only a matter of time before the very sophisticated Mumbai model was successfully used in another major city. Will this end the era of tolerance in the EU?  Thomas Joscelyn at Long War Journal in his first report on the assault on Paris also mentioned that it was similar to the Mumbai attack.  

And Tom, along with Bill Roggio and Sebastian Gorka made astute observations about the Paris assault during the first segment of John Batchelor's Show tonight.  The podcast isn't posted up yet but will add it to this post when it is. They see the attack as a massive intelligence failure, given what seems to have been a pretty large number of people who carried out the attack. 

John warned, as he always does, that in war the first three reports are wrong. From the report below, five of the attackers are dead as of the time it was filed. 

But I can tell you one thing with certainty at this early stage: the swarm model of attack is a very powerful and sophisticated force multipler. I will be putting up a post on the swarm model shortly.          

"Les terroristes capables de telles atrocités doivent savoir qu'il auront face à eux une France déterminée et unie" -- Élysée Palace

Paris Attacks: At Least 120 Dead After 'Terrorists' Stage Multiple Attacks and Take Hostages
By EMILY SHAPIRO

Nov 13, 2015 - 8:40 PM ET

ABC News 

At least 120 are dead in a series of six attacks in Paris -- including shootings, explosions and a hostage situation at a concert hall -- in a night of carnage France said was carried out by "terrorists."

Five attackers are dead, according to a Paris prosecutor, and the hostage situation at the theater, Bataclan concert hall, was over.

In the wake of the attacks, French President Francois Hollande said he was locking down the borders of the country and declaring a state of emergency. Hollande called the attacks "unprecedented" and President Obama called them an attack "on all of humanity."

Hollande said, according to ITELE, "When terrorists are capable of doing such horrible things, there will be a France determined, a united France and a France who will not allow itself to cave even if today it expresses a deep sorrow in the face of this tragedy which is an abomination because these are barbaric acts."

In a tweet, the Elysee Palace said: "terrorists capable of such atrocities should know that they will face a determined and united France."

The attacks took place at the theater, the Stade de France soccer stadium, a restaurant in the 10th District and another location in the 11th District.

Police in Paris were recommending that residents avoid going out unless absolutely necessary and the subway system was shut down. Primary schools, high schools and all educational buildings will be closed Saturday around Paris, French authorities said.

The Department of Homeland Security said it is closely monitoring the events in Paris said there was no specific or credible threat to the United States. DHS said it's in contact with its counterparts in the area and "will not hesitate to adjust our security posture, as appropriate, to protect the American people."

Eagles of Death Metal, an American rock band that was performing at Bataclan tonight, said in a statement, "We are still currently trying to determine the safety and whereabouts of all our band and crew. Our thoughts are with all of the people involved in this tragic situation."

The explosions took place near the Stade de France stadium, one of the sources said, where Germany was playing France in soccer. Hollande was at the game at the time and was evacuated.

One witness, Margot Schmorak, told ABC News via Skype that one of the attacks "was around the corner from us, about a half a block down."

Schmorak and three colleagues "were sitting outside on sidewalk ... we heard a bunch of gun shots. Maybe 8 to 10, and then there was kind of a pause, and there was a few more."

"We actually said to each other, 'Is that gunshots or is it firecrackers or something else?' And then one of my friends actually said, 'I think it's gunshots.' And we saw people running from around the corner," she said.

Another witness, Emilioi Macchio, was at a bar when he heard gunshots, according to the Associated Press.

"It sounded like fireworks," Macchio said, the AP reported.

Secretary of State John Kerry called the attacks "heinous, evil, vile acts."

"Those of us who can must do everything in our power to fight back against what can only be considered an assault on our common humanity," said Kerry.

"Our embassy in Paris is making every effort to account for the welfare of American citizens in the city, and in the days ahead we stand ready to provide whatever support the French government may require. France is our oldest ally, a friend and a vital partner," Kerry's statement said. "We stand with the French people tonight, as our peoples have always stood together in our darkest hours.  These terrorist attacks will only deepen our shared resolve."

Gérard Araud, the French ambassador to the U.S., said he was devastated by the carnage.

President Obama said from the White House today that, while the details of the attacks in France are unknown, the U.S. stands together with France "in the fight against terrorism and extremism."

Obama called France an "extraordinary counter-terrorism partner."

"Paris itself represents the timeless values of human progress," Obama said, adding that the "American people draw strength from the French people's commitment to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness."

A federal law enforcement source said the FBI set up a “command post” to help monitor and respond to the attacks. The FBI is actively trying to help French authorities, but as of now, U.S. authorities do not know who is responsible.

The Associated Press contributed to this report

[END REPORT]

********

The Battle of Sinjar

"The U.S. expectation is that it would take two to four days to secure Sinjar and another week to finalize clearing operations, a U.S. military official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. U.S. military advisers are with Kurdish commanders near Sinjar mountain but are positioned well back from the fighting, a U.S. military spokesman said. ... The U.S. military estimated that 60 to 70 Islamic State fighters had been killed in U.S.-led coalition air strikes so far on Thursday."
I say with cyncism that I suspect the US has now stepped up its game against Islamic State so Kerry won't have to walk into the Viennta summit this weekend with his head under a basket. 

