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Monday, April 17

Another top scientist backs up Postol's analysis of Syrian chemical incident

UPDATE 
See also my April 24 post, A neuropharmacologist debunks use of sarin in the Khan Shaykhun incident.  The evidence presented is staggering when one considers the number of governments and news organizations that have ignored the true symptoms of sarin poisoning.

END UPDATE

See Wikipedia's article about NJ.com to appreciate the website's influence in the newspaper world.

From NJ.com, Bad intelligence: Donald Trump attacked Syria based on a report full of holes; Paul Mulshine, April 16, 2017. 
[...]
The report is titled "Assessment of White House Intelligence Report of April 11, 2017" and it was authored by Theodore Postol, an MIT professor who is among the world's leading experts on chemical weaponry.
 In 14 pages, Postol demolishes the Trump administration's extended press release claiming proof that Syrian aircraft delivered that gas strike. Here's the key sentence:
"I have reviewed the document carefully, and I believe it can be shown, without doubt, that the document does not provide any evidence whatsoever that the U.S. government has concrete knowledge that the government of Syria was the source of the chemical attack in Khan Shaykhun, Syria at roughly 6 to 7 a.m. on April 4, 2017."
Postol writes that "the report contains absolutely no evidence that this attack was the result of a munition being dropped from an aircraft. In fact, the report contains absolutely no evidence that would indicate who was the perpetrator of this atrocity."
The central piece of evidence cited in the administration's report is what appears to be the remains of a rocket casing photographed in a crater on a street where the attack occurred. The rocket body showed evidence of an implosion from above rather than an explosion from within, he writes. (see video below)
The most likely explanation, he writes, is that the casing was placed in the crater and a bomb of some sort was detonated above it.
"The explosive placed on top of the pipe would cause it to be suddenly crushed up like a tube of toothpaste hit by a mallet," he writes.
"Just as the toothpaste would be sprayed out from the toothpaste tube, so will the sarin be sprayed from the metal tube."
Who could have placed that bomb there? Postol doesn't speculate. His specialty is explosions, not politics.
And he is among the most respected scientists in the field, said another highly respected scientist, Frank von Hippel of the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton.
Postol is no kooky conspiracy theorist, said von Hippel.
"He's very good technically," he told me. "Whatever he says has to be taken seriously."
After reading the report and emailing back and forth with Postol, von Hippel concluded that there was plenty of time for Trump to have a thorough investigation before launching a retaliatory strike.
"There have been calls for independent investigations by groups like the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons," he said. "It would be in the interests of the Syrians to let them have access."
Instead Trump took a "shoot first, ask questions later" stance.
One obvious question is why Syrian leader would do something this stupid just as the U.S. was getting ready to accept him as a partner in the fight against ISIS.
Trump's trigger-happy stance gives von Hippel nightmares when it comes to possible nuclear confrontations - literally.
"I had a nightmare about him the other night," he said. "He really does seem to be impaired in his inability to look at any issue in any kind of depth."
[...]
***
Plenty more observations in Mulshine's column, including a zinger from a former member of the Knesset:
Even worse, Trump did not even wait for the investigation. He ordered that attack after just three days - despite the fact that it occurred behind enemy lines in a place that could not be reached by investigators.
And he never for a second considered the obvious possibility that this was a false-flag operation.
Just a few days before, the U.S. had indicated a possible alliance with Syria against ISIS.
Why on Earth would Assad risk that to kill a handful of civilians with gas when he could just as easily have killed them with conventional bombs?
Here's an excellent examination of that possibility by Uri Avnery, a former member of the Israeli Knesset:
"The operation was an immense success. Overnight, the despised Trump became a national hero. Even liberals kissed his feet.
"But throughout, that question continued to nag my mind. Why did Assad do it? What did he have to gain?
"The simple answer is: Nothing. Absolutely nothing."
******** 

Sunday, April 16

Happy Easter from Charles Cameron and Bach



Et Resurrexit, from the Credo, Bach’s Mass in B Minor, performed by Akademie für Alte Musik Berlin under the baton of Daniel Reuss. Posted to YouTube.  

