Sunday, July 31

Two Syrian War Sitreps

FARS Sunday reports:

Syrian Army, Air Force Hit ISIL's Gathering Centers Hard in Deir Ezzur

Russian Fighter Jets Bomb Heavily Terrorists' Positions in Aleppo's Districts

Syrian Soldiers Smash Terrorists in Eastern Sweida

Syrian Army Storms Terrorists' Arms Smuggling Route to Dara'a City

Syria in Last 24 Hours: Terrorists Sustain Heavy Losses in Army Offensive in Damascus Countryside

Col. Pat Lang starts by quoting reports from AMN (Al Masdar News) and SouthFront, then delivers his sitrep:
For those of you who are interested in such things I offer the following observations concerning today's Syrian situation.
The R+6 [coalition of forces with Syrian Army] encirclement of East Aleppo grows ever more solid.  All counter-attacks intended to break the cordon have failed.  
South Front thinks that the next SAA [Syrian Arab Army] move will be to try to take Kafr Hamra just outside the encirclement to the NW.  Evidently the rebels have been using this place for firing positions for indirect harassing fire into the government and YPG south of Kafr Hamra.  It is easy to see why they would want to do that but they should expect this effort to be a focal point for more counter-attacks. 
There will be other counter-attacks intended to break through to East Aleppo but Kafr Hamra is likely to be a main effort for the rebels.
In other reporting cited above it is noted that the rebels are pulling a lot of their men off the western Latakia front where they have been very engaged with R+6. These are among the forces that will undoubtedly be thrown into counter-attacks at Aleppo City. 
The decision on the part of the rebels to strip their western Latakia front is IMO indicative of rebel and/or Turkish belief that the outcome at Aleppo will be politically decisive in the outcome of the war especially in the context of the desperate internal situation now faced by Turkey. 
Surrenders of non-jihadi rebels now in the city are being facilitated by the government.  That is likely to remove many fighter from the contest.
The civilian population flow out of East Aleppo has begun and will probably grow larger and larger. pl 

My comment is that just within a week or two there seems have occurred a tremendous turnaround in Turkey's position on Syria. Only time will tell whether this will last or whether Erdogan is on the level. But at the moment the news in that regard is heartening.


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