And the Reuters correspondent reporting on the action in Sinjar (see below) notes that "Russia's recent interventions - air strikes against opponents of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria and intelligence sharing with Baghdad - have raised concerns in Washington that its former Cold War foe is gaining influence in the Middle East."  

As we all know, it's always more important to establish who's the big cheese than trounce the enemy, unless you absolutely must; of course just before a summit is one of those musts.  

Well, by any which way is a fire lit. 

There are two Reuters reports on the Battle of Sinjar that were filed within a minute of each other by Isabel Cole. The 5:18 PM ET report is titled Update 9 - Kurds expect to enter and clear Sinjar soon but I'm going with the one timestamped 5:19 PM ET and titled simply Kurds expect to enter and clear Sinjar soon. (I get the feeling Isabel's editor kept emailing her and saying, 'Deep breaths.')

NEAR SINJAR TOWN, IRAQ | BY ISABEL COLES

Kurdish forces who have launched an offensive to retake Sinjar from Islamic State militants expect to enter and clear the northern Iraqi town soon, the Kurdistan regional security council said on Thursday.

More than 150 square km (58 square miles) have been seized from the ultrahardline Sunni group and dozens of bodies of its fighters were left behind in a retreat from parts of Sinjar, it added.

Reuters could not independently confirm this account but Kurdish commanders near the frontline seemed confident and morale among fighters was high.

Backed by U.S.-led coalition air strikes, Kurdish peshmerga fighters reached Sinjar from the east and west, the council said.

The Kurds launched the operation in the early morning designed to cordon off Sinjar, take control of strategic routes and establish a buffer zone to protect the town from artillery.

A victory in Sinjar could give the Kurds, government forces and Shi'ite militias critical momentum in efforts to defeat Islamic State, which controls large areas of Iraq and Syria and has affiliates in Libya and Egypt.

The group, made up of Iraqis and other Arabs as well as foreign fighters, poses the biggest security threat to OPEC oil producer Iraq since a U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003.

So far the Kurds have captured several villages and taken up positions along Highway 47, a supply route between Raqqa in Syria and the Iraqi city of Mosul, the main Islamic State bastions.

"The ground assault began in the early morning hours of Nov. 12, when peshmerga units successfully established blocking positions along Highway 47 and began clearing Sinjar," said the coalition in a statement.

"The peshmerga will continue operations to re-establish government control over key portions of the areas."

Islamic State, suspected by Western intelligence officials of playing a role in the crash of a Russian passenger plane in Egypt two weeks ago, overran Sinjar more than a year ago.

Islamic State's killing and enslaving of thousands of its Yazidi residents focused international attention on the group's violent campaign to impose its radical ideology and prompted Washington to launch its air offensive.

The U.S. expectation is that it would take two to four days to secure Sinjar and another week to finalize clearing operations, a U.S. military official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

U.S. military advisers are with Kurdish commanders near Sinjar mountain but are positioned well back from the fighting, a U.S. military spokesman said.

U.S. Army Colonel Steve Warren told Reuters some U.S. advisers were also on Sinjar mountain working with the Kurdish peshmerga forces to advise and assist with the development of targets for air strikes.

The U.S. military estimated that 60 to 70 Islamic State fighters had been killed in U.S.-led coalition air strikes so far on Thursday, said Warren, a Baghdad-based spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition effort against Islamic State.

Islamic State uses Highway 47 to transport weapons, fighters and illicit commodities to fund its operations, said the coalition, which conducted more than 250 air strikes in the past month across northern Iraq.

Russia's recent interventions - air strikes against opponents of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria and intelligence sharing with Baghdad - have raised concerns in Washington that its former Cold War foe is gaining influence in the Middle East.

U.S.-led coalition air strikes pounded Islamic State-held areas in the town overnight, as around 7,500 Kurdish special forces, peshmerga and Yazidi fighters descended from the Sinjar mountain towards the front line in a military convoy.

"It is going according to plan. We are optimistic and we consider today like a celebration," said Sinjar district mayor Mahma Xelil.

Kurdish forces and the U.S. military said the number of Islamic State fighters in the town had increased to nearly 600 after reinforcements arrived in the run-up to the offensive.

The offensive is being overseen by Kurdistan regional president Massoud Barzani, who is also head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which other groups in the area accuse of seeking to monopolize power.

Many Yazidis lost faith in the KDP when its forces failed to protect them from Islamic State militants, who consider them devil worshippers, when the group attacked Sinjar in August 2014, systematically slaughtering, enslaving and raping thousands of Yazidis.

A Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) came to the rescue, evacuating thousands of Yazidis stranded on Sinjar mountain and establishing a permanent base there.

Near the front lines on Thursday, a Kurdish officer stood behind a wall of sandbags. Sinjar, about 300 meters (1,000 feet)away, could be seen through a gap in a rampart.

Kurdish officers said an Islamic State sniper had taken up position in the town. Coordinates were passed to a joint operations room and within five minutes the position was bombed.

Islamic State militants could be heard communicating in Arabic and Turkmen in intercepted walkie-talkie chatter.

"Where are you," asked one. "Praise be to God," said another. One fighter noted that a car used by his comrades had been destroyed.