My profuse thanks to Charles Cameron, the poet / mystic / philosopher who graces Zenpundit, who found this glorious rendition of Bach's transporting work, and penned a wonderful meditation on faith to accompany it.

********

Easter 2017 in Syria


From SANA, April 16, 2017:

Damascus, SANA – Christian denominations in Syria on Sunday celebrated Easter by holding prayers and masses in churches and other places of worship.

In the Lady of Dormition Cathedral in Damascus, Melkite Greek Catholic Patriarch of Antioch and All East Gregory III Laham presided upon the Easter celebrations, delivering a sermon emphasizing the meaning of Easter and calling for unity, solidarity and love among Syrians, in addition to condemning the recent terrorist bombing that targeted the people of Kefraya and al-Foua’a.

A similar ceremony was also held at the St. George Cathedral, presided upon by Syriac Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch and All East Mar Ignatius Aphram II, who said in his sermon hope that terrorism and injustice are bound to be defeated by the light of righteousness.

Armenian Orthodox Bishop of Damascus Armash Nalbandian also presided upon a mass at the Mar Serkis Church in Damascus, in which he delivered a sermon denouncing all forms of terrorism and aggression targeting Syria, while during the mass held at the Evangelical Church of Damascus, its Pastor Rev. Boutros Zaour said that Easter bears a message of rising above evil and injustice, and that Syria has been an example of coexistence, faith, and peace since the dawn of history.

Meanwhile in Aleppo, celebrations were limited to prayers and masses at churches in honor of the victims of the bombing that targeted the buses transporting the people of Kefraya and al-Foua’a.

Easter celebrations were held in churches across Syrian provinces, including the Lady of Annunciation Church in Daraa city, Mar Elias Church in Ezra’a, St. George Cathedral in Hasaka, the Archdiocese of Bosra, Horan, and Jabal al-Arab, in Jesus the King Church, and in the Good Shepherd Church in Sweida.

In Lattakia, masses and prayers were held in St. Nikolaus Church, St. George Cathedral, and the Virgin Mary Church, and in Hama and Tartous masses were held at the Greek Orthodox Archdioceses and in a number of churches, while in Homs prayers were held at Al-Arbaeen Church and other churches.

********

Melania Trump honors a Syrian Christian nun who then speaks truth to demonic power

"It's good to know the spirit of Jesus is still alive in the East, however hard we work to eradicate it." -- John F


