Electric Vehicles No Threat To Oil Prices Anytime Soon
[Here I'm skipping over a lot of other important information to get to the following bullet points]:
• Are EV’s really green? There has been much written about this subject but it doesn’t make headlines. You have to hunt for it. In an article in wired.com on March of 2016 the writer questioned whether or not Tesla was really environmentally friendly.
If you recharge with coal-fired electricity, the emissions are higher than burning gasoline. The vehicles must be lighter to extend battery life so they require a lot of high performance metals, which is hardly environmentally benign to produce (more on lithium later).
A researcher [quoted in the Wired article] wrote, “…the greenhouse gas emissions footprint of electric vehicles can be pretty high on the front end, as they’re being built. We’re shifting pollution, and in the process we’re hoping that it doesn’t have the environmental impact”.
Then there’s the safe disposal of the battery after it dies and the local landfill is not the place. In June the Montreal Economic Institute released a report that claimed subsidizing EVs was “an inefficient way to reduce CO2 emissions”.
A spokesman said, “It’s just a waste. Not only do these programs costs taxpayers a fortune, but they also have little effect on GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions”.
The study claimed current subsidies in Quebec and Ontario, driven by lofty public government ambitions to grow EV use significantly, cost taxpayers Cdn$523 per tonne of reduced carbon emissions in Ontario and Cdn$288 in Quebec. The cap and trade system Ontario is adopting, mirroring that in California, taxes carbon at Cdn$18 per tonne. Alberta’s new carbon tax, which the NDP are selling as a first step in saving the planet from climate change, is Cdn$20.
• Beware of looming electricity and lithium shortages. When Bloomberg did its analysis [see first part of article] it predicted, “Electricity consumption from EVs will grow to 1,800 terawatt-hours in 2040, or 5 percent of global power demand, from 6 terawatt-hours in 2016”.
This is a staggering 3,000 percent increase.
Where will it come from? Better not be coal or possibly even natural gas. At a conference held April 3 in Calgary sponsored by ARC Energy Research Institute (AERI) a representative of Bruce Power, the Ontario nuclear electricity generator, said to economically reduce carbon emissions, recharging EVs only made sense at night, not during peak load hours. If everybody drove their EVs to work and tried to plug in at the office it would overload the system.
Meanwhile, there is speculation whether the world has enough lithium to build all the batteries skyrocketing EV growth would ensure.
One analyst has predicted lithium shortages as soon as 2023 and have already delayed Tesla’s output.
The solution, which is not all bad for the oil industry, is dual fuel whereby the battery is smaller, the lithium required per vehicle is lower, and mobility is augmented by a smaller ICE using good old-fashioned gasoline.
On to the other Oilprice article --
Electric Car Boom On Hold As Key Ingredient Vanishes