Loqman Ibrahim, head of the eight battalion, made up of Yazidis and under peshmerga command, said he heard militants urging each other to fight to the death and that an order was given not to withdraw.

Most Yazidis have been displaced to camps in the Kurdistan region; several thousand remain in Islamic State captivity.

LAND AND HONOR

For Yazidi forces taking part, the battle is very much about retribution.

Hussein Derbo, the head of a peshmerga battalion made up of 440 Yazidis, said the men under his command could have migrated to Europe but chose to stay and fight.

"It is our land and our honor. They (Islamic State) stole our dignity. We want to get it back," he told Reuters in a village on the northern outskirts of Sinjar town.

Derbo's brother, Farman, echoed the sentiment, saying he hoped the militants would not retreat so the Yazidis could kill them all.

The forces, many wearing the thick moustache typical of Yazidis and carrying light weapons, had gathered at a staging position overnight.

They traveled in a peshmerga convoy comprised of Humvees on flatbed trucks, heavy artillery, and fighters waving Kurdish flags, flashing peace signs and brandishing their rifles.

Hundreds of vehicles wound slowly downhill along the same road Yazidis had fled up last summer seeking safety from Islamic State. Abandoned cars and blood-stained clothing were reminders of those chaotic scenes.

Around dawn, the fighters piled into their vehicles and headed to the front.

Authorizing the first strikes against Islamic State in August 2014, U.S. President Barack Obama cited a duty to prevent a genocide of Yazidis by the radical Islamists.

In December 2014, Kurdish forces drove Islamic State from north of Sinjar mountain, a craggy strip about 60 km (40 miles) long, but Islamic State maintained control of the southern side where the town is located.

(Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by James Dalgleish)

[END REPORT]

********

Beirut bombings: Islamic State, on the ropes in Syria, lashes out to punish Hezbollah

There was a third bomber but the little demon was killed by one of the other suicide explosions before he could detonate his own bomb. Heh.
   
Two suicide bombers hit Hezbollah bastion in Lebanon, 43 killed
By MARIAM KAROUNY and LAILA BASSAM in Beirut
Nov 12, 2015 4:26pm EST
Reuters

This tells me Hezbollah forces have been doing serious damage to IS in Syria -- more serious than has been revealed in press reports. 

The attack on civiliians in Beirut is an awful tragedy, but I seem to recall that many moons ago the Iranians pioneered or at least perfected car bombs to drive Israel out of Beirut. 

Truly, the "Monkey See Monkey Do" rule is supreme in human affairs: If you can do it, why can't I?  

From the Reuters report:

At least 43 people were killed and more than 240 wounded on Thursday in two suicide bomb blasts claimed by Islamic State in a crowded residential district in Beirut's southern suburbs, a stronghold of the Shi'ite Muslim group Hezbollah.

The explosions were the first attacks in more than a year to target a Hezbollah stronghold inside Lebanon, and came at time when the group is stepping up its involvement in the Syrian civil war -- a fight which has brought Sunni Islamist threats and invective against the Iran-backed Shi'ite group.

Hezbollah has sent hundreds of fighters to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces in the four-year-old conflict over the border. Government forces backed by Hezbollah and Iranian troops have intensified their fight against mostly Sunni insurgents, including Islamic State, since Russia launched an air campaign in support of Assad on Sept. 30.

Syria's civil war is increasingly playing out as a proxy battle between regional rivals, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, which supports the rebels. The two foes also back opposing political forces in Lebanon, which suffered its own civil war from 1975 to 1990, and where a political crisis has been brought about by factional and sectarian rivalries.

The blasts occurred almost simultaneously late on Thursday and struck a Shi'ite community center and a nearby bakery in the commercial and residential area of Borj al-Barajneh, security sources said. A closely guarded Hezbollah-run hospital is also nearby.
Health Minister Wael Abu Faour said 43 people were killed and 240 people were wounded.

Islamic State said in a statement posted online by its supporters that its members blew up a bike loaded with explosives in Borj al-Barajneh and that when onlookers gathered, a suicide bomber blew himself up among them. The group said the attacks killed 40 people.

Hezbollah vowed to continue its fight against "terrorists", warning of a "long war" against its enemies.

Medics rushed to treat the wounded after the explosions, which damaged shop fronts and left the street stained with blood and littered with broken glass.

Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk said a third suicide bomber had been killed by one of the explosions before he could detonate his own bomb. His body was found nearby.

It was a blow to Hezbollah's tight security measures in the area, which were strengthened following bombings last year. The army had also set up checkpoints around the southern suburb entrances.

'UNJUSTIFIABLE ATTACKS'

A series of bomb blasts struck Lebanon in 2013 and 2014, including attacks on Hezbollah strongholds. Most of them were claimed by Sunni militants in response to Hezbollah sending fighters to Syria to fight in support of Assad.

Hezbollah's involvement has brought many threats against it in Lebanon.

Security forces say they have foiled a number of attacks inside the country recently and dismantled terror cells. A security source said a man wearing a suicide vest was arrested in Tripoli on Thursday, and a bomb dismantled in the northern city.

[...]

Plenty more in the report.

********

Kurd and Yazidi forces, backed by U.S. air power, try to take Sinjar town from Islamic State

Why am I seeing details about this operation while it's still underway? [shaking her head]  Pundita, just let it go. 