From the Sic Semper Tyrannis comment section, posted at 3:00 AM on April 16:
johnf said...
It's Easter Sunday. Christ has arisen. Amid darkness, a light at Easter.
First Lady Melania Trump awarded the 2017 International Women of Courage Award to Sister Carolin Tahhan Fachakh of Syria during a ceremony at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C.
Sister Carolin had some decidedly awkward opinions of her own which she didn't hesitate to express:
"Sister Carolin Tahhan Fachakh of the Salesian Daughters of Mary Help of Christians, who runs a nursery school in Damascus, Syria, told reporters Tuesday that she “likes” the Syrian strongman [Syrian President Bashar al-Assad], and that he’s been very helpful and protective of Christians in the country...
Tahhan also said she believes there’s no truth to the reports that it was al-Assad who used Sarin gas to target a civilian population last week, an allegation which prompted the Trump administration to bomb a military base in Syria...
Tahhan described Trump’s decision to bomb the Shayrat Air Base, the alleged source of the chemical attack, as “a step back from peace.”
“Every time we say there is hope for peace, let’s move forward, something happens to set us back. The situation is ugly now...
Tahhan also said that she doubts al-Assad launched the chemical weapon attack in April because he knew the eyes of the world were on him and Syria, and that the threat of the U.S. or another country bombing as a response was real.
The sister regretted the fact that Syrian children are being raised in a “culture of war,” capable of distinguishing from their sound the difference between a cannon shot or a missile....
Therefore, together with other Franciscan sisters who run the school, they try to offer them a climate of peace and serenity, “where every child who is in need can play in the big courtyard and study.”
Asked about the international perception of al-Assad being a “monster” or a dictator, she responded: “I like our president. He’s very close to us, as is the first lady. They’re very close to the Church. Speak easily, call him a dictator, but to me, he’s not. We’re at ease.”...
Tahhan is not only defiantly against the portrait of al-Assad given in the West. She also challenges the perception that Muslims and Christians cannot coexist peacefully in Syria, saying that to this day, six years into the war, most still get along.
The problem, she said, is terrorism, not Islam.
Beyond the school for children, the Salesians in Baghdad also run a school to train women in sewing and tailoring. In the past 7 years, more than 500 woman have attended class.
“The majority are Muslims. If I said we would only choose Christians, then I would become a fanatic myself,” Tahhan said.
“When a missile falls or there’s an explosion,” she continued, “many Muslims knock on our door and ask, ‘Sister, are you OK? Do you need anything?'”
https://cruxnow.com/global-church/2017/04/12/syrian-nun-honored-us-says-assad-not-dictator/
It's good to know the spirit of Jesus is still alive in the East, however hard we work to eradicate it.
*** 
John's comment was in response to the April 15 post at SST by "Publius Tacitus," Video Evidence of False Claims Made in the White House Intelligence Report of April 11, 2017 by Ted Postol, which begins with these words:
Here is the third paper by Professor Emeritus Theodore "Ted" Postol on the alleged Syrian Government chemical weapons attack. To reiterate --there was no Syrian Government chemical weapon attack.
Video Evidence of False Claims Made in the White House Intelligence Report of April 11, 2017
Theodore A. Postol
Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology, and National Security Policy
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
This is my third report assessing the White House intelligence Report of April 11, 2017.
[...]
This report provides unambiguous evidence that the White House Intelligence Report (WHR) of April 11, 2017 contains false and misleading claims that could not possibly have been accepted in any professional review by impartial intelligence experts.
The WHR was produced by the National Security Council under the oversight of the National Security Advisor, Lieutenant General H. R. McMaster.
[...] 
Dr Postol's first report is titled A Quick Turnaround Assessment of the White House Intelligence Report Issued on April 11, 2017 about the Nerve Agent Attack in Khan Shaykhun, Syria.  

His second report is an addendum to the first one, which The Unz Review published in HTML along with the first report.

*********

Saturday, April 15

Foreign Fighters Flow into Syria

I think the numbers shown on the map may be very conservative estimates, and I doubt they cover the mercenaries hired by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc. to fight the Syrian army.  But they give a rough idea of the scope of the situation. From The Washington Post; the map is from October 2014; the text in the lower right lists small numbers of fighters that are from 11 countries not shown on the map. The small print is easier to read in the larger depiction of the map at the Post page: 
An estimated 15,000 militants from at least 80 nations are believed to have entered Syria to help overthrow the regime of President Bashar al-Assad according the CIA and studies by ISCR and The Soufan Group. Many of these fighters are believed to have joined units that are now part of the Islamic State.  Western officials are concerned about what these individuals may do upon returning to their native countries. Related story.Share on Facebook

Friday, April 14

MOAB: Mother Of Asinine Bombing tactics in Afghanistan

A MOAB is not a bunker buster; its main purpose is to kill all living creatures within a radius of a mile. Thus, Mr Trump's order to drop a MOAB on an area where Islamic State fighters were believed to be holed up in tunnels and caves in the A'Stan boonies. 

Assuming the $16 million bomb killed a few score IS fighters and several goats, sheep, horses, donkeys, birds, mice, foxes, snakes, tarantulas, scorpions and sundry bears, mongooses, wolves and rabbits, what would be the purpose of the U.S. continuing with the strategy of emptying the ocean with a sieve?

When it comes to terror groups in Afghanistan the enemy is thataway, Mr Trump, in Rawalpindi -- that's in a place called "Pakistan" -- and in a place called Riyadh. That's in Saudi Arabia. 

So you can drop all the MOABs you want; you can depopulate the bird and tarantula populations of Afghanistan, but "Isis" is just another lashkar as far as Rawalpindi is concerned. And that means if you kill off X number of Isis fighters, more fighters will take their place, War on Terrorism without end.  

As to what a lashkar is -- nevermind, Mr Trump. CENTCOM knows what it is; the Pentagon knows, the NATO command knows what it is, the British military knows. And the Afghan government knows.