Here's a combined report from Associated Press, Reuters, and NBC News, filed at 12:12am ET today. There are probably more recent ones out there. Over and out for the day. Maybe for the rest of the year. All right, let it go. It's possible they're feeding phony details. 

But that would require putting thinking over PR. Pundita. Stop it. Just stop it. Now wish them well. 

I hope and pray the operation is a smashing success.         

********

 

"Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there"

Valery Sharifulin/TASS

The soldier is holding the flag of the Syrian Arab Republic. He isn't named, but the photograph is featured in a Nov 9 TASS report, Syrian general: More than 50 IS terrorists killed in fighting near air base in Deir ez-Zor, which is still under siege. From True Heroes: Syrian Pilots Compete With Each Other for Missions; Nov 12, Sputnik:

Hama is one of 15 military airbases in Syria. Five of those are in the hands of militants. One more base, Deir ez-Zor, is operational but it has been besieged for three years. The Kowaires military airbase near Aleppo is a scene of fierce fighting between militants and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).  Earlier this week, Damascus-led forces managed to free it.

The Kowaires base was freed with help from the Russian air force -- and opposition fighters, who provided the Syrian Army with key intel on the terrorists' positions.  Several opposition groups are now helping the army, providing coordinates and intel on the exact locations of the terror groups. The opposition groups -- ones that are actually Syrian -- are starting to learn the truth about the foreigners who pretended to be helping their nation.

The United States and the European Union (EU) tried to portray the Syrian conflict as a sectarian conflict; however, it isn't the case at all. The real situation on the ground shows that the overwhelming majority of Syrians support President Assad and prefer his regime over any other alternatives that the West offered.

The quote is from Sputnik's November 11 report, The Tables are Turning: Syrian Army Pushes ISIL Out of Key Areas.  It was an Iranian analyst who spoke, but all polls taken over the years, including one by Qatar's government, show that a majority of Syrians support their government. More to the point, they support the concept of nationhood. 

The United States, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, aided and abetted by the European Union, tried to turn the Syrians into a collection of tribes. But as you can see, the flag of the republic is still there. 
           

The words in the title of this post are from the American national anthem, The Star Spangled Banner:

The lyrics come from [the first stanza] of "Defence of Fort M'Henry", a poem written in 1814 by the 35-year-old lawyer and amateur poet Francis Scott Key after witnessing the bombardment of Fort McHenry by British ships of the Royal Navy in Baltimore Harbor during the Battle of Fort McHenry in the War of 1812. (Wikipedia)

O say can you see, by the dawn's early light,

What so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming,

Whose broad stripes and bright stars through the perilous fight,

O'er the ramparts we watched, were so gallantly streaming?

And the rockets' red glare, the bombs bursting in air,

Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there;

O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave

O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?

The Syrians have a way to go before they can enjoy the kind of freedoms Americans do, but there is nothing like a fight for their lives to make people appreciate their nation. And there is a profound and unique connection between the nations of Syria and the United States: an engraving on a Roman temple in Palmyra was the inspiration for the Great Seal of the United States of America.

********

Congress, NATO, White House abroad together: Chaos, Carnage, Calamity

There is a moment during John Batchelor's Tuesday night conversation with Stephen F. Cohen where it sounds as if he's just realized he's wandered into a Batman movie. It's toward the end, after they've zipped through Ukraine, Syria, and the crashed Russian airliner in Sinai and turned to NATO's huge and very realistic war exercises on Russia's border. Those to prepare for Russia's looming invasion of the Baltic countries, there being absolutely no looming invasion and what's more everyone in Europe knows you couldn't pay Russia enough to invade.

John starts talking about how dangerous these very realistic NATO exercises are -- how easily a mistake could happen. He goes to Cold War history and tells Steve about the time there was a NATO war game so realistic the Soviets believed it was the real thing. We came this close to nuclear war, this close do you understand? 

Yeah, Steve understood and John knew he understood. But you know how it is. When you find yourself in a Batman movie you want to turn to someone and say, 'This isn't real; right?' 

But my favorite Batman moment was in the discussion about Ukraine, beginning around the 5:15 minute mark in the podcast. It turns out Ukrainians never wanted to join the European Union anyhow on account of they can't stand homosexuals. In fact, they famously hate homosexuals. Yet to belong to the EU all your workplaces must accept gays and transgenders and whatever as employees. That too is famously known -- known in Europe.

Now here you might ask: Then what was all the murder and mayhem about? Snipers in Maidan Square? The putsch the White House worked so hard to engineer? NATO standing up to Russia to defend Ukraine's right to join the European Union? 

Why so serious? The Ukrainians are getting off easier than Libyans and Syrians. It's not easy putting together a foreign policy that works. Sometimes you have to go back to the drawing board several times. Just wipe off the blood and get a fresh sheet of paper.

How far is NATO willing to go? How far is Obama willing? The 'Get Russia' crowd in Congress? 

Here is where reality crashes in on the movie set. The thousands of migrants in the Calais "Jungle" are escalating -- kind of a mini-intifada against the nasty police who won't let them into the Chunnel. They've started throwing rocks and stones at the police, going into yards of people who live in the neighborhood, helping themselves to anything they can use to block the roads.

The major EU governments know there is one thing, and one thing only, which stands between them and a full-on invasion by half the world's terrorists: the Russian government. 

The people in the American government and NATO who are playing Tactical Nuclear War Chicken with Russia actually comprise a pretty small group, as do Get Russia counterparts in Europe.

So in a perfect world they're not going to start a war. But mistakes can happen when militaries fool around that close to a danger zone.  
  
********

Diwali and American Veterans Day fall on the same day this year -- today

Diwali, the festival of lights, is rooted in diyas, the oil lamps Indian villagers set out to light the path for the Avatar Rama and his wife and brother on their return from an epic battle that vanquished the demon King Ravana and his army. 

The lunar festival celebrates the triumph of good over evil, the banishing of darkness.
  
Veterans Day, which always falls on November 11, honors all veterans of the American armed forces. The more somber Memorial Day is reserved for Americans in the military who died in the service of their country. 

The struggle against evil is never-ending but there are cyclic moments in time -- All Saints Day on November 1 in the Catholic calendar, Diwali and Veterans Day among them -- when we can join with others to honor those who do special battle against a darkness that can overtake the human heart.

Happy Veterans Day. Happy Diwali. May your path always be brightly lit no matter how dark the night.

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"ISIS is not looking for a few good men; one crazy will do." When is an attack terrorism?

As readers know I'm against publicizing 'random' killings on the proven theory that the killers design their attacks with publicity in mind. But I think the quote I feature in the title and the report it's from to be worth study. The report, ISIS flag, radical manifesto raise questions about Calif. campus stabber's motive, by Malia Zimmerman and Hollie McKay at Fox News (November 10) wades into the long debate about when a murderous attack can be considered a terrorist act:

The California college student who stabbed four people last week was carrying an image of the black flag of ISIS according to a report Tuesday, as well as a handwritten manifesto with instructions to behead a student and multiple reminders to pray to Allah, yet authorities continued to insist Faisal Mohammad's motives had nothing to do with radical Islam.

The 18-year-old, who was killed by a campus police officer to end the Wednesday morning attack, was a loner who was incensed at being booted from a study group, according to Merced County Sheriff Vern Warnke. But the extreme way Mohammad dealt with his rage, the presence of the printout of Islamic State's black flag and the deadly plans spelled out in the two-page document he carried could indicate there was more to the attack than simple rejection.

"This fits exactly with what ISIS is looking for, individuals to go and do an act of terrorism unilaterally," said Patrick Dunleavy, former deputy inspector general of the New York State Police Criminal Intelligence Unit and author of the 2011 book The Fertile Soil of Jihad: Terrorism’s Prison Connection.

"The fact that he may have been kicked out of a study group does not preclude this being a lone wolf act. It only needs some sort of trigger, which could be totally unrelated to Islam, that causes him to act on his rage and attribute it to Allah."

Dunleavy likened it to the case of Alton Nolen, who allegedly beheaded a former co-worker at a food plant in Oklahoma City in 2014. While he was angry over a workplace issue, his actions were likely the result of radicalization, said Dunleavy.

"ISIS is not looking for a few good men; one crazy will do," Dunleavy said. "This is what a lone wolf looks like."

The printout of the ISIS flag was reported Tuesday by the Merced Sun-Star, citing a law enforcement official who spoke on condition of anonymity on Monday. The official also said Mohammad’s manner of dress during the attack and some of the websites he may have visited in the days leading up to the incident ultimately led local authorities to hand control of the investigation over to the FBI.

Warnke confirmed that decision, saying “new information” had been discovered on Saturday about Mohammad, who was shot and killed by police during the episode.

“I met with the FBI Saturday night and turned over copies of all evidence we’ve collected to that agency and the UC Merced police department,” said Warnke. “As far as any further investigation into any outside influence, the FBI will be handling that from now on.”

[...]

Lots more in the report.

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Don't look now but all hell has broken loose in Syria

So far only the chirping of crickets from SOHR, but the news is already out there: From RT, today: 23 killed, 65 injured by shelling in Latakia city, Syria – reports

Those were civilians who were shelled. And from the report it looks as if the mortars were aimed at students. 

I can just hear Zawahiri. Those stupid idiots shooting off their mouths about taking down a Russian civilian airliner and now look; who told Nusra to make a big show of attacking civilians? 

I can also hear Clapper: Get on the horn to every press outlet, every satellite news channel, in Europe, UK, and Middle East; I want to see it in headlines: Nusra hasn't been an American asset for months.

      

Here's the RT report; see the website for videos of the shelling aftermaths. Note the very last sentence in the report. I don't know whether Dr Ibrahim's claim about the Free Syrian Army is true but clearly the rumor is out there in Syria:

Published time: 10 Nov, 2015 13:32

Edited time: 10 Nov, 2015 20:40

At least 23 people have been killed by shelling in the Syrian city of Latakia. Another 65 were injured, RIA Novosti reported citing a source in local police.

“Twenty-three people have been killed and at least 65 hospitalized with injuries of varying degrees,” the police source said.

RT’s Lizzie Phelan reports from Syria that the attack took place in a very densely-populated part of Latakia.

“All of the reports so far are suggesting that all of those killed and injured are civilians,” she said.