Everyone knows except you.

By the way, if you think you can get off the hook by giving more authority to the American military and insinuating that someone else gave the order to drop a MOAB, I'd remind that you are the commander-in-chief of the United States of America. That is, unless you return to your own planet and take your chief war advisor Ivanka with you.

********

Thursday, April 13

"The Ultimate Harp Jam"


It's been many months since I last featured this historic harmonica improvisation -- maybe the best ever recorded, and featuring harp legends L.D. Miller (at right in the above still from the video) and Brendan Powers (at left), Christelle Berthon, and a 15 year old named Jay Gaunt. Miller beatboxed at the same time he was playing the harmonica.  

The jam was completely spontaneous; it came together at 3 AM after the 2009 SPAH convention in Sacramento California had wound up for the night. 

Big thanks to Noam Cohen for uploading the video to YouTube.

******** 

US report on Syrian chemical incident already looks like Swiss cheese


First Theodore Postol began poking holes in the report. Then "b" at Moon of Alabama took a few whacks at it. Robert Parry also got into the act. All we need now is some bread and mayonnaise. And the report has only been in the public eye for two days; a few more days of scrutiny by independent observers and we'll have creamed cheese.   

From b's very funny takedown, published yesterday at MoA, White House "Intelligence Assessment" Is No-Such-Thing: Shows Support for Al-Qaeda:

[...]

The claimed assessment starts with a definitely false claim: "We assess that Damascus launched this chemical attack in response to an opposition offensive in Hama province that threatened key infrastructure."

The Hama offensive had failed two weeks ago. Since then the Syrian army has regained all areas the al-Qaeda "opposition" had captured during the first few days. Key infrastructure had never been seriously threatened by it. Over 2,000 al-Qaeda fighters were killed in the endeavor.


Peto Lucem, a well known and reliable source for accurate maps of the war on Syria, posted on March 31, four days before the chemical incident:
Peto Lucem @PetoLucemNEW MAP: "Rebel" frontline in #Hama is collapsing, #SAA reverses most #AlQaeda gains made in first days of their failed offensive. #Syria
 
The attack in Hama had already failed days before the chemical incident in Khan Shaykhun happened. Khan Shaykhun is far from the front line. The incident and the failed al-Qaeda attack in Hama cannot possibly be related. It would make no sense at all to launch a militarily useless incident in a place far away "in response" to a defeat of the enemy elsewhere. (The Defense Intelligence Agency likely never signed off on such an objectively false claim.)

[...]

****
b was just getting warmed up. You should read the whole thing but I can't resist also quoting this part:
Several of the released videos [of purported victims of the chemical attack] were introduced and commented on by "Dr. Shajul Islam," who has been removed from the British medical registry and had been indicted in the UK for his role in kidnapping "western" journalists in Syria. He fled back to Syria. The videos he distributed of "rescued" casualties of the chemical incidents were not of real emergencies but staged. James Foley, one of the journalists kidnapped with the help of Dr. Shajul Islam, was later murdered on camera by the Islamic State.
So does this suggest that U.S. intelligence assessments in the Trump Era will be put together by imbeciles? Well, b makes the point that this wasn't a real intelligence briefing. But on the basis of findings that shouted 'fake,' President Trump rationalized launching missile strikes at a Syrian air base. That's scary when you stop to think about it.

********

And now a Syrian War sitrep from Russia's Ministry of Defense

The ambassador recalled that from the very beginning of the Western coalition's campaign of airstrikes, the territory controlled by the Daesh terrorists only grew. "Only after Russia came to assist us – following an official request from Damascus -- did we see progress. Then the terrorists began to retreat."

***

The Russian MoD presser was uploaded to YouTube on April 11. Click on the close captioning (CC) button on the YouTube screen to bring up the English translation.  

If at the end you say, 'This isn't what we're being told by our defense officials' -- Westerners aren't being told much of anything about Syria by their officials and media except a pack of lies. 

In his interview with a Ukrainian newspaper, which Sputnik reports on below, Syria's Ambassador to Ukraine glosses or omits serious political and economic problems in Syria prior to the uprising. But he's telling a damn sight more truth about the Syrian situation than most Western officials and reporters have done.  