The missiles that struck the city were most likely fired from Grad multiple-launch rocket system, Phelan added.

“Initial reports suggest that the attack was carried out by the Al-Qaeda branch, Al-Nusra Front,” RT's reporter said.

There are conflicting reports on the number of casualties coming from the port city of Latakia at the moment.

Meanwhile AFP cites Syrian state TV as saying there were "22 people killed and 62 wounded" in the attack on eastern neighborhoods of Latakia.

Earlier state news agency SANA reported 12 people died and 57 were injured when two mortar rounds struck residential areas.

One shell reportedly fell near the city's Tishreen university and another hit a bus stop.

Other reports said that two mortars hit near the university, another claimed that one of the mortars hit near a girls’ high school.

Latakia has been largely spared from violence during the four-and-a-half years of the Syrian civil war. A car bombing killing 10 people in September in Hamam Square were a rare occurrence.

The city is known as a stronghold of the Alawite religious group, to which President Bashar Assad belongs.

The Khmeimim airbase, which Russia uses to launch airstrikes against terrorist targets in Syria, is located outside Latakia city.

The air campaign, staged on the request of President Assad, saw dozens of sorties carried out by Russia planes on a daily basis since September 30.

The Russian Defense Ministry has spoken of panic and desertion amongst Islamic State, Al-Nusra Front members and other jihadist groups, who have seen hundreds of their facilities bombed and [razed] to the ground.

“There’s a possibility, of course,” that Jabhat al-Nusra (Al-Nusra Front) carried out the Latakia attack, Catherine Shakdam from the Shafaqna Institute of Middle Eastern Studies in London told RT.

The systematic targeting of terrorists’ bases has damaged their ability to carry out attacks,"therefore, they’re trying to retaliate,” she explained.

According to Shakdam, “radicals” targeted the Alawites as they’re now “going after Assad’s political support system.”

Political analyst Taleb Ibrahim, told RT that it’s almost certain that Al-Nusra Front is behind the shelling of Latakia.

“It’s not the first time Al-Nusra Front is bombing Latakia or launching missiles at civilians in that city. Moreover, Al-Nusra Front tried to make a lot of explosions by cars inside this city,” he said.

According to the analyst, Al-Nusra Front is the second largest group currently fighting the Syrian government.

It has less manpower than Islamic State, but its troops are much better trained, having experience of fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries, he added.

Dr. Ibrahim also said that the US claims of training so-called moderate rebels in Syria are “only a fable.”

“There are no moderates” is Syria, he stressed, adding that even the Western-backed Free Syrian Army is nothing but “a military arm of the Muslim Brotherhood,” an Egyptian Islamist organization. 

[END REPORT]

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Now that's thinking

From Alice & Shelby's latest roundup of drought news for the Los Angeles Times "Water and Power" newsletter:

Restoring groundwater: In Central California, water officials are preparing underground systems for what could be the bounty of water that accompanies El Niño. It’s a way to replenish groundwater systems that have been depleted by the drought. “A confluence of factors is focusing attention on stowing supplies underground, which is generally cheaper and less environmentally damaging than building a big dam and reservoir.”

Bravo! 

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"Syrian forces break 2-year ISIS siege on air base:" Gee. a US news report on Syria that doesn't quote SOHR

What's the world of American reporting coming to? Next Associated Press will be digging into the famous "250,000 Syrians killed" statistic. From there, who knows? Maybe ringing up Seffy Bodansky and Seymour Hersh to ask about wild clams it wasn't the Syrian military that launched chemical weapons attacks on Syrian civilians. Then anything is possible, including investigating whether Syria's strife is actually a "civil war."

[flipping a pen in the air] All right, Pundita. Be nice.     
 
Associated Press/CBS News
November 10, 2015, 12:53 PM

DAMASCUS, Syria -- Syrian government forces on Tuesday broke a siege imposed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on a northern military air base since 2013, marking the first major achievement by President Bashar Assad's troops since Russia began its airstrikes in late September, state media said.

A state TV report said government forces have met with troops that were defending the Kweiras air base in the northern province of Aleppo. Syrian troops, backed by pro-government gunmen, launched a large-scale offensive to reach the base last month under the cover of Russian airstrikes.

ISIS has been besieging the base since 2013 when they defeated rival militant groups who had already been surrounding the base for a year.

"We are inside the air base," a Syrian soldier that took part in the offensive told state TV Tuesday evening. "We have met our friends and the situation is good."

Tuesday's push is a major victory for the government against ISIS -- which controls nearly half of Syria. Syrian troops tried in the past to reach the air base with no luck but Russian airstrikes appear to have helped in forcing ISIS from the area.

ISIS fighters had been besieging the nearly 1,000 soldiers inside the base since 2013, but the forces there have managed to hold on despite repeated attacks using multiple suicide bombings.

Another officer speaking from the base told state TV "with the liberation of Kweiras, we will liberate other areas."

The forces held on to the base for two years, apparently knowing that their fate would be death if they were captured.

Last year, ISIS killed more than 160 Syrian government troops seized in a military base in the northern province of Raqqa. In a video released at the time, dozens of terrified young conscripts were made to run while stripped down to their underwear before being killed.

Earlier Tuesday, militants shelled the coastal Syrian city of Latakia, killing at least 16 and wounding 53, state media reported, in one of the deadliest attacks on the government stronghold in recent months.

State news agency SANA said the shells were fired by militants affiliated with al-Qaida's branch in Syria, known as the Nusra Front, and the ultraconservative Ahrar al-Sham group.

Syrian state TV said two shells hit an area near Tishrin University on Tuesday afternoon. TV footage showed at least one car on fire and several others, including a minibus, hit with shrapnel. Blood could be seen on the road.

Latakia has been spared the worst of Syria's civil war but has recently been shelled on several occasions.

The latest shelling came during an offensive by government forces in the mountains near the city under the cover of Russian airstrikes. Russian warplanes have been taking off from a military air base south of Latakia since Sept. 30, carrying out strikes around Syria.

Also Tuesday, residents in Syria's capital Damascus said rebels shelled several neighborhoods in the city. SANA said the shelling killed one person and wounded five.

Over 250,000 people have been killed in Syria since the civil war began and half the nation's pre-war population has been displaced since 2011.

[END REPORT]

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With Syria, Obama is following Rawalpindi's playbook in Afghanistan

The newest creative excuse from the Obama regime for funding terrorists and staging proxy war in Syria was explained in Adam Entous' November 4 report for The Wall Street Journal, U.S., Allies to Boost Aid to Syria Rebels:

U.S. officials said the Obama administration is pursuing what amounts to a dual-track strategy, which aims to maintain military pressure on Mr. Assad and his Russian and Iranian supporters while U.S. diplomats see if they can ease him from power through negotiations. U.S. officials said the pressure track was meant to complement the diplomatic track by giving the U.S. leverage at the negotiating table.

That is exactly the dual track Pakistan's military has been pursuing against Afghanistan's government. Rawalpindi also wants leverage at a negotiating table at which they know they don't belong. By orchestrating increased Taliban attacks in Afghanistan this past year, they want to put the government there in a more receptive mood to being ruled from Rawalpindi.

Will the Obama strategy work with Syria? The well-informed Sic Semper Tyrannis has been war-gaming the combat situation in Syria for the period 1 November - 2 February, 2016, then February 2016 and they're now up to June 2016. I'll add my two cents here to the war game.

The belief among Alawite Syrians that the United States is responsible for the unrest in Syria continues to spread among all Syrians. By the end of this year the United States accomplishes precisely what Pakistan's military did: Just as everything bad that happens in Afghanistan is blamed on Pakistan, by February a Syrian won't stub his toe without saying the Americans did this to me.

By June returned Syrian refugees will be holding rallies to praise Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian Army for their great victory, with a little help from the Russians, over the terrorists and their American backers.

The World Bank will start writing loans to Assad's government. Cuba will send brigades of agricultural experts into Syrian villages. The second wife of the previous Emir of Qatar will smash her mirror when it tells her that Asma al-Assad is still the fairest of them all.

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"Whoever gives them the most money gives them a new name"

RT's Murad Gazdiev travelled to the remote Syrian village of Ghmam, close to Hama, which had just been liberated from jihadists by Syrian troops. Their tanks are hidden to avoid the jihadists’ rockets, only 1km away in a nearby village.

The liberators are "Christian, Sunni and Shia" Syrians. They are fighting mostly foreigners -- Chechens and Afghans predominately -- who change their group name the way Imelda Marcos changed shoes. 

"Whoever gives them the most money gives them a new name," explained a volunteer.  

Murad said the Syrians fear the guided anti-tank missiles provided to the foreign mercenaries but are learning to adapt. "Now tanks sprint into position and pull back before they can be hit."

Murad didn't say it although he didn't need to; the edge the volunteers have is just that: these men aren't fighting for money; they are fighting for their homeland.  

Here's Murad's report:   

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Islamic State starts whining

Look at the pictures! Just see what those bad Russians are doing to our Caliphate! Bomb craters right in downtown Raqqa! Bridges shelled!  Buildings collapsing on our heads! Civilians killed shopping at our lovely open air market! 

Well, it looked like a weapons depot to the bombers. It can be hard to tell the difference between a pile of mortars and a pile of onions when you're that high up.  

No I'm not going to publish any of the photos they put on their website to accompany their whine fest, but Long War Journal has, while noting it can't verify where the photos were taken and whether the air strikes were from Russian or Syrian bombing raids. But as SANA and RT enumerated, the Russians (and the Syrian Army) are bombing all over Syria these days. From RT's report today:

"Over the last three days, Russian jets made 137 sorties in the Syrian Arab Republic and destroyed 448 facilities of terrorist infrastructure in the provinces of Aleppo, Damascus, Idlib, Latakia, Raqqa, Hama and Homs," Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Defense Ministry, was cited as saying by Tass.

The airmen are giving them no peace. Same with Syrian ground forces.

One result, as the Russian defense spokesman dryly noted: "We are registering a significant shift in terrorist tactics across Syria. The terrorist groups are operating less boldly than a month ago."

Less boldly is right. They're transporting their weapons under cover of darkness. Next they'll be climbing into burkas.