"Assad must stay - A War Involving Fighters From 86 Countries Isn't a Civil War"
17:36 - 10.04.2017
Sputnik

Only days before the US made its decision to carry out cruise missile strikes against Syria, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley dug up some Obama-era rhetoric that Syrian President Bashar Assad must go. In response, Syrian Ambassador to Ukraine Hassan Haddur explained why the US pretext for toppling the Syrian government is completely nonsensical.

Last Monday, a day before the suspected chemical attack in the town of Khan Shaykhun in rebel-held Idlib province, and a few days more before the US launched dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Ash Sha'irat airbase in Homs province, Ambassador Haley told reporters that Syrians don't want Assad as president anymore.
Washington, she said, would find it unacceptable for Assad to remain president after elections. "We don't think the people want Assad anymore. We don't think he is going to be someone that people will want to have," Haley noted, indirectly responding to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's earlier comments that the president's status would be determined by the Syrian people. 
"We have no love for Assad. We've made that very clear. We think that he has been a hindrance to peace for a long time. He's a war criminal. What he's done to his people is nothing more than disgusting," Haley added, as if to preempt the rest of the week's events. The US immediately blamed the Syrian government for Tuesday's chemical attack, despite ample evidence that Damascus wasn't involved, and went on to rain cruise missiles down on the country just two days later.
Offering a detailed response to the UN envoy, Syrian diplomat Hassan Haddur explained to Ukraine's '2000' newspaper why Haley's opinion about the views of the 'Syrian people' has absolutely no merit.
For starters, Haddur pointed out that the war which Syria has suffered over six years couldn't really be classified as a civil war in the first place. "Civil wars take place within a country between people who live in that country. But kindly tell me, is it possible to consider a war in which terrorists from 86 countries take part a civil war?"
The diplomat recalled that in March 2011, at the very start of the unrest, Syria "did indeed see demonstrations. But these were peaceful protests, where legitimate demands were put forward. The state, I would like to stress, fulfilled everything that the protesters asked." This included the government's agreement to create a new constitution in 2012, including provisions for free elections, presidential term limits, the removal of the Ba'ath Party's monopoly on political life in the country, and guarantees to a series of social and political rights and freedoms.
Furthermore, Haddur emphasized that Syria had engaged in socio-economic reforms since the early 2000s, when President Bashar Assad first came to power. "By 2011, these reforms had made it possible for Syria to have essentially zero foreign debt. On the whole, progress had been felt in many areas of life. In addition, in 2011, Syria was among the top ten safest countries in the world. At that time, our country was able to almost completely ensure its food security, first of all in wheat. The same was true in the production of medicines: we provided for 95% of our own needs."
This was also true so far as rights, including women's rights, were concerned, the diplomat stressed. "The freedoms we have in our country relating to women – they do not exist in any other Arab country! Imagine it: in 2010 there were seven women ministers. There were many women representatives among politicians as well.
"Furthermore," Haddur recalled, "in our country, the representatives of various religious communities have always coexisted. After all, the representatives of over 29 nationalities live in Syria. And we were very proud of the fact that conditions had been created in our country – both cultural and religious -- for the representatives of all nationalities and communities."
Such a peaceful state of affairs had persisted in Syria for centuries, the diplomat added. "For this reason, there is no justification to the suggestion that the war currently taking place in Syria is a civil war, much less a religious one between supporters of different denominations."
Unfortunately, Haddur lamented, the government's concessions in 2011 and 2012 did not lead to the abatement of protests, which had instead begun to turn violent. He emphasized that foreign powers would eventually contribute immense amounts of money and resources toward destabilizing the country.
Many foreign powers were involved, the official said, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Western powers. Their tactics included the recruitment of agents among Syrian officials, sometimes even high-ranking officials, to participate in the country's destabilization in the very first days of the conflict.
The 'foundation' for the opposition quickly became Wahhabi Islam, Haddur added. "On the eve of the war, the extremist Wahhabi current of Islam became more active in Saudi Arabia. They adhere to the following rule: that Muslims who do not support Wahhabism are apostates. Many Syrians worked in Saudi Arabia over many years, and when they came home, they were to a greater or lesser extent carriers of this radical religious current."