Meanwhile on the political front, the Algerian ambassador strongly reiterated his country's ringing support for Syria's government:

November 9: Damascus, SANA - Relations between Syria and Algeria are strong and firm due to the historic ties binding the two countries and their standing together in the face of terrorism, and their emphasis on the need for international cooperation to combat terrorism which is spreading in the region.

Algeria, which commemorated the 61st anniversary of the outbreak of 1 November 1954 Revolution against the French colonial rule, had declared since the beginning of the crisis its support for Syria and rejected all politicized decisions that tried to undermine its sovereignty.

In a statement to SANA, Algerian Ambassador in Damascus Saleh Bosha affirmed that Algeria’s stance towards Syria has been clear and firm since the beginning of the crisis, adding that Algeria had expressed its permanent support for the unity of Syria and its solidarity with the Syrian people in their ordeal.

The ambassador believed that the aim of what is happening in Syria is to weaken and discourage it from its national and pan-Arab stances.

Bosha said that his country had refused all resolutions issued by the Arab League to suspend Syria’s membership and rejected all politicized international resolutions which are aimed at undermining Syria’s sovereignty and independence.

He pointed out that the efforts exerted to combat terrorism are not enough, calling for more international cooperation in all sectors, expressing Algeria’s keenness to cooperate and coordinate with Syria in combating terrorism.

[...]

Boy oh boy, did Washington's Get Russia crowd step in a pile of merde when it set out to use Syria as a staging area for proxy war. 

The only thing I've ever heard Zbigniew Brzezinski say that I agree with was during his appearance on PBS Newshour to debate whether the U.S. should get involved in overthrowing Gaddafi. He said that the British and French are hated in that part of the world, so why would the United States want to be involved with them in Libya?

But of course the one time Brzezinski talked sense was the time nobody in Washington listened to him. And of course it wasn't the British ambassador who was assassinated in Libya. It wasn't the French ambassador. No no. It was the ambassador serving the most lame-brained foreign policy establishment this side of a Monty Python skit.

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Pax Saudiana: Bruce Riedel's primer on the men who run Al Saud

"MBN IS THE PUBLIC FACE OF REPRESSION IN THE KINGDOM. DISSIDENTS ACROSS THE GULF STATES ACCUSE HIM OF PROMOTING A “PAX SAUDIANA” AND TREATING ALL DISSENT IN THE KINGDOM AS TERRORISM."

Here is another bit of news from Bruce Riedel's primer, one that will strike terror in the hearts of all rational people everywhere: "Washington" loves Muhammad bin Nayef, a.k.a. MBN, the kingdom's new crown prince and heir. He's their very favorite Saudi prince. Why so? Because he's tough on terrorists.

This is the stuff of a Monty Python skit. The Saudis have invented a kind of perpetual motion machine: They blow USD billions to promote Wahhabism all over the world, then they blow USD billions to fight just the kind of terrorism that Wahhabism spawns all over the world. Then they get invited to parties in Washington for being a strong U.S. ally in the fight against terrorism.

Banana, anyone? I'm telling you, we're headed back to the trees.

Meanwhile The New York Times reported yesterday that as the U.S. prepares to intensify its air campaign against Islamic State its Arab allies have melted away:

"They’ve all been busy doing other things, Yemen being the primary draw,” Lt. Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., who leads the air war from a $60 million command center at this sprawling base in Qatar, said of the Arab allies.

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People of conscience, standing up to the foreign conspiracy to destroy Syria

It's all starting to come out now. More and more people are beginning to learn what actually happened.....

November 5, 2015
SANA News

(Damascus) The Arab-European delegation to support Syria arrived in Damascus on Wednesday. It includes 30 political, social, cultural and economic figures and journalists from France, Switzerland, Belgium, Italy, Algeria, Tunis, Turkey, Morocco and Iraq.

The Arab-European delegation to support Syria affirmed on Thursday solidarity with and support for the Syrian people and leadership who are facing a terrorist war.

During a meeting with the National Reconciliation and the Arab and Foreign Affairs’ committees at the people’s Assembly, the delegation hailed the legendary steadfastness of Syrians who foiled the conspiracy which aims at destabilizing Syria.

Jan Michael a French, a writer and member of the delegation said that the visit is meant to express solidarity with Syria in its battle against terrorism, criticizing the use of terrorism by some countries as a tool to achieve their own political goals.

“Syrian parliamentarians represent a real popular will , and are defending the same human values which the Belgian parliamentarians are advocating,” Laurens Louis, a former Belgian MP said.

In turn, Riad Seedawi the Director of the Geneva-based Arab Center for Political and Social Studies pointed out to the media disinformation practiced by some media outlets are distorting the reality of what is going on Syria, adding that the conspiracy against Syria has become clear and victory will be achieved soon.

Chairwoman of the Arab, Foreign Affairs Committee at the People’s Assembly Fadia Deeb said that international changes began to take their course towards adopting stances that support Syria’s position in combating terrorism.

Manar al-Frieh/Manal

[END REPORT]

Rainbow over Damascus and Lattakia on October 29, 2015

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When Médecins Sans Frontières couldn't lie enough about sheltering Taliban ...

They lied some more. Now they're in hot water.  That is one medical charity Afghanistan could do without. NATO should get off its butt and establish some medical trauma clinics, and there are plenty of other things NATO could do in the country without having to muster more troops. 

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