Furthermore, the diplomat stressed, when the crisis began to turn violent, "Saudi Arabia whipped up huge resources to spread this [strain of Islam] in Syria, mainly in those regions where people had low levels of education. In time, this led to a situation where a number of people for whom a state of [religious] war became a normal state of affairs."
There were geo-economic considerations for foreign involvement too, Haddur added, particularly among the Gulf monarchies seeking to lay oil and gas pipelines through Syria.
"Indeed, shortly before the [2011] events began, Qatar made a proposal to lay a pipeline through our territory to Europe. Here I would like to note that Syria has its own gas and oil resources. And the Syrian government cannot make decisions or approve proposals from outside which are contrary to our national interests. Along with Qatar, we received offers from other countries. The Qatari offer was actually less lucrative than the others. But in rejecting these proposals, we were governed by the central principle: first and foremost to protect the interests of our country."
The ambassador also stressed that then, as now, the main agent among the powers pushing the 'Assad must go' narrative was the US. "Before the start of the Syrian events, the voice of the US was the strongest in the world. It's really no secret who had the most interest in seeing a change of power in Egypt, Libya, Yemen or Iraq."
Emphasizing just how insulting the US's regime change rhetoric really is, Haddur suggested that "it would be interesting to see how the people of the United States, France or the United Kingdom would react if someone came from outside and said: your president must go. After all, posing such a question is not only a geopolitical or economic consideration. It is a sign of disrespect for the people of the country where a change of power is sought."
Haddur stressed that the so-called 'Friends of Syria Group', the collective of Western and Gulf countries supporting President Assad's ouster, "had held [numerous] discussions, from the very start, on the possibilities for war, rather than on how to avoid the conflict. They attempted to implement the US plan for dividing the country. Factually, these 'friends' are participants in a large-scale conspiracy against us. The number of terrorists, according to our calculations, is about 150,000 persons."
"As for the so-called international coalition, it's worth recalling that everything that it's doing, including the bombing of Syrian territory, is aggression against our government, the violation of our territorial integrity." The ambassador recalled that from the very beginning of the Western coalition's campaign of airstrikes, the territory controlled by the Daesh terrorists only grew. "Only after Russia came to assist us – following an official request from Damascus, did we see progress. Then the terrorists began to retreat."
Israel too has played an active role in seeking to depose Syria's government, the diplomat explained. [Pundita note:  I think this was very recent; for years Israel wanted Assad to remain in power on the argument that his replacement would be much worse. It's only since Israel has become very worried about large numbers of Shiite Iranians settling into Syria that they've taken a hard line against Assad.]  "The policy of this country is undoubtedly aimed at expanding its territories. For Syria, Israel is an aggressor country. Their occupation of the Golan Heights is confirmed by Israeli officials themselves. Even now, numerous reports in the media (both Western and in the Middle East) show that Israeli hospitals are providing medical support to the militants. In doing so, they are supporting the terrorists fighting in Syria."
Commenting on President Assad's recent expression of hope that the Syrian war would come to an end in the near future, Haddur stressed that this will be possible only when foreign support for the terrorists comes to an end.
"The war in Syria will end only when those who have come from abroad and who are fighting on the territory of our state no longer receive foreign support. If the UN Security Council demands that the borders with Syria are closed, preventing the entry of militants into our country, the war will end very quickly. If, as now, the border with Turkey is not blocked off, and 50,000 militants come to Syria from the country, and tomorrow another 10,000 will come, and the next day even more, then the war will go on forever."
Nonetheless, "of course, we hope for the best. Of course, we expect that the war will end, and that peace will come," the ambassador concluded.
Commenting on Friday morning's cruise missile strikes, Syrian military expert Hasan Hasan told Sputnik Arabic that unfortunately, "their purpose is not to end the war, but to see the further escalation of the conflict."
For his part, Ali Ahmed, an advisor to the Syrian Information Minister, lamented that the cruise missile attack was part and parcel of the "framework of a common aggressive policy against Syria –pushing for the creation of a 'New Middle East', controlled chaos, and Tel Aviv's interests."
Still, Ahmed stressed that he was confident that Syria would not suffer the same fate as Iraq or Libya. "It was possible to rip apart these countries after the destruction of their state institutions. Syria, in spite of a protracted war and the presence of hundreds of thousands of militants on its territory, continues to preserve its territorial integrity. Salaries are paid on time, even to those in terrorist-controlled areas. Educational and medical institutions continue their work. In the north, wheat is being grown, agriculture is lively.
[END REPORT]
********

Wednesday, April 12

Top CW expert shreds fake US report on Khan Shaykhun chemical incident

UPDATE 
See also my April 24 post, A neuropharmacologist debunks use of sarin in the Khan Shaykhun incident.  The evidence presented is staggering when one considers the number of governments and news organizations that have ignored the true symptoms of sarin poisoning.

END UPDATE

“We again have a situation where the White House has issued an obviously false, misleading and amateurish intelligence report."

I thought it was only a matter of days before chemical weapons experts would start punching holes in the White House "intelligence" briefing that SecDef James Mattis used yesterday to rationalize the bombing of a Syrian air base. I was wrong; it turned out that it was a matter of hours. 

Sic Semper Tyrannis has published part of a letter that Theodore A. Postol, scientist and Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology, and National Security Policy at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, sent to SST and other media sources in which he lays out his initial comments on the American claims about the chemical incident. But here I'm going to feature the RT news report on Postol's letter because it omits almost all Postol's technical discussion and just succinctly describes his initial conclusions.

For those who want all the technical details first, here is the link to a copy of Postol's letter, uploaded by RT America to Scribd.   

There will surely be more from Postol, who was just providing a rapid-response assessment, and from other experts on chemical weapons. But while the U.S. press might be able to hide the truth from the American public for a time, you may trust that Postol's analysis is already the shot heard round world capitals. To understand why, here is a passage from the Wikipedia article about him:
He received his undergraduate degree in physics and his PhD in nuclear engineering from MIT. Postol worked at Argonne National Laboratory, where he studied the microscopic dynamics and structure of liquids and disordered solids using neutron, X-ray and light scattering techniques, along with molecular dynamics simulations . He also worked at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, where he studied methods of basing the MX missile, and later worked as a scientific adviser to the Chief of Naval Operations.
After leaving the Pentagon, Postol helped build a program at Stanford University to train mid-career scientists to study weapons technology in relation to defense and arms control policy.
In 1990, Postol received the Leo Szilard Prize from the American Physical Society. In 1995, he received the Hilliard Roderick Prize from the American Association for the Advancement of Science and in 2001, he received the Norbert Wiener Award from Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility for "uncovering numerous and important false claims about missile defenses."
On September 28, 2016 the Federation of American Scientists awarded Professor Theodore Postol ... their annual Richard L. Garwin Award for his work in assessing and critiquing the U.S. government's claims about missile defense.
One note before I turn to RT's report: the Russian and Syrian governments did themselves no favors by rushing to provide a 'counter-narrative' to the early American claims about the chemical incident. While they knew the Syrian air force hadn't deployed a chemical weapon, it was obvious they weren't sure of just what had happened. That's why they should have waited for the scientists to untangle the situation. I know this approach would have been hard but not half as hard as having to walk back a muddled explanation.

White House claims on Syria chemical attack "obviously false" – MIT Professor Emeritus
12 April, 2017 17:18
RT

A professor who challenged the 2013 claims of a chemical attack in Syria is now questioning the Trump administration’s narrative blaming the Assad government for the April 4 attack in the Idlib province town of Khan Shaykhun.

On Tuesday, the White House released a declassified intelligence brief accusing Syrian President Bashar Assad of ordering and organizing the attack, in which Syrian planes allegedly dropped chemical ordnance on civilians in the rebel-held town.

The report “contains absolutely no evidence that this attack was the result of a munition being dropped from an aircraft,” wrote Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Professor Theodore Postol, who reviewed it and put together a 14-page assessment, which he provided to RT on Wednesday.

“I believe it can be shown, without doubt, that the document does not provide any evidence whatsoever that the US government has concrete knowledge that the government of Syria was the source of the chemical attack in Khan Shaykhun,” wrote Postol.


A chemical attack with a nerve agent did occur, he said, but the available evidence does not support the US government’s conclusions.

“I have only had a few hours to quickly review the alleged White House intelligence report. But a quick perusal shows without a lot of analysis that this report cannot be correct,” Postol wrote.

It is “very clear who planned this attack, who authorized this attack and who conducted this attack itself,” Defense Secretary James Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon on Tuesday.

Earlier in the day, White House spokesman Sean Spicer also said that doubting the evidence would be “doubting the entire international reporting crew documenting this.”

The report offered by the White House, however, cited “a wide body of open-source material” and “social media accounts” from the rebel-held area, including footage provided by the White Helmets rescue group documented to have ties with jihadist rebels, Western and Gulf Arab governments.

Postol was not convinced by such evidence.

“Any competent analyst would have had questions about whether the debris in the crater was staged or real,” he wrote. “No competent analyst would miss the fact that the alleged sarin canister was forcefully crushed from above, rather than exploded by a munition within it.”

Instead, “the most plausible conclusion is that the sarin was dispensed by an improvised dispersal device made from a 122mm section of rocket tube filled with sarin and capped on both sides.”


“We again have a situation where the White House has issued an obviously false, misleading and amateurish intelligence report,” he concluded, recalling the 2013 situation when the Obama administration claimed Assad had used chemical weapons against the rebels in Ghouta, near Damascus.

“What the country is now being told by the White House cannot be true,” Postol wrote, “and the fact that this information has been provided in this format raises the most serious questions about the handling of our national security.”

On Tuesday, Russian General Staff spokesman Colonel-General Sergey Rudskoy questioned the “authenticity” of media reports concerning the attack. He said that using social media to reconstruct the course of events raised “serious doubts” not only among the Russian military but also “among many respected experts and organizations.”

Rudskoy noted that, under the 2013 agreement to give up its chemical weapons, the Syrian government destroyed its stockpiles at 10 sites that were under its control. This was verified by the Organization for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). However, the remaining two facilities were in territory controlled by the rebels, he said, and it remains unclear what happened to the chemicals stored there.


[...]

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SecDef James Mattis mistakes sarin gas for cheese tostitos

UPDATE 
See also my April 24 post, A neuropharmacologist debunks use of sarin in the Khan Shaykhun incident.  The evidence presented is staggering when one considers the number of governments and news organizations that have ignored the true symptoms of sarin poisoning.  The evidence makes it impossible for me to give Gen. Mattis the benefit of the doubt, as I did in this earlier post. 
END UPDATE

Questions for Secretary Mattis. Assume it was indeed sarin gas that was released in Khan Shaykhun, as the U.S. intelligence briefing that you referenced yesterday claims. What kind of sarin? Homemade sarin? Military-grade sarin? Now how would you be able to tell the difference between the two?

The answer is that you don't know how because if you knew, you would not have attested that the Syrian government was responsible for a sarin attack in Khan Shaykhun.

Unless you were lying; that is, you were aware of the kind of investigation it would take to demonstrate the claim and so knew that between the date of the chemical incident and the ordering of a US bombing of a Syrian air base, there wasn't enough time for an investigation. 

If you were lying, you were taking advantage of the public's ignorance of how investigations of chemical weapons proceed. And, I suppose, hoping that a compliant news media wouldn't highlight the explanations from any chemical weapons experts who debunked the briefing you referenced.

As to the other explanation -- ignorance -- just how much intelligence does it take for a person to realize he's out of his depth? So even if it didn't occur to you that analyzing a chemical weapon might be more complicated than analyzing, say, the chemical composition of cheese tostitos, you do know how to use a phone to call for advice, do you not?

For those who want to gain an idea of what it takes to analyze a chemical weapon and determine its provenance, study David Habakkuk's Sentence First, Verdict Afterwards; April 9,2017, Sic Semper Tyrannis. I warn that the paper is not easy reading but at the least you'll learn from it that analyzing a chemical weapon is a lengthy, complicated process. 

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